Iranian Space program

[PeeD]

Its a quite large 800-850kg third stage with 6 thrusters. Not a Arash-24, 240kg small kick motor.

 

[Galactic Penguin SST]

There is a problem with google translation of the article. The correction:

“IRGC is trying to smooth out and downplay its space launch capacity by separating Nour and the third stage.”

2. The title is made up by you and the article does not say Iran getting closer to NK or China.

3. Official statement is that “Salman was successfully tested”. If it reentered the earth, it did its job successfully and reentered as planned.
.......

No translation problem, the article clearly stated that Iran is not as advanced as North Korea:

اگر سپاه بتواند موشک‌های بالستیک با سوخت جامد و پرتابگرهای متحرک را توسعه دهد، به روسیه، چین و کره شمالی می‌پیوندد که تنها کشورهای جهان با موشک‌های بالستیکِ متحرک هستند. حتی ایالات متحده نیز فاقد موشک‌های متحرک است که به حملات غافلگیرکننده اختصاص دارند.

If the IRGC can develop solid-fuel ballistic missiles and mobile launchers, it will join Russia, China and North Korea, which are the only countries in the world with mobile ballistic missiles. Even the United States lacks mobile missiles dedicated to surprise attacks.

http://web.archive.org/web/20200608...-در-پیشرفت-موشکی-به-روسیه-و-چین-نزدیک-شده-است
http://archive.vn/7Ejtq

Because this is simply the truth. And we all know why.

Because North Korea has already an all-solid-propellant ballistic missile:

Indeed, satellite image have caught a new 16 m long object at North Korea’s Sinpo South Shipyard, taken on 27th May 2020.

http://archive.is/vgbFs/8d873a0460e74a407c6f73429e7431bf6252793f.jpg ; https://archive.is/vgbFs/8b5f7239ab449215a8e7da94299aac42d5ddcaf1/scr.png ; http://web.archive.org/web/20200604...Sinpo-Upd-20-0529_20-0527-Planet-1024x986.jpg
▲ 1. Satellite image of a new 16 m long object at North Korea’s Sinpo South Shipyard, taken on 27th May 2020.

By expanding the Pukguksong-3 SLBM image to the size of the new satellite imagery's object, that is 16 meter long, is was confirmed that a launch tube of such dimension could perfectly carry inside an upsized SLBM, called Pukguksong-4:

http://archive.vn/Y3OzJ/e2a4733736f8facccf2c1b5893deb906d0a7b9cf.jpg ; https://archive.vn/Y3OzJ/5ac00689bd8f33dc8485cb1d4df259162845badc/scr.png ; http://web.archive.org/web/20200610090459/https://i.imgur.com/oJByOVb.jpg
▲ 2. North Korean Pukguksong-3 and Pukguksong-4 SLBM.

TAGS:
BGUSAT, Kwangmyongsong-4, GOSAT-2, Yaogan 25A/25B/25C, FIA-Radar 5, KWANGMYONGSONG R/B

 

[VEVAK]

While Iran has currently only one Salman rocket stage orbiting the earth, but with no published pictures on the internet to this day, North Korea has two since 2012 and 2016.

And one of them even imaged as late as last night!

The Kwangmyongsong space rocket's 3rd stage, photographed here from close range in its horizontal assembly and processing building of Sohae Space Center, with a much larger diameter of 1.25 m (Salman R/B ~0.9 m), that is similar to the Safir-1 space launcher, and launched on 7th February 2016 with the 200 kg heavy payload Kwangmyongsong-4 earth observation satellite into a Sun Synchronous Orbit:

http://archive.is/4HeF6/f7025caf473d8bc21f3546b361aea6474f75cb16.jpg ; https://archive.is/4HeF6/e337bcf9401f4f29249758187fae811774f56d7e/scr.png ; http://web.archive.org/web/20200603...data/jajuilbo_com/201602/2016021558459351.jpg ; http://archive.vn/rDMVm ; http://www.jajusibo.com/sub_read.html?uid=25927
▲ 1. Kwangmyongsong space rocket's 3rd stage, launched on 7th February 2016.



