Indian Political Corner | All Updates & Discussions.
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Nair saab
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All these Anna munna people are Idiots ... Gosh I dont even trust this Baba Ramdev guy ... These people are just opportunist ...
Thats why sane people like Kiren bedi and VK sir joined BJP and santosh hedge didnt even take that risk ...
Kiren bedi is joining BJP because she is feeling guilty of been a part of play which unleashed national Disaster called AAP on India ...
never trust any activist's and NGO people ... these people think that what they do is only right ... and most of them are foreign funded and have a Anti-national agenda ...
blood
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i totally agree with the highlighted part.
modi should not fall in the trap of this baba ramdev , he is just an attention seeking opportunistic piece of sh#t. He wants to launch his own political career on platform of peoples anger towards congress , knows nothing about economics but keeps nagging about swiz money , corruption etc etc , modi should use him very well before election and then after he wins he should show him the door.
in the entire team anna i had respect only for kiran bedi , she always tries to find the best solution to a problem rather then using it for their own benefits. I think modi himself has a very good equation with bedi , he has even many times discussed with her how police reforms can be brought in for better governance.
GreenFoe
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NO!!
Baba ramdev is a hard worker with very good organizational strength,he really appeals to rural and semi urban areas,helped bjp in assembly elections too .
Nair saab
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Now here is Amir...
Aamir Khan prefers Islam over Hinduism on MSN Video
Amir Makes Millions selling Indias Poverty to Indians itself while not helping a Single poor with those money...
Aamir Khan prefers Islam over Hinduism on MSN Video
Amir Makes Millions selling Indias Poverty to Indians itself while not helping a Single poor with those money...
blood
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i honestly feel , babas , retired criketers and actors should never be allowed to enter into politics.
they can help a party win the elections by using their popularity but when it comes to administration or governance they have nothing to offer.
again its just my personal opinion , you might see it differently
JanjaWeed
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He does subtle messaging,campaigned against modi with medha patkar :|
If I'm not wrong... he even joined Medha Patker in her Narmada bachao andolan against Gujarat govt's decision to build sardar sarovar dam. & his movie Fanaa was also unofficially banned in Gujarat. Amir Khan has a history of confrontation with Modi & Gujarat administration...
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Did CNNIBN-CSDS apply the sampling error manipulation trick for their Chattisgarh projections?
“In one instance, pollster Yashwant Deshmukh of CVoter, told the News Express channel’s undercover reporter that while 3% was the standard margin of error, “at best, we can put it to 5%”.
The duo, Rajdeep Sardesai (who works in Mukesh Ambani controlled CNNIBN) and Dr. Sandeep Shastri (of Ford Foundation funded CSDS) is back publishing a national opinion poll, beginning on Monday. Those who want to watch pure entertainment can tune in and enjoy one free.
Last November, both these characters were in their elements in trying to project Raman Singh's BJP government attracting what they described as a pro-incumbency advantage. They made this claim repeatedly in their opinion polls. Their last November 2013 opinion poll for the state of Chattisgarh can be compared with the actual results as provided above.
What the data clearly establishes is that CSDS over-estimated the BJP by 4% and under-estimated the Congress by a whopping 8% to provide the BJP a winning margin by an even more whopping 14%. Compare this to what Yashwant Deshmukh of CVoter (caught on tape by #OperationPrimeMinister) attributed as the industry standard of permissible limits to raw data tweaks to either favour or disfavour a political party or both – plus/minus 5%.
Obviously this duo Rajdeep Sardesai-Sandeep Shastri managed to do even much better the industry standards of data manipulation that can lead us to conclude that either the CNNIBN-CSDS are an apology for opinion polls in terms of their skill & accuracy and/or this duo perhaps are the most unscrupulous within the entire industry!
BJP's creating a wave through rigging opinion polls go bust!
Fraud polls.....a sinister BJP strategy? (Prashant Pandey in The Real Truth)
The Economic Times talks of a sting operation conducted by a TV channel called News Express which shows that
"undercover reporters agreed to manipulate poll data". It adds "Clips from the sting operation aired by the channel showed many pollsters agreeing to produce favourable numbers by leveraging the so-called margin of error, a statistical concept meant to indicate the quality of sampling and the accuracy to be expected from survey results".
