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Indonesia Defence Forum

So from the information taken from Prabowo Subianto and DI Director in above CN 235 and some anti submarine helicopters delivery ceremony, Indonesian IFX prototype roll out is expected to happen in the next couple of months and the first flight of Indonesian IFX prototype is planned to be done in 2023 based on current schedule.

From the information I gather from the KFX/IFX engineer that I know personally, Indonesia will get fifth prototype and it is single seater. The testing will be conducted in South Korea and the prototype will be delivered to Indonesian Aerospace (PT DI) in late 2026 or beginning of 2027, after the plane get type certificate (completion of development for KF21/IFX block 1). There will be another batch of Indonesian engineers being send to South Korea this year.

After Indonesian engineers contributes in design phase that is started in 2011 where DAPA Korea said there were 114 Indonesian design engineers in Korea during the peak of design phase in September 2019, Indonesian engineers in production division will now get the experience and knowledge in fighter jet testing and production, while all the design engineers who have come back after the design has been completed and now are staying in Indonesia will study the testing data to see the plane performance in real flight. From previous information that we know, all of the testing data will be shared to Indonesian Aerospace.

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11:49 October 07, 2019

"Despite such a delay in payment, the Indonesian side has continued to send its researchers to South Korea to take part in the development process," Rep. Kim Joong-ro of the minor opposition Bareunmirae Party said during a parliamentary audit into the administration, voicing concern about technology leaks.

As of July, 114 Indonesian engineers were sent to South Korea to work with Korea Aerospace Industries Co. (KAI), the country's sole aircraft manufacturer, to design and make a prototype of the fighter, according to a DAPA official.


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February 6, 2014 (Angkasa/Space Magazine)

KFX / IFX program continued , Government Asked to Immediately Selecting Design

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"Program KFX / IFX is a multi - program years , costly, and involve various sectors and foreign partners. For that there must be a definite declaration on it goes. For Indonesia it is important to determine the financing schemes and their human resources planning, "said Dr Rais Zain, M. Eng , KFX / IFX Configuration Design Leader for Angkasa , in late January.

"In the near future Indonesia will also work on the N219 and R - 80. We do not have enough engineers to work three programs, especially KFX / IFX will take place until the 2020s. The government is expected to call home engineers who are now working abroad to come help the regeneration process. Outside there are approximately 200 people . If half of it can be returned to the country, it is enough to help, " added Rais who is also a lecturer at the Faculty of Aerospace Engineering ITB, Bandung.


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Some security personnel during Jokowi visit to Florest, NTT, Eastern Indonesia. The same island shared with East Timor.

They use Pindad SS2 rifle with silencer

 
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S. Korea-Indonesia e-gov't forum
South Korean Interior and Safety Minister Lee Sang-min delivers an opening speech at a South Korea-Indonesia digital government cooperation forum at a Jakarta hotel on June 16, 2022, in this photo provided by the ministry. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

 
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Intermezo,

Ukraine badminton players who play in Badminton tournament in Indonesia are interviewed. Both Russian and Ukraine citizens can get into Indonesia easily using visa on arrival.

 
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WHO Director visited Merdeka President Palace in Jakarta and met Jokowi Yesterday.

 
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TNI Targets 70% Weapon Modernization by the End of 2024​

Realization of Weapons Modernization Program/Minimum Essential Force (MEF) 2016-2024*​

Source: Ministry of Finance (Kemenkeu),


Author: Viva Budy Kusnandar
Editor: Adi Ahdiat
7/6/2022, 19.00 WIB


The Commander of the Indonesian National Armed Forces (TNI) General Andika Perkasa targets the minimum essential force (MEF) program to reach 70% by the end of 2024.

The MEF program is an effort to modernize the main tools of the TNI's weapon system (alutsista) .

"The target for the MEF is at the end of 2024, 70% of the MEF. So now, year by year, we are trying to improve it," Andika said after the Joint Commission I meeting at the DPR RI, as reported by Kompas.com, Monday (6/6/2022).

In the 2022 State Revenue and Expenditure Budget (APBN), it is stated that the realization of the MEF is 62.3% in 2020. This figure is lower than the realization in the previous year which reached 63.19%.

