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BJP alliance with Mayawati would lead to Upper castes deserting BJP en-mass. Mayawati has indulged in extreme anti upper-caste rhetoric and actions in past, and upper caste in case of a BJP-Mayawati alliance, would vote for Samajwadi party.

This is a misconception. Mayawati is a product of her times. A state where caste determines your economic and social opportunities. Truth is she still has immense support of the Dalits and other BC and with good reasons.

Mayawati has NOTHING to gain from joining up with BJP, everything to loose.

An alliance of BJP and Samajwadi party would lead to muslims deserting Samajwadi party, thus pretty much killing its political base. This alliance is impossible on that count, else neither do BJP and SP hate each other, nor do their electorate. I sometime even suspect that Mulayam (and Sharad Powar) are personally sympathetic to Hindutva (based on their hatred for Italian import ,hatred towards Pakistan, and some media utterance. Mulayam ,at times, sound like a pracharak when he talks to local media, san Hindutva refrences), but have to maintain Anti-Hindu posture for getting Muslims votes.

Everything you have said is true.

1. Mulayam and Sharad Pawar are closet Hindutvadi.
2. SP will never tie up with BJP cuz it will loose Muslim vote to BSP or CONgress. Like BSP it has NOTHING to gain, everything to loose.

Thus actually in UP, Mahagathbandhan is as much an opportunity for BJP, as it is danger.

What BJP need in UP is:

1. Cultivate local leaders.
Currently, Modi has become a one trick pony for BJP. I order to win, BJP need good local leaders.

2. Attract non-Yadavs OBCs towards BJP, and consolidate its upper caste vote bank.
When BJP won an absolute majority in UP, it did on back of non-Yadav OBCs like Lodhs. If BJP want to win power, it would need to attaract non-Yadav OBCs back into its fold. There is no alternative to that.

3. Communal polarisation.
Muslims always ,close to 95%, vote in same direction. It is not only a requirement ,but duty, of BJP to mobilise Hindus to undermine Muslim mobilization. Polarisation is needed and would work in West-UP. Here there is a serious amount of pent-up anger against both Muslims and Seculars, part of which has been contributed by Secular media bullying Hindus of West-UP for half a year or so. "Beef Lynching" and "Indian intolerant" issue may make feel liberals sitting in drawing rooms of Delhi feel all smug, but a common Hindu of Dadari ,who has been on the receiving end of that propaganda, would vote for BJP ,out of spite for seculars, irrespective of his caste.

1. Too little time to cultivate local leaders. Its a no brainier. Good local leaders are already swallowed up by BSP and SP.
2. This is BJP core base. Those who lie between BSP and SP.
3. This is the ONLY strategy that will work. But not by silly "love jihad" or something superficial. It has to be based on a genuine resentment and anger.

And this time, a big riot would be counterproductive. What BJP need in West-UP is to harness micro-conflicts for communal polarisation, not one singular big conflict. This mean more work and requirement of dynamism from ground workers, but it means that Hindu mobilization would occur without harming further prospects of mobilization, which a big riot does (it mobilize people for the moment, but is a subject to diminishing returns).

Any riot/injustice has to be Muslim inspired to polarize Hindu vote cutting across caste.

4. And off-course , a smattering of development agenda. Though development agenda does not mean much in UP and Bihar, but it would influence outcome on more than 50 Urban seats.
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BJP already has that image so they only need to keep repeating it.
 
Two sides of same coin.
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