The fact is that the manipulation goes way beyond playing with statistical errors. The methods, and intentions, are far more sinister.
But before that, lets look at who has been the beneficiary of these fraud polls. One single party, the BJP. The BJP has been showing rising with every poll, creating the illusion of a wave. The timing of the wave was always suspicious. It rose with the appointment of Narendra Modi first as the poll campaign chief of his party, and later, and at a much faster pace, after he was made the PM nominee. If someone is paying off the field researcher to show a favorable result, who could it be? I think we are smart enough to figure that out!
The methods, like I said earlier, are far more sinister than merely "leveraging" some "sample of error". That's just the talk of a guilty man trying to drown his crime in a lot of mumbo-jumbo. Of course, all researches have errors, but a research is designed in a way that keeps error at an acceptable level. And depending on the design and the sample size, certain data cuts are not permited because the error would be too high. Error is central to any sampling; there is no surprise, nor possibility of an excuse, in error rates.
But there are other more devious ways used to manipulate results. A field researcher may simply "fudge" the questionnaire, filling exactly what he wants to fill without so much as bothering to ask the respondent for his/her views. Or changing the respondent's answers even after recording them on the questionnaire.
Or entering the wrong responses into the "system" so as to suit the sponsor. This is all too common because the field agency is under pressure to deliver "cheap". Well, respondents deliver real quick by filling the questionnaires all up at home, or resorting to the tricks mentioned before! In the process, they also make themselves richer by a fair bit.
“In one instance, pollster Yashwant Deshmukh of CVoter, told the News Express channel’s undercover reporter that while 3% was the standard margin of error, “at best, we can put it to 5%”.
The duo, Rajdeep Sardesai (who works in Mukesh Ambani controlled CNNIBN) and Dr. Sandeep Shastri (of Ford Foundation funded CSDS) is back publishing a national opinion poll, beginning on Monday. Those who want to watch pure entertainment can tune in and enjoy one free.
Last November, both these characters were in their elements in trying to project Raman Singh's BJP government attracting what they described as a pro-incumbency advantage. They made this claim repeatedly in their opinion polls. Their last November 2013 opinion poll for the state of Chattisgarh can be compared with the actual results as provided above.
What the data clearly establishes is that CSDS over-estimated the BJP by 4% and under-estimated the Congress by a whopping 8% to provide the BJP a winning margin by an even more whopping 14%. Compare this to what Yashwant Deshmukh of CVoter (caught on tape by #OperationPrimeMinister) attributed as the industry standard of permissible limits to raw data tweaks to either favour or disfavour a political party or both – plus/minus 5%.
Obviously this duo Rajdeep Sardesai-Sandeep Shastri managed to do even much better the industry standards of data manipulation that can lead us to conclude that either the CNNIBN-CSDS are an apology for opinion polls in terms of their skill & accuracy and/or this duo perhaps are the most unscrupulous within the entire industry!
Poor Yashwant Deshkukh ended up in the doghouse summarily dismissed as a fraud even when there are actually likes of Rajdeep Sardesai-Sandeep Shastri still at large. It must be pointed the only reason why CNNIBN-IBN was not part of the #OperationPrimeMinister sting was that they declined to meet the sting team ostensibly since they claimed they were overbooked for the season and unable to take up new business! Media sources however suggest they were tipped off on the sting.
Of course you can bet both Rajdeep Sardesai and Sandeep Shastry would dish out a galore of spin to favour the opinion poll industry and their own credentials. You can take for granted too that their Chattisgarh predictions will never be a mentioned.
