Interview with Pakistan Air Force Chief of Air Staff Tahrir Rafiqui Butt

[Viking 63]

He is not talking about any new procurements ?? No mention of J-10Bs or addidtional F-16s. !!!

 

[Jungibaaz]

He is not talking about any new procurements ?? No mention of J-10Bs or addidtional F-16s. !!!

Forget about the J-10, literally, erase your mind of a J-10 for the PAF, the PAF just like the rest of the country is suffering from prolonged poor economic conditions.

Besides, there's little that I can think of that the J-10B would offer us that we couldn't put on our JF-17, no capability, we couldn't get our JF-17 to do, give or take on the effectiveness.

Same goes for F-16's, we have a decent fleet still undergoing upgrades to bring the old up to AM/BM standard. PAF loves F-16's, but funds are everything and relations with the US aren't exactly rosey.

 

[Pakistanisage]

@jaibi , My assessment of the situation is that JF-17 Block II induction will proceed slowly as PAF explores various upgrade possibilities to counter IAF induction of 4.5 generation fighters. This is like trying to catch a moving train or shoot at a moving target. The situation is very fluid and with each new induction of State of the Art aircraft by IAF, PAF has to scramble to plug the gaps created by IAF buying spree. Pakistan Air Force is extremely pleased with JF-17 Thunder Program and is fully invested in its continued growth. However , since JF-17 will end up replacing all the obsolete inventory, PAF has to keep an eye out on what IAF is acquiring to ensure that JF-17 don't become obsolete versus IAF new inventory. In plain English, that simply means going slow with the upgrades to ensure the upgraded versions can counter IAF's new acquisitions.

Also keep in mind PAF's great love affair with the F-16's. PAF has 30+ years of fabulous experience with the F-16's and has had two to three generations of Fighter Pilots and Aeronautical Engineers with tremendous knowledge of handling and know-how of this beautiful aircraft. Additionally, our Turkish friends have acquired the TOT to overhaul and upgrade these aircrafts to Block C/D standards which is great help to PAF. I believe when CAS mentions that PAF is on the lookout for other possibilities, he is referring to acquisition of older F-16's (BLK A/B ) and upgrade , with US acquiescence of course. Till such time that PAF acquires 5th Generation Fighters ( possibly earliest by 2020 , if not later), PAF would hope to replace all of its obsolete inventory with these two Fighters ( Upgraded JF-17's and upgraded F-16's ).

As far as J-10's are concerned, it is my assessment that under the prevailing circumstances , even though nothing is edged in stone, for most part, PAF is losing interest in the induction of J-10. There are varied reasons for this development and let me list those item by item:

1. The biggest and foremost is of course money. At 40 to 50 million USD a piece the aircraft is out of PAF Financial Budget , if acquired in large numbers ( i.e. 150 to 250 aircrafts). Now I know some of the PDF members are going to say, PAF was planning to acquire only 36 J-10 aircrafts so why are you talking about 250. Let me share with you an insight that few people here know or think about. When you induct a new aircraft, you have to train Pilots , Engineers and Technicians on that new aircraft. It is just not cost effective to buy a small number of a highly sophisticated State of the Art Aircraft and then set up training and maintenance facilities for Pilots and Engineers to support that. This is the main reason why most Air Forces of the World prefer to have no more than 3 to 4 types of Fighters because the cost factors are not just the cost of aircrafts but the support infrastructure that comes at the back end of such induction. If PAF decide to acquire J-10B, it would need to acquire more than just two Squadrons.

2. The second reason why it makes sense for PAF to hedge its bets on J-10 is that with the upgrade of JF-17 Blk II , the difference between the Thunder and J-10B is shrinking. So in the end if we end up with more advanced Avionics and Radar ( even if the JF-17 Radar is PESA vs. J-10B AESA), it is still preferable to stick with upgraded JF-17 as opposed to buying J-10B at three times the price.

3. In the end, PAF would prefer to induct a 5th Generation Fighter as the next acquisition, even if it means having to wait till 2020. IAF inductions of Rafale or other 4.5 Gen Fighters won't materialize before 2017/2018 timeframe. In the mean time PAF will try to plug the Technology GAPS with the upgrades of Thunder and Viper.

 

[Pakistanisage]

@jaibi or @WebMaster , can we kindly correct the title.

