Biden has two options -diplomacy or war
Diplomacy:
a) Biden rejoins old JCPOA---which if fine for Iran
b) Biden imposes more sanctions trying to force Iran to renegoniate JCPOA---in this case Iran expels IAEA inspectors, installs thousands of IR-6 centrifuges, enrich uranium as much as it wants, tests Zuljanah ICBM and eventually develops nuclear weapon
IF in response to b) Iran boosts its nuclear program---then only solution left for Biden is military strike, however this is not a good option
US can destroy Natanz and Fordow, but they can't destroy acquired knowledge---Iran follows all international rules, but as a result of US aggression, Iran will withdraw from NPT and start a secret nuclear weapon program somewhere inside the mountains and without being accountable to international community. Without occupation of Iran's territory, US won't be able to stop Iran's secret WMD program
At the same time, Iran's response in the Straight of Hormuz and attack against regional oil infrastructure will be devastating for global economy and US economy in particular.
Before talking about US military strike, we should understand the current state of US economy
All monetary and fiscal instruments to revive US economy are already exhausted:
1) they can't lower Federal Reserve interest rate in order to stimulate US economy, because interest rates reached 0% and can't be lowered
2) they can't lower taxes to stimulate their economy, because taxes are already low
3) they can't start a massive stimulus program, because US debt is already 130% of GDP and further borrowings will raise interest rates in the economy and this will hurt recovery
In short, US economy is in a state of Great Depression and major oil shock due to war in the Persian Gulf is the last thing US needs
If Iran will close the Straight of Hormuz and attack regional oil infrastructure and oil price will go up to 150$ per barrel, already weak US economy will experience these negative economic consequences:
1) inflation---price of gasoline and petrochemicals will go up--- the more dollars Americans spend on gas, the less dollars they will spend on other goods which means recession
2) decline of exports----US exports 2,5 trl$ worth of goods to East Asia and Europe, and now there will be a massive crises in East Asia and Europe if Iran closes the Straight of Hormuz---so US exports to these regions will fall and this will exacerbate US recession
3) Stock market crash---investors will realize that economy goes down and they will start mass sale of stocks which means US stock market will crash
^^ US economy is already in bad shape and massive oil shock is the last thing they need and this means that military option is OFF THE TABLE
As you can see, rejoining old JCPOA is the best option for USA
Iran was too patient during Trump years, --- massive boost of nuclear program in response to US withdrawal from JCPOA could have been the best response from Iran