What they will probably not tell you are the following:
a.What are the credentials of Sandeep Shastry in psephology? Is he a trained psephologist as his qualifications is basically in Political Science?
b.What is the track record of CSDS forecast since Sandeep Shastry replaced Yogendra Yadav?
c.Is the editorial policy of CNNIBN politically neutral or posses a pro-Modi bias as widely perceived?
d.How have Rajdeep’s and his wife’s (Sagarika Ghose), Editor and Dy Editor of CNNIBN respectively, tweets complaining of media freedom being under threat influenced the bias of these polls?
e.What is the margin of error of these polls and in terms of vote-seat projections what does it amount to?
f.How do they explain projections like Chattisgarh – repeat “errors” where they projected BJP leads in double digits while the gap was as close as 0.6%?
g.Will they get critics of opinion polls and those discredited by #OperationPrimeMinister like Yashwant Deskukh on their show while spinning in favour of such polls like theirs
h.What is the source of funding? What is the total budget? What proportion is accounted by fieldwork?
b.What is the track record of CSDS forecast since Sandeep Shastry replaced Yogendra Yadav?
c.Is the editorial policy of CNNIBN politically neutral or posses a pro-Modi bias as widely perceived?
d.How have Rajdeep’s and his wife’s (Sagarika Ghose), Editor and Dy Editor of CNNIBN respectively, tweets complaining of media freedom being under threat influenced the bias of these polls?
e.What is the margin of error of these polls and in terms of vote-seat projections what does it amount to?
f.How do they explain projections like Chattisgarh – repeat “errors” where they projected BJP leads in double digits while the gap was as close as 0.6%?
g.Will they get critics of opinion polls and those discredited by #OperationPrimeMinister like Yashwant Deskukh on their show while spinning in favour of such polls like theirs
h.What is the source of funding? What is the total budget? What proportion is accounted by fieldwork?
BJP's creating a wave through rigging opinion polls go bust!
Fraud polls.....a sinister BJP strategy? (Prashant Pandey in The Real Truth)
The Economic Times talks of a sting operation conducted by a TV channel called News Express which shows that
"undercover reporters agreed to manipulate poll data". It adds "Clips from the sting operation aired by the channel showed many pollsters agreeing to produce favourable numbers by leveraging the so-called margin of error, a statistical concept meant to indicate the quality of sampling and the accuracy to be expected from survey results".
The fact is that the manipulation goes way beyond playing with statistical errors. The methods, and intentions, are far more sinister.
But before that, lets look at who has been the beneficiary of these fraud polls. One single party, the BJP. The BJP has been showing rising with every poll, creating the illusion of a wave. The timing of the wave was always suspicious. It rose with the appointment of Narendra Modi first as the poll campaign chief of his party, and later, and at a much faster pace, after he was made the PM nominee. If someone is paying off the field researcher to show a favorable result, who could it be? I think we are smart enough to figure that out!
The methods, like I said earlier, are far more sinister than merely "leveraging" some "sample of error". That's just the talk of a guilty man trying to drown his crime in a lot of mumbo-jumbo. Of course, all researches have errors, but a research is designed in a way that keeps error at an acceptable level. And depending on the design and the sample size, certain data cuts are not permited because the error would be too high. Error is central to any sampling; there is no surprise, nor possibility of an excuse, in error rates.
But there are other more devious ways used to manipulate results. A field researcher may simply "fudge" the questionnaire, filling exactly what he wants to fill without so much as bothering to ask the respondent for his/her views. Or changing the respondent's answers even after recording them on the questionnaire.
Or entering the wrong responses into the "system" so as to suit the sponsor. This is all too common because the field agency is under pressure to deliver "cheap". Well, respondents deliver real quick by filling the questionnaires all up at home, or resorting to the tricks mentioned before! In the process, they also make themselves richer by a fair bit.
Don't believe this? Consider this. A 20,000 sample size research should cost up to Rs 2-3 crores at current rates. If the fieldwork involves extensive travel into remote villages, the costs could increase beyond this. Which news channel has so much budget? Many of these news channels do 3-5 polls before an election. How can they afford so many? I'll tell you how. They get it done cheap! (For the official records, they say that the research costs are shared with a newspaper, but in reality, that would only halve the cost....not make it so affordable).
The second sinister reason is even more sinister (perhaps). The researcher goes to a home, finds it to be a supporter of an "opposing" party, and simply skips the home! Simple and damned effective! He then goes to a home where he finds a supporter of his devious sponsor, and finishes the interview there. Clearly, the results will make the sponsor happy!
A 3rd devious design is when information of the "starting point" of the fieldwork gets known to the sponsor in advance. The starting point is where, typically, a researcher begins his survey, and to eliminate any sampling bias, he follows a"right hand rule"to cover the first few houses he encounters. If this starting point is known in advance, the sponsor plugs his messages into those homes in advance, thus influencing the minds of those respondents.
