Iranian Chill Thread

[Stryker1982]

I disagree. Iran is not some civil-war bound banana republic. These riots are just another days work. They will be gone soon and the instigators will be processed after. The IRI is dealing with this brilliantly.

Right now these riots are not very large to be honest, with a depth of a few hundred people at most but spread wide across the country. Makes it seem bigger than it really is.

As for actually being a threat to the Islamic Republic, chances are very very low without more people simply speaking. You don't get revolution by burning police cars and trash bins in the street, you have to take objectives, airports, police stations, government centers, non of which has been done and will even be possible since they are probably guarded.

In the revolution of 79" their was actual plan, and objective completion step by step, which is not seen today

This feel more like a "week of rage" rather than an actually tangible ability to do revolution, sort of like a BLM riot. Also chances of civil war is very low. I don't anticipate it of lasting unless more people join in which can have a snow ball effect.

I still believe, they need to make some serious changes.

 

[Surenas]

 

[Stryker1982]

Thing is, a total departure from theocratic government will be a double-edged sword for Iran itself. Iran today is safe surrounded by buffer zones created by allied Shia areas around us. At the time of revolution the biggest threat came from Baathists in Iraq, over the time Shia and Kurdish political strategy made sure that the threat got neutralized. We would have got a Qatari/Turkish/Saudi installed government in Syria attacking our created Iraqi Shiite government had we not got a militant ally in Iraqi Shias, Alawites and Hezbollah. Why is KSA not retaliating against Iran? We have given them an eternal hell called Shiite Houthis in Yemen. There is a buffer zone in Afghanistan too in form of the Northern Alliance which includes Persian speaking Tajiks and Shia Afghan groups. So if we just re-brand our government as a secular democracy these groups will become headless and be taken out one by one by our regional enemies. We will become another benign middle eastern country with oil and debt. Will we be safe after this or our current enemies will come for us smelling blood ? Akhoonds have mastered this buffer area strategy. Authors like Vali Nasr, Afshin Molavi give them credit for keeping Iran safe in the most dire times in the region. Imagine at one time there was Civil war in Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, KSA was getting Ballistic missiles on its head, Turkey was fighting PKK, Israel was fighting wars with Hezbollah, Hamas .... yet we were safe and sound. So credit must be given where its due. They have also done some very good things, they did not let the Iranian military loose its edge in the region. STEM Education kept improving to the point that Iranian ranking in R&D boosted massively, industry kept growing too though not at the expected pace. Diplomatic relations with friends, and deterrent threatening behavior towards enemies across PG and in NW was maintained too.

What you are saying seems more like the political strategies created by the IRGC and people like Zohrevand who devise strategies and goals. Akhoonds do not have wide spread knowledge on these matters. They don't have the foresight of people like Bagheri and Zohrevand, nor do they know anything about military industry. They spend their whole life reading Quran, they don't know anything else. No akhoond is known for devising strategies like Soleimani or even close.

I see total chaos after the death of SL, there will be political piss contests that enemies of Iran will try to exploit to max. Islamic Iran knows no other leader than Khomeini or Khamenei. The void will be big which won't be filled by anyone easily and may even lead to the collapse of theocratic style government. What happens then will be the collapse of the regional buffer zones we created, next step our own territorial integrity will be challenged from NW. Hence the transition must be smooth and as nonchaotic as possible. IRGC will need to play its role as the guardian of the revolution. They had a perfect leader too but he is gone now and we ironically have no leader in Iran post SL that can rally the nation. When I see these protestors I see this future of Iran where these street riots will become a norm and there won't be leadership to tackle it. Enemies have not so far invested heavily in these cracks but they will once the SL and his trusted structure will be gone.

Any idea who is in the potential line up? What are the odds that Mojtaba takes over considering the fact that he is already running the show.

 

[Dariush the Great]

Soleimani will be forever our hero despite his religious views, someone defending our borders against external enemies will be always loved by the nation.

That being said, we still don't accept barbarian semit laws.

 

[Stryker1982]

But completely throw Iran under the bus as soon as the slight thing goes wrong and become mindless zombies.

Nope, people are just asking that their wives sisters and cousins not to be taken into a van and beaten because their clothing was not appealing to the power-hungry fashion police.
People also ask to solve corruption issues.

