Looks that way. Mulayam pulling out of the coalition, so did NCP, now conglomerate of left parties throwing themselves into the mix...& to add cherry on top you have Owaisi still contemplating to fight on his own. They are giving Bihar in a platter to the BJP.. & Nitish will be left on his own to pick up the pieces. Even Laloo won't be there to watch his back once elections are done & dusted... In fact Laloo will blame Nitish for his loss..mark my words!
Whats Surprising is Mulayam has been close to Modi for some time now. I wonder if this all a part of Congress(and their Lackies) Mukt Bharat..
This is too good for the BJP to have not had a hand working in the shadows. Actually, I hope they did. Needs to be replicated in other states.
@ranjeet @Marxist @Makaramarma @Roybot @magudi
I think you people are giving BJP more credit than it deserves. Barring NCP, I don't think that any other development is BJP's doing.
The way I read this situation is that
1. SP is actively trying to sabotage all three, Congress RJD and JD(U). Mulayam here seem to be playing for bigger stakes, ie becoming sole leader of Yadavs. RJD has been out of power for so long that if Secular Mahagathbandhan loses, it would dissolve.
During JD(U)+BJP first term in Bihar, RJD at least was part of UPA in center and does have some patronage to distribute. Now it has been practically out of power for for 5 years and a loss would mean that it could not sustain its patronage structure, and being a non-ideological party, it would see a large exit of leaders.
JD(U) is in a sorrier state. Whether it wins or lose, there is not much future for JD(U) or Nitish. Unlike RJD, it does not have a large vote bank, neither is Nitish Kumar a charismatic leader. He is what Sushil Modi would be with Media support.He only has his track record which he has to share with BJP. Even if secular mahagathbandhan wins, Lalu would be puppetmaster of that gathbandhan with an emasculated Nitish being a rubber stamp.He is finished either in this term, or in next.
Less said about Congress, better it is. The 50 seats allocated to congress ,if they have non-Muslim majority, would be a steal, if BJP tries hard on them and get its arithmetic correct. Also I don't think Mulayam or Pawar like Italvi madam.
Mulayam may be looking for BJP vs SP contest in next election, instead of BJP vs Congress.
2. Left ,irrespective of all its rhetoric, was never comfortable with backward class leaders. It has some base in Dalits,who are in adversarial relation with Yadavs (this is pretty much the same story in whole of India. People harp upon Brahmin vs Dalits, while on ground it is mostly OBC vs Dalit)
3. NCP may have an understanding with BJP, though it too may have broken loose due to paltry 3 seats being offered. NCP is not a recognized brand in Bihar and is dependent on its MLAs completely. If it refuses ticket to a worthy candidate, it dies on that seat with no chance of revival.
4. In my opinion, if MIM contests, it would contest only on selective seats, least it be branded as B team of BJP. There are seats in Bihar which have muslim majority. On those seats, even a total Hindu mobilization would yield zlich for Hindus. MIM in my opinion would focus on and win from Muslim seats.
