India's demographic dividend fallacy

[CZAR]

@CZAR: More and more manufacturing sectors come to India lesser will be the cost and job opportunity will be more as this will help auxiliary businesses to stand on their feet. At present in densely populated states like Bengal is facing huge land issues. I hope you know the Singur crisis which changed the thrown of bengal but job opportunities for millions of educated youths were lost.

I absolutely agree with you. Economies of scale will allow lowering the production cost, making indian products cost-effective and competitive and will also provide employment.

But holding a gun to investors' heads is not the solution. Providing the right environment is critical. For instance the "Ease of Doing Business Index" ranks India at 132 out of 184. This needs to improve.

The singur crisis, only reaffirms what I am trying to say. Politicizing of the land issue lead to the ouster of one the largest corporate entities from Bengal. And since then, Indian Corporates have been wary of investing in Bengal. A more hospitable environment is needed with easier land clearances, access to power, etc.

 

[Screambowl]

there is industrial park scheme 2002 pending since 2002 and in 2005 or 2006 decision was made and the decision was to postpone the decision. WTF? And in 2009 new letter was dated for every project and contracted industry for the report and it is still pending since then. What hell are they doing at all?

 

[kam83]

India Proposes Curbs on Tech Imports - WSJ.com


@kam83: lets bash Kunal Kundu,author of the article not the OP.

where can i meet him

 

[CZAR]

Man u ppl Amaze me

When Did China Gain Independence.... 1912
----------------> 35 yr of china Independence more
When Did India Gain Independence.... 1947



When Did China start Economic Reform ....December 1978
-------------headstart of Economic Liberalisation more than a decade
When Did India Start Economic Reform .....July 1991

Now considering those two thing How can u Compare Today's India With Today China..When They had a Lead Ahead of us in every Aspect...

What u See today Every Head of State Flocking to India is not to Sell only its Weapon but to make a Business relationship with India
Read Goldman's Research paper on India ....Where it Says India will Require a Trillion Dollar Investment In Infra in this decade..Which India Is more than Capable of Producing 90% of it From within its Domestic SAVING..

Firstly But its Ppl who need Stop being Critical about Everything ..they want thing to Change overnite ..IF u want to really Understand India Compare ur life 5 yrs back with Today's Life ..if u r living a better life ..India as a country is doing its job

And remember we Achieved this with a most corrupt politicians , worst bureaucratic structure with the most hostile neighbour's

Poverty has been a issue ..but lately it has been hot topic ..i accept it require our Attention but at same time don't throw all the Achievement our Country made in a Dustbin ..



PS:- watch some Economist videos about India's future not those CNBC jokers

like
Prof.Vaidyanathan
S.gurumurthy
M .R .Venkatesh

As far as Education and Manufacturing job goes....

India is moving toward One Exam for All India in Every stream
eg:-- NEET
similar exam for ENGINEERS

Manufacturing

India now has a progressive manufacturing policy, let?s create 100 million jobs by 2025 - Economic Times

I request you to keep China out of a debate on a domestic issue and you serve me with your entry to the essay writing competition for middle school kids on growth in china/India...

How do your simplistic calculations on China- India growth trajectory affect the manufacturing sector or efforts that are required to help the sector ramp up?!

I was merely making a case for greater investment and reform.

 

[kam83]

I request you to keep China out of a debate on a domestic issue and you serve me with your entry to the essay writing competition for middle school kids on growth in china/India...

How do your simplistic calculations on China- India growth trajectory affect the manufacturing sector or efforts that are required to help the sector ramp up?!

I was merely making a case for greater investment and reform.

OKie Dokie Bro..tu bol raha hai is liye, no China mention from now on

 

[anant_s]

Lets disect the writeup in small pieces:
1. Global economies throughout the history have undergone cyclic recession and boom. India is no different. we must remember however that even during the tough times from 2008 onwards till recently when most economies were shrinking, India did post positive growth throughout. Yes India is not China and it need not be.
2. Chinese economy relies heavily on manufacturing, it is China's strength and without doubt the engine that drive China's scorching economy. In India (although not at similar scale), Agriculture and Services sector are main contributors. If one analyses the progress of agriculture sector, we will find that the sector that supports majority of population, hasn't done well. And here lies the reason why India has never touched Double digit growth rate which it can. Unless a government revives this sector, sustained growth is difficult.

3. Demographics: The writer of article has very conviniently forgotten to mention a pertinent point. In bid to control its popultion, China's much talked about Single Child Theory will start to show its effects in near future. There are some industries that are labor intensive and age sensitive. As working population ages, these industries start getting affeceted. Also this puts tremendous strain on pension funds.
4. Continuing on point 3, a lot of market especially consumer goods is greatly affected by average age of buyer. Needless to say but yonger population has to start a family, educate children and so on. This supports the consumer and FMCG industries and for countries such as India and China having such huge population (& hence the domestic market), this is a critical point.

5. the article mentions about quality of education in India (& a funny fact that IITs and IIMs are the only saviors of our otherwise dismal education system). Well just look at how our IT and BPO industry is doing and you'll get the answers, service sector is already a huge sector as far as contribution towards GDP is concerned. Things will only get better from here.
While at the topic, we must understand that 5000 odd engineers from IIT and about similar no. of Business Grdautes from IIMs are grossly inadequete for an economy size of India. The contributions from other institutes (NITs, regional colleges etc) is no less (even though they may be less celebrated).

Thus to paint a picture that we are heading nowhere is neither correct nor factual.

End Note: It has indeed become very annoying to search out such frivolous piece of article and start bashing a society. Its almost a papparazi sort of attempt to create an issue. I request members to pl. analyse articles themselves before posting. A large section of media does print stories of india overtaking XYZ economy by 2XXX and all. To be honest these things make no sense at all.

 

[Shardul.....the lion]

Huge population without proper employment and growth aspirations can become huge problem.

Establishment of big manufacturing industries is a must for India.

 

[Contrarian]

Labour reforms and less licence raj in manufacturing is a crying need today.