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Iran nuclear deal, 2018.

http://thehill.com/opinion/internat...isis-tehran-sows-the-seeds-of-its-own-decline

In Iran’s water crisis, Tehran sows the seeds of its own decline
BY TZVI KAHN, OPINION CONTRIBUTOR — 05/26/18 10:00 AM EDT
THE VIEWS EXPRESSED BY CONTRIBUTORS ARE THEIR OWN AND NOT THE VIEW OF THE HILL
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© Getty Images
“I have returned” to Iran, tweeted a newly appointed environmental official charged with resolving the country’s water crisis, “with the hope of creating #hope.” Within months, however, that hope evaporated – and he found himself arrested, interrogated, and facing a government-coordinated smear campaign.

Kaveh Madani, a Western-educated Iranian water expert, formally resigned in April in the wake of spurious charges of disloyalty to the Islamist regime. The rise and fall of the deputy head of Iran’s Department of the Environment not only reflects Tehran’s chronic mismanagement of its water resources. Rather, it also mirrors the years-long drought of talent in Iran, which continues to face a spiraling “brain drain” as its citizens flee the regime’s repressive rule.



It wasn’t supposed to end this way. Born in Tehran in 1981, Madani first left the country after college, obtaining a master’s degree in water resources from Sweden’s Lund University and a doctorate in civil and environmental engineering from the University of California. He quickly gained a global reputation for his research and expertise. He won prestigious awards from the American Society of Civil Engineers and the European Geosciences Union. He conducted a TedX talk about global water scarcity. He appeared in Al Jazeera and BBC documentaries. He received a professorship at Imperial College London.


Eventually, his work caught the attention of the Iranian government, which faced a burgeoning, decades-old environmental predicament of its own. Nationwide water shortages, which Madani described as “unprecedented,” had generated widespread social discontent. Key rivers dried up. Millions of Iranians moved from the countryside to cities. Long before nationwide demonstrations began in late December of 2017, protests routinely punctuated affected areas. If the water shortage persists, warned Isa Kalantari, the head of Iran’s Department of the Environment, in a 2015 interview, 50 million Iranians will need to relocate to survive.

Madani placed the lion’s share of culpability on regime mismanagement. “The government blames the current crisis on the changing climate, frequent droughts, and international sanctions, believing that water shortages are periodic,” he wrote in a 2014 paper. However, he noted, “these exogenous issues are only crisis catalyzers, not the main cause of the water crisis.” Iranians, he argued, “have failed to invest sufficiently into developing a resilient water management system.”

In September 2017, Tehran announced Madani’s appointment as the deputy environment chief. The development constituted an unusual milestone for Iran. First, it represented an implicit, and atypical, acknowledgement by the regime of its own failures — not to mention a willingness to consider the counsel of external critics. Second, it marked the rare return of a prominent Iranian professional from the diaspora, to which millions of Iranians have retreated since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

President Hassan Rouhani has repeatedly pledged to reverse the exodus by respecting democratic norms and improving economic opportunity in Iran. And before long, Madani became a symbol of expatriate return, a role he willingly embraced. “There are a lot of people abroad, waiting and watching closely to see what’s going to happen,” he said in December. “If I succeed, we might see more people coming back to help the government.”

But it was not meant to be. Notwithstanding Rouhani’s efforts, Tehran has long regarded Iranians with Western ties, particularly dual nationals, as potential threats to its entrenched Islamist ideology. In this conspiratorial worldview, the West seeks to undermine the regime by infiltrating the country with foreign values contrary to Shiite Islam. Although Madani lacks citizenship in another country, his years living in the United States and Europe proved sufficient to trigger intense suspicion within the clerical regime.

Thus, the regime began spying on Madani as soon as he returned to Iran, breaking into his personal computer and accounts. In February, Tehran briefly arrested and interrogated him. Days later, the newspaper Kayhan, which Iran’s supreme leader controls, accused him of spying for enemy governments and incorrectly identified him as a dual national. On March 31, Tasnim, a news site affiliated with the regime, posted a photo of Madani dancing at a private party with a woman not wearing the mandatory hijab, or headscarf.

