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JanjaWeed
Tuesday, March 4, 2014
CNNIBN-CSDS Maharastra & Delhi Poll: #OperationPrimeMinister’s sobering effect...[/paste:font]
MAHARASHTRA
“The BJP-Shiv Sena-RPI (Athavale) alliance is expected to win 6-7 more seats than the ruling Congress-NCP combine in Maharashtra. According to CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS election tracker, the BJP-Shiv Sena and RPI (A) alliance is projected to win 23-29 seats, if the Lok Sabha elections are held today.
The ruling Congress-NCP combine is projected to get 16-22 seats according to the seat projections by Dr Rajeeva Kharandikar, Director, Chennai Mathematical Institute, Chennai Maharashtra has a total 48 Lok Sabha seats and others are expected to get 1-5 seats....
According to survey conducted in the third week of February, the BJP-SS-RPI (A) is expected to get 42 per cent votes. The Congress-NCP alliance is likely to get 36 per cent votes.” (Source: CNNIBN)
So the Cong-NCP alliance makes a 1% gain from the CNNIBN-CSDS Tracker Poll January while BJP-SS alliance loses 2% marginally. Nevertheless, though the vote gap margin still remains a very formidable 6%, the momentum trend is Cong-NCP up; BJP-SS down. Perhaps a hint of harmonization due to post-#OperationPrime Minister sting impact?
But considering CNNIBN-CSDS has displayed a strong tendency of over-estimating the BJP and under-estimating the Congress as seen in the table providing their Chattisgarh projections vs actual results comparison, the battle could be much closer than CNNIBN-CSDS projects. If in Chattisgarh the actual vote gap was 0.6% while CNNIBN-CSDS projected a whopping 15%, then it maybe even safe on the basis of such track record to assume that Cong-NCP is coasting to replicate their performance of 2009 this year based on such a dubious trackrecord.
Such a conjecture gains further credence from the fact that former BJP President and their Maharashra strong man, Nitin Gadkari met Raj Thackeray of the MNS last evening ostensibly to plead with him to not contest the Lok Sabha polls. For an alliance comfortably projected ahead by a whopping 6% over its nearest rival, this looks more an act of desperation by the NDA than any evidence of oozing of confidence. Desperation since it tantamounts to asking the politically astute Raj Thackeray to consider committing harakiri given that a MNS poor showing at the Lok Sabha hustings will perversely impact their performance for the Assembly polls scheduled just after the Lok Sabha polls.
As pointed out by CNNIBN reporter on the ground herself during the telecast, the CNNIBN-CSDS vote projections does look at the face of it, unreal, if one goes by results of local body elections where the Cong and NCP contesting separately swept most of those local bodies who went to poll recently with the Congress looking particularly resilient. The last round of local body elections was conducted in just January this year was no exception as could be observed in the news report above.
In the span of just one month, BJP support plunged by 7% while its ally SS zoomed up by 5% for their alliance to make a net loss of 2%! Similarly the Congress witnesses 1% being chopped off their vote base in the same period but its ally, NCP gains 2% for their alliance to make a net gain of 1%! MNS similarly gains 2%! We may dismiss all these variations as just illusiions of their touted +/-3% statistical margin error. But how does one explain undecided voters zooming by 4% during the same period giving serious grounds for the robustness of the data to be questioned..
CNNIBN-CSDS further portrays Raj Thackeray and MNS as the X factor. Accepting the data as it is, there could be a combination of other X factors. For example a Congress-BSP national alliance would make the contest razor tight. Then again, Raj Thackeray recently being present at Medha Patkar's rally should set off the rumour mill on fire whether an alliance between them can make a strong dent within the Mumbai-Thane-Pune region?
