This is what I
wrote 9 months ago when Iran was singing songs of peace in the Caucasian region:
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Azerbaijan maintaining close relations with Israel might irritate Iran, but isn't the reason why it mobilized its forces under the pretext of an exercise to channel some important messages to Azerbaijan and Turkey.
The reason why Iran is now telling Azerbaijan that its planned land-grab in Armenia's Syunik province will mean an Iranian intervention at the behest of Armenia, is because the much-sought-after Zangezur corridor by Turkey and Azerbaijan, which they forced upon Armenia during the previous war, would alter the strategic reality in the Caucasus at the expense of Iran's core geo-political and economic interests.
That is why Iran mobilized. It is in line with the red line that Iran clearly established during the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War, when Azerbaijan was making inroads on the Armenian-Iranian border and correctly sensed the ulterior motives at play behind this conflict by Turkey and Azerbaijan. Armenia hastily agreed to a corridor through its lands which would connect Turkey with mainland Azerbaijan, as its forces were suffering heavy casualties and a defeat was all certain.
Iran was caught off-guard. But whereas Armenia agreed to the corridor under heavy pressure, Iran was already telling Azerbaijan and Turkey that their intended project would not be accepted by it. That warning apparently wasn't correctly received either in Baku or Ankara, since Erdoğan and Aliyev were again starting to pressure Armenia for the past few weeks to allow the corridor to be established (or to face force). The latest exercise between Turkey, Azerbaijan and Pakistan was intended to finally pressure Armenia into submission.
This is when Iran finally decided to take matter in its own hand. The subsequent mobilisation by Iran amounts to a serious show of force, saying that if Azerbaijan/Turkey try to open the Zangezur corridor by force, Iran will step in militarily. It is by this military posturing that Iran has announced its return to the Caucasian theatre. No longer will it stand idly as regional countries try to alter the strategic reality at its expense.
This is also why the Armenian Foreign Minister is currently in Tehran, and the Secretary of Armenia's Security Council met Iran's Ambassador yesterday. Iran is bolstering its relations with Armenia to a
strategic level, which will have huge ramifications for the Caucasian theatre. Expect new Iranian transit roads to Armenia that will bypass Azerbaijan and effectively block the planned Zangezur corridor from ever happening. Also expect closer military relations between Armenia and Iran, with Iranian military technology and weaponry suddenly finding its way to Armenia's armed forces.
The time that Iran overlooked the Caucasus is over.
Thanks for bringing up the crucial geo-economic dimension of the issue, which up until now had been largely overlooked here. Namely, potential joint Azarbaijani-Turkish attempts to block the land corridors which form part of Iran's long-planned and UN-endorsed North-South trade routes, effectively gaining control over Iran's access points to Russia, Eastern Europe and the northwestern Eurasian landmass. Factor in that the most immediate and pressing challenge Iran is currently faced with, is economic in nature. Especially given maximum economic pressure and sanctions exerted by America, as well as eight years of negligence (or even deliberate sabotage as some suspect) by the Rohani administration.
In contrast to Rohani and his western-apologetic liberal team, who had made the Iranian economy fully dependent on the conclusion of a comprehensive agreement with the west, agreement which would have come at the expense of Iran's security and deterrence power considering the steadily increasing concessions demanded by the US regime under constant zionist incitement (to include Iranian missiles and regional presence into negotiations, to accept FATF conditions etc), the new Raisi cabinet has pledged to refocus Iran's economic policy towards reliance on domestic resources and boosting of national production in spite of sanctions, enhancement of trade with Iran's neighbors and fast-tracking the development of the international trade corridors designed to position Iran as a major transit area between China, Russia and the rest of the world.
Another issue is that Iran invested a lot in assisting the Iraqi and Syrian governments overcome the year-long and intensive armed insurgencies targeting them. Yet, other players seem to be reaping the economic fruits of this effort, due both to the Rohani administration's lack of interest and also to a deliberate policy orchestrated by Washington via its regional associates to try and undermine relations between Iran and her own allies and partners - a policy we saw implemented in Iraq with the backing of anti-Iran demonstrations, in Syria with the return of PGCC states attempting to secure economic reconstruction contracts at the expense of Iran etc.
Hence why for Iran, ensuring the expansion and security of her economic trade channels with traditional allies and partners has become vital at this point in time. Thus, Azarbaijani and Turkish eyeing of Armenia's Syunik province is of a dubious nature with regards to Iran's core interests and even to Iran's very social and political stability in the years to come.
Even though they will not officially present it under an anti-Iranian light, Ankara and Baku must be well aware that this sort of an endeavour can only antagonize Tehran. After all, both these states are strategic-level allies of Isra"el" and Turkey is a NATO member of top of it, therefore Iran can hardly be asked to agree that one of its main economic access points to the outside world should dependent on the good will of the named parties seeing how there is no guarantee that they will indefinitely allow unimpeded exchanges from and to Iran. Especially if this is to occur in the wake of illegal land grabs by Baku's military. Needless to say, recent moves by Republic of Azarbaijan authorities imposing heavy transit duties on Iranian trucks do not exactly alleviate Iranian concerns in this regard, and send worrying signals as far as Baku and Ankara's ulterior motives are concerned.
Add to this Erdogan's announcement of "future victories" at December 2020 parade in Baku, as well as how subsequent remarks he made at the same event represented an indirect affront to Iranian territorial integrity. Couple the above with the death threats issued by a Baku-based activist against the representative of Iran's Supreme Leader in Ardabil (the local Friday prayer, a Muslim cleric), and finally with the declaration made in recent weeks by the secretary of a major political party of Azarbaijan who inappropriately dragged Pakistan into the affair (by claiming that in case of a war between Iran and Azarbaijan Republic, Pakistan would invade Iran). Then an Iranian commander during the present "Fātehine Kheybar" drills explained that fighters from Syria which Turkey introduced into the Karabakh area are still present there. In view of all these events, Iran's legitimate and pressing concerns become all too clear.
However, I believe there's one additional aspect which needs to be insisted upon: in all these recent episodes witnessed across the southern Caucasus, which pose a serious security challenge to Iran, the
US and zionist regimes are far from being uninvolved bystanders. These main adversaries of Iran are discretely playing an orchestrating role in the background.
Indeed, some readers will probably remember how in the later period the Trump administration, US think tanks and Beltway pundits published a series of research papers, analyses or opinion pieces advocating to make certain concessions to Erdogan in return for increased Turkish cooperation against Iran, initially in the Syrian context. Also, considering the simultaneous failure of the JCPOA and the absence of a viable military option to subdue Iran, Tel Aviv has increased its efforts to stoke "ethno"-linguistic strife within Iranian society, and is viewing the economic pressures Iranians are being subjected as a trigger for unrest. And to Isra"el", the Republic of Azarbaijan has always been of prime importance in this scheme, given the relative numerical weight of the Azari community compared to other linguistic groups of Iran.
More revealing even, in recent statements some institutions in the US and/or Isra"el" are explicitly on the record for defining as a priority to cut off Iran from outside markets including within her immediate neighborhood, in order to neutralize Tehran's efforts to circumvent sanctions as well as the impact of President Raisi's social welfare policies on the working class, in hopes of keeping intact or increasing the pressure on Iranian citizens and thereby generating popular uprising against the Islamic Republic.
