Q1 GDP growth surprises at 5.5%: Is the worst over for Indian economy?
NEW DELHI: Economic growth languished near its slowest in three years in the quarter that ended in June but was slightly better than expected, signalling the worst may be over for Asia's third largest economy and dashing investor hopes of an early rate cut.
Quarterly GDP grew 5.5 per cent, driven by a rebound in construction and financial services, provisional government data showed on Friday, just above the 5.3 per cent posted in the three months ended in March and slightly higher than economists had forecast in a Reuters poll.
The number offered little respite for Prime Minister Manmohan Singh as he struggles to escape a series of political scandals that have paralysed his economic agenda. Economists do not foresee a rapid return to boom times in India.
But while failing to signal a decisive rebound, the read-out was viewed by analysts as not weak enough to prod the central bank into make a near-term cut in interest rates, which have been on hold since April as it tries to force the government to push through reforms that would help tame inflation.
"We expect a gradual recovery in growth during the current fiscal year ending in March 2013, but this recovery is contingent on structural reforms," said Leif Eskesen, chief economist for India and ASEAN at HSBC in Singapore. "It will also depend on the stabilisation of the global economy."
Weak demand in the West has hit Indian exports, but the heaviest toll on the economy is from government overspending and a lack of reforms, a point made by both the central bank and ratings agencies Fitch and Standard & Poor's, who threatened to downgrade India's sovereign ratings to junk.
NO RATES MOVE, YET
Many G20 central banks have been moving to support growth, but policy interest rates have come down just once in more than two years and are among the highest of big economies.
Some investors had been optimistic that a weak growth number would persuade the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to cut borrowing costs at its September 17 review, but the slight uptick will bolster the bank's argument that stubborn inflation is its main concern.
"The RBI still maintains a hawkish bias and rate cuts still seem some way off," said Jonathan Cavenagh, a currency strategist at Westpac Bank in Singapore, who said data from across Asia suggested growth would remain subdued in the September quarter.
RBI Governor Duvvuri Subbarao this week said inflation remained too high and needed to fall further or risk more damage to the economy.
Benchmark 10-year bond yield rose 3 basis points to 8.23 per cent after the GDP data, while one- and five-year overnight index swap rates also rose, reflecting disappointment over hopes for rate cuts in September.
Manmohan Singh's economic advisory panel this month cut its forecast to 6.7 per cent for economic growth in the year to next March (2012/13), down from a previous forecast of 7.5-8 per cent. The RBI predicts growth of 6.5 per cent in the same period.
Manmohan Singh's economic advisor C. Rangarajan said on Friday he saw growth being led by agriculture and basic industries such as coal and steel in the next few months.
"The monsoon has been very normal during the month of August and therefore the rural demand may pick up and may not decline as one has expected earlier," he said.
While the growth figure is strong by global standards, it is considered almost recessionary in India, which targets 9 per cent expansion to provide jobs for a bulging young population.
Worried about social unrest if aspirations are not met, Manmohan Singh recently called high growth a matter of national security.
But for all the gloom in recent months, plenty of companies and investors continue to bet on India's longer-term prospects, especially in sectors driven by domestic demand.
Net foreign institutional investment in Indian stocks and bonds has quadrupled this year to $16.7 billion, including nearly $4 billion since the start of July.
The Sensex is up 14 per cent this year, making it one of the best performing major stock markets in Asia.
BUDGET CUTS?
Newly reappointed Finance Minister P. Chidambaram has vowed to revive an economy he steered through the 2008 credit crunch with tax cuts. The buzz on his return to the ministry helped a market rally, further fuelled by a flurry of minor policy moves.
Q1 GDP growth surprises at 5.5%: Is the worst over for Indian economy? - The Economic Times
August services PMIs: India shows fastest growth in 6 months, China at one-year low
BANGALORE: India's private sector services business expanded at the fastest pace in six months in August, driven by the strongest growth in new business since February and increasing optimism about the future, a survey showed on Wednesday. Meanwhile, China's services sector grew at its slowest pace in a year in August, even though firms are hiring more workers at higher wages.
The HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index for services business in India, based on a survey of about 400 private-sector companies, rose to 55.0 in August from 54.2 in July, marking nearly a year of uninterrupted monthly growth.
Services, including government services like railway transport, make up nearly 60 percent of India's economic output.
Stronger performance there could further dash already receding expectations for more interest rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of India, which is now widely expected to leave them on hold this month.
The new business sub-index rose to a six-month high of 55.9 in August after posting 55.7 in July while optimism for future business also bounced, registering its biggest monthly jump since April. Any number above 50 represents growth.
The Indian economy grew by 5.5 percent in the quarter to June on a year earlier, according to government data last week, slightly better than expected and above the previous quarter's nine-year low of 5.3 percent.
That suggested the worst of a growth slowdown that began in the quarter to June last year may be over.
But much depends on conditions overseas. The euro zone debt crisis, which appears to have driven it back into recession, along with weak growth in the United States, has dampened much of the export market for India.
Indian software firms, the face of the multi-billion dollar outsourcing industry, have suffered the most from wilting demand in Europe and the U.S. for new projects, leading to poor corporate results last year.
However, some firms are expecting some support to come from the many central banks around the world poised for more monetary easing.
Tata Consultancy Services, India's number one software exporter, announced in July that it expects this fiscal year to beat the industry export revenue growth forecast of 11-14 percent set by trade body NASSCOM.
In an indication of expectations for better times, Indian services companies added jobs at the fastest pace in over a year during August.