This is why polls results are so different from reality. In 2004 and 2009, the Congress was shown to be the loser, just like it is being shown today. In both times, the BJP was expected to "romp home". The reality couldnt have been farther from the truth. The BJP was trounced, the Congress emerged stronger in 2009. Take the recent assembly polls. All pollsters got AAP wrong. Why? Because maybe their sponsor was not AAP! Simple....In all examples, the BJP is the biggest beneficiary of these polls. Not surprising it is the only party that is opposing the Election Commission's own view that opinion polls should be banned.
In today's ET, BJP spokesperson Prakash Javdekar has given a silly statement
The second sinister reason is even more sinister (perhaps). The researcher goes to a home, finds it to be a supporter of an "opposing" party, and simply skips the home! Simple and damned effective! He then goes to a home where he finds a supporter of his devious sponsor, and finishes the interview there. Clearly, the results will make the sponsor happy!
A 3rd devious design is when information of the "starting point" of the fieldwork gets known to the sponsor in advance. The starting point is where, typically, a researcher begins his survey, and to eliminate any sampling bias, he follows a"right hand rule"to cover the first few houses he encounters. If this starting point is known in advance, the sponsor plugs his messages into those homes in advance, thus influencing the minds of those respondents.
This is why polls results are so different from reality. In 2004 and 2009, the Congress was shown to be the loser, just like it is being shown today. In both times, the BJP was expected to "romp home". The reality couldnt have been farther from the truth. The BJP was trounced, the Congress emerged stronger in 2009. Take the recent assembly polls. All pollsters got AAP wrong. Why? Because maybe their sponsor was not AAP! Simple....In all examples, the BJP is the biggest beneficiary of these polls. Not surprising it is the only party that is opposing the Election Commission's own view that opinion polls should be banned.
In today's ET, BJP spokesperson Prakash Javdekar has given a silly statement
"We haven’t yet demanded a ban because these are just opinion polls, and people vote on their own considerations".
Really? And how do people form their "considerations"? ONLY and ONLY via media. Consider this. Most people think UPA2 is very corrupt. How do these people have this opinion? Did any of them personally read the CAG's report on 2G or coal? Did any of them do any "chai pe charcha" (that hyped-up smokescreen to justify the fraud poll results) to unearth nuggets of wisdom from scratch? No. They all read the papers and worse....watched the news (often called Horror Entertainment Channels!).
The BJP's game plan could be to influence the voters and make them vote for it. That is why they are creating this bogus fear of a "hung Parliament", and the need for a "decisive verdict". An otherwise moderate Hindu, worried about the country's economic problems but not supporting the BJP's polarizing politics, could be made to swing towards the BJP by creating the impression that it is "nearly there". A Muslim who would traditionally vote for the SP in UP would swing towards the BSP thinking "all" have shifted loyalties....helping divide the Muslim vote and the BJP.
Influencing public opinion is an attack on democracy. It is fooling the public. How can a party that does this be trusted? Already we've heard of noted journalists like Sagarika Ghose, Siddharth Varadarajan, Hartosh Singh Bal.....and dare I add the name of Tarun Tejpal to this list....being ousted from their jobs for political reasons (they are no Congress afficianados by the way).
The BJP's game plan could be to influence the voters and make them vote for it. That is why they are creating this bogus fear of a "hung Parliament", and the need for a "decisive verdict". An otherwise moderate Hindu, worried about the country's economic problems but not supporting the BJP's polarizing politics, could be made to swing towards the BJP by creating the impression that it is "nearly there". A Muslim who would traditionally vote for the SP in UP would swing towards the BSP thinking "all" have shifted loyalties....helping divide the Muslim vote and the BJP.
Influencing public opinion is an attack on democracy. It is fooling the public. How can a party that does this be trusted? Already we've heard of noted journalists like Sagarika Ghose, Siddharth Varadarajan, Hartosh Singh Bal.....and dare I add the name of Tarun Tejpal to this list....being ousted from their jobs for political reasons (they are no Congress afficianados by the way).
