BJP should work to sabotage any attempts to forming another MGB in UP and shouldn't try to foolishly take them head on like they did in Bihar.
Every state is not same.
In Bihar ,vote transfer occurred because Khurmis and Yadavs had hostile relations, but that hostility was not to the extent of them being outright animosity. And recent victim of that hostility were Yadavs, who had upper hand in this alliance, and were thus willing to forgive and forget.
In UP, lot of caste leaders ,and in some cases castes, despise each other.
Mayawati and Mulayam despise each other, and Dalit and Yadavs despise each other. An alliance between Mayawati and Mulayam ,is very unlikely, and would alienate large portions of Dalits, who if BJP play its card correctly, could come into BJPs fold. Dalits in UP ,though voter of Mayawati, had shown willingness to vote for both Congress and BJP, when they are not happy with Mayawati. Since Congress is a dead horse, BJP could reap fruits of Dalit disenchantment with Mayawati. This alliance may still pull through on basis of Muslim votes, but BJP would give a much better fight to a mahagathbandhan in UP, then it did in Bihar.
BJP alliance with Mayawati would lead to Upper castes deserting BJP en-mass. Mayawati has indulged in extreme anti upper-caste rhetoric and actions in past, and upper caste in case of a BJP-Mayawati alliance, would vote for Samajwadi party.
An alliance of BJP and Samajwadi party would lead to muslims deserting Samajwadi party, thus pretty much killing its political base. This alliance is impossible on that count, else neither do BJP and SP hate each other, nor do their electorate. I sometime even suspect that Mulayam (and Sharad Powar) are personally sympathetic to Hindutva (based on their hatred for Italian import ,hatred towards Pakistan, and some media utterance. Mulayam ,at times, sound like a pracharak when he talks to local media, san Hindutva refrences), but have to maintain Anti-Hindu posture for getting Muslims votes.
Thus actually in UP, Mahagathbandhan is as much an opportunity for BJP, as it is danger.
What BJP need in UP is:
1. Cultivate local leaders.
Currently, Modi has become a one trick pony for BJP. I order to win, BJP need good local leaders.
2. Attract non-Yadavs OBCs towards BJP, and consolidate its upper caste vote bank.
When BJP won an absolute majority in UP, it did on back of non-Yadav OBCs like Lodhs. If BJP want to win power, it would need to attaract non-Yadav OBCs back into its fold. There is no alternative to that.
3. Communal polarisation.
Muslims always ,close to 95%, vote in same direction. It is not only a requirement ,but duty, of BJP to mobilise Hindus to undermine Muslim mobilization. Polarisation is needed and would work in West-UP. Here there is a serious amount of pent-up anger against both Muslims and Seculars, part of which has been contributed by Secular media bullying Hindus of West-UP for half a year or so. "Beef Lynching" and "Indian intolerant" issue may make feel liberals sitting in drawing rooms of Delhi feel all smug, but a common Hindu of Dadari ,who has been on the receiving end of that propaganda, would vote for BJP ,out of spite for seculars, irrespective of his caste.
And this time, a big riot would be counterproductive. What BJP need in West-UP is to harness micro-conflicts for communal polarisation, not one singular big conflict. This mean more work and requirement of dynamism from ground workers, but it means that Hindu mobilization would occur without harming further prospects of mobilization, which a big riot does (it mobilize people for the moment, but is a subject to diminishing returns).
4. And off-course , a smattering of development agenda. Though development agenda does not mean much in UP and Bihar, but it would influence outcome on more than 50 Urban seats.
........................................................................................................................................
@SarthakGanguly
You may like this song and its adaptation: