And regress back to a mono-sectorial crude oil extracting economy after the impressive progress made during the past four decades in terms of industrialization and boosting domestic agricultural output? The suggestion is nothing short of a recipe for de-industrialization - something liberals in Iran (reformists & moderates) are openly advocating and pushing for. Consequences on Iran's economy would be devastating, for the Dutch Disease Iran would subsequently be affected by, is an inherent obstacle to proper economic development. And in political terms, it'd furnish Iran's existetial enemies a major instrument of coercion against Iran, namely the exploitation of economic dependence.
That they have not made use of criminal measures such as interdicting food supplies to Iran doesn't mean they wouldn't be willing to do so. The thing is, such measures would represent a massive escalation and Iran would doubtlessly hit back and hurt their interests just as massively if they attempted to starve the Iranian people on a grand scale. And that's actually the only reason why they're refraining from such. Case in point, they mercilessly starved Iraqis from 1991 to 2003, they committed genocide against Iranians themselves towards the end of WW1 by cutting off the grains supply chain. So it's certainly not due to moral considerations that they're holding back but because of Iran's retaliatory power.
When it comes to agriculture, 11% of Iran's vast territory being suitable for farming is in fact far more responsive to Iran's needs than the figure might suggest at first glance, because Iran's population density happens to be low. Pakistan next door is about half as large geographically but is home to almost thrice the number of people ie its population density is 5,5 times that of Iran. And the arid region of Pakistan includes southern and central Baluchistan, southern Punjab, southern and northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Sind, and the Gilgit-Baltistan province.
Also reasonable solutions for domestic agriculture were often discussed by public figures and even cited here, so I don't know where this unwarranted sense of hopelessness is stemming from. Essentially, improving farming techniques - and by that I'm not even referring to the introduction of health hazards such as GMO's or all sorts of additional chemical fertilizers, but things such as better water management, more rational choice and geographic distribution of crops, the generalization of greenhouses (which could even lead to a climatic cooling effect as observed in Almeria, Spain) etc. These onto themselves would make an enormous difference already. To address the challenges farmers are facing, Jahade Keshavarzi can be revived and can once again experience the notable successes it achieved in the 1980's.
No, Iran must stay the course and not only keep developing national production in every key area but do so in such a manner as to ensure the greatest possible degree of self-sufficiency, opposite to the logic of globalization.
Actually, those who followed worldwide trends in economic policy will be aware of the fact that the COVID epidemic was a wake up call for policy makers, upon whom it has now dawned that long neglected self-sufficiency in a whole series of strategic sectors (from food to medicine and various others) is in fact decisive. The trend been towards fundamental questioning of economic globalization. Why should Iran act so absurdly and start defying these empirically demonstrated findings, especially now that they've proven themselves to be accurate in practice?
