Iranian Chill Thread

[Shapur Zol Aktaf]

That is not what I'm talking about. And these Syrian and Libyan examples are completely misplaced. There has been no strong national identity in these countries, and its internal dynamics have always been a reflection of this.

I'm talking about the old Iranian route, as the historian Michael Axworthy was correct in his books when he noted that Iran has had the most revolutions and uprisings of any country in history.

Most revolutions destroy countries, the last thing what we want or should happen is a revolution. Iran is not an exception, arms will flow into the country from every side. Many soldiers got martyred to kill separatist-terrorists in Iranian Kurdish regions.. and that during the war.

 

[Surenas]

Most revolution destroy countries, the last thing what we want or should happen is a revolution. Iran is not an exception, arms will flow into the country from every side. Many soldiers got martyred to kill separatist-terrorists in Iranian Kurdish regions.. and that during the war.

I'm very well aware of the consequences of such an upheavel. But it is exactly the route we are going to if the political system and elite won't budge and continues ignore the pleas and concerns of its citizens.

Blame the Islamic Republic for this possible reality.

 

[TheImmortal]

I'm very well aware of the consequences of such an upheavel. But it is exactly the route we are going to if the political system and elite won't budge and continues ignore the pleas and concerns of its citizens.

Blame the Islamic Republic for this possible reality.

Impossible to do a revolution in Iran. The Guard is beyond powerful. Guns are illegal and not easy to procure in major cities.

The only reason it happened in Syria was Alawaites in power and a ton of arms that were stored in the country by Sunni militant groups who ran into Iraq to fight the occupation from 2003-2009.

Look at the current protestors. No organization. No central figure to rally the movement. Most protestors are just young kids in the 16-35 demographic.

 

[Surenas]

Impossible to do a revolution in Iran. The Guard is beyond powerful. Guns are illegal and not easy to procure in major cities.

The only reason it happened in Syria was Alawaites in power and a ton of arms that were stored in the country by Sunni militant groups who ran into Iraq to fight the occupation from 2003-2009.

Look at the current protestors. No organization. No central figure to rally the movement. Most protestors are just young kids in the 16-35 demographic.

You may be right.

But the current situation is untenable and unsustainable in the long-term.

So with this mind, what do you envision for the future?

 

[Ich]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1572585243261173766

 

[sha ah]

Look at this NATO/Ukrainian UAV that washed up in Sevastopol, Crimea

 

[TheImmortal]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1572562885171376128

 

[zartosht]

one thing to make a major distinction on. This woman did not die because she wasnt wearing a hijab. She died because she got into a physical altercation with the police.

This man was chocked to death by 4-5 policeman because he was selling individual ciggarettes.

Very similar circumstance

There are hundreds more.

I am really disappointed with some people here. They make themselves easy targets for outside propaganda and misinformation.

There is no policy to kill anybody for bad hijab. the woman obviously suffered a head injury in custody and died from it. It is unbleivably easy to sustain such an injury. The human body is extremely fragile.


The Iranian government has apologized for the incident, and is investigating. I see the kind of shit that happens in other countries daily, and their people try and hide their crap to not lose face.

1 incident happens in IRan that gets blown up 10000x by enemy propaganda. And we have alot of seemingly intelligent Iranians ready to throw their entire country under the bus, trash the entire country from top to bottom, and rabidly want to burn everything down because foreign propaganda got them riled up...

These low iq people are a threat to state security, and will be treated as such. Roughly handling detainees is an issue that has to be addressed. IF a person dies in policy custody, the police must, and will answer for it.

This is not a license to act as foreign agents.

The world is burning right now, all economies are collapsing, Iran is actually one of the few countries who might benefit from the situation, an ocean of stability and power in a lawless jungle. And people want to burn that because some media reports got their inner animalistic senses triggered.

Iranian drones are playing a decisive role in the most important war of the 21st century. A possible earth altering event that will be written about in the history books. The last time Iran was a relevant country was in Nader times. Iran is on the rise, regardless of sanctions. Thats 1000000x more important then petty police incidents.

