Right after Prime Minister Imran Khan's visit to the United States, Indian government removed article 370 from Indian constitution in an effort to change the demography of occupied Kashmir region. Preparations for this change started many years back.
In the last 15 years, India kept us busy in our financial matters, developed relations with Afghanistan and Iran and surrounded us from all sides except from a small northern corridor that connects us with China. Not just India kept us busy with real terrorism by supporting elements thriving outside of Pakistan, it provided funds to the politicians and helped them stash money abroad, develop policies that proved harmful for Pakistan's economy in the long run and defame Kashmir struggle by forcing the world to believe that Kashmiris' demand to get the right of self determination is in fact terrorism. Unfortunately, Pakistan's poor performance in foreign affairs department gave our cunning neighbor a free hand when our state turned its eyes away from our traditional friends and let India develop diplomatic, social and economic ties.
So What's the Current Situation for Pakistan?
1 - India enjoys a preferential treatment when it comes to diplomatic and economic relations even among Muslim countries (including our time tested friends in GCC, and our western neighbors Iran and Afghanistan). There are a couple of exceptions though, i.e. China and Turkey. With China, India has some unsolved disputes and it is one major reason we have China still on our side. Turkey, one the other hand, is not a very powerful country and situated faraway, and thus India doesn't feel threatened by Turkey's actions. Be very clear, it wasn't Pakistan's excellent performance on diplomatic front that kept China and Turkey on our side. Pakistan has lost most of its traditional friends due to our worst diplomatic performance over the past 10-15 years.
2 - India is financially very strong with huge purchasing power and this inclines most of the countries to its side. Pakistan on the other hand has to take measures to reduce our imports further and this is not liked by many countries in the world. No one in the world cares about the innocent people being murdered all over the world, unless they are directly affected by the consequences. Kashmir is a faraway region and no one cares about it. In fact, the economic ties with India are more lucrative and give more dividends in the short and long run. Occasional demonstrations to remind the world about its moral obligations are not enough to get the much needed support.
3 - India is militarily much more stronger than Pakistan. With its current inventory and already signed contracts in all three branches of security forces, the gap is increasing rapidly. Moreover, India has access to more conventional weapon systems than Pakistan without exceptions. The whole world wants to sell its weapons and India has the cushion of choosing the better (if not the best) available weapons from any country, be it a S-400 air Defense system or fifth Generation fighter jets. Pakistan on the other hand has access to only Chinese weapons without restrictions. Other countries put caveats on the usage of weapons. This access to additional weapons is more favorable to India in case it decides to invade us and the conventional war extends to more than six months.
The above three situations provided extra ordinary confidence to India when it abolished Article 370 from its constitution. Many believe that while Pakistan was busy in negotiating a deal between US and Taliban, India received a go ahead from its western friends (including the United States) to play its final card on Kashmir.
What's the current situation for Kashmiris in Indian Occupied Kashmir
Because of India's strong position on diplomatic and economic fronts, we have not seen a strong response from the world condemning the human rights situation in IoK. The countries and international media outlets, which continued to report on Uighur Muslims multiple times a day due to their vested interests against China, have given less than 10% of the coverage of Kashmir in comparison. For them, Hong Kong is a bigger issue than Kashmir currently.
Kashmiris are being murdered, women are being raped and children are being abducted, and the whole world is just.. watching.
What are Indian Plans
Many of us are of the view that India is soon going to attack Pakistan. I respectfully do not share this standpoint and in my honest opinion, India will continue with its Genocide in Kashmir. Why I say this, following points may provide some merit to my opinion:
1 - Going to a war wiith Pakistan will internationalize this issue further and UNSC will have to, although unhappily, take up the issue and pass another resolution. It is in India's favor to continue with the genocide for the next several years and keep Pakistan on its toes on western and eastern borders.
2 - India has an extremely difficult to tackle unconventional weapon. Here I am not referring to nuclear option that even Pakistan has and can use that on India preemptively in case of war. The unconventional weapon I am talking about here is water. With article 370 gone, India believes that it is under no obligation to provide Pakistan's share of water as inked in Indus Water Treaty. India can easily destroy 1000s of hectres of ready crops in summers and block our rightful share of water in winter. In addition, the socio-economic impact of Indian water terrorism is so huge that Pakistan might post negative growth in the coming years if India fully takes control of the water. When a country has all the time and this type of unconventional weapon, it will be extremely unwise for it to go to war to defeat its enemy.