In mid-April, Madani resigned and left Iran, confirming the news on Twitter. “Yes,” he wrote on April 17, “the accused fled from a country where virtual bullies push against science, knowledge and expertise and resort to conspiracy theories to find a scapegoat for all the problems because they know well that finding an enemy, spy or someone to blame is much easier than accepting responsibility and complicity in a problem.” The regime remained unmoved. On April 22, Kayhan published an article titled, “His debauchery aside, Madani’s primary crime was espionage.”

The grim story of Madani’s fleeting career in government offers a potent metaphor for the ideologically driven myopia that lies at the heart of the Islamic Republic. At a time when nationwide protests – animated in part by the water crisis – continue to threaten the clerical regime’s viability, Tehran’s anti-Western paranoia has stymied its ability to enact the very measures that not only would help stabilize its grip on power, but also would ensure the country’s very survival. In the name of self-preservation, the government effectively sows the seeds of its own decline.

“This is a lesson for Iranian experts living abroad!” tweeted Iranian lawmaker Mahmoud Sadeghi after learning of Madani’s resignation. But it may offer a more troubling lesson for Iranians still living at home. As Iranian journalist Nahid Molavi put it, “It might be a simple thing for you to resign and leave, but for us it means the extinction of the last flickers of hope.”

Tzvi Kahn is a senior Iran analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy. Follow him on Twitter @TzviKahn.

{LOAD COMMENTS LINK}

once again : Iran, invest in green tech, not weapons tech!
you're on the right path in solar power, now do the same for water please!

READ THIS, IRANIAN LEADERSHIPS : https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/wate...ns-and-their-neighbours.547222/#post-10301457

It appears to now very much apply to you too.


And needless to say, so it does for any country with water shortages or an increased need for farming (without resorting to extortion-based (neutered!) genetically modified crops!).

http://www.euronews.com/2017/07/31/largest-solar-power-plant-in-iran-opens

IRAN
Largest solar power plant in Iran opens
By Euronews

last updated: 31/07/2017
Largest solar power plant in Iran opens

The newly opened Mokran Solar Power Plants Complex is the latest proof of Iran’s ambitions in renewable energy.

The country’s biggest solar plant was constructed in the eastern province of Kerman in six months and has a capacity of 20 megawatts.

Made up of two 10 megawatts photovoltaic units, it was financed with 27 million dollars by the Swiss company Durion AG, and supervised by a German company, Adore.

The complex has been built with a total number of 76 thousand and 912 solar panels, each producing 260 watts in an area of 44 hectares.

A number of countries including Switzerland, Germany, Spain, China and South Korea have shown interest in investing in renewable energies in Iran. The Iranian Energy minister. Hamid ChitchianI, says there have been offers of over 3.5 billion dollars in foreign investment so far and ii is the most attractive field since the nuclear deal.

President of the German Energy Watch Group, Hans Josef Fell, says “now solar and wind technologies are very, very cheap. Cheaper, than energy from gas, oil, coal or nuclear so, we can replace the conventional energy systems with 100 percent renewable in the future.”

Mokran Solar Energy company has also started the construction of a 100 megawatts solar power plant, which energy experts bet will be Middle East ‘s largest.

With over 300 sunny days and an average of 2800 hours of sunshine, Iran is considered one of the best countries for producing and using solar energy.

This potential and the incentives offered by the government have provided worthy opportunities for investing in this field.

Iran planned to use renewable energies two decades ago, but its progress has been sluggish. Out of the 76 thousand megawatts capacity of Iran’s power plants, only 12 thousand megawatts come from renewable energies, with the largest share from hydroelectric energy.

However, solar, wind, biomass, geothermal and small hydro turbines have been increasing recently.
 
https://www.rt.com/usa/429094-trump...tm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS

Ahead of North Korea summit, Trump softens Iran rhetoric
Published time: 8 Jun, 2018 02:16
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Iranians protest against US President Donald Trump's decision to walk out of a 2015 nuclear deal © Tasnim News Agency / Reuters
Discussing the upcoming summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Singapore, US President Donald Trump seemingly strayed off-topic to hold out the prospect of a new nuclear deal with Iran.
“Iran is not the same country that it was a few months ago,” Trump told reporters at the White House at a joint press conference on Thursday with Japanese PM Shinzo Abe.