The party that influences public opinion and gets after journalists won't think twice before muting out every opposing voice when it comes to power. Don't believe it? See how Muslims in Gujarat hardly have any voice left. They dont dare to even carry out a street morcha! When Haren Pandya started to croak, he was silenced by someone (His family accuses Modi; not proven though).
The real truthis that I have always said that opinion polls were fraudulent. It's now been proven by this sting operation. Fortunately, Times Now has said it wont use C-Voter again. But will they use someone else who might be as fraudulent? The problem is not with C-Voter. The problem is with the party that funds these pollsters....the party that is shown as the beneficiary?
The real truthis that I have always said that opinion polls were fraudulent. It's now been proven by this sting operation. Fortunately, Times Now has said it wont use C-Voter again. But will they use someone else who might be as fraudulent? The problem is not with C-Voter. The problem is with the party that funds these pollsters....the party that is shown as the beneficiary?
jha
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^^^^^ Hahahaha... Rajdeep and his team are BJP agents now..? 
They even erred in under reporting BJP's winning margin in MP and Rajsthan.. I guess they took money from BJP in Chhatisgarh and from Congress in Rakasthan and MP...
They even erred in under reporting BJP's winning margin in MP and Rajsthan.. I guess they took money from BJP in Chhatisgarh and from Congress in Rakasthan and MP...
NKVD
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Brother he is congressi by blood he is coming from the family of Great Abul Kalam Azad
He does subtle messaging,campaigned against modi with medha patkar :|
jha
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jha
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Another one..
Why Modi is popular
The closer the election, the clearer it becomes that this is the most important general election since 1977. In that distant year, Indian voters were offered a choice between a dictator and her son on one side and a raggedy, disparate caboodle of crusaders for democracy on the other. They chose the caboodle mostly because they had learned the hard way what losing democracy meant. This time the choice increasingly appears to be between the past and the future, between an old idea of India and a new one. Those selling the old idea, in their different ways, are the Congress, the Aam Aadmi Party and the ‘secular socialists’ who banded together last week as a third front.
What is the old idea of India? It is the one bequeathed us by Nehruvian socialism whereby we have created India as she is today. A land in which a vast infrastructure of politicians, officials, clerks and peons govern badly an angry and restless populace that no longer understands why basic needs are so hard to meet. A land in which young people demand to know why the sons of officials and politicians live like billionaires while they hunt desperately for jobs in a market that in the past 10 years has dried up. So crony capitalism is a favourite catchphrase with the AAP lot, without them noticing that this is always a creation of the state. In the eyes of AAP, it is corporate India that is to blame.
What is most depressing is that if you talk to leaders of the parties in the old India club, the solutions they offer are no different to the ones we have already tried. In their campaign speeches, they talk of secularism and socialism, poverty alleviation schemes and empowering women. On corruption, the Lokpal is a ‘new’ idea that has been around for 40 years. They know that they offer nothing new, so they throw in dark references to the man they most fear and loathe. Narendra Modi.
The reason why they fear and loathe him is because his popularity, according to recent polls, has increased dramatically despite repeated attempts by the old India club to remind voters that he is a ‘maut ka saudagar’. A merchant of death as Sonia Gandhi famously called him. What they seem not to have noticed is that his popularity has increased because he has succeeded in selling voters a new dream of India. In a sales pitch to businessmen in Delhi last Thursday, he offered a detailed account of what his priorities will be if he becomes prime minister.
After making it clear that he believed that India’s strengths were “democracy, demography and demand” and its weaknesses were serious deficits of governance, trust, morality and hope, Modi made the case for what he thinks can be done. He said nothing could improve without “good governance”. He did not say in so many words that by this he meant massive administrative reforms, but used anecdotes from Gujarat to make this point.
Then he talked of needing to improve “the quality of life” for the average Indian. It was vital to make India a country in which young people could live with hope and dignity, he said, and for this they needed jobs and the amenities that remain mostly unavailable to rural Indians. Electricity, clean water and a standard of living that could be described as a standard of living. He said, “We need in rural India to keep the soul of the villages but provide people with the utilities and services available in urban centres.” He reiterated that he saw urbanisation not as a problem but as an opportunity.
