Iranian Chill Thread

[Stryker1982]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1411389284813320194

It doesn't appear to be an explosion, I don't see evidence of ground disturbance outside the building other than the black surface within the perimeter of the building.

My guess.....incendiary quadcopter (or VTOL device) ignited a fire either with a incendiary grenade or another substance, but half the building was saved with this approach.

We've been bombing US bases with small drones 5 times in the last few months, they are working fast on developing systems to counter them, Iran should either do the same or take this stuff underground because they will continue these low-key attacks especially during nuclear negotiations, and they are all in on it. Note, how these attacks have only started when negotiations restarted.

 

[Stryker1982]

It is beyond money.


Iranian connection to Gaza war will have consequences.
The same for nuclear activities in Iran.

Well anyway. Let’s switch topic:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1411378086600392704

https://twitter.com/x/status/1411334636538675202

https://twitter.com/x/status/1411347099510321153

https://twitter.com/x/status/1411410970531053572

Hot day

https://twitter.com/x/status/1411470284964741121

 

[Shawnee]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1411470284964741121

I don’t think the sale was real.

Even if the sale was real, the incident shows the next buyer the risk it has to manage.

 

[Stryker1982]

I don’t think the sale was real.

Even if the sale was real, the incident shows the next buyer the risk it has to manage.

I don't quite believe him because in a previous tweet, he said it was "confirmed" to be Israeli ship. Either way, what's confirmed is that this ship was hit in some form in the Indian ocean.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1411366449680105475

 

[Shawnee]

I don't quite believe him because in a previous tweet, he said it was "confirmed" to be Israeli ship. Either way, what's confirmed is that this ship was hit in some form in the Indian ocean.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1411366449680105475

This is their way of downplaying the game.

 

[Shawnee]

When I look at this deeper, their way of downplaying is more dangerous.

The next Israeli ship seller has little wiggle room in the bargain. Who will risk to buy his ship?

Those dumb IRGC guys don’t get updated data. They may hit my ship. I want another 10% off.

Same goes when hiring staff for the ship or getting insurance.

 

[Iranitaakharin]

Probably quadcopter hit the roof and left burn marks. You can’t really hurt a building with quadcopter

Important question:
Who gave him the other images without permission for publishing.

The naive concept of an amateur Twitter account with no biased connection

I had a discussion with @TheImmortal that you may not be in time to capture pictures with commercial imagery and here is the real example.

It was likely an indirect delivery, someone paid Sentinel hub for the image, and had them "gift" it. This is the same account who posted the "analysis" that was disproven by a tv show a whole ago too.

When I look at this deeper, their way of downplaying is more dangerous.

The next Israeli ship seller has little wiggle room in the bargain. Who will risk to buy his ship?

Those dumb IRGC guys don’t get updated data. They may hit my ship. I want another 10% off.

Same goes when hiring staff for the ship or getting insurance.

I think this is pretty much what the purpose of this operation was, to send a message. The intended recipient clearly wasn't Jason Brodsky though since that went over his head.

 

[TheImmortal]

Iran is seeking a latent ability to go nuclear at a specific time of it’s choosing.

Baring a major conflict, this time is not anytime soon likely 10+ years away (maybe decades) when Iran is rehabilitated in the eyes of the world and economically sound. It will be taken by next Supreme Leader to preserve the standing of current SL in regards to nuclear weapons. I believe Raisi is pro nuclear weapons tho I don’t have any proof.

Thus Iran will wait for a foreign conflict where the world is distracted (US vs China skirmish, EU vs Russia, etc) where it can quickly go nuclear and the world is too busy to respond. The Shah did a similar tactic when it took over the islands in PG before UAE independence was declared.

Thus right now Israel is pushing this timeline down the road and Iran so far is accepting. Also Israel is trying to pressure Iran into the nuclear deal regardless of how much they pubiclaly say they hate the deal. They are trying to undermine Iranian leverage in negotiations to get a more favorable deal for themselves (Israelis).

Iran’s program is beyond sabotage stage.

 

[Stryker1982]

Thus right now Israel is pushing this timeline down the road and Iran so far is accepting. Also Israel is trying to pressure Iran into the nuclear deal regardless of how much they pubiclaly say they hate the deal. They are trying to undermine Iranian leverage in negotiations to get a more favorable deal for themselves (Israelis).

I enjoyed your analysis, Israel has been a good scapegoat, like good cop (Europe), bad cop (Israel). One should also add that many European countries are also behind and/or "in the know" of these sabotage attempts and support them to improve their position in negotiations, no matter how much they pretend they condemn.

 

[Shawnee]

@Iranitaakharin

Nice arguments for each side:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1411349316074098689

https://twitter.com/x/status/1411350443603730434

 

[TheImmortal]

@Iranitaakharin

Nice arguments for each side:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1411349316074098689

https://twitter.com/x/status/1411350443603730434

Underneath the foundations of a building is different from the roof of a building.

At the end of the day it is very difficult to stop these types of attacks without special radar and anti drone team of GPS scrambler/jammer in the area.

Even in Iran someone can by an off the shelf drone and with some aid and expertise devise a explosive device to attach to it.

ISIS was able to do this routinely In Syria and had success at attacking Russian airbases in Syria.

 

[Draco.IMF]

It is beyond money.


Iranian connection to Gaza war will have consequences.
The same for nuclear activities in Iran.

and vice versa!
If Iran gets hit, the scum also gets hit!

Do you think they can create chaos and assasinate people without consequences?
The leader already said the time of hitting and running away is over, its Tit for Tat.

Underneath the foundations of a building is different from the roof of a building.

At the end of the day it is very difficult to stop these types of attacks without special radar and anti drone team of GPS scrambler/jammer in the area.

Even in Iran someone can by an off the shelf drone and with some aid and expertise devise a explosive device to attach to it.

ISIS was able to do this routinely In Syria and had success at attacking Russian airbases in Syria.

Sensitive acitivites should be relocated underground

 

[TheImmortal]

Sensitive acitivites should be relocated underground

You can only put so many facilities underground plus the workers needed not everyone wants to live in the middle of nowhere.

They are attacking Iran’s ability to produce centrifuges and due to Iran’s cooperation with UN. CIA/MI6/Mossad know every centrifuge production facility in Iran since Iran had to disclose them.

 

[Draco.IMF]

CIA/MI6/Mossad know every centrifuge production facility in Iran since Iran had to disclose them.

I very much doubt this.

We know IRGC has a seperate space program and Im sure there are many centrifuge facilitys they dont know about.

Besides, they cant stop Iran going nuclear anymore, Iran long ago crossed this line

This are shadow wars, wars of attrition

 

[Shawnee]

You can only put so many facilities underground plus the workers needed not everyone wants to live in the middle of nowhere.

They are attacking Iran’s ability to produce centrifuges and due to Iran’s cooperation with UN. CIA/MI6/Mossad know every centrifuge production facility in Iran since Iran had to disclose them.

A simple roof is a protection against most quadcopters.
The fire marks will stay for propaganda use and OSINT imagery plays.