Iranian Chill Thread

[Man of steel23]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497307689407315970

Chenchens have entered the war.


2 US defense officials are confirming that Russia lost two IL-76’s. Still not photo of wreckage or any evidence of this tho. But if true would be an embarrassment. Not sure why these gigantic planes that light up like Christmas trees would be in contested airspace. Doesn’t take too much to bring one down.

Shxt this is a massive war in scale mann

 

[TheImmortal]

I would add that

• Iran lost 2500 soldiers/advisors in 10 years in Syria war
• Hezbollah lost 1200
• Iraqi militias/Afghan/Pakistan lost another 4-5K

Remember this was some of the most brutal asymmetrical urban warfare that was seen in the last half century. Much different than Ukraine conventional tactics.

Ukraine is claiming out of a force of 40-60K troops (if that, all indications are Russia is using 30% of its forces right now) they managed to inflict 10% casualties in first 48 hours? For a tier 1 army like Russia that seems hard to believe.

 

[sha ah]

All this without a shred of evidence to prove it. Turks had evidence even if they did exaggerate some numbers. These guys have nothing. They're making outlandish claims and have shown the world almost nothing to back up their claims.

It's astounding how the western nations behave as if they have some kind of moral high ground against Russia. As if Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Libya and all the rest had not happened ?

All of a sudden Putin is a war criminal and they're sanctioning Russian footballers, singers, entertainers without a second thought ? Just wait until they begin feeling the recoil effect from their own sanctions. They're going to get a reality check the hard way. Already gasoline and wheat prices are surging. This is only the tip of the iceberg.

If it's true, I am shocked at the carelessness of Russia commanders.


Also if you guys thought Turkish MoD is full of shit. Look at this lol

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497446490406596608

 

[Blue In Green]

I would add that

• Iran lost 2500 soldiers/advisors in 10 years in Syria war
• Hezbollah lost 1200
• Iraqi militias/Afghan/Pakistan lost another 4-5K

Remember this was some of the most brutal asymmetrical urban warfare that was seen in the last half century. Much different than Ukraine conventional tactics.

Ukraine is claiming out of a force of 40-60K troops (if that, all indications are Russia is using 30% of its forces right now) they managed to inflict 10% casualties in first 48 hours? For a tier 1 army like Russia that seems hard to believe.

It seems as though the initial wave of Russian precision strikes didn't do enough comprehensive damage to blunt the resistance they faced when the order to roll in was given. It's clear they have active air-defenses working to some appreciable capacity.

Your thoughts?

 

[TheImmortal]

How could they have shot down two IL-76 planes without a shred of evidence ? Is that even possible ?

Ukraine still likely has some Buks hidden away that haven’t been destroyed. It’s a massive cargo jet not flying IFF and easily identifiable as enemy. Not an F-22

As for the evidence part if it doesn’t appear within 24 hours than I’ll call BS. But US defense officials usually don’t go on the record and lie about something so inconsequential.

 

[sha ah]

Out of 150,000 troops, if Russia has sent in 1/3rd like the western mainstream media claims, then it's 30-40,000 right ? So if Ukrainians killed 3500 Russian troops that would mean 10% dead or MIA, which would mean 2-3x as many injuries. So that's a 30% casualty rate on the Russian army within 48 hrs ? However there's no evidence. 3500 dead ? 100 tanks ? 14 planes ? Where are they then ? Why don't they show us even a fraction of the evidence ? What's the issue they didn't have time to take pictures ? LOL

I would add that

• Iran lost 2500 soldiers/advisors in 10 years in Syria war
• Hezbollah lost 1200
• Iraqi militias/Afghan/Pakistan lost another 4-5K

Remember this was some of the most brutal asymmetrical urban warfare that was seen in the last half century. Much different than Ukraine conventional tactics.

Ukraine is claiming out of a force of 40-60K troops (if that, all indications are Russia is using 30% of its forces right now) they managed to inflict 10% casualties in first 48 hours? For a tier 1 army like Russia that seems hard to believe.

I'm not saying it's impossible but I'll believe it when I see it. I just find it hard to believe that 2 gigantic planes were even used this early on in the conflict. The Russians are not dumb are they. They obviously know that the Ukrainians could have hidden some assets away and that they could have survived the initial bombing run.