The name of Present Chief of Air Staff is Tahir Rafique Butt ,

and not,

Tahrir Rafiqui Butt as mentioned in the Title of this thread.

Thanks

 

[Rajput_Pakistani]

@jaibi , My assessment of the situation is that JF-17 Block II induction will proceed slowly as PAF explores various upgrade possibilities to counter IAF induction of 4.5 generation fighters. This is like trying to catch a moving train or shoot at a moving target. The situation is very fluid and with each new induction of State of the Art aircraft by IAF, PAF has to scramble to plug the gaps created by IAF buying spree. Pakistan Air Force is extremely pleased with JF-17 Thunder Program and is fully invested in its continued growth. However , since JF-17 will end up replacing all the obsolete inventory, PAF has to keep an eye out on what IAF is acquiring to ensure that JF-17 don't become obsolete versus IAF new inventory. In plain English, that simply means going slow with the upgrades to ensure the upgraded versions can counter IAF's new acquisitions.

Also keep in mind PAF's great love affair with the F-16's. PAF has 30+ years of fabulous experience with the F-16's and has had two to three generations of Fighter Pilots and Aeronautical Engineers with tremendous knowledge of handling and know-how of this beautiful aircraft. Additionally, our Turkish friends have acquired the TOT to overhaul and upgrade these aircrafts to Block C/D standards which is great help to PAF. I believe when CAS mentions that PAF is on the lookout for other possibilities, he is referring to acquisition of older F-16's (BLK A/B ) and upgrade , with US acquiescence of course. Till such time that PAF acquires 5th Generation Fighters ( possibly earliest by 2020 , if not later), PAF would hope to replace all of its obsolete inventory with these two Fighters ( Upgraded JF-17's and upgraded F-16's ).

As far as J-10's are concerned, it is my assessment that under the prevailing circumstances , even though nothing is edged in stone, for most part, PAF is losing interest in the induction of J-10. There are varied reasons for this development and let me list those item by item:

1. The biggest and foremost is of course money. At 40 to 50 million USD a piece the aircraft is out of PAF Financial Budget , if acquired in large numbers ( i.e. 150 to 250 aircrafts). Now I know some of the PDF members are going to say, PAF was planning to acquire only 36 J-10 aircrafts so why are you talking about 250. Let me share with you an insight that few people here know or think about. When you induct a new aircraft, you have to train Pilots , Engineers and Technicians on that new aircraft. It is just not cost effective to buy a small number of a highly sophisticated State of the Art Aircraft and then set up training and maintenance facilities for Pilots and Engineers to support that. This is the main reason why most Air Forces of the World prefer to have no more than 3 to 4 types of Fighters because the cost factors are not just the cost of aircrafts but the support infrastructure that comes at the back end of such induction. If PAF decide to acquire J-10B, it would need to acquire more than just two Squadrons.

2. The second reason why it makes sense for PAF to hedge its bets on J-10 is that with the upgrade of JF-17 Blk II , the difference between the Thunder and J-10B is shrinking. So in the end if we end up with more advanced Avionics and Radar ( even if the JF-17 Radar is PESA vs. J-10B AESA), it is still preferable to stick with upgraded JF-17 as opposed to buying J-10B at three times the price.

3. In the end, PAF would prefer to induct a 5th Generation Fighter as the next acquisition, even if it means having to wait till 2020. IAF inductions of Rafale or other 4.5 Gen Fighters won't materialize before 2017/2018 timeframe. In the mean time PAF will try to plug the Technology GAPS with the upgrades of Thunder and Viper.

Could not agree more with your analysis. I would like to add that (and its purely my PoV) that at the end PAF would like to have 4 categories in its inventory.

1. JF17 (All blocks)--->Replace--->Mirages/F7s
2. J10B--->Replace/Supplement--->F16s (This will be middle tier as sooner or later US will impose embargoes on Pakistan and PAF will again have to conserve its F16 fleet strength). J10B will remain a viable option for Pakistan, when countering IAF 4.5 Generation planes. J10B with AESA and advance IRST will be a perfect counter to Rafael & MKIs.
3. PAF is and will be foreseeing induction of 5th Generation Stealth. Only option is China. Now when and how this will happen is questionable still, but sooner or later this will needed to be done.
4. UAVs (Armed/Surveillance)

Now point 2 and 3 require lots of financing and wait for Chinese product development life cycle completion. This should be post 2018 plan for now. Point 1 is on track pretty much. PAF should concentrate on Point 4 as much as possible. This is a cost effective yet great way to plug the gaps. In-house development and Chinese/Turklish input could give PAF an edge over its adversary.