 

[sha ah]

You're 100% right. Also when it comes to Syria, many Syrians at the start were looking at the quick overthrow of dictators in Tunisia, Egypt and then the subsequent 6 month civil war in Libya that had ended with a pro-western victory and they thought that a civil war in Syria would be quick and easy. Little did they know what the future would hold for them

In reality only 10% of the Syrian army defected. Without western interference the civil war wouldn't have lasted for as long as it did. I mean Syria was defacto invaded from all sides if you think about it. Militants from Turkey in the north, Jordan in the south, ISIS from the east. They were overwhelmed.

Anyways, in regards to protests in Iran recently, the government in Iran definitely needs to implement some kinds of reform. Like I mentioned in previous posts, if you want people to do something, there are two days to go about it. You can use the carrot or the stick.

However using brute force doesn't really work in the long run, because many people will simply leave the country, others will feel disenfranchised and not participate in civil society, not pay taxes, not put money in banks, not associate with any government institutions, etc This is a form of silent protest. Also when you're forcing people to do something, you will often only get mixed results at best.

On the other hand, if you don't use force but simply create incentives for people, then it's more likely that they will cooperate. In Iran for example, when it comes to hejab, at most they should give out fines to women. These fines, if tied to one credit and drivers license, creates a financial incentive to wear the hijab properly. Maybe after a certain number of violations then punish them by suspending drivers license, passport, downgrading credit until they take an education class which they also have to pay for.

I think that would work alot better than what they're doing now. Anyways..

Impossible to do a revolution in Iran. The Guard is beyond powerful. Guns are illegal and not easy to procure in major cities.

The only reason it happened in Syria was Alawaites in power and a ton of arms that were stored in the country by Sunni militant groups who ran into Iraq to fight the occupation from 2003-2009.

Look at the current protestors. No organization. No central figure to rally the movement. Most protestors are just young kids in the 16-35 demographic.

 

[Surenas]

The world is burning right now, all economies are collapsing, Iran is actually one of the few countries who might benefit from the situation, an ocean of stability and power in a lawless jungle. And people want to burn that because some media reports got their inner animalistic senses triggered.

Iranian drones are playing a decisive role in the most important war of the 21st century. A possible earth altering event that will be written about in the history books. The last time Iran was a relevant country was in Nader times. Iran is on the rise, regardless of sanctions. Thats 1000000x more important then petty police incidents.

Our women are being harassed and killed. Our younger people are being robbed of their future. Our political system fails to allow any dissenting voice or alternative ideas. Our economic situation is dire, with millions of people living in poverty. Our social freedoms are nihil, with no hope for improvement.

And all you can think about is Iran Stronk!? Are you alright in the head?

 

[sha ah]

Putin doubles down in Ukraine !!

Putin gives speech announcing partial mobilization of 300,000 troops. 4 seperatist regions in Ukraine to hold referendums on the 23rd of Sept, in a few days.

Putin states that Russia will us any means at its disposal to protect it's people, including nuclear arms. This, he says, is not a bluff.

I honestly don't think that Ukraine can stand up to 300,000 additional, well armed Russian troops. Currently Ukraine is stretched to its limit. They have sustained more than 100,000 casualties, lost most of their armor, which the west has replaced with whatever they had in storage. Currently it's becoming a trend for women to join the Ukrainian army and they seem to be very reliant on foreign mercenaries like Black Water. Anyways only time will tell, but right now the rainy season has arrived, everything is turning to mud in Ukraine and winter is fast approaching. Let's see what happens next.

 

[Surenas]

I honestly don't think that Ukraine can stand up to 300,000 additional, well armed Russian troops. Currently Ukraine is stretched to its limit. They have sustained more than 100,000 casualties, lost most of their armor, which the west has replaced with whatever they had in storage. Currently it's becoming a trend for women to join the Ukrainian army and they seem to be very reliant on foreign mercenaries like Black Water. Anyways only time will tell, but right now the rainy season has arrived, everything is turning to mud in Ukraine and winter is fast approaching. Let's see what happens next.