 
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39 Indonesian soldiers will accompany Jokowi visit to Ukraine in late June. Most likely it will be either joint force of Indonesia special forces from various branch or only Kopassus (Army Special Force).

 
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Remembering me when Soeharto visited Sarajevo in 1995 when the city was still undersiege


Indonesia Foreign Minister at that time


Soeharto also visited USA in 1995, he could be persuading USA to intervene during Bosnian war to save Bosnian Muslim

 
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Paspampres Preps Security for Jokowi in Russia, Ukraine Visit​


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Paspampres (President Security Guard)

Translator​

Editor​

Dewi Elvia Muthiariny

23 June 2022 18:11 WIB​

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The planned visit of President Joko Widodo or Jokowi to Ukraine and Russia has been prepared carefully by the Presidential Security Guards or Paspampres given the ongoing conflict between the two countries.

The Paspampres commander Major General Tri Budi Utomo guaranteed the President's security for the visit slated for next week. According to him, his side has made various security scenarios and tools for the head of state.

Budi explained that his troops had also been holding exercises since the last few weeks prior to the departure.

“We have practiced [ways] to escape him (the President),” Budi said when contacted on Thursday, June 23, 2022.

A total of 39 personnel of Paspampres will guard Jokowi, consisting of security guards who will continue to stick to the President, the advance team, and the special team who will stand by at the location.

“We have also prepared equipment, such as helmets, [buleltproof] vests if he wants to wear it during the activities there,” said Budi, adding that the team would also carry long-barreled firearms with unlimited ammunition.

He claimed that the Ukrainian authority had given permission for Indonesia’s President security Guard to bring that necessary equipment.

The news about Jokowi’s visit to Kyiv and Moscow at the end of June 2022 was confirmed by the Indonesian Minister of Foreign Affairs Retno Marsudi. In Moscow, he was scheduled to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin, while in Kyiv, he will meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

 
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President's visit to Ukraine, Russia is right step: Lawmaker​

20 hours ago

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Member of the House of Representatives (DPR) Commission I Christina Aryani. (ANTARA/HO-DPP Partai Golkar)

Jakarta (ANTARA) - A lawmaker believes President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) has taken the right step by planning to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir after attending the G7 Summit for Partner Countries in Germany, June 26-27.

"The plan is a right step because Indonesia can show its increasingly clearer contribution (to a solution) to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. As we all know, the impact of (the conflict) has increasingly become more complex," member of the House of Representatives (DPR) Commission I, Christina Aryani, noted in Jakarta on Thursday.

According to Aryani, the president's step demonstrates that Indonesia plays an increasingly concrete role in pursuing global peace.

In addition, the step demonstrates that Indonesia has the pluck to take a stand on the conflict rather than remain silent, she affirmed.

The situation of the Russia-Ukraine war is so complex that many countries hesitate to take a step. However, Indonesia has the courage to meet the Russian and Ukrainian presidents on humanitarian grounds, she stated.

"President Jokowi is the first Asian leader to visit Russia and Ukraine (since the launch of the Russian military operation in Ukraine), so it is reasonable for us to appreciate and support (the planned visit)," she remarked.

Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi had stated earlier that President Jokowi was scheduled to meet with Zelenskyy and Putin at the end of June 2022.

The planned visit to Ukraine and Russia is part of a trip that the president will undertake in a very complex situation, Marsudi stated during a media briefing accessed from Jakarta on Wednesday.

"Despite the difficult situation and complex problem, as G20 president and a member of the champion group of the Global Crisis Response Group formed by the UN Secretary General, President Jokowi has opted to strive to make contributions rather than remain silent," she noted.

The visit reflects the president's concern over humanitarian issues as well as his contributions to addressing the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on various countries, she noted.

"(We will) try to contribute to handling the food crisis due to the war that has affected all countries, particularly developing countries and low-income countries," she added.

 
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Soldiers from BIN (Intelligent institution directly under President)

 
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Police Anti Terrorist Unit (Detasemen 88),

The small but very mobile unit is part of Police Paramilitary unit, Brimob, that has 45.000 soldiers.


Indonesian police paramilitary unit, Brimob. According to the grand plan, the corps will be expanded into having close to 100.000 troops from current 45.000 troops. Indonesian Police budget is relatively similar with our Armed Force budget (combination of Army, Navy, Air Force)

 
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Indonesia is reported to have big interest to acquire 14 second hand Mirage 2000 from Gulf nations.

