Banglar Bir
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President Trump is good for India and bad for China, Pakistan.
Here's why READ MORE ON » US | Trump | technology | sharp | Recession | Pakistan | open Donald Trump is at the Oval Office and the big question on India's mind is how should it open up to an American president who mimicked an Indian call centre worker in one of his campaign speeches?
Trump, in most of his campaign speeches, has railed against outsourcing, and has vowed to right trade imbalances of the sort that India currently enjoys with the US.
But Trump couldn't be all that bad for India, says former US diplomat William H Avery . In fact,
the billionaire could be more of a problem for China and Pakistan, he adds.
Double whammy for China and Pakistan, Avery says, have been using the US as a cash cow for decades: China by running a huge trade surplus ($366 billion in 2015);
Pakistan by soaking up US aid (more than $30 billion since 2002), while pretending to fight radical Islam.
All signs indicate that Trump would cut down on the flow of cash to both these countries.
The US has lost five million manufacturing jobs over the past 15 years, while China has seen rapid growth
in its manufacturing sector over the same period. Trump is electorally committed to bringing a material number of lost manufacturing jobs back to the US; the only way he can do so will be to offset Asia’s (especially China’s) labour cost advantage in manufacturing with a combination of tariff and nontariff barriers.
Such a move would come at the worst possible time for China, when a decades long credit fuelled investment boom may finally be turning to bust. For China, the potential outcomes of a trade war with the US range from sharply slower growth (best case scenario)
to outright recession, which in turn could which in turn could spark political unrest and, in a worst case scenario, revolution.
Would India lose some technology and outsourcing jobs if Trump Administration abandons US free trade policies? Perhaps, though it is harder to slap a tariff on a piece of code
coming over the internet from Hyderabad than on a piece of machinery coming over the ocean from Shanghai.
Regardless, in the zero sum great game of Asia,Avery says, is also set to be a big loser in a post election shakeup of US relations in Asia. Trump has called Pakistan “probably the most dangerous [country]” and has said that “you have to get India involved; India is the check o Pakistan I would start talking at that level very very quickly”. This statement is a sharp reversal of tone from presidential candidates toward India Pakistan relationship. Just eight years ago, Barack Obama was hinting at the US mediating in Kashmir. Since then, as president, he has avoided talk of mediation and stuck to the longstanding Washington script of simply encouraging the two sides to “improve their bilateral relations”.
Now, however, the man who could be Obama’s successor is tossing out that script and saying, in effect,
Pakistan is a problem, and India is part of the solution to that problem: a profound humiliation for Islamabad.
Trump would be more likely than any of his recent predecessors to try to influence Pakistan’s policy by threatening to cut off US aid. Trump implied as much when commenting on the case of Dr Shakil Afridi, who infuriated Pakistan’s government for allegedly helping the CIA definitively locate Osama bin Laden in 2011; Afridi has languished in a Pakistan jail ever since. "I think I would get him out in two minutes. I would tell them, ‘let him out’ and I’m sure they’d let him out, because we give a lot of aid to Pakistan," said Trump.
Donald Trump no solution to civilisational crisis facing the West
Donald Trump “I grabbed America by the p***y, and she said yes.” I just invented that Trumpism, yet it sums up the crudity,misogyny and contempt for civic values and political correctness that as propelled
Donald Trump into the White House. Donald Trump no solution to civilizational crisis facing the Difficult days lie ahead.
In two years of campaigning for the primaries and the presidential election, Trump exposed himself as a boor, groping womaniser, serial liar, Muslim hater, Hispanic hater, tax escapist and constant shifter of policy positions.
Yet he won because voters were sick and tired of the status quo that had left them mired in stagnant wages and fears of robotisation, job offshoring and ethnic marginalisation.
Trump has ridden the wave of what is called the altright (or alternative right), representing a frightening ultra nationalism based on race and religion, bereft of the usual civilities of a graceful democracy. This echoes similar trends in Europe. Opinion polls show that Americans and Europeans fear they will be worse off in future than the past.
This has driven voters from the political centre to both the left (Sanders, Corbyn) and right (Trump, Farage, Le Pen). This revulsion against the status quo has drowned out the usual norms of civility, family values and respect for minorities and women. After his boast caught on video about grabbing women by the genitals, opinion polls suggested that barely 20% of US women would vote for Trump. In fact 42% did, and that clinched his victory.
