India's economic might!!

[marshall211]

India to be 90% of US economy by 2050: PwC

March 07, 2008 16:12 IST

In what could be a tectonic shift in the global economic centre of gravity, the size of India's economy would grow to 90 per cent of the United States by 2050, with China becoming even bigger than the world's current largest economy, according to a PricewaterhouseCoopers report.

"The global centre of economic gravity is already shifting to China, India and other large emerging economies and our analysis suggests that this process has a lot further to run. Our latest projections suggest that China could overtake the US in around 2025 to become the world's largest economy and will continue to grow to around 130 per cent of the size of the US by 2050," it said.

India could grow to almost 90 per cent of the size of the US by 2050, PwC Head of Macroeconomics John Hawksworth said.

The global advisory firm projected that Brazil seems likely to overtake Japan by 2050 to move to the fourth place, while Russia, Mexico and Indonesia all have the potential to have economies larger than those of Germany or the United Kingdom by the middle of this century.

The report titled -- The World in 2050: Beyond the BRICs -- says that long-term prospects for China, India and other so-called E7 economies (Brazil, Mexico, Russia, Indonesia and Turkey) are still upbeat, but an additional 13 emerging economies also have the potential to grow significantly faster than the established Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries.

Interestingly, India has emerged at the top of the GDP growth table, ahead of China, prepared by PwC, which is likely to slow down till 2050.

India's gross domestic product (GDP) is currently growing at 8.5 per cent is expected to slow down to 5.8 per cent in 2050, but still ahead of other emerging and developed economies.

China's GDP is forecast to grow at 4.7 per cent in 2050 from 6.8 per cent in 2007. It is followed by Indonesia, which is expected to grow at 4.5 per cent by 2050 as against 6.7 per cent in 2007.

"Other emerging economies with relatively younger, faster-growing populations include Indonesia, Brazil, Turkey and Mexico. As with India, the key to them achieving the growth potential indicated by our mode would be establishing and maintaining a macroeconomic, legal and public policy environment conducive to trade, investment and hence economic growth," the PwC report said.

India is expected to move ahead of China in terms of growth in GDP due to several factors, mainly the significantly slower labour force growth in China due to the rapidly ageing population over the next 45 years, a result of its one-child policy.

While India's working age population is projected by the United Nations to continue to grow at a healthy rate.

Other factors favouring India is the fact that average productivity and education levels across the population are currently lower in India than in China, giving the former greater scope to catch up with the OECD countries in the long run, provided that it can maintain the right kind of institutional policy framework to support economic growth, the report said.

Besides, China's growth to date has been driven by very high savings and capital investment rates, but experience with Japan and other earlier Asian tigers suggests that such investment-driven growth eventually runs into diminishing returns once income levels approach OECD levels

 

[marshall211]

Yearender: Economic growth helps India sit on high tables in int'l community
English.news.cn 2010-12-18 22:51:48
By Liu Yanan

MUMBAI, Dec. 18 (Xinhua) -- India, the third largest economy in Asia, has managed to sit on high tables like G20 in international community and eyes one permanent seat at United Nations' Security Council, bolstered by its near 9 percent gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2010.

Indian top decision makers have played an active role in global economic governance, reform of international monetary system and climate change so far this year.

INDIA'S GROWTH STORY CONTINUES

Indian officials and businessmen often said that India's economy was almost insulated from horrible global financial tsunami since 2008, which is still playing out at corners of the globe.

Indian economic growth rebounded from 6.7 percent in fiscal year 2008-2009, and 7.4 percent in fiscal year 2009-2010 thanks to the dominance of domestic consumption and monetary stimulus policies.

The GDP growth even could rise to 9 percent in fiscal year 2010- 2011 starting from April 1, 2010, according to the mid-term economic analysis by the Ministry of Finance.

Earlier this year, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said he hoped that the country's economy could see 9 to 10 percent growth in the coming 25 years.

Standard Chartered Bank released a report in November, saying that India could grow faster than China as early as 2012 and turn into an economic entity with 30 trillion U.S. dollars by 2030 as the third largest economy in the world.

