Nice post, but some corrections.
The P8Is are the LRMR aircrafts that will replace the Tu142, just like the MRMR aircrafts will replace the IL 38s, so by 2020 these Russian aircrafts will be gone.
Also, when you look at the IN airwing Wiki or BR navy aviation and you will see that IN don't have a dedicated transport fleet.
The Tu-142 have recently got mid life upgrades, increasing there life by 16 years which means that they will be in the IN's inventory up till 2025 for sure, don't know about IL 38s though.
+ yes P-8Is are the LRMR, currently we have ordered a total of 12 a/c but the no. will surely increase to 24.
+ I don't think IN needs a dedicated transport fleet for the amphibious warfare they will need LSD, LPD etc. which they are working on but transport fleet if ever needed can be utilized that of IAF.
1. Not for the first 2 carriers, unless N-LCA won't be another development disaster
2. The RFI was for reportedly for 40 fighters and I think the frontrunners are Rafale and F18SH, but with the delays of the carrier development, the whole idea could be scrapped in favor for a naval 5th gen fighter.
By 5th gen fighter u mean N-FGFA, which will only be possible around 2025 or so, so i don't think IN will wait that much for a MMRCA aircraft unless F-35 is ordered (but of course it comes with conditions which IN will never adhere to). So best aircraft around 2017 time frame (since than i think IN will order a MMRCA) will be Rafale b'coz of the type compatibility with IAF.
3. ordered are 6 so far, but they will be MK1 prototypes. The MK2 version is speculated in numbers of up to 60, depending on source. Wait and see
I think if HAL can make this one right, IN will not shy away from giving huge orders, everything depends on the time & cost that HAL takes to develop a N-LCA.
4. 12 ordered, additional orders might depend on MRMR selection too
This one, 24 for sure.
6. Depends on the viewpoint. There are not many navies that will have 2 dedicated aircraft carriers by 2020, on the other side a single Chinese or French carrier offer slightly less, but more capable fighters.
The MPA fleet will be the most modern in the world behind the US, the ASW helicopter fleet will be big and capable too.
7. For the Indian Ocean area, they will provide the first line of defence against any enemy naval fleet and since there is no other country in that area that has similar capabilities, it will be a very strong asset.
But when the aim is to project the power to the east, in case of an Indo-Chinese war, the capabilities will be not enough, especially China has a numerically superior sub fleet.
When we compare IN to PLAN we usually compare entire PLAN's might to that of IN, but we often forgot that PLAN hands will be tied in SCS & Pacific b'coz of USN shifting 60% fleet there & b'coz of the no. of disputes with the regional countries. PLAN at best can bring 10-15% of there resources to IOR, compared to that IN is a very strong & capable force, not to forgot that it holds Chinese lifeline of Malacca.
Any shore based air defence will be of IAF, not IN. That's why IAF is raising MKI squads in the east and south to provide the necessary maritime attack capability. Rafale might be added at some of these airbases too, although I think they are more important in the north east area.
So, is it possible that IAF buys combat jets on IN's budget & operate itself, just like it does for the armed helos, but I don't think IN will give a go ahead for that, it wants to have it's own say as far as maritime affairs of India are concerned.
+ IMO with such a massive expansion of IN air arm, by 2020 it can easily be included in top-20 air forces of the world (if we count every naval air arm of a country as an air force in itself), it can become large enough to have a direct effect on any land conflict in which India is involved.
Are we going to see combination of Mig-29k and NLCA on IAC-2 also ??
which will come after 2020...
Mig 29k & NLCA i guess will only be for INS viky & IAC-1, but with IAC-2, IN will desire a more capable aircraft that is compatible with a CATOBAR configuration. It can be any a/c like Rafale, ET, N-fgfa, etc.
IAC-2 will be inducted around 2025.