 

[jaibi]

It was my typo mistake, thank you for pointing it out, sir. @Aeronaut, brother can you please correct the title? Or @Oscar thanks guys.

@jaibi or @WebMaster , can we kindly correct the title.

The name of Present Chief of Air Staff is Tahir Rafique Butt ,

and not,

Tahrir Rafiqui Butt as mentioned in the Title of this thread.

Thanks

Thank you for such a detailed analysis, sir. I must say that it makes sense to me, a layman, as well. I basically see the problems for our defence from a civilian point of view and a more systematic view: we cannot sustain a modern defence force with such a battered economy. Indian efforts to focus on the economy and indigenous capabilities seems to be paying off since the 90s.

Also, sir, I've heard that the f-16s can be our Achilles' Heel because their spares and high tech equipment needed to maintain them would be hard to get if the US-Pak relations suffer, which they seem to be heading for in the light of the new anti-drone drama. In such a case, the cost of maintaining them would increase much more. Is that accurate?

Sir, if Iran can develop indigenous capabilities, if I am not wrong, cannot we do so as well? Just an opinion: instead of focusing on the short term acquisitions, if we could focus on trying to go for total indigenousiation by 2020 or so would that not be of greater use?

@jaibi , My assessment of the situation is that JF-17 Block II induction will proceed slowly as PAF explores various upgrade possibilities to counter IAF induction of 4.5 generation fighters. This is like trying to catch a moving train or shoot at a moving target. The situation is very fluid and with each new induction of State of the Art aircraft by IAF, PAF has to scramble to plug the gaps created by IAF buying spree. Pakistan Air Force is extremely pleased with JF-17 Thunder Program and is fully invested in its continued growth. However , since JF-17 will end up replacing all the obsolete inventory, PAF has to keep an eye out on what IAF is acquiring to ensure that JF-17 don't become obsolete versus IAF new inventory. In plain English, that simply means going slow with the upgrades to ensure the upgraded versions can counter IAF's new acquisitions.

Also keep in mind PAF's great love affair with the F-16's. PAF has 30+ years of fabulous experience with the F-16's and has had two to three generations of Fighter Pilots and Aeronautical Engineers with tremendous knowledge of handling and know-how of this beautiful aircraft. Additionally, our Turkish friends have acquired the TOT to overhaul and upgrade these aircrafts to Block C/D standards which is great help to PAF. I believe when CAS mentions that PAF is on the lookout for other possibilities, he is referring to acquisition of older F-16's (BLK A/B ) and upgrade , with US acquiescence of course. Till such time that PAF acquires 5th Generation Fighters ( possibly earliest by 2020 , if not later), PAF would hope to replace all of its obsolete inventory with these two Fighters ( Upgraded JF-17's and upgraded F-16's ).

As far as J-10's are concerned, it is my assessment that under the prevailing circumstances , even though nothing is edged in stone, for most part, PAF is losing interest in the induction of J-10. There are varied reasons for this development and let me list those item by item:

1. The biggest and foremost is of course money. At 40 to 50 million USD a piece the aircraft is out of PAF Financial Budget , if acquired in large numbers ( i.e. 150 to 250 aircrafts). Now I know some of the PDF members are going to say, PAF was planning to acquire only 36 J-10 aircrafts so why are you talking about 250. Let me share with you an insight that few people here know or think about. When you induct a new aircraft, you have to train Pilots , Engineers and Technicians on that new aircraft. It is just not cost effective to buy a small number of a highly sophisticated State of the Art Aircraft and then set up training and maintenance facilities for Pilots and Engineers to support that. This is the main reason why most Air Forces of the World prefer to have no more than 3 to 4 types of Fighters because the cost factors are not just the cost of aircrafts but the support infrastructure that comes at the back end of such induction. If PAF decide to acquire J-10B, it would need to acquire more than just two Squadrons.