I guess that is asking for too much

 

[Dariush the Great]

Nope, people are just asking that their wives sisters and cousins not to be taken into a van and beaten because their clothing was not appealing to the power-hungry fashion police.
People also ask to solve corruption issues.

I guess that is asking for too much

I would suggest fellow members to be careful of users with nationalistic names or posts that may seem patriotic. Behind the veil is the usual fat, ugly hezbollahi trying to brainwash people by posing as communist,nationalist, atheist etc.

 

[_Nabil_]

The chance of a strong earthquake hitting Tehran and destroying the capital is at least a million times more likely than a civil war. Unless you suffer from severe drug dependent paranoia, like you might do, you shouldn't be afraid of it.

Of all the ways that Iran can fall apart, a civil war is the last.

Nonsense, tell this to Bashar, Gaddafi, Zine el Abiddine Ben Ali, Mubarak, ...

Iran is even much weaker than those countries rules by dictators for decades, none of those countries have the actuals problems of Iran ( internal and external) and yet they falled to orchestred revolutions.

I'm sure right now, Bin Salman, Biden, Netanyahoo, Erdugan, ... are happy and working on how to finance, support, arm, any form of wider protests.

I would have backed Iranians if they protest In millions against corruption, unemployment, lack of healthcare, ... but those protests for 2c in fuel prices and a so called girl "killed" when nothing is clear as the video has showed.

Your country, your destiny, ... you are free to **** it up, but just don't cry rivers later when your country at best scenario will be like actual Syria.

 

[aryobarzan]

@drmeson

SL is 83...why he does not transfer power to the next SL while he is still alive..There will be less chaos if he does that...or is he so content with the perks of the power that he can not let go...which is a good sign of how dictators behave....what good an 83 year old is to rule a complicated country such as Iran...and yes ,I agree with you that IR has done many good things for Iranian security but I am surprised how they fu*k it all up for some primitive issues such as hijab or women attendances in football stadium...

 

[Dariush the Great]

Nonsense, tell this to Bashar, Gaddafi, Zine el Abiddine Ben Ali, Mubarak, ...

Iran is even much weaker than those countries rules by dictators for decades, none of those countries have the actuals problems of Iran ( internal and external) and yet they falled to orchestred revolutions.

I'm sure right now, Bin Salman, Biden, Netanyahoo, Erdugan, ... are happy and working on how to finance, support, arm, any form of wider protests.

I would have backed Iranians if they protest In millions against corruption, unemployment, lack of healthcare, ... but those protests for 2c in fuel prices and a so called girl "killed" when nothing is clear as the video has showed.

Your country, your destiny, ... you are free to **** it up, but just don't cry rivers later when your country at best scenario will be like actual Syria.

Your input here is by me (and for sure other Iranian members) appreciated as long it is about fight against Israel. Other than that, kindly do not intervene in our country's affairs through such comments. Suddenly jumping in the middle and claiming Iran risking to become Syria and accusing us to be ''weaker than all those countries'' is not the way to push for a healthy discussion.

And as last, your knowledge about Iran, and the fabric of its society is as good as my knowledge about Tunisia.

 

[QWECXZ]

Nonsense, tell this to Bashar, Gaddafi, Zine el Abiddine Ben Ali, Mubarak, ...

Iran is even very weaker than those countries rules by dictators for decades, none of those countries have the actuals problems of Iran ( internal and external) and yet they falled to orchestred revolutions.

I'm sure right now, Bin Salman, Biden, Netanyahoo, Erdugan, ... are happy and working on how to finance, support, arm, any form of wider protests.

I would have backed Iranians if they protest I millions against corruption, unemployment, lack of healthcare, ... but those protests for 2c in fuel prices and a so called girl "killed" when nothing is clear as the video has showed.

Your country, your destiny, ... you are free to **** it up, but just don't cry rivers later when your country at best scenario will be like actual Syria.

Please don't compare banana Arab republics established by the British empire by the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire or by the French to Iran.
Iran does not have the same demographics similar to any of these countries, with a completely different culture, sense of nationalism and history.

Syria is split between Sunnis, Alawites and Christians. Syrians do have a sense of nationalism, it's demographics that was the issue.
And North African countries have their own problems. I don't want to get into it out of respect for your country.