Iran’s leaders are “much different” in recent months, Trump said, and they are no longer looking to the Mediterranean or causing trouble in Syria and Yemen. Trump had accused Tehran of having “malign influence” in the Middle East in early May, when he announced the US would be withdrawing from the JCPOA arrangement negotiated by the Obama administration in 2015.

Read more
Trump promises Iran 'highest level' of sanctions, 'bigger problems' if nuclear research continues
Pointing to the upcoming denuclearization talks with North Korea, Trump said he hoped the Iranian leadership would “come sit down with us and we can make a deal that’s good for everybody.”

“We’re going to be fine, with respect to Iran,” Trump said.

This echoed the remarks he made towards the end of his May 8 speech, when he offered up the prospect of a “new and lasting deal, one that benefits all of Iran and its people.” He had harsh words for the Iranian government at the time, however, accusing it of being a “dictatorship”that has held the country “hostage” for almost 40 years.

In 1979, Iranians overthrew the pro-US monarchy and established an Islamic republic. The revolutionaries held 52 American Embassy staff hostage for over a year, demanding the extradition of Shah Reza Pahlavi, who received asylum in the US. Washington later encouraged Iraqi President Saddam Hussein to invade Iran, starting an eight-year conflict that claimed up to 1.5 million lives.

Trump’s harsh rhetoric and economic sanctions against Iran match the posture he took towards North Korea since taking office, calling Kim “Little Rocket Man” and strangling the country with the policy of “maximum pressure.” His tone changed drastically in recent months, after Kim offered to give up nuclear weapons in exchange for security guarantees and made overtures to South Korea, paving the way for the historic summit with Trump scheduled for next week.

i'm very happy to see Iran on this new course! :)
 
message to all Iranian leaderships : i can only help you reduce pressure on your economy if you stay compliant with the JCPOA and continue your new course of peaceful activism instead of militant-ism outside your borders.

and i can be of significant help, i think. much like i was before, which is something i can not go into in public for reasons of sheer effectiveness of such efforts by me.
i'm willing to once again invest large swaths of time to help you, but i'm both unwilling and unable to help if you do not grant these reasonable requests.

see also https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/trum...ding-after-tense-summit.567455/#post-10629422
 
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/07/23/politics/trump-iran-intl/index.html

(CNN)President Donald Trump has launched a furious all-caps rebuke of Iran, declaring on Twitter that any threats to the US would be met with unspecified dire consequences.

Iran would "SUFFER CONSEQUENCES THE LIKES OF WHICH FEW THROUGHOUT HISTORY HAVE EVER SUFFERED BEFORE," Trump warned in a tweet posted on Sunday night.
Trump's angry tirade apparently came in response to earlier remarks by Iran's President Hassan Rouhani, who warned the US that war with Tehran would be the "mother of all wars."
In his comments, Rouhani warned Trump not to "play with the lion's tail, because you will regret it eternally." He also held out the possibility of a peaceful relationship with the US, in remarks reported by Iranian state media.

Donald J. Trump

✔@realDonaldTrump

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1021234525626609666

To Iranian President Rouhani: NEVER, EVER THREATEN THE UNITED STATES AGAIN OR YOU WILL SUFFER CONSEQUENCES THE LIKES OF WHICH FEW THROUGHOUT HISTORY HAVE EVER SUFFERED BEFORE. WE ARE NO LONGER A COUNTRY THAT WILL STAND FOR YOUR DEMENTED WORDS OF VIOLENCE & DEATH. BE CAUTIOUS!