Not only that but if they did shoot down two IL-76 planes then why not show the evidence ? Do you really believe that they killed 3500 Russians ? It's not like the US hasn't lied or been wrong before. From WMDs in Iraq to Kabul will not fall to everything in between, they've been dead wrong countless times in the last 2 decades.

Also when it comes to the Ukrainians, the most comprehensive evidence they've shown so far, it's turned out in the end to be their own asset destroyed. Like they claimed to have shot down a Russian jet, then it turned out to be a Ukrainian jet. Russians tanks destroyed then later it comes out that they're pictures of a Ukrainian convoy. I'm really reluctant to believe anything they say at this point.

Ukraine still likely has some Buks hidden away that haven’t been destroyed. It’s a massive cargo jet not flying IFF and easily identifiable as enemy. Not an F-22

As for the evidence part if it doesn’t appear within 24 hours than I’ll call BS. But US defense officials usually don’t go on the record and lie about something so inconsequential.

 

[Blue In Green]

Out of 150,000 troops, if Russia has sent in 1/3rd like the western mainstream media claims, then it's 30-40,000 right ? So if Ukrainians killed 3500 Russian troops that would mean 10% dead or MIA, which would mean 2-3x as many injuries. So that's a 30% casualty rate on the Russian army within 48 hrs ? However there's no evidence. 3500 dead ? 100 tanks ? 14 planes ? Where are they then ? Why don't they show us even a fraction of the evidence ? What's the issue they didn't have time to take pictures ? LOL



I'm not saying it's impossible but I'll believe it when I see it. I just find it hard to believe that 2 gigantic planes were even used this early on in the conflict. The Russians are not dumb are they. They obviously know that the Ukrainians could have hidden some assets away and that they could have survived the initial bombing run.

Not only that but if they did shoot down two IL-76 planes then why not show the evidence ? Do you really believe that they killed 3500 Russians ? It's not like the US hasn't lied or been wrong before. From WMDs in Iraq to Kabul will not fall to everything in between, they've been dead wrong countless times in the last 2 decades.

The running theory seems to be that Russia doesn't want to inflict too much widespread destruction and death (specifically civilian) since they will be the ones to presumably oversee the transfer of power to a new government after they "demilitarize" the Ukrainian state and I guess partition sections of it.

 

[TheImmortal]

It seems as though the initial wave of Russian precision strikes didn't do enough comprehensive damage to blunt the resistance they faced when the order to roll in was given. It's clear they have active air-defenses working to some appreciable capacity.

Your thoughts?

This whole campaign is just beyond Bizaare. First of all, why hasn’t Ukraine’s internet been cut off so people can’t post videos of Russian positions? I’m watching videos of sabatouers on Twitter.

I mean the first sign of trouble and Iran cuts off its internet. That is literally first rule of playbook (other than close the airspace which Iran was too incompetent to do).

Second, where the hell is Russian big *** bombers like Blackjack? Where is SU-35? Where is SU-57? Where is Mig 31? Where is Russian UAVs? Where is Russian UAV jet?Where are Iskander missiles? Where are special forces operations behind enemy lines decapitation of high ranking officials and sabotage ops?


So my theory is one of two things

1) Putin wants to avoid heavy civilian casualties and even Ukraine military casualties. He wants life to be semi normal (internet and power) Thus most of the Russian army are sitting back and might have only been brought to border to deter any country from joining to aid Ukraine.

2) Putin is sending in tier 3 and tier 2 soldiers to gauge and bog down Ukraine forces. I have read article a few years back that said outside of Russian spetnaz, little green men, and special ops, the regular Russian military soldier is very poorly trained compared to western counterparts and maybe at this point even Iran since Iran has been getting experience in Syria. So if there are high casualties it could be because the “real soldiers” aka shock troops haven’t been deployed.


But I will say something Russian cyberattacks, Russian military columns moving without air cover, seemingly no UAVs supporting Russian operations (we would have at least seen one crashed or downed by now). The whole operation just smells of outdated Soviet Union playbook that Syria was using at the beginning of the war (since Syria was trained by the Soviet Union back in the day).

