Albatross
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After Pathankot I have heard many Indians talking about why it is so necessary now to carry out surgical strikes inside Pakistan to eliminate so called militants and also to send Pak a clear message. The way within hours of attack we heard news of Bhawalpur being the home place of one of the alleged attacker and the widespread allegations against Pakistan in India which is evident by Indian PDF members posts as well I think though very minute but there is a possibility that Modi may opt for an adventure to improve his local ratings and to hide his failures at multiple fronts including dreams to isolate Pakistan internationally.
Indian posture infront of world would be very innocent something like see our Pm went to Pak to congratulate their Pm on his birthday and bless his grand daughter on her wedding ( So cute of him right!!!!!!!) but that's how Pak is replying so we had to take the action.
But as suspected by many in Pakistan that its a Raw false flag then any such attempted strikes are more likely or may be done after doing a couple of more such false flags .
Just another assumption there may a third party involved who is against Pak-india trying to resolve their issues through dialogue.
Lets discuss the fall out of any such adventure.
I don't want to go into nuke scare as that has already been said many times and has been blown out of proportion but as per me followings are the possible outcome.
1)Indian assets neutralized before conducting any strike.. Utterly shame for IAF and will add to their current humiliation but its highly unlikely as Bhawalpur and some other areas are close to border and fighters can lock missiles without actually entering Pak space.
2)Pakistan retaliating by targeting Indian assets near border not general population but military installation.
3) Over days things getting out of control and a full fledged border conflict or a war utilizing all three forces.
4) Nukes are put on alert in both states.
Now things will lead to some permanent damage.
5) A nuke fall out killing millions in both nations.
6) Economy crashing completely and throwing both countries back into 50's ( Just remember with sophisticated weapons of today destruction would be quick and wide spread)
And most probably the bone of contention Kashmir will either be destroyed due to fighting or her status will remain unchanged thus a no gain for any state.
But india may be able to delay the game changer CPEC by a decade or so at the cost of loosing heavily economically .
One more thing what would be global position.
China will side Pakistan , Russia would most probably remain neutral given changing dynamics in ME(but may supply any part or weapons required by India) , USA would try to play both ways but most probably will side with India .
Other regional powers like Germany , france and Uk may be neutral as well.
Saudia and Turkey will support Pakistan vocally I guess with Turkey extending military help as well.
The role of this new Saudi formed coalition of 34 states would also be interesting to watch.
Indian posture infront of world would be very innocent something like see our Pm went to Pak to congratulate their Pm on his birthday and bless his grand daughter on her wedding ( So cute of him right!!!!!!!) but that's how Pak is replying so we had to take the action.
But as suspected by many in Pakistan that its a Raw false flag then any such attempted strikes are more likely or may be done after doing a couple of more such false flags .
Just another assumption there may a third party involved who is against Pak-india trying to resolve their issues through dialogue.
Lets discuss the fall out of any such adventure.
I don't want to go into nuke scare as that has already been said many times and has been blown out of proportion but as per me followings are the possible outcome.
1)Indian assets neutralized before conducting any strike.. Utterly shame for IAF and will add to their current humiliation but its highly unlikely as Bhawalpur and some other areas are close to border and fighters can lock missiles without actually entering Pak space.
2)Pakistan retaliating by targeting Indian assets near border not general population but military installation.
3) Over days things getting out of control and a full fledged border conflict or a war utilizing all three forces.
4) Nukes are put on alert in both states.
Now things will lead to some permanent damage.
5) A nuke fall out killing millions in both nations.
6) Economy crashing completely and throwing both countries back into 50's ( Just remember with sophisticated weapons of today destruction would be quick and wide spread)
And most probably the bone of contention Kashmir will either be destroyed due to fighting or her status will remain unchanged thus a no gain for any state.
But india may be able to delay the game changer CPEC by a decade or so at the cost of loosing heavily economically .
One more thing what would be global position.
China will side Pakistan , Russia would most probably remain neutral given changing dynamics in ME(but may supply any part or weapons required by India) , USA would try to play both ways but most probably will side with India .
Other regional powers like Germany , france and Uk may be neutral as well.
Saudia and Turkey will support Pakistan vocally I guess with Turkey extending military help as well.
The role of this new Saudi formed coalition of 34 states would also be interesting to watch.
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