2. The second reason why it makes sense for PAF to hedge its bets on J-10 is that with the upgrade of JF-17 Blk II , the difference between the Thunder and J-10B is shrinking. So in the end if we end up with more advanced Avionics and Radar ( even if the JF-17 Radar is PESA vs. J-10B AESA), it is still preferable to stick with upgraded JF-17 as opposed to buying J-10B at three times the price.

3. In the end, PAF would prefer to induct a 5th Generation Fighter as the next acquisition, even if it means having to wait till 2020. IAF inductions of Rafale or other 4.5 Gen Fighters won't materialize before 2017/2018 timeframe. In the mean time PAF will try to plug the Technology GAPS with the upgrades of Thunder and Viper.

 

[Storm Force]

Your F16 fleet is your double edged Sword.

On the one hand it is the only fighter that can go toe toe with the now very large fleet of SU30MKI around 170 today...

On the flip side USA & indian interests/relationship are very closely tied and coupled with the israeli/indian lobby dont be surprised if the F16s are starved of supplies during a short war with india.

It means the only answer to over 300 Su30mki and modernised Mirage2000-5 with micas & well over Mig29smt & MIG29K is the JFT thunder...

It this moment i time the Thunder mk2 will have to be massively improved in block 2 versions to take on such mature and vastly upgraded mirage 2000/mig 29 fighters.

Even if the MMRCA is never signed by IAF and i think that could happen the indians have far superior air power now and in the forseeable future.

FOR THE INDIANS their real delimmea is how to face a PLAAF fielding
800 Flankers./J10 combo and this can partialy be addressed by rafale/LCA mk2 but both programmes way behind schedule ...

 

[Munir]

The Indians had many times numerical and quality advantages. What makes you sure that they will make the difference this time with even lower numbers?

Marketing an huge plane like MKI as superduper is fine. But now please provide historical data where this plane was better then an opponent. I mean it is not stealth, it is huge, it has huge IR and there are several alternatives to counter it.

The reality is that India cannot be sure to beat PAF and there is no way it can come close to PLAAF.


The issue with many poster is that they have no clue what they say. It is like repeating the mantra that LCA is 5th generation and JF17 is merely F16A. Probably that is the reason that many senior posters need some rest to recover from these kind of posts.

 

[satishkumarcsc]

The Indians had many times numerical and quality advantages. What makes you sure that they will make the difference this time with even lower numbers?

Marketing an huge plane like MKI as superduper is fine. But now please provide historical data where this plane was better then an opponent. I mean it is not stealth, it is huge, it has huge IR and there are several alternatives to counter it.

The reality is that India cannot be sure to beat PAF and there is no way it can come close to PLAAF.


The issue with many poster is that they have no clue what they say. It is like repeating the mantra that LCA is 5th generation and JF17 is merely F16A. Probably that is the reason that many senior posters need some rest to recover from these kind of posts.

Going by your logic the US does not need the F 15 or for that even the F 22.

The Su 30's size is an advantage as it can carry a more powerful radar, a better jammer, more payload, Better EW systems, has more loiter time and hence can perfor more missions in a single flight. Even if you can detect the aircraft you need to reach it and hit it. The Hi-Lo combination is not just for show. No airforce can afford to have only the high end aircrafts.

If the PAF had the funds they whould have already opted for the J 11/J10 combination over the JF 17.

 

[Pakistanisage]

It was my typo mistake, thank you for pointing it out, sir. @Aeronaut, brother can you please correct the title? Or @Oscar thanks guys.


Thank you for such a detailed analysis, sir. I must say that it makes sense to me, a layman, as well. I basically see the problems for our defence from a civilian point of view and a more systematic view: we cannot sustain a modern defence force with such a battered economy. Indian efforts to focus on the economy and indigenous capabilities seems to be paying off since the 90s.

Also, sir, I've heard that the f-16s can be our Achilles' Heel because their spares and high tech equipment needed to maintain them would be hard to get if the US-Pak relations suffer, which they seem to be heading for in the light of the new anti-drone drama. In such a case, the cost of maintaining them would increase much more. Is that accurate?

Sir, if Iran can develop indigenous capabilities, if I am not wrong, cannot we do so as well? Just an opinion: instead of focusing on the short term acquisitions, if we could focus on trying to go for total indigenousiation by 2020 or so would that not be of greater use?