The Indian government has mapped out a blueprint to channel one trillion U.S. dollars of investment into infrastructure sector within 12th five-year plan period starting from April 2012 in order to reap demographic dividends and improve its productivity.

The impressive economic growth has drawn record-setting 38.27 billion U.S. dollars of investments from foreign institutional investors into its equity and debt market by Dec. 14 this year.

EYEING ACTIVE ROLE IN INT'L COMMUNITY

India pays great importance to the G20 summit and wants to interact with more powers in comparison with smaller club of BRIC countries including Brazil, Russia, India and China, said Kaushik Basu, chief economic adviser at the Ministry of Finance, prior to G20 summit held in Canada's Toronto in June 2010.

Afterwards, India sought to reconcile the tensions between China and the United States on the exchange rate of Chinese currency RMB by calling for dialogue and against protectionism at G20 Summit in Seoul, South Korea, in November this year.

India held a mild but clear stance at the meeting and strived to force ahead Doha Round trade talks despite the lack of enthusiasm from developed economies in the time of recession.

"Now that we've arrived at the 'high table', what is it that we want the 'high table' to do," said Raghuram G. Rajan, an honorary economic advisor to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.

Rajan called for India to play more proactive role at G20 again from the largely reactive one and resume its role in the era of Non-Aligned Movement in the 1950s.

India also successfully leveraged the BRIC forum to push forward the reform of the international financial bodies and lifted its quota shares from 2.44 percent as the 11th shareholder to 2.75 percent as the 8th one.

India won support from the United States and France for its pursuit of permanent membership of an expanded Security Council when U.S. President Barack Obama and French President Nicolas Sarkozy visited India at the end of 2010.

During the recent visit by Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao to India, Wen stressed that China and India have shared interests and common views on the issue of U.N. Security Council reforms.

"We both maintain that priority should be given to increasing the representation of developing countries," Wen said, "Closer cooperation between our two countries on Security Council reform will help uphold the interests of developing countries and promote democracy in international relations."

Wen said China understands and supports India's desire to play a bigger role in the United Nations, including its Security Council.

"As a fast-growing big country with over one billion people, India should and can play an increasingly important role in international affairs," Wen said.

INFLATION HAUNTS "AAM AADMI"

Although India's economy has been growing rapidly in recent years, its high inflation at home threatens to derail the prospects of near double-digit economic growth in addition of laggard progress in infrastructure both physically and socially.

Inflation tax could plague India's "aam aadmi" (common people) in the coming years due to dependence on imported commodities, vulnerable agricultural sector and structural problems in the economy.

Meanwhile, the India government has caught in between socialist policies for economically weak people and market guidelines in the coming years in a bid to fight inflation, win ballots, lift the poor from poverty and maintain political stability.

Inflation is the most distorted part of India's economy with complex underlying forces, said a retired official at a conference in Mumbai.

Though the wholesale price index has come down to 7.48 percent in November as the lowest so far this year, inflation is still very high and close to economic growth rate.

High inflation has triggered nationwide protests in India in July and marred the credibility of incumbent government's ability to govern the country.

India will have 5 to 5.5 percent of inflation in the medium term resulting from structural causes, said recently Chetan Ahya, a well-known economist in India and South East Asia.

India's inflation will be very high in the next two or three years due to the inflows of cheap money printed in the developed economies, associate director with Angel Commodities Naveen Mathur said recently.

Naveen Mathur estimated that India's inflation will range from 6 to 7 percent next year even domestic fundamentals are fine. "We're bullish on crude oil prices with world economy in recovery and crude oil will be traded above 75 U.S. dollars per barrel even up to pre-crisis levels next year," said Kamlesh Jogi, an analyst with Fortune Equity Brokers in India.

India now imports around 75 percent of crude oil consumption and relies heavily on imported cooking coal and edible oil products.

Additionally, India has to tweak existing rigid labor laws and provide efficient training so that the promising demographic dividend will not become a nightmare to the economy.

