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Iranian Air Defense Systems

@PeeD and everyone else

I would like to know what your thoughts are on this: An Iranian SAM system in a similar dedicated role as the S-350 - let's just call it 'Bavar-313' - to counter swarms of low flying targets such as cruise missiles and drones over medium ranges. To be able to effectively handle potential saturation attacks of cruise missiles and drones, it should preferably be equipped with smaller surface-to-air missiles similar to the 9M96 missiles used in the S-350 and S-400 which would allow for a higher missile count per TEL (12 for the S-350/Bavar-313 as opposed to 4 for the S-400/Bavar-373). For instance, 3 TELs with 12 missiles each would enable 36 ready-to-fire missiles per battery.
Cruise missile saturation attacks as witnessed in Syria in 2017 and 2018 and drone swarm attacks as witnessed in Abqaiq last year are difficult-to-counter threats. This 'Bavar-313' may be redundant, however, if systems like the IRGC's Sayyad and/or the 15th Khordad already and sufficiently address these threats. Cost could also be an issue, for example, if we incorporate an entirely new missile (9M96 equivalent) in this system instead of the already mass-produced and cost-effective Sayyad-2 SAM.
 
Cost is always the key issue when it comes to saturation attacks:
AHR seeker equipped missiles are great to counter CM': Forward deploy a cheap and effective radar like the Kasta-2/Kavosh and shot one into that direction...
However this is only a approach if you are ready to sped the necessary money.
Iran is working on a different counter to that threat about which I don't feel ready to talk, although it's OSINT.
 
Me still like the Saeer when it comes to defend against CM saturation attack. A battery of 6 Saeer, automatic and remote controlled, can build a real wall of metal in the flightpath of a CM. If the ammunition is also programable when to explode (time fuse)due to induction while leaving the barrel, then this battery would even be able to paint a NO out of metal into the flightpath of the cm.
 
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Within the next year or so Iran needs to mass produce as many SAMs as it can. At least 12 battalions each of Bavar-373, Khordad-15 and Khordad-3 would be good coverage.

Bavar-373 is not a “cheap” system. Maybe @PeeD can shine more light on the cost. But 12 battalions of B-373 seems to be pretty expensive. Yes, Iran gets the benefit of cheaper production due to being Iranian system, lower cost of labor, etc. but still the technology used in B-373 is top of the line.

Just look at how little of S-300 Iran bought. Not nearly enough to cover the entire country and provide double envelops and retardation.
 
Necessary industrial management, coordination for such a monumental weapon system like the Bavar-373 may be the most difficult issue for Iran. We talk about hundreds of different subsystems for every Bavar battery.

So no, I don't see Iran doing the same it did with BM's here. BM's are difficult to develop, have tight tolerances and exotic materials, but their subsystems are 10's. One large factory can produce it with 1-2 supplying factories, not so for the Bavar.
One battery every quarter of the year, would be realistic for now. Let's see when serial production starts.

100mm Sadid is a great asset against CM's but is point defence in nature. The goal is a affordable area defence against CM's (city scale).
 
100mm Sadid is a great asset against CM's but is point defence in nature. The goal is a affordable area defence against CM's (city scale).

Sure one need a lot of Saeer and they all have to be integrated into greater fire control system and ammunition have to be time fused AHEAD/KETF ammunition. With effective range of 20-40 km of each one can secure a greater area if the range radius of each Saeer overlap with the radius of all neighbor Saeer systems.


Due to CM are programmable to different flightpath and also do flying low, best use of such a variant of Saeer is to put them in Blocks of 20 at strategic places in Iran. Every radius overlap lets say 50% with the radius of the neighbor Saeer and formation is 3-4 rows. An such blocks can stay somewhere in Iran at flat places like desserts, e.g. between Birdschand and Kerman. 10 of that Saeer blocks there and then a lot of CM comming from US-bases in Afghanistan will die there. And so one can draw lines with such blocks everywhere in Iran to make the flightpath for the CMs to their aim very difficult if not end them.
 
@PeeD and everyone else

I would like to know what your thoughts are on this: An Iranian SAM system in a similar dedicated role as the S-350 - let's just call it 'Bavar-313' - to counter swarms of low flying targets such as cruise missiles and drones over medium ranges. To be able to effectively handle potential saturation attacks of cruise missiles and drones, it should preferably be equipped with smaller surface-to-air missiles similar to the 9M96 missiles used in the S-350 and S-400 which would allow for a higher missile count per TEL (12 for the S-350/Bavar-313 as opposed to 4 for the S-400/Bavar-373). For instance, 3 TELs with 12 missiles each would enable 36 ready-to-fire missiles per battery.
Cruise missile saturation attacks as witnessed in Syria in 2017 and 2018 and drone swarm attacks as witnessed in Abqaiq last year are difficult-to-counter threats. This 'Bavar-313' may be redundant, however, if systems like the IRGC's Sayyad and/or the 15th Khordad already and sufficiently address these threats. Cost could also be an issue, for example, if we incorporate an entirely new missile (9M96 equivalent) in this system instead of the already mass-produced and cost-effective Sayyad-2 SAM.

I don’t know who told you S-350 is an dedicated CM AD, it is more along the lines of a dedicated ABM system.

S-300 and S-400 will never be economical to engage CM swarms as Russia systems typically launch 2 missiles for every one target to achieve high PK

Sure one need a lot of Saeer and they all have to be integrated into greater fire control system and ammunition have to be time fused AHEAD/KETF ammunition. With effective range of 20-40 km of each one can secure a greater area if the range radius of each Saeer overlap with the radius of all neighbor Saeer systems.


Due to CM are programmable to different flightpath and also do flying low, best use of such a variant of Saeer is to put them in Blocks of 20 at strategic places in Iran. Every radius overlap lets say 50% with the radius of the neighbor Saeer and formation is 3-4 rows. An such blocks can stay somewhere in Iran at flat places like desserts, e.g. between Birdschand and Kerman. 10 of that Saeer blocks there and then a lot of CM comming from US-bases in Afghanistan will die there. And so one can draw lines with such blocks everywhere in Iran to make the flightpath for the CMs to their aim very difficult if not end them.

You can have 100 of those systems, but if they don’t have high EW/ECW rating then they will all be jammed or disrupted and if even 25% CMs get through and hit the high value target (TEL, OTH, nuclear facility, command center, etc) then it’s over.
 
You can have 100 of those systems, but if they don’t have high EW/ECW rating then they will all be jammed or disrupted and if even 25% CMs get through and hit the high value target (TEL, OTH, nuclear facility, command center, etc) then it’s over.

Jamming against Saeer? How does it look like? Also If only 25% CM would go through as you said ,it would be wonderful. But 25% is unrealistic. Me think about 50-65% of CM goes through. And thats a good qoute for that cheap layer of defence.
 
Background?!
short range air defense system.jpg
 

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