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Iranian Chill Thread

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So far we have not seen any evidence of serious losses. Israeli's love to show off evidence of their achievements and they religiously deny any casualties and losses. There is even a law in Israel which prevents journalists from publishing information regarding damage/casualties to military assets or personnel.

I'm hearing mixed information. Syrian sources say 2 dead, Chinese say 5 dead (CGTN), Israeli say 11 or 6 dead depending on the source (Jerusalem Post / Times of Israel).

Syria is saying 2 while "activists" are saying 11. However in many cases these activists are hardcore jihadists or anti Assadists and there is rarely any evidence to corroborate their claims.

Like I said in the big picture this changes nothing. However until the resistance front begins to work in unison, these attacks will not stop. For example, Israel launches 4 missiles, if Hezbollah were to reciprocate and launch 4 missiles, it would deter Israeli's. On the other hand it might escalate the situation. Most likely because these strikes have such little impact the Syrian government simply decides that the best course of action is not to escalate.

 
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If Iranians didn't yell "death to America" there still would have been sanctions from the US because of Israel, however other nations would have been less likely to cooperate with those sanctions since the chants make Iran appear to be aggressive and belligerent. Iran hasn't attacked any nation in 300 years but image / present impressions are everything.
Like I said, it's not the anti-western chants per se, it's the whole resistance ideology against western society and ideologies that Iran has adopted, or at least part of Iran, that makes western nations not eager to deal with Iran.

At the same time because Iran is no longer able to sell as much oil as it would like, it has forced Iran's economy to wean off of oil dependence and focus more on internal development and industry. Meanwhile many gulf Arab states are completely dependent on oil sales and they're pumping out as much as humanly possible.
I argue that Iran is still wholly dependent on fossil fuels to prop up its economy, not by exporting the fossil fuels, but by internal consumption of fossil fuels to produce and transport goods cheaply, with relatively high quality and thus competitively compared to other non-fossil fuel fortunate nations.

The price of oil has fallen recently and the world is slowly shifting towards newer, cleaner forms of renewable energy. At the same time the oil isn't going to last forever and the way things are going, when the gulf Arabs finally do run out one day, Iran will still have lots of energy reserves remaining for its internal consumption and for export.
The price of oil wil eventually rise in a post-covid economic boom/recovery and will approach normalcy like in pre-covid era but not fully reaching it immediately. Renewable energy is far from being as energy dense as fossil fuels and will not be a replacement of fossil fuels anywhere in the near and mid-term future (2040). And IMO renewable energy will never be as energy dense as fossil fuels have been and thus won't generate the same economic growth as fossil fuels have. In this, fossil fuel rich countries like Iran will indeed enjoy vast fuel reserves to either export and/or continue domestic consumption and production. But this comes at a price: continued destruction of the biosphere.

Iran's economy is set to grow in 2 years regardless. The deal with China can be beneficial however only time will tell whether it will work out in Iran's favor. Right now the Iranian government are just overjoyed to have defeated US efforts at the UN to extend the UN weapons embargo.
Sure, in a potential post-covid economic boom/recovery, Iran's economy will grow especially with the export of fossil fuels to countries including China and any potential Chinese investments in Iran if Iran ratifies the 25 year agreement.

Chinese do indeed believe in human rights. However their idea of human rights is people having access to food, medicine and vital necessities in life.

That is why I put it in quotation marks.

Iran without its vast energy resources would be a slightly better Pakistan. That is true for every nation that failed to industrialize and modernize with the use of primarily coal during the 1800-1950's and that to this day has no acces to its own fossil fuel reserves or low fossil fuel import prices for relatively cheap internal production and transportation.

After all, economy is an energy system, and money merely a claim on the output:
I can advise everyone to read Dr. Tim Morgan's excellent blog about the connection between energy and economy

Iran, like any other industrialized nation with vast fossil fuel reserves will fare economically wel, not despite of its fossil fuels, but because of it. It does come with one major drawback as I have previously argued. Destruction of the biosphere.

On a side note: If Iran didn't have a revolution and kept relative peace, then with the brilliance of the Iranian people, its vast fossil fuel wealth and acces to the world market, Iran would today economically and technologically speaking be at the very least between France and Germany. On average very close to Germany, like the Bavar-373 is close to the S-400, and at the very best surpassing Germany.
 
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Seems like Israël destroyed Syrian air defense sites, just like a couple months ago where they targeted Syrian early warning sites under construction.

Perhaps they want to make sure the sky above Syria is always clear for them to target whatever, whenever and however they want


If Assad cannot wait for another, at max 21 years, then it is easier for him to curb Iranian and by that extension Hezbollah's influence in Syria then it is to meaningfully retaliate and thus suffer a huge backlash and possible toppling, by not only Israël, but also the US.
 