Editor: yan

 

[marshall211]

15 NOV, 2010, 06.13PM IST,PTI
India to be world's fastest growing economy by 2012: StanChart


MUMBAI: India is set to become the fastest growing major economy in the world by 2012 and will be third largest by GDP-size in the next two decades, behind China and the USA, a global study by British banking giant Standard Chartered said.

"India would have overtaken Japan and will be trailing the US by a slim margin by 2030. China would be at a comfortable number one position," StanChart's Head of India Research, Samiran Chakraborty, said citing the findings of the Super-Cycle Report here today.

The country's contribution to global GDP will go up to 10 per cent of the total pie of approximately $600-trillion while China's will be 24 per cent, he added.

StanChart expects the country to grow at an annual 9.3 per cent for the next two decades and the per capita income of Indians will shoot up to $7,000 by 2030 from the current $1,000, he added.

The world is currently growing through the third super cycle -- a period of sustained high economic growth driven by a particular country -- which will go till 2030, and India and China will be the biggest beneficiaries from the current cycle, Chakraborty said.

The previous two super cycles were 1870-1913 (led by the US) and 1946-1973 (led by Japan).

For India, the biggest positive would be the conducive demographics and the country will continue to grow on the domestic demand front rather than being an export hub like some of its Asian peers, Chakraborty said.

The biggest risks for the expectations to not come true, are a collapse of China, confirming to theories of its growth being a bubble; the US going into a 10-year moratorium like Japan and protectionism gaining currency, he said.

 

[PRACTICAL PATRIOT]

@ topic
dont count your chicken before they hatch.
its good thing that its predicted that INDIA is going to grow well but instead of boasting about it we should keep our feet on ground and work hard to achieve what is predicted or even more.

 

[tallboy123]

It's of no use,when 2050 come's lets talk about it..

 

[Masterchief]

We need to work more and more and move towards prosperity.

 

[JanjaWeed]

hey.. this is PDF.. looks like you are new kid on the block. get ready for some serious bashing. if you don't know already.. get used to terms like poverty, poor, starvation, toilet, 80%, 2$s day.. & the rest. good luck!!

 

[PRACTICAL PATRIOT]

hey.. this is PDF.. looks like you are new kid on the block. get ready for some serious bashing. if you don't know already.. get used to terms like poverty, poor, starvation, toilet, 80%, 2$s day.. & the rest. good luck!!

he is really new here. but i tried covering it up just after his posts so maybe he will be spared. IF not then god bless him.

 

[Insane]

It's all very flattering when someone paints a rosy picture of our future and we jump for joy... We react very strongly when someone points at our inadequacies and drawbacks and fight back... But the reality is a median that lies between the two ends of the spectrum.

If Indians want to achieve more on a personal and national level, then we got to accept failures and facts boldly, be level headed when we get success and not get carried away, learn to control our emotions and celebrate after we reach our target, the internal happiness of smaller milestones can still be there and should be there but show-off must be limited.

I guess we as people and a nation are quite a distance from where we would want to be. Speaking less and working more will get us there faster. 40 Years is a very long time horizon and anything could happen, so its better to be cautious than overconfident.

 

[tallboy123]

Guys get ready

 

[GodlessBastard]

There is no point making predictions 40 years down the road.

40 years is a very long time and who knows what crazy things may happen.

Let us focus on more short-term goals.

India should surpass Japan to be the third largest economy (PPP) by next year, and become seventh largest economy in nominal terms by 2015.

 

[American Pakistani]

GoodLuck to Indians

I hope Pakistanis will learn some lessons & boost their economy as it was boosting 8% during Musharraf.

 

[GodlessBastard]

GoodLuck to Indians

I hope Pakistanis will learn some lessons & boost their economy as it was boosting 8% during Musharraf.

I almost never thank posts, but this is the first time that the first Pakistani post on an Indian economy thread has been a positive one, and not a troll.

You have my respect, sir.

 

[true_indian]

Come on guys.. Enough of these threads. There is literally a thread every week that India would be this and that in next 30 years. Let the time come. No point in living in dreams even if its a good dream. We need to work on it and show it to the world.

 

[ajtr]

Dilli door ast.