Going-away present?: Pakistan looking at LNG import from Qatar
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Going-away present?: Pakistan looking at LNG import from Qatar – The Express Tribune
IP seems to be a fair deal to me.
A fair deal? I disagree, but then again, differing opinions are what make for interesting discussions. We shall soon see just how this pipeline helps or complicates our energy situation.
Please do read the following and try to explain how the price at the IP border has increased as the project has evolved:
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http://www.epw.in/system/files/pdf/...of_IranPakistanIndia_Natural_Gas_Pipeline.pdf
5 Negotiations over Price
The pricing for natural gas supply from Iran, apart from security
concerns, has been a major sticking point in the IPI pipeline negotiations.
While the Iranian point of view was to align the natural
gas price to the price of LNG, India and Pakistan proposed a more
realistic approach that would keep the piped gas economical for
investment in the pipeline infrastructure. The volatility in the
crude oil price, which has scaled new peaks over the last couple
of years, took the leverage away from the buyers. From the Indian
point of view, transportation charge and transit fee are the additional
issues to be negotiated bilaterally with Pakistan.
The commercial interests from the three countries in the IPI
pipeline are being extended through three representative
agencies
– the National Iranian Gas Export Company (NIGEC),
Interstate Gas Systems Private and GAIL. Iran, India, Pakistan
have jointly appointed Gaffney, Cline and Associates (GCA), a UK
based consultant, to provide an independent professional view
on the appropriate price to be charged for the natural gas at the
point where the pipeline crosses the border between Iran and
Pakistan.
A pricing methodology based on the netback from price
of LNG at Japan has been agreed upon by the three countries. The
GCA is to arrive at a price for natural gas after taking into account
transportation up to Iran-Pakistan border.
The GCA based its netback calculations on the following:
(a) cost of LNG in Japan; (b) LNG shipping cost from the Persian
gulf to Japan; (c) cost of gas liquefaction in Iran; (d) cost of gas
processing for LNG mode and pipeline mode; and (e) estimated
pipeline transportation cost from Assaluyeh to the Iran-Pakistan
border [Infraline 2007b].
During the fourth trilateral JWG meeting held at Tehran on
January 24-25, 2007, net back calculations and price derivation
done by GCA were discussed. In response to reservations by India
and Pakistan, Iran suggested a formula for gas price up to
Pakistan-
Iran border during the JWG meeting on February 22-23,
2007 in Islamabad. The agreed formula links the price of delivered
gas to the price of JCC. While Iran and Pakistan agreed to
the proposed formula subject to approval by the respective governments,
India agreed to respond to pricing formula with in four
weeks.
The formula for the gas delivered at the Iran-Pakistan
border is as follows (ibid):
For JCC price less than $ 30/bbl
P = 1.54 + 0.05* JCC;
st JCC < 30
For JCC price in the range $ 30 – $ 70/bbl
P = 1.15 + 0.0633* JCC;
st 30 ≤ JCC ≤ 70
For JCC price greater than $ 70/bbl
P = 2.06 + 0.05* JCC;
st JCC > 70
where p denotes the price of delivered gas at Iran-Pakistan border
(in $ per MMBtu) and JCC – price of Japan custom cleared
crude (in $ per barrel).
At the prevailing JCC price of about $ 70/bbl, the natural gas
supplies at the Iran-Pakistan border would be $ 5.04/MMBtu.
Adding a normative transportation and tariff charge, the cost
insurance and freight price of the gas at the Indian border would
be approximately $ 5.84/MMBtu. The associated assumptions and
their reasonableness are further discussed in Section 7. This is
lower than the $ 7.17/MMBtu which Tehran sought in mid-2006
but higher than the Indian plan to peg the gas at $ 4.25/MMBtu.
The merits of the landed price of natural gas for India are examined
later in Section 7. The other two important issues, namely,
the transportation charges and transit fee to be paid to Pakistan
are discussed below.