Iranian Chill Thread

[sha ah]

Iran GDP graph according to IMF

Islamic Republic of Iran and the IMF

www.imf.org

 

[Cthulhu]

So roughly $290 billion. Hm, that's not really stellar but it's not too shabby either.

I see potential to do a lot of things annually.

Yeah, $290 billion if you use the NIMA system exchange rate or $250 billion if you use the free market exchange rate, Probably somewhere in between.

I suggest adding up the IMF and World Bank figures and dividing them by two, thereby getting an average.

1.7 trillion + 200 billion = 1.9 trillion divided by 2 = 950 billion

The previous IMF figure was 1.4 trillion so let's say 800 billion ? That seems more than fair. Because you can't disregard the IMF figure but at the same time you can't disregard the World Bank figure, so then take an average, does that make sense ?

The IMF uses a US$1 = 42,000 rials exchange rate when they convert Iran's GDP figure which is calculated in rials by the central bank to the USD equivalent, The World Bank uses free exchange rates (US$1 = 280,000 rials) when they convert Iran's GDP figure (the same number) to the USD equivalent, The World Bank kinda explains this on their website:

So what you are doing makes sense? No

 

[unrequitted_love_suzy]

At least five killed after a building collapses in Iran, leaving 80 people trapped​

 

[sha ah]

With Russian forces continually advancing as they constantly target Ukraine's military infrastructure, the situation appears increasingly desperate for the Ukrainians

According to the Russians, today they destroyed a unit of the American supplied M777 howitzers, killed 230 Ukrainian troops, destroyed 33 military vehicles, shot down 3 planes and 13 drones

Russia again struck multiple military targets all over Ukraine, including vital railway infrastructure in central Ukraine, which the Russians claim was transporting military equipment. Iskander missiles were reportedly used

Zelensky today admitted that Russia had struck a Ukranian military base killing 87 Ukrainian soldiers who were buried under rubble

Russian forces have captured more territory north of Popasnaya, putting Severodonetsk at further risk of encirclement

Russian forces have captured Lyman, 20 KM north of Kramatorsk

Russian troops have been seen raising the flag in Svitlodarsk, Donetsk region effectively giving them control over a road 40-50 km south-east of Kramatorsk

https://twitter.com/x/status/1528995918246293505

https://twitter.com/x/status/1528741983740641280

https://twitter.com/x/status/1518186838825000960

 

[Mahabahu kaunteya]

At least five killed after a building collapses in Iran, leaving 80 people trapped​

I pray for safety of the trapped people

 

[sha ah]

Well you're basically implying that the GDP should be strictly determined by exchange rate. So then Turkey, since last year, its currency has lost half of its value, should we cut their GDP by half ?

PPP then might be a better way of gauging GDP. According to the PPP standard Iran's GDP is 980 billion (IMF) 1.1 trillion (World Bank). Considering that, my original estimate of 700-950 is not that unrealistic.

Yeah, $290 billion if you use the NIMA system exchange rate or $250 billion if you use the free market exchange rate, Probably somewhere in between.


The IMF uses a US$1 = 42,000 rials exchange rate when they convert Iran's GDP figure which is calculated in rials by the central bank to the USD equivalent, The World Bank uses free exchange rates (US$1 = 280,000 rials) when they convert Iran's GDP figure (the same number) to the USD equivalent, The World Bank kinda explains this on their website:

So what you are doing makes sense? No

 

[Cancerous Tumor]

Iran somehow lost half of her population ?
Wages, spending and production became half ?

Worldbank is trolling and IMF seems correct.Yet still I think IMF 1.5T PPP is way lower than what it should be.

Government wages increased by 10% this year. minimum wages increased by 57% and some other workers got +30%.
Oil and gas is rising.price of goods are rising so from 1-1.4 GDP nominal in 2020/2021 to 1.7 for 2022 is weird ?

 

[SalarHaqq]

well , My uncle is retired sepahi , 3 of my cousins are Sepahi and one of my distance relative was martyred in syria as sepahi ... none of them have luxury lives but almost all of them are critizing the wide spread corruption among ISI ... they feel betrayed ...

If these guys with simple life werent protecting Iran , ISI could fall in less than 1 year ... but most of ISI are corrupted , none of my good relative could advanced in ISI ranks but there are some bad people I know who are advancing in ISI rank ...

The point is that a great many high ranking officials of the IR have a clean slate and are not corrupt at all. The same propaganda agencies which spread the lie that authorities in the Islamic Republic are particularly corrupt, also claim that all power is concentrated in the hands of Sepah and the Supreme Leader. In other words, they are suggesting that Sepah is a corrupt institution, when in fact the exact opposite is the case, as once again illustrated by the simple lifestyle and abnegation of their latest martyr.

Bottom line, corruption in other countries across the world, whether developing or developed nations, most of the time is greater than in Iran. In order to realize this, one needs to conduct proper research on what the situation is like elsewhere (and by that I don't mean relying on the comical, cherry picked data peddled by Manoto, Saudi International and oppositionist Telegram and Instagram accounts) - something that's never undertaken by those who imagine corruption is running especially high in Iran.