Russia air operations in Syria and Russia air operations in Ukraine are so different that its almost like two different countries led the war effort.

 

[Blue In Green]

This whole campaign is just beyond Bizaare. First of all, why hasn’t Ukraine’s internet been cut off so people can’t post videos of Russian positions? I’m watching videos of sabatouers on Twitter.

I mean the first sign of trouble and Iran cuts off its internet. That is literally first rule of playbook (other than close the airspace which Iran was too incompetent to do).

Second, where the hell is Russian big *** bombers like Blackjack? Where is SU-35? Where is SU-57? Where is Mig 31? Where is Russian UAVs? Where is Russian UAV jet?Where are Iskander missiles? Where are special forces operations behind enemy lines decapitation of high ranking officials and sabotage ops?


So my theory is one of two things

1) Putin wants to avoid heavy civilian casualties and even Ukraine military casualties. He wants life to be semi normal (internet and power) Thus most of the Russian army are sitting back and might have only been brought to border to deter any country from joining to aid Ukraine.

2) Putin is sending in tier 3 and tier 2 soldiers to gauge and bog down Ukraine forces. I have read article a few years back that said outside of Russian spetnaz, little green men, and special ops, the regular Russian military soldier is very poorly trained compared to western counterparts and maybe at this point even Iran since Iran has been getting experience in Syria. So if there are high casualties it could be because the “real soldiers” aka shock troops haven’t been deployed.


But I will say something Russian cyberattacks, Russian military columns moving without air cover, seemingly no UAVs supporting Russian operations (we would have at least seen one crashed or downed by now). The whole operation just smells of outdated Soviet Union playbook that Syria was using at the beginning of the war (since Syria was trained by the Soviet Union back in the day).

We might be witnessing the first "humanitarian" war bro lmfao.

If this staunch resistance keeps up, Russian MOD and Putin are going to be forced into using higher-tier conventional assets and troops in order to obliterate remaining Ukrainian forces.

What's super odd, and you correctly point it out. Is that, if Russia's stated intent is to "demilitarize" Ukraine then wouldn't it more than prudent to send in/utilize higher-tier military assets on day one instead of sending idiot conscripts to die in a meat-grinder?

Very callous and weird, these past three days have been nothing but a daze....

 

[Man of steel23]

Truly casualties in such conflict are high the 3500 is perhaps on the low end imo and could be higher..

Alot of folks even believe the 3500 loss of US forces in AFG to this day.. The truth is nobody releases casualty period. According to the Afghan sources NATO lost 125k forces in afg discounting ANA and who themselves could reach 500k whereas the IEA themselves could have lost thru out the years as high as 700k counting all the elements coming in from the borders as Pakistan is an ocean. Wars are high casuality affair and specifically prolonged ones..

Example the number of casualties the US released for Vietnam was criminally low for 25 years until recently one guy have unearthed the truth saying the US lost 60k+ in Vietnam not including the south vietnamese forces..

You don't need to be genius to grasp this.. Imagine this there has been clashes daily in both places for 20 years alot of skirmishes everywhere and do the math after that

 

[sha ah]

All I know is that its barely been 48 hrs and all of the major cities, including the capital Kiev, are surrounded along with several key airfields and airports now in Russian hands.

Ukrainians claim that they've inflicted massive casualties onto the Russian troops however they haven't been able to provide sufficient proof to back up their claims.

We might be witnessing the first "humanitarian" war bro lmfao

Out of 150,000 troops, if Russia has sent in 1/3rd like the western mainstream media claims, then it's 30-40,000 right ? So if Ukrainians killed 3500 Russian troops that would mean 10% dead or MIA, which would mean 2-3x as many injuries. So that's a 30% casualty rate on the Russian army within 48 hrs ? However there's no evidence. 3500 dead ? 100 tanks ? 14 planes ? Where are they then ? Why don't they show us even a fraction of the evidence ? What's the issue they didn't have time to take pictures ? LOL



I'm not saying it's impossible but I'll believe it when I see it. I just find it hard to believe that 2 gigantic planes were even used this early on in the conflict. The Russians are not dumb are they. They obviously know that the Ukrainians could have hidden some assets away and that they could have survived the initial bombing run.