Iran is in no way weaker than any of those countries. Syria is basically an Iranian protectorate. And compared to the other countries you listed, Iran enjoys better HDI. Let alone history, nationalism, etc. Except for Egypt, the rest of these countries do not even know what patriotism and history mean.

Nobody cares what you support Iranians to protest about honestly. You're a foreigner nobody living in a remote country that is, with due respect, not very interesting for us in Iran because we are ignorant about her. I'm not trying to diss you, but the truth is that I can't remember the last time that Tunisia appeared in our news since the Arab spring.

Again, refer to my last paragraph. Nobody even knows you to want to cry a river to you. So, it's actually quite funny that you even bring it up.

 

[jauk]

Right now these riots are not very large to be honest, with a depth of a few hundred people at most but spread wide across the country. Makes it seem bigger than it really is.

As for actually being a threat to the Islamic Republic, chances are very very low without more people simply speaking. You don't get revolution by burning police cars and trash bins in the street, you have to take objectives, airports, police stations, government centers, non of which has been done and will even be possible since they are probably guarded.

In the revolution of 79" their was actual plan, and objective completion step by step, which is not seen today

This feel more like a "week of rage" rather than an actually tangible ability to do revolution, sort of like a BLM riot. Also chances of civil war is very low. I don't anticipate it of lasting unless more people join in which can have a snow ball effect.

I still believe, they need to make some serious changes.

No government is perfect although the IRI is by far the best in many ways. That said, a small number of society have grievances. These may or may not be rational. They believe their grievances justify the effort to actively protest. And they do. Which is more than fair. The main problem is these valid protests are hijacked by the enemies of the people. Entirely foreign backed and influenced. Traitors.

Fortunately, the IRI is very aware of the traitors and is taking a very nuanced and brilliant approach. Probably the best any government can take anywhere on the planet.

But all this is after the fact and after a small event. THAT is where the IRI should learn to focus more and not allow these sparks even if they are confident of handling the fiery aftermath.

 

[QWECXZ]

@waz @Irfan Baloch
Guys, do you remember that @SalarHaqq said reacting with laughter emoji is a form of harassment per forum laws?
Isn't it interesting that he is trying to violate the forum laws as he interpreted them?
You got to love the hypocrisy, which seems to be his most memorable characteristic these days.

He's also trying to engage other members in other threads by going off-topic and flame baiting.

 

[_Nabil_]

Your input here is by me (and for sure other Iranian members) appreciated as long it is about fight against Israel. Other than that, kindly do not intervene in our country's affairs through such comments. Suddenly jumping in the middle and claiming Iran risking to become Syria and accusing us to be ''weaker than all those countries'' is not the way to push for a healthy discussion.

And as last, your knowledge about Iran, and the fabric of its society is as good as my knowledge about Tunisia.

Of course my knowledge about Iranian society is almost null.

But the rest of the analysis stands, none of the countries that got by surprise by own people protest and uprising have the actual problems of Iran, by weak I don't mean military but by challenges and problems.

You have Kurds, Ahwazi, Balochi, even Azeri looking for separatism.

You have reformists looking for regime change.

You have KSA, Israel, USA, UAE, Turkey,... Wanting Iran to just disappear or at least a regime change that work for their interests.

So Syria scenario is the best case, it can be much much worse !

For the Tunisian case we got one month of protests, on a population of 12m, we got one big protest of 50k in Sfax, and one last one of 30k in Tunis the capital, that's all, regime change done and we are now weaker, poorer, no security, ... Only talk shows of democracy B.S .....

Just like I said, your country, your choices, your destiny, I just felt obliged to warn you, that's it ...

My last post on Iranian Threads, sorry for the disturb, take care everyone

 

[Surenas]

Have you ever seen a mask of a man falling of this quick as happened with our resident preacher SalarSag?

The incell clearly has some screws loose. The way he fanatically bombard posts with emoticons shows serious mental issues.

 

[Dariush the Great]

Have you ever seen a mask of a man falling of this quick as happened with our resident preacher SalarSag?

The incell clearly has some screws loose. The way he fanatically bombard posts with emoticons shows serious mental issues.

He tried to act philosophical, wise and very patient in the beginning.

Suddenly he became more like the usual trolls we see. What a disgraceful behavior.