An influx of 300.000 undertrained and underequipped conscripts is not going to turn the tide, especially not without a competent officer corpse and persistent logistical problems.

And the partial mobilization is already causing an exodus of military-age males from Russia it seems.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1571810517466980352

 

[sha ah]

Honestly if the Iranian government had any brains, they would arrest those who are responsible for what happened to Masah Amini. It seems pretty obvious that at some point she was hit in the head. Why do you need to hit a 22 year old girl in the head to restrain her, even if she got physical ? Yes police brutality is something that happens as over the world, especially in the US, but that's no excuse.

They should quickly investigate and arrest those responsible, just to clam down the crowds. Then they should implement reforms. Like I said, fine girls who don't wear hejab and after multiple violations suspend their drivers license, passport, downgrade credit, until they pay for and attend a class. This method will be alot more effective than what they're currently doing.

The issue is that the way Masah Amini was dressed is nothing out of the ordinary. She was wearing hejab, but just not up to the standards of the Islamic Republic. This is a very common sight all over Iran, but especially in the cities. So what are they going to do ? Arrest millions of girls for "improper dress" It's impossible. It would be like giving a ticket to every single driver that goes over 50 in a 50 zone. It's impossible.

The people in charge need to give their head a shake. Sooner or later, with millions becoming disenfranchised, the west will start pouring millions into training and arming, separatists,anti government partisans, etc. But at the end of the day it's the Iranian governments own fault. The west may light the fire and pour gasoline on the fire, but they're providing them with the opportunity. Anyways, they need to wake up, before its too late.

Our women are being harassed and killed. Our younger people are being robbed of their future. Our political system fails to allow any dissenting voice or alternative ideas. Our economic situation is dire, with millions of people living in poverty. Our social freedoms are nihil, with no hope for improvement.

And all you can think about is Iran Stronk!? Are you alright in the head?

 

[Shapur Zol Aktaf]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1572585243261173766

It's good... It's sad as well that it happens while we're in this unnecessary situation in Iran. Today a certain figure in Iran said... (I forgot his name) he said that if we wanted to arrest people because of hijab, we should have arrested so many women who attended funeral of General Soleimani.

 

[sha ah]

The Russian reserves chosen will undergo several months of training before deployment. Also 90% of Ukraine's army is undertrained and underequipped. Most conscripts in Ukraine undergo a few weeks or even just a few days of training and many of them are armed with WW1 era Maxim machine guns or WW2 era gear.

Russia currently has over 4000 deployable tanks in storage. Thousands of armored vehicles, thousands of artillery pieces. rifles, ammunition, everything they need. The biggest issue for Russia is a lack of manpower and now they're solving that problem.

Aside from that, the Wagner group is currently recruiting as many prisoners as they can. Conservative estimates put the number they will be able to recruit at 20,000. Realistically they might be able to recruit 40,000+ troops. Ramzan Kadirov has also announced his plans to mobilize his population. This will lead to 80,000 additional troops.

So in a few months Russia will likely have 400,000+ well armed troops added to the fight. I don't think Ukraine will be able to stand up to this. That's just my assessment and many analysts agree. In an armed conflict, any army going on the offensive must outnumber the enemy 3 to 1 or have something else up their sleeve (air supremacy). Russia's airforce has been blunted by Ukrainian air defense and western funding and intel.

So essentially it's a numbers game. Everything the Russians have achieved they have done so outnumbered, which is mind boggling. The west wants to portray the Russian army as weak and incompetent but considering the facts, that's simply not true. They currently control approximately 20% of Ukrainian territory with Crimea included. Once 300,000-400,000 troops are deployed, Ukraine will be in big trouble. Just wait and see.

An influx of 300.000 undertrained and underequipped conscripts is not going to turn the tide, especially not without a competent officer corpse and persistent logistical problems.

And the partial mobilization is already causing an exodus of military-age males from Russia it seems.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1571810517466980352