scythian500
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I thought its lower.. I have checked its growth charts.. Growth seems to be good... so I think Pakistan will be fine..
One bless Pakistan has is his China cooperation thing.. China is enough to make Pak great.. They have all the needed science and tech and more importantly enough money to invest in Pak... There is a visible will by Chinese leaders too... U know what.. Pak has never be worried about markets to sell its products... China alone can buy all of it..
So, pragmatic China proved to be more useful for Pak than the whole Islamic world combined...
24 billion of exports is a good start.. with current rate of Chinese investments and existing infra your exports could easily grow to 100 billions in 15 to 20 years if not sooner...
Although for a nation the size of Pakistan, in order for its people to taste the difference, you need to at least export 200 billions.. Your economy will be sized between 1 to 1.5 trillions then (3 to 5 trillions PPP).. and this means Pakistan could become a huge source of investment herself.. With more reforms and more self confidence among Pakistanis, it is easily doable ..
To my eyes, what Pakistan needs to focus on is first to fix security issues in whole Pakistan... Then reform its investment rules in favor of Pakistani diaspora. Why? Because even now Pakistani workers remit something around 20 billion dollars every year. This means if Pak gov can design a very attractive package with security of funds and tax cuts and exceptions for a decade or two, then, a big portion of these money would be converted into new Pakistani enterprises that can contribute a lot to Pak economy.
Imagine you prepare three investment packages for three targets. One for Chinese public and private sector investments... Second package for Pakistani diaspora in form of initiating accumulative or cooperative funds to collect small remittances into bigger funds. Third for PGCC countries investment..
Pakistani Gov should offer very competitive tax exemptions to these three categories if they bring employment and exports to Pak. The infra made through these tax exemptions will stay there and would act as turbo pump of money, employment and second tier investment that comes back to market through spending.
If I was in charge, I would have focus on these fields:
- IT and Tourism in form of directing investments to North East and Southern Makran resorts and spa. (This can generate 15 to 30 mils of tourists and 15 to 30 billion dollars of cash + another 5 to 10 billions from IT call centers and software industry)
- New universities who can train enough quality graduates for different sectors. These unis could be branches of more sophisticated Chinese or European universities.
- Agriculture in form of reforming techniques and equipment. Letting big Chinese and Arab or Pakistani companies get active in this field and then share gains with people and the gov. ( Easily can generate 30 to 50 billions of exports plus an strategic role in world food security)
- Should encourage China to make huge petro-chemical cities in Makran. They (Chinese companies) can import oil and gas from nearby Iranian or Arab exporters and make much more valuable exportable products in these cities. Hence, generating huge pile of cash for the gov. (Easily can generate 20 to 30 billions of exports)
- Making similar cities for textile in Punjab with the assist of Chinese or International brands. You can easily be a dominant force in world textile market due to previous experience and huge number of human resources available. (Can easily generate 50 to 70 billions)
- Renewable energy plants with the direct help of China. Imagine how much space is wasted on South and South West of Pak that can be used to initiate huge solar cities. (This can generate 5 to 10 billions in form of selling it to all aforementioned factories and investments in addition to your local needs)
- Sport wear has its reputation already. You just need to make sure to encourage local or international brands to come and form local branches or local cooperatives that can absorb and manage millions of less educated work force and turn into 10 to 20 billions of sport wear exports.
I think Pakistan has good relative or absolute advantage in aforementioned fields. So, they can use it. Pak does not need to step in industries who they have less chance in succeeding in presence of more agile competitors... Fields like armament, ship building, Space, Auto manufacturing, mines and heavy industries are fields that Pak need to stay a way at least until they can generate enough investments for other fields first.
The secret to make the population support these plans is to make poorer, mostly uneducated work force have better paid jobs. Agriculture, sport wear and textile fields can easily serve this purpose. Govs are always gonna have corruption. Pakistan can become a wealthy productive nation even with the existence of some corrupt leaders. What is important is to believe in yourself and start working yourself even if Gov does not help a lot. As I said Pakistani remits alone is a huge force to push forward these plans... Only if enough patriot Pakistanis step in... Ordinary people or Pakistani diaspora need to see working and successful examples.. So, it is up to pioneers who take the first steps...