Pakistan Air Force is well known for acquiring older versions of the aircrafts they are using just so that they can cannibalize them for spare parts. PAF would be highly interested in buying used F16's just for that purpose, as well as using ones with good airframes for Midlife Upgrade to add to the Inventory. Not long ago, Alan Warnes wrote an excellent article " Pakistan' Amazing Mirages " and in that article he highlighted the fact how PAF was so successful in buying used Mirages ( Mirage III and V) for Spare Parts and even Upgrades ( i.e. Rose upgrade ). Keep in mind that over 4500 F-16 have been built so far and so as some of the more resourceful Air Forces of the World move on to 4.5 Generation aircrafts, some of these older F-16 might be on the market for resale for very inexpensive price. PAF engineers have done wonders with older versions of Mirages acquired low price and used them to keep our Mirages flying.

PAKISTAN'S AMAZING MIRAGES

 

[jaibi]

Thank you for clearing that up, sir, I know of the resilience of PAF as my nana served there and his narrations are always fresh in my mind

Pakistan Air Force is well known for acquiring older versions of the aircrafts they are using just so that they can cannibalize them for spare parts. PAF would be highly interested in buying used F16's just for that purpose, as well as using ones with good airframes for Midlife Upgrade to add to the Inventory. Not long ago, Alan Warnes wrote an excellent article " Pakistan' Amazing Mirages " and in that article he highlighted the fact how PAF was so successful in buying used Mirages ( Mirage III and V) for Spare Parts and even Upgrades ( i.e. Rose upgrade ). Keep in mind that over 4500 F-16 have been built so far and so as some of the more resourceful Air Forces of the World move on to 4.5 Generation aircrafts, some of these older F-16 might be on the market for resale for very inexpensive price. PAF engineers have done wonders with older versions of Mirages acquired low price and used them to keep our Mirages flying.

PAKISTAN'S AMAZING MIRAGES

 

[Munir]

Going by your logic the US does not need the F 15 or for that even the F 22.

The Su 30's size is an advantage as it can carry a more powerful radar, a better jammer, more payload, Better EW systems, has more loiter time and hence can perfor more missions in a single flight. Even if you can detect the aircraft you need to reach it and hit it. The Hi-Lo combination is not just for show. No airforce can afford to have only the high end aircrafts.

If the PAF had the funds they whould have already opted for the J 11/J10 combination over the JF 17.

According to your logic india is plain stupid to build LIGHT combat aircraft. And it even failed in that.

You (indians) are obsessed with bigger is bettter. Everything you wrote is so outdated. You should turn b747 into fighterjet.

 

[Spring Onion]

The Indians had many times numerical and quality advantages. What makes you sure that they will make the difference this time with even lower numbers?

Marketing an huge plane like MKI as superduper is fine. But now please provide historical data where this plane was better then an opponent. I mean it is not stealth, it is huge, it has huge IR and there are several alternatives to counter it.

The reality is that India cannot be sure to beat PAF and there is no way it can come close to PLAAF.


The issue with many poster is that they have no clue what they say. It is like repeating the mantra that LCA is 5th generation and JF17 is merely F16A. Probably that is the reason that many senior posters need some rest to recover from these kind of posts.

Munir I guess you are from DT forum? if yes then PDF needs your presence for good input on military, topics.

 

[satishkumarcsc]

According to your logic india is plain stupid to build LIGHT combat aircraft. And it even failed in that.

You (indians) are obsessed with bigger is bettter. Everything you wrote is so outdated. You should turn b747 into fighterjet.

Well LCA is for numbers and is an interceptor. But it can never do an offensive strike over enemy skies as it does not have the range nor the payload capacity. The same is faced by the JF 17s also. Just because you cant prove me wrong doesnt make me stupid.

The Su27/F15s are for air dominance and superiority. The JF 17s and The LCAs are for interception and point defence duties as the cost of keeping an aircraft of F 15/Su 27 caibre is much higher.

 

[Storm Force]

Munir the Chinese are indicting hundreds of flankers Su27/30 j11 and j15....

They designed and built the fc,1.and they wil not by buying even one.

That speaks a thousand words....

For your small budget limted operational doctrine of pak airspace defence the jft is fine...for the likes of Russia China and india we need force mutliplers long range dominance...of our own and the adversary air space....

Without f16 or equivalent fighter your air power is limted very limted...

You need more f16s or 100.j10/rafale type mmrca in the near future...