5:24 AM - Jul 23, 2018
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Trump sent his message at 11.24 p.m. Sunday after returning to the White House from a weekend at his golf resort in Bedminster, New Jersey. He addressed his comments directly at Rouani: "WE ARE NO LONGER A COUNTRY THAT WILL STAND FOR YOUR DEMENTED WORDS OF VIOLENCE & DEATH," he wrote.
Even by Trump's standards, the language was harsh. A senior officer in Iran's Revolutionary Guards, Commander General Gholam Hossein Gheibparvar, described Trump's remarks as "psychological warfare," the semi-official ISNA news agency reported Monday.
Before Trump's tweet, the US administration had already ratcheted up the rhetoric against Tehran.
In a blistering speech earlier on Sunday evening, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo likened the Iranian regime to the mafia, accusing the clerics that rule the country of enriching themselves and funding terrorism at the expense of ordinary Iranians.
"To the regime, prosperity, security, and freedom for the Iranian people are acceptable casualties in the march to fulfill the Revolution," Pompeo said in remarks delivered at the Ronald Reagan National Library in Simi Valley, California.
"The level of corruption and wealth among regime leaders shows that Iran is run by something that resembles the mafia more than a government."
Among the most startling allegations leveled by Pompeo, who was CIA director before becoming secretary of state, was that Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has a personal hedge fund worth $95 billion.
Strong language
Trump's strong language had echoes of his approach to North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un, whom he taunted and threatened on social media before agreeing to a summit.
Yet the remarks were particularly vehement, and surprised many Middle East watchers.
"We've seen a lot of very bellicose words from Mr. Trump in the past, but this tweet ... I think it takes it to a new level," said CNN military analyst Rick Francona.
"This seems to be a little out of character and really a little alarming for many people," said Francona, a former US Air Force intelligence officer who worked in the Middle East and retired as a lieutenant colonel. "This is really dangerous."
Trump came into office vowing to take a hard line on Iran and scrap the Obama-negotiated nuclear deal of 2015, a promise he fulfilled in May.
The agreement forced Iran to curtail its uranium enrichment capacity to prevent it developing nuclear weapons, and imposed stringent verification processes, in exchange for relief on crippling sanctions.
One of Trump's many criticisms of the accord, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), was that it did not do enough to stop Iran from funding extremist groups throughout the Middle East.
The other signatories to the deal have vowed to stand by it.
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How will US pulling out of deal impact Iranians? 01:39
For its part, Iran has shown no signs of reneging on the deal, motivated by the benefits of sanctions relief. But Washington is preparing to reimpose some of the punishing sanctions that brought Iran to the table in the first place.
"Right now the United States is undertaking a diplomatic and financial pressure campaign to cut off the funds that the regime uses to enrich itself and support death and destruction," Pompeo said Sunday.
"We are asking every nation who is sick and tired of the Islamic Republic's destructive behavior to join our pressure campaign."



---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Peacefan Netherlands <peacefan.netherlands@gmail.com>
Date: 23 July 2018 at 11:25
Subject: why Iran should (perhaps as quietly as possible) back down to (nearly) all of the US' demands.
To: {Iranian foreign ministry}
Cc: {US government}


simply put : because you put your population in severe stress and discomfort during the economic attrition phase, let alone the regime-change phase that might follow and the possibly messed-up again handling of the aftermath of regime-change.

and Iranians also have no chance of either letting this erupt in a larger war against the US,
or to actually win either the economic war or the regime-change war that might well follow.

what you need to do, is back down gracefully. without too many US-friendly announcements, but *also* without too many or too intense anti-US messages.

that is the only way you can get guys like me to apply secret idealogical+debating pressure to get the US to back down from their plans for economic war against Iran *and* regime-change.

it's the only way you can keep things pleasant for your leaders, your troops, and your people, Iranians!

and note this : i wouldn't have taken the route the US has taken against Iran, "if i were US President". which i'm not. i'm Dutch, for starters.
as a hypothetical US President, i would have instituted a separate sanctions program targeting the Iranian government leaders and the Iranian military over their support (verbal, material, personnel, etc) for militant actions outside Iran (not for your support for Assad, since the Russians are on board for that too), and i would have stayed in the JCPOA.

but the fact is, i'm a Dutch civilian who is well-versed in history going back to 1930 or so, and current geopolitical events.
i need certain conditions to be met by some governments some time, to make progress towards sustained peace and prosperity instead of wars,
using primarily email and web-forms to send messages to governments and mass-media outlets, and forums to discuss things with other well-read-up laymen.
and i have seen successes doing that, in the past.
 

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