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Iran is still dependent on fossil fuels but so is China, the USA and basically the entire developed world. Of course since Iran has the oil at it's disposal and produces a barrel of oil for something like $10, it only makes sense for Iran to continually take advantage of oil as a strategic resources. That's just a given.

Fossil fuels will still be part of the mix for a long time but within the next 20 years renewables will be a huge factor. Some nations, albeit only a few, are already banning gasoline based vehicles within the next few years. Iran is one of the leading if not the leading country in the region when it comes to investing in renewable energy.

Although Iran's biggest export is still oil, Iran is less dependent on the sale of oil than it's gulf neighbors and like I said the sanctions can be thought of as a blessing in disguise because they're forcing Iran to move away from it's dependence on oil. However it isn't just because of the sanctions. In recent years Iran's government has been striving to move away from oil dependence.

Iran currently produces over 1 million cars a year, is self sufficient in food production and overall has massive potential. Recently Iran went through the thick of things. Most likely, from here on out, things will gradually improve.

Saying that Iran would be a slightly better Pakistan without the oil is pure conjecture because if Iran didn't have oil then it would probably would have had a completely different foreign policy.

Saying that Iran would be on par with Germany / France if not for the revolution is also conjecture. It's possible but geography has a tremendous impact on a countries economic situation.

France, Germany are part of the European Union and right across the ocean from the USA. The more economically integrated a region is, the more prosperous the nations of that region will be. Iran's neighbors and it's geographic position arguably limits it's capabilities since many of Iran's neighbors are underdeveloped for various reasons. Also the middle east will probably never be as integrated as the European Union because of the political climate and constant tensions, contention between nations and ethnic groups.

Who are Iran's largest potential trading partners in the immediate vicinity ? Iraq ? Turkey ? Pakistan/India ? Saudi ? You can't compare those nations economies and relatively unstable political climates to France, Germany, UK, Spain, Norway, Swiss.

Then look at Japan. They have Korea, China, Thailand, Phillipines, and not too far from Australia and USA is across the ocean. You can't compare a setup like that to being surrounded by Iran's neighbors. Of course if Iran has a liberal democratic government and had a non interventionist, diplomatic, peaceful foreign policy, then it's economy would probably potentially be much more prosperous but again every country in the world is limited by it's geographic disposition.


Like I said, it's not the anti-western chants per se, it's the whole resistance ideology against western society and ideologies that Iran has adopted, or at least part of Iran, that makes western nations not eager to deal with Iran.


I argue that Iran is still wholly dependent on fossil fuels to prop up its economy, not by exporting the fossil fuels, but by internal consumption of fossil fuels to produce and transport goods cheaply, with relatively high quality and thus competitively compared to other non-fossil fuel fortunate nations.


The price of oil wil eventually rise in a post-covid economic boom/recovery and will approach normalcy like in pre-covid era but not fully reaching it immediately. Renewable energy is far from being as energy dense as fossil fuels and will not be a replacement of fossil fuels anywhere in the near and mid-term future (2040). And IMO renewable energy will never be as energy dense as fossil fuels have been and thus won't generate the same economic growth as fossil fuels have. In this, fossil fuel rich countries like Iran will indeed enjoy vast fuel reserves to either export and/or continue domestic consumption and production. But this comes at a price: continued destruction of the biosphere.


Sure, in a potential post-covid economic boom/recovery, Iran's economy will grow especially with the export of fossil fuels to countries including China and any potential Chinese investments in Iran if Iran ratifies the 25 year agreement.



That is why I put it in quotation marks.

Iran without its vast energy resources would be a slightly better Pakistan. That is true for every nation that failed to industrialize and modernize with the use of primarily coal during the 1800-1950's and that to this day has no acces to its own fossil fuel reserves or low fossil fuel import prices for relatively cheap internal production and transportation.

After all, economy is an energy system, and money merely a claim on the output:
I can advise everyone to read Dr. Tim Morgan's excellent blog about the connection between energy and economy

Iran, like any other industrialized nation with vast fossil fuel reserves will fare economically wel, not despite of its fossil fuels, but because of it. It does come with one major drawback as I have previously argued. Destruction of the biosphere.

On a side note: If Iran didn't have a revolution and kept relative peace, then with the brilliance of the Iranian people, its vast fossil fuel wealth and acces to the world market, Iran would today economically and technologically speaking be at the very least between France and Germany. On average very close to Germany, like the Bavar-373 is close to the S-400, and at the very best surpassing Germany.
 
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Iran Coronavirus numbers have fallen significantly since 1 month ago

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Iran Coronavirus numbers have fallen significantly since 1 month ago

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since 3-4 day ago we saw an increase in death toll
 
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