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‘Intelligent Pakistani generals recognise India’s strength’

Mytime

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‘Intelligent Pakistani generals recognise India’s strength’ with Anatol Lieven, Chair of International Relations and Terrorism Studies at King’s College, London analyses pressing geopolitics in his book Pakistan: A Hard Country.

As participants at the Bonn Conference pledged continued support to stabilising Afghanistan, Lieven spoke with Sameer Arshad about tense US-Pakistan ties, Afghanistan’s future – and how India-Pakistan dynamics might just pan out:


How will recent Nato airstrikes killing Pakistani troops impactUS-Pakistanrelations?
The attack on Pakistani troops does not transform the landscape between the US and Pakistan – but it marks further worsening of an already decaying relationship. There was never a chance that Pakistan would launch a military offensive against the Afghan Taliban or the Haqqani network, as the US was demanding. The key question now is whether Pakistan will continue its blockade of Nato supplies to Afghanistan. If so, there’ll be an end to US aid to Pakistan and increased US military pressure along the border. If not, the relationship will return to a troubled but partly cooperative state.
In the longer term, the question is whether the US will seek a peace settlement with the Afghan Taliban or commit itself to a permanent military campaign against them by the Afghan National Army – with Pakistan on the opposite side.

How different are the Afghan Taliban from the Pakistani ones?
The Taliban in Pakistan and Afghanistan are very close in their ideology but face different directions. The Afghan Taliban are fighting the US and the Karzai government in Afghanistan. The Pakistani Taliban are seeking Islamist revolution in Pakistan. The Pakistani Taliban are a loose coalition of different groups, the Afghan Taliban are more united…
Pakistan will not get an Afghanistan wholly controlled by the Taliban and under Pakistani influence. The strength of non-Pashtun ethnicities and the US, India and Russia’s opposition make that impossible…But India is also unlikely to see a united Afghanistan under a friendly government which excludes the Taliban and exercises real authority in the Pashtun areas.

You’ve mentioned India – in your book, you write of a changed mindset amongst Pakistani generals vis-a-vis India. Could you elaborate?
There has not been any fundamental change among the vast majority. But some of the more intelligent Pakistani generals recognise that India’s growing strength – and their weakness – mean Pakistan cannot possibly prevail in this contest. Such figures may have a genuine will to seek compromise – as General Musharraf demonstrated after 2002.
If it proves impossible to persuade the high command to give up most of its positions on Kashmir, then they may be more flexible on secondary issues like Afghanistan.

Would the ISI let tensions with India cool?
The ISI is immensely powerful in areas where it has a direct role, like support for militants in India and Afghanistan…the ISI is not supreme within the military itself. It is subject to the high command and the other intelligence service, Military Intelligence, balances it. It would not be in a position to block the high command’s majority decision.

You say regarding Kashmir, India could get the greater part of what it has wanted by offering concessions – what does that involve?
Any settlement will have to recognise Indian sovereignty over the Indian-controlled part of Kashmir and the LoC as an international frontier. This would mean on central issues, India had won. In return, as with the British in Northern Ireland, on every secondary issue – cross-border institutions, human contacts, trade, large-scale demilitarisation – India should be prepared to show the greatest possible flexibility. I don’t know whether this would work – but nothing else would.

http://epaper.timesofindia.com/Default/Scripting/ArticleWin.asp?From=Archive&Source=Page&Skin=TOINEW&BaseHref=TOIBG/2011/12/09&PageLabel=16&EntityId=Ar01601&ViewMode=HTML
 
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The ISI is immensely powerful in areas where it has a direct role, like support for militants in India and Afghanistan.
Oooops! The cat's out of the bag, what? :woot: Now since the whole world knows the games being played by the ISI in sponsoring terror in India as well as Afghanistan, especially through their notorious 'S' Wing, why doesn't Pakistan have the courage to admit it openly?
:pop:
 
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I agree with the last part..
It is time to settle Kashmir and time for decision makers on both sides to dump their ego's.
Its time for the Pakistani establishment to let go and agree to the LOC as a soft border..
and time for India to pull back and let Kashmir's live their lives as they see fit.
Both sides can "control" the land they already do.. but let the people that live in them go about with a normal life.
 
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I agree with the last part..
It is time to settle Kashmir and time for decision makers on both sides to dump their ego's.
Its time for the Pakistani establishment to let go and agree to the LOC as a soft border..
and time for India to pull back and let Kashmir's live their lives as they see fit.
Both sides can "control" the land they already do.. but let the people that live in them go about with a normal life.

Who do you think we have on each side who can sell this to the aam junta without fear of political debacle?? These lousy politicos will trade even ...... for money.
 
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Who do you think we have on each side who can sell this to the aam junta without fear of political debacle?? These lousy politicos will trade even ...... for money.

Modi wont.. he needs the hardline to win the elections and stay in power.
Singh tried, but was drowned out by the more exploitative members of his party.