Not only that but if they did shoot down two IL-76 planes then why not show the evidence ? Do you really believe that they killed 3500 Russians ? It's not like the US hasn't lied or been wrong before. From WMDs in Iraq to Kabul will not fall to everything in between, they've been dead wrong countless times in the last 2 decades.

Also when it comes to the Ukrainians, the most comprehensive evidence they've shown so far, it's turned out in the end to be their own asset destroyed. Like they claimed to have shot down a Russian jet, then it turned out to be a Ukrainian jet. Russians tanks destroyed then later it comes out that they're pictures of a Ukrainian convoy. I'm really reluctant to believe anything they say at this point.

3500 Russian troops dead ? Then show us the evidence. 100 Russian tanks ? 2x IL-76 planes ? Fine show us the evidence then. Why is there not a shred of evidence to verify these claims ?

Truly casualties in such conflict are high the 3500 is perhaps on the low end imo and could be higher..

Alot of folks even believe the 3500 loss of US forces in AFG to this day.. The truth is nobody releases casualty period. According to the Afghan sources NATO lost 125k forces in afg discounting Ana that could reach 500k the IEA could have lost thru out the years as high as 700k counting all the elements coming in from the border.. Wars are high casuality affair..

Example the number of casualties the US released for Vietnam was criminally low for 25 years until recently one guy have unearthed the truth saying the US lost 60k+ in Vietnam..

You don't need to be genius to grasp this.. Imagine this there has been clashes daily in both places for 20 years alot of skirmishes everywhere and do the math after that

 

[Stryker1982]

Ukraine still likely has some Buks hidden away that haven’t been destroyed. It’s a massive cargo jet not flying IFF and easily identifiable as enemy. Not an F-22

As for the evidence part if it doesn’t appear within 24 hours than I’ll call BS. But US defense officials usually don’t go on the record and lie about something so inconsequential.

100%

It seems as though the initial wave of Russian precision strikes didn't do enough comprehensive damage to blunt the resistance they faced when the order to roll in was given. It's clear they have active air-defenses working to some appreciable capacity.

Your thoughts?

The Russians to some extent are trying to finesse this war, and it might lead to alot more casualties. For instance, they have completely refrained from missile strikes on Government buildings in Kyiv.

 

[TheImmortal]

We might be witnessing the first "humanitarian" war bro lmfao.

Putin’s public image is over. When Companies around the world are positing support of Ukraine. I mean I saw damn Simpson’s cartoon tweet in support of Ukraine. Like wtf

Russia is officially a pariah and Putin is now a Stalinist.

I hate to sound like a “I told you so”. But maybe @SalarHaqq can go back in my posts as far back as 2-3 years ago probably even longer where I said Russia is gonna get pinched by NATO to the point they get Russia right where they want them and Russia will have to make a choice.

Make no mistake, the West has a raging erection right now for what is happening. Putin offered to meet in Minks for neutrality and winner terms and the West rebuffed him. I mean these guys don’t want peace, they have been preparing this sanctions book for decades and are now going page by page.

Putin is never going to get rehabilitated. And he knows that. But he has finally accepted something he should have done years ago, that either you fight the West designs now or just be content with turning your country over in less than 50 years.

To Putin’s credit, he could have easily lived the good life and cooperated with the West. Let the West continue to move to its borders (like he pragmatically did last 20 years). The media would have praised him and Russia would have Nordstream 2 online and making even more money.

But the dark side of that deal, is one day that mafia you let run around will put a bullet in the heart of your country and devour it from within.

I have to give MI6/CIA and Western news media and western mega conglomerates A lot of ****ing credit. They built one hell of a information machine that can trick most of the globe into believing a country defending its self interest and future preservation is the bad guy. And a country (USA) that steals a 3rd world countries central bank assets (Afghanistan) and gives most of it to US citizens as war gifts is somehow the “bringer of freedom” in the world.

I mean ****ing sociopathic genius the Western propaganda machine is. Never seen anything like it.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497457307470467077

I should add Russia’s lack of PGM or lack of willingness to use its PGM stockpile is causing fighter jets to have to get closer to their targets to avoid civilian casualties with dummy bombs.

It makes me wonder how much PGM stockpile Iran truly has? Hopefully they are watching the Russian situation.