What touched my own cynical soul to its core was his suggestion, when talking of healthcare, that we pledge to make India clean and sanitary by the 150th anniversary of Gandhiji’s birthday. This was the best tribute that could be paid Gandhiji, Modi said, because he had worked so hard to convince Indians of the importance of sanitation and hygiene. In modern terms, Modi emphasised, the benefit would be a huge reduction in India’s healthcare bills, because it would shift the emphasis to prevention from cure.
He talked of many other things and in talking of them made it sound as if there was no reason at all why they could not be done. Listen to the whole speech on YouTube and you may discover the real reason why Modi leads the race to become India’s next prime minister. He offers hope in a time of deep despair and he offers a dream of prosperity at the end of a decade when the Indian economy has sunk to its lowest ebb in recent memory. The old India club offers only ‘poverty alleviation’ to people sick to death of poverty.
Why Modi is popular
The closer the election, the clearer it becomes that this is the most important general election since 1977. In that distant year, Indian voters were offered a choice between a dictator and her son on one side and a raggedy, disparate caboodle of crusaders for democracy on the other. They chose the caboodle mostly because they had learned the hard way what losing democracy meant. This time the choice increasingly appears to be between the past and the future, between an old idea of India and a new one. Those selling the old idea, in their different ways, are the Congress, the Aam Aadmi Party and the ‘secular socialists’ who banded together last week as a third front.
What is the old idea of India? It is the one bequeathed us by Nehruvian socialism whereby we have created India as she is today. A land in which a vast infrastructure of politicians, officials, clerks and peons govern badly an angry and restless populace that no longer understands why basic needs are so hard to meet. A land in which young people demand to know why the sons of officials and politicians live like billionaires while they hunt desperately for jobs in a market that in the past 10 years has dried up. So crony capitalism is a favourite catchphrase with the AAP lot, without them noticing that this is always a creation of the state. In the eyes of AAP, it is corporate India that is to blame.
What is most depressing is that if you talk to leaders of the parties in the old India club, the solutions they offer are no different to the ones we have already tried. In their campaign speeches, they talk of secularism and socialism, poverty alleviation schemes and empowering women. On corruption, the Lokpal is a ‘new’ idea that has been around for 40 years. They know that they offer nothing new, so they throw in dark references to the man they most fear and loathe. Narendra Modi.
The reason why they fear and loathe him is because his popularity, according to recent polls, has increased dramatically despite repeated attempts by the old India club to remind voters that he is a ‘maut ka saudagar’. A merchant of death as Sonia Gandhi famously called him. What they seem not to have noticed is that his popularity has increased because he has succeeded in selling voters a new dream of India. In a sales pitch to businessmen in Delhi last Thursday, he offered a detailed account of what his priorities will be if he becomes prime minister.
After making it clear that he believed that India’s strengths were “democracy, demography and demand” and its weaknesses were serious deficits of governance, trust, morality and hope, Modi made the case for what he thinks can be done. He said nothing could improve without “good governance”. He did not say in so many words that by this he meant massive administrative reforms, but used anecdotes from Gujarat to make this point.
Then he talked of needing to improve “the quality of life” for the average Indian. It was vital to make India a country in which young people could live with hope and dignity, he said, and for this they needed jobs and the amenities that remain mostly unavailable to rural Indians. Electricity, clean water and a standard of living that could be described as a standard of living. He said, “We need in rural India to keep the soul of the villages but provide people with the utilities and services available in urban centres.” He reiterated that he saw urbanisation not as a problem but as an opportunity.
What touched my own cynical soul to its core was his suggestion, when talking of healthcare, that we pledge to make India clean and sanitary by the 150th anniversary of Gandhiji’s birthday. This was the best tribute that could be paid Gandhiji, Modi said, because he had worked so hard to convince Indians of the importance of sanitation and hygiene. In modern terms, Modi emphasised, the benefit would be a huge reduction in India’s healthcare bills, because it would shift the emphasis to prevention from cure.
He talked of many other things and in talking of them made it sound as if there was no reason at all why they could not be done. Listen to the whole speech on YouTube and you may discover the real reason why Modi leads the race to become India’s next prime minister. He offers hope in a time of deep despair and he offers a dream of prosperity at the end of a decade when the Indian economy has sunk to its lowest ebb in recent memory. The old India club offers only ‘poverty alleviation’ to people sick to death of poverty.
jha
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A wonderful article by none other than M.J.Akbar..