The PPP cannot.. no true leader there.
PML(N) wont.. they will cozy up to the establishment to keep the seat.
Im not even sure PTI will here.. that is an untried variable.

Which brings me to the most unlikely candidate..
which is the establishment of Pakistan itself.
Somehow they hold the only key to resolving this issue by swallowing this down with serious difficulty and admitting that they are no longer able to hold the reins of power in Pakistan through the Kashmir bait.
Some professional and realistic generals will have to take the initiative.
 
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Oooops! The cat's out of the bag, what? :woot: Now since the whole world knows the games being played by the ISI in sponsoring terror in India as well as Afghanistan, especially through their notorious 'S' Wing, why doesn't Pakistan have the courage to admit it openly?
:pop:


If a western journalist or an Indian one, labelled another of ISI's wing as the X wing or the X-men? Or the Watchmen? would you still believe them ? Probably you will.

Indians and their paranoia with the ISI and its 'wings'...

I mean, S-wing....lol what the f**k.
 
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Ok bhai logo tum log powerful ho hum kamzor han ab khush ho jao , ab jao aur kuch thanda p k ao
 
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I think its really up to the pakistanis when it comes to decide when to end this kashmir issue.

Indians never claim the pakistan occupied kashmir, they recognize it a part of pakistan and they really don't have any intentions to reoccupy it. It is only that india doesn't want to lose even an inch of indian occupied kashmir.

I think neither pakistanis nor indians want to give up their respectively held parts of kashmir.

So only solution can be recognize LOC as international border. This solution in the past always had government and political class's backing here in india. So i really don't see any issues with this solution from indian point of view. Kashmir is not at all a big issue for india and in her politics

Only thing that complicate this entire issue is paksitani claim over kashmir and pakistan backed terror activities in india in the name of jehad.

Paksitanis simply cannot expect india to give up their claims over indian administered kashmir, i mean, does this solution can find any takers in india?? It will be foolish from paksitan to expect india to agree on this.

So its really up to pakistanis to decide when end this issue. India only takes aggressive stance when its national interests are damaged such as terror strike.

I am saying to all pakistani people who are aware of the true history of india-pakistan, india never attacked pakistan under any circumstances, india only fought war when it was imposed on her by pakistanis. Read any neutral source and one can find this simple truth. The biggest question in front of pakistan is whether to continue hamper growth and prosperity of their nation for a piece of land and for how many years???

Of course one may disagree to the solution i have mention but frankly speaking, does any one has a better idea than this which has the maximum chance of acceptability to all sides??
 
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Modi wont.. he needs the hardline to win the elections and stay in power.
Singh tried, but was drowned out by the more exploitative members of his party.

The PPP cannot.. no true leader there.
PML(N) wont.. they will cozy up to the establishment to keep the seat.
Im not even sure PTI will here.. that is an untried variable.

Which brings me to the most unlikely candidate..
which is the establishment of Pakistan itself.
Somehow they hold the only key to resolving this issue by swallowing this down with serious difficulty and admitting that they are no longer able to hold the reins of power in Pakistan through the Kashmir bait.
Some professional and realistic generals will have to take the initiative.

This alternative given by you is the only viable option as the Indians wouldn't mind having the status quo for peace and in your country only the Army can convince the public. 100% true. Sad that Musharaff could have done this but schematics of the game changed rapidly.
 
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Modi wont.. he needs the hardline to win the elections and stay in power.

You are probably wrong in this assumption. Perhaps he is the only leader who can go for the permanant solution to this issue, at least in india. In india kashmir is not an issue upon which you can fight and win election, only exception can be when any party gives up claim over kashmir. If LOC is accepted as International border, nobody will have any problem with that, even to the hardliners.
 
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I agree with the last part..
It is time to settle Kashmir and time for decision makers on both sides to dump their ego's.
Its time for the Pakistani establishment to let go and agree to the LOC as a soft border..
and time for India to pull back and let Kashmir's live their lives as they see fit.
Both sides can "control" the land they already do.. but let the people that live in them go about with a normal life.

I Wish the leaders on both sides would think on your lines and move on ... Imran has on a few occasions hinted on these lines but Neither in India nor in Pakistan we presently have leaders who have the power and courage to settle the dispute in such a manner ....

The authors views in the last para makes sense too , If pak agrees to have LOC as IB or even soft IB then India should be flexible in all other sensitive issues to pakistan including water sharing and Indias lesser role in Afghan ... so that lasting peace can be ensured between the two countries !
 
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Ok bhai logo tum log powerful ho hum kamzor han ab khush ho jao , ab jao aur kuch thanda p k ao

Its not a question of Kamzor or Powerful ... its a question of who controls what , India will surely not let pakistan take away Indian portion of Kashmir by use of force or through diplomacy ... neither is India demanding pakitan to give back Pakistan portion of Kashmir to us , So whats the point of fighting over it for another 60 yrs and achieve nothing ... rather lets sit back and convert LOC into International border and end the hatred for ever
 
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