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Yup no need to over expose Modi.But the writer is delusional when he says BJP will get Muslim votes if it becomes 'secular' - this is the kind of advice that ruined Vajpyee .BJP's best bet lies not in trying to woo Muslim votes for themselves but in dividing the vote bank

Right. That may work in Assam and will work for sure in Ktaka
 
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Had our country been a Muslim or even maybe Christian majority with such levels of poverty and backwardness, minorities would be wiped out long ago.



Kudos to lone working minister.

Gadkari,prabhu air 2-4 aur logh bhi kaam kar rahe hai
An had koi kejri jitna acha kaam toh nahi karsakta na :p:
 
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The Dadri Truth: A Personal Grudge Twisted Into a Communal Killing - Latest Political News, Business, Sports News, Entertainment News World News, Features, Video and Infographics

there are 34% muslims in assam and you believe polarization can fetch bjp remaining 66% votes..impossible imo. bjp needs to field honest patriotic indian muslims as candidates for 1/4 seats..
you are right about vajpayee mistake but polarisation may work in UP but not in assam as there will be no significant vote divison there and bjp being a new party in assam will not get all hindu votes.
there is no doubt bjp needs to decentralise now; local leaders are very important if bjp wants to rule for next 10-15 years...one more thing bjp needs to adapt itself according to different state politics..i mean different avatars for different states it can play " secular" in kerala, WB; tamil nationalist party in tamil nadu

By polarization i mean heavy anti immigrant rhetoric with an action plan on what they'll do if they come to power in manifesto not the usual cow/beef stuff.Its not like BJP's gonna win 63 on their own anyway they need an ally of some sorts.As for fielding 'patriotic Muslims' am pretty sure they're already on it - With eye on 2016 polls, BJP woos Muslims in Assam
 
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The Dadri Truth: A Personal Grudge Twisted Into a Communal Killing - Latest Political News, Business, Sports News, Entertainment News World News, Features, Video and Infographics



By polarization i mean heavy anti immigrant rhetoric with an action plan on what they'll do if they come to power in manifesto not the usual cow/beef stuff.Its not like BJP's gonna win 63 on their own anyway they need an ally of some sorts.As for fielding 'patriotic Muslims' am pretty sure they're already on it - With eye on 2016 polls, BJP woos Muslims in Assam
The Dadri Truth: A Personal Grudge Twisted Into a Communal Killing - Latest Political News, Business, Sports News, Entertainment News World News, Features, Video and Infographics



By polarization i mean heavy anti immigrant rhetoric with an action plan on what they'll do if they come to power in manifesto not the usual cow/beef stuff.Its not like BJP's gonna win 63 on their own anyway they need an ally of some sorts.As for fielding 'patriotic Muslims' am pretty sure they're already on it - With eye on 2016 polls, BJP woos Muslims in Assam
hemant biswa should be declared cm candidate then..only he has guts to execute the action plan you are talking about. before that bjp needs to do some serious groundwork on immigration issue..Rajnath singh or kiren rijiju needs to make monthly trip at indo-bangladesh border to check work on border infra
 
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BJP should work to sabotage any attempts to forming another MGB in UP and shouldn't try to foolishly take them head on like they did in Bihar.


Every state is not same.

In Bihar ,vote transfer occurred because Khurmis and Yadavs had hostile relations, but that hostility was not to the extent of them being outright animosity. And recent victim of that hostility were Yadavs, who had upper hand in this alliance, and were thus willing to forgive and forget.


In UP, lot of caste leaders ,and in some cases castes, despise each other.

Mayawati and Mulayam despise each other, and Dalit and Yadavs despise each other. An alliance between Mayawati and Mulayam ,is very unlikely, and would alienate large portions of Dalits, who if BJP play its card correctly, could come into BJPs fold. Dalits in UP ,though voter of Mayawati, had shown willingness to vote for both Congress and BJP, when they are not happy with Mayawati. Since Congress is a dead horse, BJP could reap fruits of Dalit disenchantment with Mayawati. This alliance may still pull through on basis of Muslim votes, but BJP would give a much better fight to a mahagathbandhan in UP, then it did in Bihar.

BJP alliance with Mayawati would lead to Upper castes deserting BJP en-mass. Mayawati has indulged in extreme anti upper-caste rhetoric and actions in past, and upper caste in case of a BJP-Mayawati alliance, would vote for Samajwadi party.

An alliance of BJP and Samajwadi party would lead to muslims deserting Samajwadi party, thus pretty much killing its political base. This alliance is impossible on that count, else neither do BJP and SP hate each other, nor do their electorate. I sometime even suspect that Mulayam (and Sharad Powar) are personally sympathetic to Hindutva (based on their hatred for Italian import ,hatred towards Pakistan, and some media utterance. Mulayam ,at times, sound like a pracharak when he talks to local media, san Hindutva refrences), but have to maintain Anti-Hindu posture for getting Muslims votes.


Thus actually in UP, Mahagathbandhan is as much an opportunity for BJP, as it is danger.


What BJP need in UP is:

1. Cultivate local leaders.

Currently, Modi has become a one trick pony for BJP. I order to win, BJP need good local leaders.

2. Attract non-Yadavs OBCs towards BJP, and consolidate its upper caste vote bank.

When BJP won an absolute majority in UP, it did on back of non-Yadav OBCs like Lodhs. If BJP want to win power, it would need to attaract non-Yadav OBCs back into its fold. There is no alternative to that.

3. Communal polarisation.

Muslims always ,close to 95%, vote in same direction. It is not only a requirement ,but duty, of BJP to mobilise Hindus to undermine Muslim mobilization. Polarisation is needed and would work in West-UP. Here there is a serious amount of pent-up anger against both Muslims and Seculars, part of which has been contributed by Secular media bullying Hindus of West-UP for half a year or so. "Beef Lynching" and "Indian intolerant" issue may make feel liberals sitting in drawing rooms of Delhi feel all smug, but a common Hindu of Dadari ,who has been on the receiving end of that propaganda, would vote for BJP ,out of spite for seculars, irrespective of his caste.

And this time, a big riot would be counterproductive. What BJP need in West-UP is to harness micro-conflicts for communal polarisation, not one singular big conflict. This mean more work and requirement of dynamism from ground workers, but it means that Hindu mobilization would occur without harming further prospects of mobilization, which a big riot does (it mobilize people for the moment, but is a subject to diminishing returns).

4. And off-course , a smattering of development agenda. Though development agenda does not mean much in UP and Bihar, but it would influence outcome on more than 50 Urban seats.

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@SarthakGanguly

You may like this song and its adaptation:

 
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Kya farak padta hai. After Bihar elections i won't be surprised if even Badals score a hattrick in Punjab.
Seems like you are confused somewhere. Badals are allies of BJP & BJP suffered defeat in Bihar. If current scenario continues till election then country will witness another Delhi type result. I don't know how badals will score a hattrick in Punjab but one thing is sure BJP will certainly score a 'duck'.
 
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