The survey also showed prices rose at a much slower pace in August. Input prices rose at their meekest pace since December 2009 while prices charged by firms increased at the slowest pace in over a year.
But persistent high inflation overall in India is not likely to ease any time soon, said Leif Eskesen, an economist at HSBC, citing wages in particular.
"With inflation risks still lingering, partly on the back of deficient monsoons, and policy inaction from Delhi persisting, the Reserve Bank of India has little room and appetite for rate cuts," Eskesen said in a statement.
China PMI falls
The HSBC services sector Purchasing Managers' Index for China fell to 52.0 in August from 53.1 in July, but remained above the 50-point line that delineates expansion from contraction.
A new business sub-index expanded at its slowest rate since August 2011, weighing on the headline figure.
An employment sub-index rose to 52.7, its highest since November, while input prices, which primarily reflect labour costs, were at their highest since May.
Services account for about 43 percent of China's gross domestic product.
The survey follows two polls of China's factory activity which painted a far gloomier picture, signalling the pace of growth in the world's second-largest economy will weaken well into the third quarter and possibly beyond.
The HSBC manufacturing PMI fell to 47.6 in August, its lowest level since March 2009, while an official PMI hit a nine-month low of 49.2 in August, contracting for the first time since November.
August services PMIs: India shows fastest growth in 6 months, China at one-year low - The Economic Times
India growing despite hurdles, probably faster than China: Adrian Mowat, JP Morgan
NEW DELHI: According to Adrian Mowat of JP Morgan, the Indian economy is probably growing faster than China at this point of time. In an interview with ET Now, Mowat said that India is showing better earnings trend versus the Chinese economy. This trend from an equity markets perspective is good for those investing in India.
"India is growing despite its government," Mowat said. Crediting the private sector for growing despite many structural problems, Mowat said that this growth has made the industrial base of India stronger.
He is also of the opinion that a fall in commodity prices will be positive for India Inc. The fall will not only reduce raw material costs but it will also help reduce the current account deficit (CAD), he opined. "A wide current account deficit will increase the risk of investing in India," he added.
Asked about the relative underperformance of the Chinese market compared to India, Mowat said that nearly 75% of China's market is state-owned. "As a minority stakeholder in the market, my interest may not be the same as that of the state," Mowat said.
However, a Reuters poll of 38 economists produced a median forecast of 5.3 per cent year-on-year GDP growth for the April-June quarter, unchanged from January-March, which was the slowest growth rate since the same quarter in 2003.
Forecasts ranged from 4.8 per cent to 6 per cent in the poll, ahead of the data due for release at 0530 GMT on Friday.
While strong by global standards, such rates are considered almost recessionary in India, which targets 9 per cent to provide jobs for a bulging young population.
India growing despite hurdles, probably faster than China: Adrian Mowat, JP Morgan - The Economic Times
India Inc unhappy at 5.5% GDP growth; asks government to revive economy
India Inc said opportunities for revival of the economy would soon "peter out" if the government does not take immediate policy action.
India Inc said opportunities for revival of the economy would soon "peter out" if the government does not take immediate policy action.
NEW DELHI: Unhappy with 5.5. per cent GDP growth in April-June quarter, industry chambers today said opportunities for revival of the economy would soon "peter out" if the government does not take immediate policy action.
Expressing serious concern over the continuous slowdown in the GDP, which was the slowest pace of Q1 growth in a decade, industry body CII said the numbers leave no doubt about the "criticality" of the situation.
"CII strongly feels that opportunities for revival of economic growth would soon peter out if the economy dives into a downward growth spiral due to steep decline in growth of gross capital formation," chamber's Director General Chandrajit Banerjee said in statement.
Poor growth mainly in manufacturing, mining and agriculture pulled the first quarter GDP growth down from 8 per cent a year ago.
We once again appeal for a coordinated monetary and fiscal intervention to address this deteriorating situation, Banerjee said.
Industry body Assocham said the disaggregated figures clearly show the weaknesses in the economy and immediate corrective steps are required.
"The manufacturing sector has obviously been worst hit as the sector has become virtually stagnant at 0.2 per cent in Q1 of 2012-13 against 7.3 per cent growth in the corresponding period last year", Assocham President Rajkumar N Dhoot said.
Dhoot said given the global slowdown and slackening in exports demand, domestic manufacturing needs some stimulus by deeper cuts in interest rates.
"With the Finance Minister announcing intent on fiscal consolidation, this is an opportune time to cut repo rates," CII added.
Industry body FICCI said the growth slowdown reflects a sharp decline in investment and the government should take measures to control the fiscal deficit and lay basis for boosting investment demand.
"... what is worrisome is expectations of subdued global growth, uncertainty on Eurozone and slowdown in capital formation in India... I would like to emphasise that many needed economic decisions can be taken on administrative basis without new legislation," FICCI President R V Kanoria.
Consultancy firm Dun and Bradstreet expects the July-September (second quarter) GDP to remain subdued at below 6 per cent on inflationary pressures, unsatisfactory monsoon and policy stagnation.
"Nonetheless, we expect growth to witness some revival during the second half of the current fiscal with abatement of inflationary pressures and further easing of the monetary policy," said Dun and Bradstreet economist Arun Singh.
India Inc unhappy at 5.5% GDP growth; asks government to revive economy - The Economic Times
Land bill in current form to affect industrialisation: India Inc
Land bill in current form to affect industrialisation: India Inc - The Economic Times