The predicted pass, as emerging from the earth shadow:

http://archive.vn/sbH7S/170b6093ef49259b19a942e9a701addb00d950f4.jpg ; https://archive.vn/sbH7S/e1fe2f4a1ddf17b67a7800a007b1ffb658da28d4/scr.png ; http://web.archive.org/web/20200603210940/https://i.imgur.com/iPyf0AW.jpg
▲ 2. Kwangmyongsong space rocket's 3rd stage predicted pass.

But as previoulsy feared last week, photographed under very difficult environmental conditions caused by a Moon illuminated at 88.8%, a hot and hazy sky, producing the most annoying intense bright white sky background (removed before upload), and resulting in a very poorly contrasted faint trace of the rocket stage's pass of an estimated magnitude dimmer than 8, but revealing nonetheless a clear brightess variation (rotation) with a peak-to-peak of about ~7 seconds.

As imaged from a 450 kilometer range last night (calibrated with astrometry.net):

http://archive.vn/ikMGy/9184666a0755156ebe10c708ddf9f4c700b2c10e.jpg ; https://archive.vn/ikMGy/87cb7fee6a03f86f984fc43ddd2d085778391aa6/scr.png ; http://web.archive.org/web/20200603211028/http://nova.astrometry.net/annotated_full/4287095 ; http://nova.astrometry.net/annotated_full/4287095 ; http://web.archive.org/web/20200603211224/http://nova.astrometry.net/user_images/3721577#annotated ; http://archive.vn/iLZyx
▲ 3. Kwangmyongsong space rocket's 3rd stage, as imaged from a 450 kilometer range last night.

TAGS:
BGUSAT, Kwangmyongsong-4, GOSAT-2, Yaogan 25A/25B/25C, FIA-Radar 5, KWANGMYONGSONG R/B

Lack of any photos simply proves the IRGC's strength in controlling information! At the end of the day this is a Military Project and the idea that Iran's Aerospace Forces should go around publishing photos for trolls on the internet is rater ABSURD!

As for your confusion about the locatioin of IRGC's Noor sat that's your problem and your issue because the IRGC is sure as hell not confused about the location of it's own sat!

MOST importantly, this launch was more about testing the upper stages than anything else and that's why they used a standard Qadr rocket for the 1st stage booster! And only a fool would think Iran would stick a highly advanced and expensive sat atop a 1st ever launch of a test platform! So this is simply a stepping stone for Iran & NOT the end all be all of all Iranian SLV's!

 

[Shawnee]

Its a quite large 800-850kg third stage with 6 thrusters. Not a Arash-24, 240kg small kick motor.

How do you estimate the weight of the third stage and what is your estimation for Salman’s weight? Is that a carbon fiber educated guess or a steel one?

We know there are two versions of Salman with different weights. Did you imply it is Salman 2?

Do you imply that we just placed 900 kg in the orbit? Why is there no tracking report of the third stage now?
I am personally confused.

From day 1, I wanted to hear more about the third stage and there is little report. Silence.

How much do you agree with this analysis:

http://www.b14643.de/Spacerockets_1/Rest_World/Qased-IRGC/Description/Frame.htm
.......

 

[PeeD]

Brugge is not far off and both of our analysis is not just based on guess.
He has about the same results as I on many points.
His payload estimate is too low because he estimated a 150kg fairing/shroud which is too heavy for this diameter.

The way to analyse it, is to look at the delta v Salman produces (known from the published graph). Based on it we know ~900kg heavy "something" sits on top of it (sat, guidance system, adapter, fairing, kick stage and gas thruster "bus").

The upper stage orbited and must be still in orbit.

Side effect of this analysis is that the performance of the Salman is now known and it is very high.

btw. there is just one Salman variant known.

 

[Shawnee]

Brugge is not far off and both of our analysis is not just based on guess.
He has about the same results as I on many points.
His payload estimate is too low because he estimated a 150kg fairing/shroud which is too heavy for this diameter.