 

[Blue In Green]

Putin’s public image is over. When Companies around the world are positing support of Ukraine. I mean I saw damn Simpson’s cartoon tweet in support of Ukraine. Like wtf

Russia is officially a pariah and Putin is now a Stalinist.

I hate to sound like a “I told you so”. But maybe @SalarHaqq can go back in my posts as far back as 2-3 years ago probably even longer where I said Russia is gonna get pinched by NATO to the point they get Russia right where they want them and Russia will have to make a choice.

Make no mistake, the West has a raging erection right now for what is happening. Putin offered to meet in Minks for neutrality and winner terms and the West rebuffed him. I mean these guys don’t want peace, they have been preparing this sanctions book for decades and are now going page by page.

Putin is never going to get rehabilitated. And he knows that. But he has finally accepted something he should have done years ago, that either you fight the West designs now or just be content with turning your country over in less than 50 years.

To Putin’s credit, he could have easily lived the good life and cooperated with the West. Let the West continue to move to its borders (like he pragmatically did last 20 years). The media would have praised him and Russia would have Nordstream 2 online and making even more money.

But the dark side of that deal, is one day that mafia you let run around will put a bullet in the heart of your country and devour it from within.

I have to give MI6/CIA and Western news media and western mega conglomerates A lot of ****ing credit. They built one hell of a information machine that can trick most of the globe into believing a country defending its self interest and future preservation is the bad guy. And a country (USA) that steals a 3rd world countries central bank assets (Afghanistan) and gives most of it to US citizens as war gifts is somehow the “bringer of freedom” in the world.

I mean ****ing sociopathic genius the Western propaganda machine is. Never seen anything like it.

So the Russians under Putin have no other real choice other than to fight Western expansion with force come hell or high water then huh? Jesus.....

How far you think it's gonna go?

 

[Stryker1982]

This whole campaign is just beyond Bizaare. First of all, why hasn’t Ukraine’s internet been cut off so people can’t post videos of Russian positions? I’m watching videos of sabatouers on Twitter.

I mean the first sign of trouble and Iran cuts off its internet. That is literally first rule of playbook (other than close the airspace which Iran was too incompetent to do).

Second, where the hell is Russian big *** bombers like Blackjack? Where is SU-35? Where is SU-57? Where is Mig 31? Where is Russian UAVs? Where is Russian UAV jet?Where are Iskander missiles? Where are special forces operations behind enemy lines decapitation of high ranking officials and sabotage ops?


So my theory is one of two things

1) Putin wants to avoid heavy civilian casualties and even Ukraine military casualties. He wants life to be semi normal (internet and power) Thus most of the Russian army are sitting back and might have only been brought to border to deter any country from joining to aid Ukraine.

2) Putin is sending in tier 3 and tier 2 soldiers to gauge and bog down Ukraine forces. I have read article a few years back that said outside of Russian spetnaz, little green men, and special ops, the regular Russian military soldier is very poorly trained compared to western counterparts and maybe at this point even Iran since Iran has been getting experience in Syria. So if there are high casualties it could be because the “real soldiers” aka shock troops haven’t been deployed.


But I will say something Russian cyberattacks, Russian military columns moving without air cover, seemingly no UAVs supporting Russian operations (we would have at least seen one crashed or downed by now). The whole operation just smells of outdated Soviet Union playbook that Syria was using at the beginning of the war (since Syria was trained by the Soviet Union back in the day).

Russia air operations in Syria and Russia air operations in Ukraine are so different that its almost like two different countries led the war effort.

Very bizarre indeed and nothing like what we expected.

Few cyberattacks.
Maybe they are doing large scale electronic warfare but I really don't think so..
They've used Iskanders and Calibrs and they have done heliborne landings which failed and if the IL-76 is true, that is the second failure which is quite bad.

Russian special forces with SAA and airpower performed very well and it's like we are seeing none of that here at all. And a shockingly low amount of footage from both sides, I'd certainly expect Russia to hold the airspace in several parts of the country, but no sign of drone strikes and suicide drones at all.

If they are only using a fraction of their force, then they have achieved ALOT of ground, but if this is their main playbook, then it's not a good performance even if they succeed.