Nor does the Islamic Republic rely on force to legitimize itself. It's not even a police state. In Brussels or other major European cties, I see more armed police officers in public places than in Tehran. In Tehran over 80%-90% of policemen one will encounter are white-blue uniformed traffic police, green wearing Niruye Entezami are nowhere to be seen. And to get an idea of how popular the Islamic Republic is with Iranians, massive rallies on 22 Bahman and other such occasions offer a good demonstration.

This said, corrupt elements must be removed, they need to be clamped down upon harder and harder. Because for an Islamic Republic, even a handful of corrupt officials are unacceptable. But let us not dwell under the delusion that Iran is worse off in this regard than the global norm.

The funny part is being spy for foreign country has even lower punishment in Iran than stealing a car ... ISI doesn't want to confront the traitors among their own ranks ...

That's not true. You can bring you point across without making things up. Spies risk the death penalty, thieves never do.

 

[SalarHaqq]

GDP numbers on Iran are nonsense in a hyperinflation environment and wild currency rates.

And PPP also makes India the 3rd biggest economy in the world....we know that’s not true with all the poverty and lack of development in many parts of the country.

There is no hyperinflation in Iran. 30%-35% is not hyperinflation (defined by most economists as superior to 50%).

 

[sha ah]

 

[SalarHaqq]

Exactly this.

An organization with such problems cannot survive long-term.

We'll talk again about this in 10 years enshAllah. And then in 20, 30, 50 and so on.

On a sidenote, one year into the Raisi administration, are you still of the belief that Iran is "desperate" for a revival of the JCPOA?

 

[sha ah]

 

[SalarHaqq]

Donbass offensive is still very slow and grinding for both sides. 90% of Russia‘s current gains were made in first 2 weeks. So everything has gone largely as I thought it would when everyone was saying Russia is going to take over everything.

Not even retired Russian generals are calling it a successful campaign. It was designed as a blitzkreig now it’s morphed into Iran and Iraq war basically in terms of the grind.

I don’t know how anyone can look at that war and not say Ukrainian resistance was very formidable. Yes Eastern Ukraine is now bombed to bits. Most people here were saying Kiyv will fall. Now we are waiting for Donbass and Luchnask to fall.

The Russian special military operation in Ukraine and the Imposed War are very different. In Ukraine, there's no back and forth, only one side is steadily advancing, and will end up acquiring a large chunk of the other's territory. Here the defeated side is the one which enjoys massive foreign backing including from the west, like Iraq during the Imposed War. In the Imposed War, the attacker failed to reach its objectives. In the present Russian military operation, Moscow is attaining its goals.

I don't know who the users were who predicted a blitzkrieg or that the city of Kiev would be taken by 40.000 Russian troops. But they weren't a majority. Besides, it doesn't take away from Russia's prowess if a majority of layman users on some internet website issue too optimistic predictions.

_____

If Kramatorsk falls, the battle for the Donbas is basically over.

Slavyansk rather than Kramatorsk. Slavyansk is better defended and of greater importance, both in military-strategic and in political terms. Either way, both of the twin-towns will be liberated soon enough.

After that if Ukraine doesn't want to negotiate Russia will likely go for Odessa.

The border to Transnistria, and therefore Odessa, are official Russian objectives since general Rostam Minnikhanov announced that Moscow will no longer settle for less than this whole area. I believe we should stick to the official statements. Likewise, Russia never proclaimed the liberation of Kiev as an objective, therefore those who argue Moscow was "defeated" because it chose not to send troops into the city are talking nonsense.

Now Ukraine would have to offer something of tremendous political value for Russia to moderate its present war objectives.

 

[Cancerous Tumor]

According to Worldbank data we are at level of 2004
really dude?

Iran GDP 1960-2022

GDP at purchaser's prices is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products. It is calculated without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or for depletion and...

www.macrotrends.net

 

[Cthulhu]

Well you're basically implying that the GDP should be strictly determined by exchange rate. So then Turkey, since last year, its currency has lost half of its value, should we cut their GDP by half ?

PPP then might be a better way of gauging GDP. According to the PPP standard Iran's GDP is 980 billion (IMF) 1.1 trillion (World Bank). Considering that, my original estimate of 700-950 is not that unrealistic.

Ok, no. GDP, By its definition, is the "measure of the market value of all the final goods and services produced in a specific time period". Lets consider Turkey, Lets say we calculate this figure to be x Turkish liras, Now Lets say the Turkish government prints a bunch of money and adds them to the system overnight and now we calculate this figure to be 2*x Turkish liras at the same time Turkish lira is going to lose half of its value against the dollar so you are going to get the same GDP figure when you convert it to the USD equivalent. Now if we use a fixed exchange rate for the Turkish lira when we are trying to convent this 2*x figure to the USD then we are going to conclude that the Turkey's GDP grow by 100% over night! This is what's happening with the IMF's report on Iran's GDP.