Party’s over for socialists
Revolutions, famously, are devoured by their children. It was characteristic of Indian socialists that they waited until senility to gobble up the caste-and-community insurrection conceived by Dr Ram Manohar Lohia in the 1950s and 1960s. There will be many stories within and around the 2014 general elections. A principal occurrence will be the earthquake that swallows the socialists. Its epicenter will be Bihar, but the perimeter of devastation will extend across Uttar Pradesh.
The last three heirs of Lohia, Nitish Kumar, Lalu Prasad Yadav and Mulayam Singh Yadav surely know in their hearts what their minds might refuse to admit. The party’s over. Ever since they first sipped power at the fountain of coalitions in 1967, one fact has been transparently clear. Indian socialists have always been far better at politics than government. Such talent should not be underestimated in a democracy. It is difficult enough to win elections even after delivering on the promise of incremental prosperity. To do so through sheer emotional arithmetic is genius.
Since that high point of emotion in 1989, when temple, mosque and caste dominated the debate, Lohia’s children have ruled Bihar with a tenacity that remains a formidable tribute to their rhetorical craft.
Their formula began to seem infallible: the Chief Minister’s loyal castes were rewarded with a stake in power, allies were kept onside with marginal benefits, and the vital Muslim vote was patched on with a debilitating concoction of illusion and fear. Muslims got prayer and tokenism; jobs went to others. Religion became the opium of the people.
Nitish Kumar’s brief encounter with glory had little to do with the quality of governance. He was the much-needed relief vessel after the Lalu shipwreck. His years in power were primarily consumed by a relentless search of sub-castes to knead into a political dividend. It was vote bank politics, but with rural banks, a low capital base and insufficient transactions. As a long-term business model, it offered little chance of success. Now that Nitish Kumar has run out of time and ideas, the alibi game has begun. It won’t work.
His problem was compounded by the disability that Indian socialism, like its cousins across the globe, simply did not have the legs to stride into the 21st century. Nor did its leaders possess the imagination to re-invent their philosophy, and adjust dogma to new demands. Its office-bearers became its pall-bearers.
Today’s voter is sick to the stomach of deceptive jargon. Politics, unfortunately, has become a malevolent word. Indians want jobs, security and empowerment through economic growth. They are equally tired of the misuse of secularism to justify corruption, dynasty and piteously weak administration. In any case, when the opening sentence of a book on Narendra Modi’s views states that secularism is the equality of all faiths before the law, when he avers in his speeches that the only religion of a politician is the Constitution of India, there is not much left to discuss apart from riots. Voters then compare facts. They know that a former Gujarat minister is in jail, while no one has been punished for the Sikh massacres of 1984 or the vicious Mumbai riots of 1992-93.
This is why Ram Vilas Paswan, who left the BJP coalition a decade ago over riots, will become a partner in 2014 and address a rally alongside Modi in Bihar. This is why America’s ambassador Nancy Powell goes with conciliatory flowers to Ahmedabad. This is why BJP is picking up new allies each week. Once Bihar changes, you might say, there is nothing left to change.
The long-term consequences are significant. For four decades, Indian socialists have denied BJP primacy in the crucial Ganga-Jamuna belt. BJP was successful in displacing socialists in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan (Lohia’s home province), but could never quite get their act together in UP and Bihar. The party touched nadir when two years ago Mulayam Singh Yadav won UP by unprecedented margins, and Nitish Kumar chose this psychological moment to distance himself from BJP, and start a flirtation with Congress. Today, instead of being wooed, Nitish has been isolated. And Lalu Yadav, who was so certain about his own resurrection and Paswan’s subservience that he began issuing ultimatums, has been hit by a thunderbolt from blue skies.
If Bihar’s personality-driven socialists cannot recover, and it does seem unlikely, then the confrontation in UP and Bihar will become a direct contest between BJP and Congress. This process might take a little longer in UP, since Mayawati remains a formidable third force, but the trend cannot be missed.