This is not a Marxist uprising of the bottom 99% against the top 1%.Trump is among the richest men ever elected, and has promised to slash tax rates. But he represents contempt for the values, policies and political correctness of the status quo. He has led an uprising of the poorly educated white masses that used to be called Shamim Chowdhury and 3.8M others like this.
More India times The Times of India, The Economic Times More 11/10/2016 Donald Trump no solution to civilisational crisis facing the West The Economic Times http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...lcrisisfacingthewest/articleshow/55340835.cms 2/3 rednecks or white trash.
His victory marks the end of the civic values that became the dominant ideology with the civil rights movement of the 1960s.
Once, a small liberal intelligentsia could lead the masses because it delivered brilliantly in economic terms for three decades after World War II.
Wage stagnation started in the 1970s and led to fears of being overtaken by Japan in the 1980s,
but these fears ended when Japan fell into an economic rut.
US wages rose in Bill Clinton’s boom years. They stagnated again in the 2000s, but that was shrugged off because an unprecedented lending boom enabled households to go on a spending spree despite stagnant wages.That bubble burst in 2008, and the damage is still widespread.
The US economy has picked up and unemployment is downbut people are resentful of the lack of the good jobs of old, fearful of the future, and utterly distrustful of the liberal economics and politics that delivered for decades but seem to deliver no more. When things go wrong, blaming the foreigner is an easy psychological escape route. So we are witnessing a widespread backlash
against liberal economics and globalisation. We are now in a “posttruth” era
where experts and fact checkers are no longer trusted, and gut feelings are more important than facts. The vitriolfilled social media have created closed opinion loops that eliminate rival views and promote crude fundamentalism of every kind.
The altright has a messianic certitude that is intolerant and uncivil.
The end of Western military dominance and serial failures in Iraq,
Afghanistan, Syria and Libya have deepened the Western sense of lost status.
The relentless rise of Jihadi Islam and repeated Western inability to control this hydra headed monster have stoked primordial ethno religious fears.
Brexit and the Trump victory were driven by similar forces. These could yet bring Le Pen to power in France.
The West faces a civilizational crisis, no less.
Will Trump or Le Pen be able to deliver where centrists have failed? Almost certainly not.
Problems caused by new technology and the rise of highly competitive Asian economies cannot be
solved by protectionism, border walls or ethno fundamentalism.
Difficult days lie ahead.
Stay on top of business news with The Economic Times
Here's why READ MORE ON » US | Trump | technology | sharp | Recession | Pakistan | open Donald Trump is at the Oval Office and the big question on India's mind is how should it open up to an American president who mimicked an Indian call centre worker in one of his campaign speeches?
Trump, in most of his campaign speeches, has railed against outsourcing, and has vowed to right trade imbalances of the sort that India currently enjoys with the US.
But Trump couldn't be all that bad for India, says former US diplomat William H Avery . In fact,
the billionaire could be more of a problem for China and Pakistan, he adds.
Double whammy for China and Pakistan, Avery says, have been using the US as a cash cow for decades: China by running a huge trade surplus ($366 billion in 2015);
Pakistan by soaking up US aid (more than $30 billion since 2002), while pretending to fight radical Islam.
All signs indicate that Trump would cut down on the flow of cash to both these countries.
The US has lost five million manufacturing jobs over the past 15 years, while China has seen rapid growth
in its manufacturing sector over the same period. Trump is electorally committed to bringing a material number of lost manufacturing jobs back to the US; the only way he can do so will be to offset Asia’s (especially China’s) labour cost advantage in manufacturing with a combination of tariff and nontariff barriers.
Such a move would come at the worst possible time for China, when a decades long credit fuelled investment boom may finally be turning to bust. For China, the potential outcomes of a trade war with the US range from sharply slower growth (best case scenario)
to outright recession, which in turn could which in turn could spark political unrest and, in a worst case scenario, revolution.
Would India lose some technology and outsourcing jobs if Trump Administration abandons US free trade policies? Perhaps, though it is harder to slap a tariff on a piece of code
coming over the internet from Hyderabad than on a piece of machinery coming over the ocean from Shanghai.
Regardless, in the zero sum great game of Asia,Avery says, is also set to be a big loser in a post election shakeup of US relations in Asia. Trump has called Pakistan “probably the most dangerous [country]” and has said that “you have to get India involved; India is the check o Pakistan I would start talking at that level very very quickly”. This statement is a sharp reversal of tone from presidential candidates toward India Pakistan relationship. Just eight years ago, Barack Obama was hinting at the US mediating in Kashmir. Since then, as president, he has avoided talk of mediation and stuck to the longstanding Washington script of simply encouraging the two sides to “improve their bilateral relations”.
