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NKorea rocket launch draws more worry than Iran's - Boston.com
North Korea first tried to launch a satellite back in 1998. It tried again in 2006 and 2009, but international observers say neither succeeded.
Iran launched its first satellite aboard an Iranian-built rocket in 2009 and its second in June last year. In February, it successfully launched the Navid satellite into orbit with a missile launch-vehicle called the Safir.
But playing the satellite card has two big pluses for North Korea and Iran.
The launches augment data for military programs and at the same time boost national pride, just as the U.S., Soviet and, more recently, Chinese space programs have done for their countries.
Iran and North Korea claim their satellite launches are for strictly peaceful purposes, and say they have a sovereign right to space programs.
Recent satellite work by South Korea could complicate efforts to get North Korea to stop, said physicist David Wright of the Union of Concerned Scientists.
"South Korea has developed a space launcher -- interestingly, using Russian technology -- and has been trying to place satellites in orbit," Wright said. "South Korea is currently negotiating with the U.S. to allow it to deploy missiles with longer range -- the current range limit is 300-600 kilometers (185-370 miles). So North Korea is likely feeling a double standard, and probably does not want to be shown up by South Korea."
Cooperation between Iran and North Korea on missile technology goes back at least two decades.
Iran is believed to have begun cooperating with North Korea on the development of a medium-range missile in the early 1990s. The North Koreans also provided Soviet-designed Scud short-range ballistic missiles and the industrial and technical infrastructure for Iran to produce the missiles domestically.
"Iran is now considered more advanced than the North Koreans in missile technology -- particularly in the category of solid-fueled missiles," said Greg Thielmann, a former senior U.S. intelligence official who is now at the Washington, D.C.-based Arms Control Association. "I think Iran no longer needs North Korean help to continue making advances in improving its ballistic missiles."
Thielmann said Iranian launches suggest it is making significant progress.
"The second stage of the Safir-2 space launch vehicle exhibited technical features -- gimbaled engines and higher-energy fuel -- not previously seen in either Iran or North Korea," he said. He also said Iran is developing a two-stage, solid-fuel, medium-range ballistic missile that is "superior to any the North Koreans possess."
Iran's claim to having ambitions beyond missile testing for its satellite program is also seen as more credible than North Korea's. It has followed a rather predictable pattern of developing its space program with considerable foreign cooperation, which North Korea has shown little interest in.
"In Iran, you can observe a rational, logical, slow but steady program that is aimed at space launches, with expected failures and impressive successes," said Markus Schiller, an analyst with Schmucker Technologie in Germany and a leading expert on North Korean missiles. "In North Korea, you only see singular events now and then, with no clear line or rationale visible."
Schiller said military analysts will be watching closely to see how much the Unha-3 rocket North Korea plans to launch resembles the Iranian Safir. The upper stages of the rocket North Korea used in its 2009 launch bore several similarities to the Safir, which suggests ongoing collaboration between the two programs.
"It is known that North Korean rocket experts were in Iran in the 1990s," he said. "Personally, I would expect a continuing cooperation between these countries on the missile-rocket sector, but it remains unclear to what degree they still cooperate."
North Korea first tried to launch a satellite back in 1998. It tried again in 2006 and 2009, but international observers say neither succeeded.
Iran launched its first satellite aboard an Iranian-built rocket in 2009 and its second in June last year. In February, it successfully launched the Navid satellite into orbit with a missile launch-vehicle called the Safir.
But playing the satellite card has two big pluses for North Korea and Iran.
The launches augment data for military programs and at the same time boost national pride, just as the U.S., Soviet and, more recently, Chinese space programs have done for their countries.
Iran and North Korea claim their satellite launches are for strictly peaceful purposes, and say they have a sovereign right to space programs.
Recent satellite work by South Korea could complicate efforts to get North Korea to stop, said physicist David Wright of the Union of Concerned Scientists.
"South Korea has developed a space launcher -- interestingly, using Russian technology -- and has been trying to place satellites in orbit," Wright said. "South Korea is currently negotiating with the U.S. to allow it to deploy missiles with longer range -- the current range limit is 300-600 kilometers (185-370 miles). So North Korea is likely feeling a double standard, and probably does not want to be shown up by South Korea."
Cooperation between Iran and North Korea on missile technology goes back at least two decades.
Iran is believed to have begun cooperating with North Korea on the development of a medium-range missile in the early 1990s. The North Koreans also provided Soviet-designed Scud short-range ballistic missiles and the industrial and technical infrastructure for Iran to produce the missiles domestically.
"Iran is now considered more advanced than the North Koreans in missile technology -- particularly in the category of solid-fueled missiles," said Greg Thielmann, a former senior U.S. intelligence official who is now at the Washington, D.C.-based Arms Control Association. "I think Iran no longer needs North Korean help to continue making advances in improving its ballistic missiles."
Thielmann said Iranian launches suggest it is making significant progress.
"The second stage of the Safir-2 space launch vehicle exhibited technical features -- gimbaled engines and higher-energy fuel -- not previously seen in either Iran or North Korea," he said. He also said Iran is developing a two-stage, solid-fuel, medium-range ballistic missile that is "superior to any the North Koreans possess."
Iran's claim to having ambitions beyond missile testing for its satellite program is also seen as more credible than North Korea's. It has followed a rather predictable pattern of developing its space program with considerable foreign cooperation, which North Korea has shown little interest in.
"In Iran, you can observe a rational, logical, slow but steady program that is aimed at space launches, with expected failures and impressive successes," said Markus Schiller, an analyst with Schmucker Technologie in Germany and a leading expert on North Korean missiles. "In North Korea, you only see singular events now and then, with no clear line or rationale visible."
Schiller said military analysts will be watching closely to see how much the Unha-3 rocket North Korea plans to launch resembles the Iranian Safir. The upper stages of the rocket North Korea used in its 2009 launch bore several similarities to the Safir, which suggests ongoing collaboration between the two programs.
"It is known that North Korean rocket experts were in Iran in the 1990s," he said. "Personally, I would expect a continuing cooperation between these countries on the missile-rocket sector, but it remains unclear to what degree they still cooperate."