No party can achieve a majority in the Lok Sabha on its own without significant support from UP and Bihar. 2014 could be the starting point of the return journey to stable government in Delhi.
Party’s over for socialists
Revolutions, famously, are devoured by their children. It was characteristic of Indian socialists that they waited until senility to gobble up the caste-and-community insurrection conceived by Dr Ram Manohar Lohia in the 1950s and 1960s. There will be many stories within and around the 2014 general elections. A principal occurrence will be the earthquake that swallows the socialists. Its epicenter will be Bihar, but the perimeter of devastation will extend across Uttar Pradesh.
The last three heirs of Lohia, Nitish Kumar, Lalu Prasad Yadav and Mulayam Singh Yadav surely know in their hearts what their minds might refuse to admit. The party’s over. Ever since they first sipped power at the fountain of coalitions in 1967, one fact has been transparently clear. Indian socialists have always been far better at politics than government. Such talent should not be underestimated in a democracy. It is difficult enough to win elections even after delivering on the promise of incremental prosperity. To do so through sheer emotional arithmetic is genius.
Since that high point of emotion in 1989, when temple, mosque and caste dominated the debate, Lohia’s children have ruled Bihar with a tenacity that remains a formidable tribute to their rhetorical craft.
Their formula began to seem infallible: the Chief Minister’s loyal castes were rewarded with a stake in power, allies were kept onside with marginal benefits, and the vital Muslim vote was patched on with a debilitating concoction of illusion and fear. Muslims got prayer and tokenism; jobs went to others. Religion became the opium of the people.
Nitish Kumar’s brief encounter with glory had little to do with the quality of governance. He was the much-needed relief vessel after the Lalu shipwreck. His years in power were primarily consumed by a relentless search of sub-castes to knead into a political dividend. It was vote bank politics, but with rural banks, a low capital base and insufficient transactions. As a long-term business model, it offered little chance of success. Now that Nitish Kumar has run out of time and ideas, the alibi game has begun. It won’t work.
His problem was compounded by the disability that Indian socialism, like its cousins across the globe, simply did not have the legs to stride into the 21st century. Nor did its leaders possess the imagination to re-invent their philosophy, and adjust dogma to new demands. Its office-bearers became its pall-bearers.
Today’s voter is sick to the stomach of deceptive jargon. Politics, unfortunately, has become a malevolent word. Indians want jobs, security and empowerment through economic growth. They are equally tired of the misuse of secularism to justify corruption, dynasty and piteously weak administration. In any case, when the opening sentence of a book on Narendra Modi’s views states that secularism is the equality of all faiths before the law, when he avers in his speeches that the only religion of a politician is the Constitution of India, there is not much left to discuss apart from riots. Voters then compare facts. They know that a former Gujarat minister is in jail, while no one has been punished for the Sikh massacres of 1984 or the vicious Mumbai riots of 1992-93.
This is why Ram Vilas Paswan, who left the BJP coalition a decade ago over riots, will become a partner in 2014 and address a rally alongside Modi in Bihar. This is why America’s ambassador Nancy Powell goes with conciliatory flowers to Ahmedabad. This is why BJP is picking up new allies each week. Once Bihar changes, you might say, there is nothing left to change.
The long-term consequences are significant. For four decades, Indian socialists have denied BJP primacy in the crucial Ganga-Jamuna belt. BJP was successful in displacing socialists in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan (Lohia’s home province), but could never quite get their act together in UP and Bihar. The party touched nadir when two years ago Mulayam Singh Yadav won UP by unprecedented margins, and Nitish Kumar chose this psychological moment to distance himself from BJP, and start a flirtation with Congress. Today, instead of being wooed, Nitish has been isolated. And Lalu Yadav, who was so certain about his own resurrection and Paswan’s subservience that he began issuing ultimatums, has been hit by a thunderbolt from blue skies.
If Bihar’s personality-driven socialists cannot recover, and it does seem unlikely, then the confrontation in UP and Bihar will become a direct contest between BJP and Congress. This process might take a little longer in UP, since Mayawati remains a formidable third force, but the trend cannot be missed.
No party can achieve a majority in the Lok Sabha on its own without significant support from UP and Bihar. 2014 could be the starting point of the return journey to stable government in Delhi.
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