Now, however, the man who could be Obama’s successor is tossing out that script and saying, in effect,
Pakistan is a problem, and India is part of the solution to that problem: a profound humiliation for Islamabad.
Trump would be more likely than any of his recent predecessors to try to influence Pakistan’s policy by threatening to cut off US aid. Trump implied as much when commenting on the case of Dr Shakil Afridi, who infuriated Pakistan’s government for allegedly helping the CIA definitively locate Osama bin Laden in 2011; Afridi has languished in a Pakistan jail ever since. "I think I would get him out in two minutes. I would tell them, ‘let him out’ and I’m sure they’d let him out, because we give a lot of aid to Pakistan," said Trump.
Donald Trump no solution to civilisational crisis facing the West
Donald Trump “I grabbed America by the p***y, and she said yes.” I just invented that Trumpism, yet it sums up the crudity,misogyny and contempt for civic values and political correctness that as propelled
Donald Trump into the White House. Donald Trump no solution to civilizational crisis facing the Difficult days lie ahead.
In two years of campaigning for the primaries and the presidential election, Trump exposed himself as a boor, groping womaniser, serial liar, Muslim hater, Hispanic hater, tax escapist and constant shifter of policy positions.
Yet he won because voters were sick and tired of the status quo that had left them mired in stagnant wages and fears of robotisation, job offshoring and ethnic marginalisation.
Trump has ridden the wave of what is called the altright (or alternative right), representing a frightening ultra nationalism based on race and religion, bereft of the usual civilities of a graceful democracy. This echoes similar trends in Europe. Opinion polls show that Americans and Europeans fear they will be worse off in future than the past.
This has driven voters from the political centre to both the left (Sanders, Corbyn) and right (Trump, Farage, Le Pen). This revulsion against the status quo has drowned out the usual norms of civility, family values and respect for minorities and women. After his boast caught on video about grabbing women by the genitals, opinion polls suggested that barely 20% of US women would vote for Trump. In fact 42% did, and that clinched his victory.
This is not a Marxist uprising of the bottom 99% against the top 1%.Trump is among the richest men ever elected, and has promised to slash tax rates. But he represents contempt for the values, policies and political correctness of the status quo. He has led an uprising of the poorly educated white masses that used to be called Shamim Chowdhury and 3.8M others like this.
More India times The Times of India, The Economic Times More 11/10/2016 Donald Trump no solution to civilisational crisis facing the West The Economic Times http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...lcrisisfacingthewest/articleshow/55340835.cms 2/3 rednecks or white trash.
His victory marks the end of the civic values that became the dominant ideology with the civil rights movement of the 1960s.
Once, a small liberal intelligentsia could lead the masses because it delivered brilliantly in economic terms for three decades after World War II.
Wage stagnation started in the 1970s and led to fears of being overtaken by Japan in the 1980s,
but these fears ended when Japan fell into an economic rut.
US wages rose in Bill Clinton’s boom years. They stagnated again in the 2000s, but that was shrugged off because an unprecedented lending boom enabled households to go on a spending spree despite stagnant wages.That bubble burst in 2008, and the damage is still widespread.
The US economy has picked up and unemployment is downbut people are resentful of the lack of the good jobs of old, fearful of the future, and utterly distrustful of the liberal economics and politics that delivered for decades but seem to deliver no more. When things go wrong, blaming the foreigner is an easy psychological escape route. So we are witnessing a widespread backlash
against liberal economics and globalisation. We are now in a “posttruth” era
where experts and fact checkers are no longer trusted, and gut feelings are more important than facts. The vitriolfilled social media have created closed opinion loops that eliminate rival views and promote crude fundamentalism of every kind.
The altright has a messianic certitude that is intolerant and uncivil.
The end of Western military dominance and serial failures in Iraq,
Afghanistan, Syria and Libya have deepened the Western sense of lost status.
The relentless rise of Jihadi Islam and repeated Western inability to control this hydra headed monster have stoked primordial ethno religious fears.
Brexit and the Trump victory were driven by similar forces. These could yet bring Le Pen to power in France.
The West faces a civilizational crisis, no less.
Will Trump or Le Pen be able to deliver where centrists have failed? Almost certainly not.
Problems caused by new technology and the rise of highly competitive Asian economies cannot be
solved by protectionism, border walls or ethno fundamentalism.
Difficult days lie ahead.
Stay on top of business news with The Economic Times