The way to analyse it, is to look at the delta v Salman produces (known from the published graph). Based on it we know ~900kg heavy "something" sits on top of it (sat, guidance system, adapter, fairing, kick stage and gas thruster "bus").

The upper stage orbited and must be still in orbit.

Side effect of this analysis is that the performance of the Salman is now known and it is very high.

btw. there is just one Salman variant known.

Thanks for your reply.
Your analysis means that we just placed 900 kg in the 450 km orbit and then silence. No outrage from US. Interesting!

Mashregh analysis is 100-300 estimation of total payload.

http://www.b14643.de/Spacerockets_1/Rest_World/Qased-IRGC/Gallery/Kick_2.JPG

Brugge did mention 800 kg weight in his estimation for the third stage and he thinks it probably looks like this:

Based on Salman pictures, it looks like there are two variants. This is not official or proven and is only forum based speculations.
............
Fabian Hinz uses this image to describe the third stage:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1253808257920983041

.........

 

[PeeD]

It will look like this:

This should be a old mock-up of what the Saman+kickstage should have looked.

As for payload estimation: Depends on miniaturization level
If guidance and batteries weight just 50kg total, payload fairing just 50kg, and cold gas thruster assembly under 50kg... then yes even over 100kg payload would be possible, but these are parameters that are hard to estimate accurately.

 

[Shawnee]

It will look like this:

This should be a old mock-up of what the Saman+kickstage should have looked.

As for payload estimation: Depends on miniaturization level
If guidance and batteries weight just 50kg total, payload fairing just 50kg, and cold gas thruster assembly under 50kg... then yes even over 100kg payload would be possible, but these are parameters that are hard to estimate accurately.

This is what Brugge thinks too.

Here is the original article from Peter Pry.

https://www.newsmax.com/t/newsmax/article/966149/366

.......

 

[TheImmortal]

It will look like this:

This should be a old mock-up of what the Saman+kickstage should have looked.

As for payload estimation: Depends on miniaturization level
If guidance and batteries weight just 50kg total, payload fairing just 50kg, and cold gas thruster assembly under 50kg... then yes even over 100kg payload would be possible, but these are parameters that are hard to estimate accurately.

Are you saying out of the 900KG third stage only 100-200KG was the actual satellite (Noor)?

 

[PeeD]

The third stage had to provide over 2500m/s delta v.

So from that 900kg Salman lifts 800-850kg must be spend on the thrid stage and all the equipment. What remains is 50kg with a large error margin of +100kg or -20kg.

50kg sounds realistic.

That Peter Pry is far off with his numbers.

 

[Shawnee]

The third stage had to provide over 2500m/s delta v.

So from that 900kg Salman lifts 800-850kg must be spend on the thrid stage and all the equipment. What remains is 50kg with a large error margin of +100kg or -20kg.

50kg sounds realistic.

That Peter Pry is far off with his numbers.

What do you think the function of the third stage is now? Can it have other functions beside navigating around?
........

 

[TheImmortal]

The third stage had to provide over 2500m/s delta v.

So from that 900kg Salman lifts 800-850kg must be spend on the thrid stage and all the equipment. What remains is 50kg with a large error margin of +100kg or -20kg.

50kg sounds realistic.

That Peter Pry is far off with his numbers.

https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1111&context=smallsat

This paper describes a 6U cube sat mass as max 12KG.

So where do you get 50KG based on a 6U Cube Sat outlay? (outside your margin of error)

 

[PeeD]

So where do you get 50KG based on a 6U Cube Sat outlay? (outside your margin of error)

I work with the delta v's "leaked" in the Salman video for my analysis. Real calculation.

What do you think the function of the third stage is now? Can it have other functions beside navigating around?

Dead scrap, it did its purpose of delivering 2500m/s delta v.

 

[Draco.IMF]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1274662382028165122

 

[skyshadow]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1274662382028165122

wow i hope they mean operational