The choice of Prime Minister in the state is revealing. Modi’s popularity mysteriosly plunged by a massive 9% within the monthly tracker! Again - a hint of an act of harmonization at play? There is a couple of bad news for the NDA in these numbers, taken at face value. Firstly, only 12% of the respondents said that their vote is conditional by the choice of Prime Minister while an overwhelming said it would be conditional on the choice of candidates. There you have it – BJP’s attempt to turn the forthcoming Lok Sabha as a Presidential election has no takers at least in Maharashtra. While CNNIBN-CSDS hypes Modi is number one in popularity within the state, the combined popularity of Rahul Gandhi; Sonia Gandhi, ManMohan Singh and Sharad Pawar(UPA) gives Modi a run for his money!
DELHI
"According to CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS election tracker both the AAP and BJP are expected to get 2-4 seats each in Delhi. The Congress is expected to get 0-2 seats according to the seat projection by Prof. Rajeeva Kharandikar, Director, Chennai Mathematical Institute, Chennai. The Congress seems to have slightly recovered from the devastating loss in Assembly elections in the last three months.
The Aam Aadmi Party and the BJP are likely to have a neck and neck fight in the 7 Lok Sabha seats of Delhi in the coming elections. According to the survey, the AAP vote share has come down by a huge 13 per cent when compared to our previous survey conducted in January. In January the AAP had got 48 per cent vote share and the BJP had 30 per cent while the Congress had got a mere 16 per cent vote share.
The popularity of the AAP seems to have taken a big hit in the last two months. The survey findings show that the BJP has gained 6 per cent votes and the Congress also has gained 6 per cent votes during the same period." (Source: CNNIBN)
In just one month, AAP vote share is projected to have plunged from a whopping 48% to 35% - a massive negative 12% swing but very predictably projected as trailing BJP by a mere 1%!!! CNNIBN-CSDS accordingly predicts a dead heat between the AAP and BJP with seat and vote shares split very evenly between the two! The Congress vote share spikes mysteriously by 6% that translates between 0-2 seats! The image conjured is that as if AAP is losing steam....
"The AAP has something to cheer about. Interestingly, it is still the most favoured choice of Delhiites, if the Assembly elections are once again held today. A whopping 46 per cent voters still back the AAP for the state Assembly. The BJP has got just 30 per cent and the Congress has got just 18 per cent votes for the Delhi assembly." (Source: CNNIBN)
But then the survey predicts AAP will sweep the Delhi Assembly as and when held. This was an image Rajdeep Sardesai (maybe to adhere to the script handed to him by his sponsors) tried to conjure – mentioning again and again that AAP was a regional party confined to the National Capital Region (NCR)...But again even if these figures were taken as true, it is possible that AAP voters may take to voting Congress for Lok Sabha and AAP for Assembly which could be one of the X factors which not surprisingly Rajdeep Sardesai and Sandeep Shastry chose to ignore! What if AAP and the Congress were to strike an alliance in Delhi??? Can't it be an X factor? The possibility was overlooked by this duo! If Paswan and Modi can hug and kiss, why not AAP and Congress???
AAP
Then again, when we look at the panel discussion, it was not so much Maharashtra or Delhi the focus but AAP. Their aim was clear by another CNNIBN headline
“AAP declines in 6 states post January” as portrayed in the table above.
But then this was based on data wherein respondents assumed by and large AAP was not a contestant in their respective states. But asked specifically if AAP were to contest would they vote for them, the potential of AAP as a vote getter is ably clear from the table above. Here lies the tale and why Mukesh Ambani controlled media like CNNIBN tries to mislead audience that AAP has lost steam and just has a regional reach!
CONCLUSION
For a change, the panel discussion stayed mostly away from UPA-Congress bashing. This did not stop them from painting the Congress as sucked into a vortex of secular decline even when in Maharashtra the party was projected just 3% down from 2009 – well within CNNIBN-CSDS margin of error...It was also refreshing to note that Sandeep Shastry for much of the time wore his hat as a pollster, explaining the numbers and not espousing his own worldview of politics! The tone and tenor was more sombre than past that shows how much #OperationPrimeMinister sting has brought both pollsters and media down to earth due to loss of massive credibility. For the first time these jokers are realizing that their findings are closely documented, critiqued and increasingly to be flashed back at them as their track record though they try had to conceal their extremely chequered track record. So well done #OperationPrimeMinister and may your tribe increase!