3 - Some people believe that India wants to capture AJK and GB and that's one of the reason of imminent Indian attack. I disagree with this point of view as well because Indian intention from the beginning is to convert LoC into international border. Indian plan is to keep the world unaware of the situation in IoK (even if there's free media in Kashmir, world will only focus on Hong Kong though) and push the refugees towards LoC so that Pakistani people pressurize Pakistan to accept and settle them in Pakistan. The recent statements from Indian terrorist politicians about kidnapping Kashmiri girls is part of this dirty plan because at one point, Kashmiris will prefer saving the dignity of their daughters and move to Pakistan rather than staying there and keep giving their innocent Kashmiri girls and children to Hindu terrorists. India may, however, apply the same tactics in other states which are protected till now under its constitution.
What are Pakistani options?
While the recent diplomatic offensive of Pakistan on India is great (although extremely late), it is simply not enough to stop India from implementation of its plans. At one point, world will stop reading Prime Minister Imran Khan's tweets and UN/ SC will start ignoring Pakistani requests of intervening in the region. Pakistani options are extremely limited:
1 - For the sake of Kashmiris, try to convince them to accept India constitution and live like other Muslims of India. On the surface, this option seems quite reasonable and beneficial for Kashmiris. However, given the nature of Hindu terrorists, it might give them a false indication that Pakistan can now be subjugated further. In my opinion, if Pakistan takes this route, it will be disintegrated.
2 - Strike a deal in Afghanistan quickly and form an alliance with Taliban. The only Muslims who have the will to help and support Muslims of other parts of the world are Taliban. However, we will have to support them in return whenever they need our support in future in return. As a Pakistani, I believe that when we require help, everything becomes halal.. All the support that comes from our friends is welcomed. However, when others expect something from us, we become neutral. Anyway, Pakistan and Taliban have an excellent working relationship as we can see Pakistani influence in the peace talks, we can safely assume that they will be willing to fight alongside Pakistanis in the gorilla war. It will take some time, but will eventually get us results. There's, however, a downside of this strategy. We will become financially extremely weak in the process. FATF will blacklist us on Indian demand and we will not be able to trade with a lot of countries freely.
3 - Consider water terrorism as an attack on Pakistan. Tell the world that Pakistan has lost a lot of people, livestock, crops and whatnot due to Indian unconventional attack on Pakistan using water and it is an attack on Pakistan's sovereignty. Allah swt has given Pakistan yet another reason to launch a counter attack. World will not condemn Pakistan fully if Pakistan attacks on dams and completely destroys them in the process as there is an ample evidence of Indian water terrorism. In response, Indian will either attack Pakistan or increase its genocide. If India attacks Pakistan, Pakistan's objective will be achieved. If not, Pakistan should do a false flag attack on Pakistani soil.. and attack India again.
Remember guys, India fear the war more than Pakistan.. The recent progress they achieved in the last decade will reverse. Foreign investment will reduce, tourism sector will destroy, and the loss to India will be at least 50 times more than Pakistan. We know that in the process, we Pakistanis may go instinct, but the world will remember Pakistan as a dignified nation rather than a hapless coward nation. Other countries will also learn a thing or two of how to prefer a dignified death. We are a nation of Muhammad Sallallahu Alaihe Wasallam, and our ancestors include Abu Bakr Siddiq, Umar Bin Khattab, Uthman Ghani, Ali bin Abi Talib, Khalid Bin Walid, Hassan and Hussain and many other Sahaba (Radiallahu Ta'ala Anhum) and people like Muhammad Bin Qasim, Nooruddin Zangi, Sultan Salahuddin Ayubi, Sultan Mehmood Ghaznavi, Tipu Sultan, and many more.. and our recent example is Muhammad Ali Jinnah, who attacked Kashmir without thinking about the consequences and snatched a large part of Kashmir during his lifetime.
Just remember:
A coward dies hundred times a day, the brave meets death but once
@Mangus Ortus Novem @Shane @Khafee @Dubious @Signalian @I.R.A @Areesh @war&peace @Farah Sohail @Zibago @Arsalan @waz and others