If we indeed buy second hand 14 Mirage 2000 from two Gulf countries, so it means the plan intended to buy another 6-8 Rafale within Jokowi final term (2020-2024) will likely be converted to buy those 14 second hand Mirage 2000 where it could include the infrastructure and some weapons as as well. The weapon is likely similar with both Rafale and KF21 planes ( Meteor and IRIS-T)

I see by this decision, our planner will likely have focus on KF21/IFX program as those second hand Mirages will just fly for another 10-15 years. This mean this is kind of stop gap measure as we have ongoing KF21/IFX program which is so far progress as plan. Buying another 6-8 Rafale maybe is also not seen as enough as it likely to come without adequate weapons accompanying the order and also current situation to fill those F 5 squadron with some MRCA is so urgent to be done.

The soft loan maybe given by both Qatar and UAE. Bappenas only approve another 1.2 billion USD foreign loan backed MRCA program until Jokowi administration is over, they dont name what plane to use that foreign loan, so maybe the loan will be intended with these second hand Mirage 2000, plus weapon, training and possible the loan used on this Mirage order program much smaller than those 1.2 billion USD foreign loan approved already in blue book of our Planning Minister, despite it still needs another screening until the program is included in Green book, PSP, and finally there is RMP (budget allocation to start the program as down payment) from Finance Minister

Threat analysist

Any way, we are unlikely to face any kind of war for the next 20 years. China is not stupid and prefer play long game strategy, they are unlikely to assert their claim in SCS by force. Any way China understand SCS should be kept open for trade route and current status quo in SCS has bring peace that benefit China trade and economy.

Our disputed SCS region is also small and sit in the end of SCS, China will of course play divide and et empera if they some how decided to use force to assert their claim, it means they will target Vietnamese and Philippine first while they will play soft with Indonesia. China will likely want Indonesia as their friend either instead of enemy, due to our strategic location, future potential, and the fact that China is basically alone in SCS geopolitics.

China also depends on our coal despite they are the largest coal producers on earth, our nickel and our strategy to be world player in EV battery value chain can also make big country such as China prefer to be our friends rather than enemy. The benefit and loss calculation will likely expect China to prevent bad relationship to happen between our nations over such a small disputed region in SCS which is also farthest SCS region from mainland China.

China possible military action is Taiwan, not SCS, but with what happen with Russia Today with so many sanction on them by Western powers, China will think even more Today if they want to invade Taiwan since they still hold huge USD reserve in the form of US Treasury obligation that could be freeze by USA if they attack Taiwan. China's holdings of US Treasury bonds is 1.039 trillion USD at the end of March 2022.

CCP of China has also been known as very careful power for decades and has elites who wants current status quo to persist, either in SCS and also Taiwan, because once again I repeat my statement, that China is actually benefiting with current status quo on those disputed region. Changing that status quo can bring meaningful economic and geopolitics damage to China where economy is basically what current CCP has in order to preserve their domestic power within China.

The CCP party system is also unlikely to produce leader like Vladimir Putin that can prioritize something outside economy when he makes decision like current invasion on Ukraine. CCP is also power that not only understand economy is their strength to rule China, but also the organization system of the party will give much less possibility to produce Putin-like leader that can centralize power under his hand, CCP is more democratic in their party level system that will prevent one person to hold too much power as like what happen in Russia with Putin that can be called as supreme leader of Russia.

Local defense industry growth and sustainable defense spending

Because of that threat analysis, better we are more supportive on our economy and local defense industry. Focusing in economy means we will likely keep growing at 5-6 % until 2030 where in that rate our economy ( nominal GDP) is expected to reach 2 trillion USD in 2030. This double GDP number will double our defense spending as well without changing current policy to keep defense spending below 1 % of GDP (currently it is around 0.7 % of our GDP)

While by focusing on local defense industry means that in the time our defense spending is expected to be quite large beyond the year of 2030, hopefully majority of the armament order will come from our own local defense industry products. This then translate into more sustainable defense spending as large part of it will go to our own domestic economy in which with that larger market it can hopefully grow our big SOE defense holding and local subcomponent industry from both SOE and the private sectors as well
 
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