Indian Economy 2019: Make or Break (CSIS)

[Nilgiri]

Mr. Joydeep Mukherji especially has some salient points regarding projection yet unaccounted for reality.

@Joe Shearer @Vibrio @jbgt90 @Sam. @lemurian @GeraltofRivia @anant_s @kmc_chacko @patentneer @Levina @nair @randomradio @Skull and Bones

 

[KediKesenFare3]

Foreign trade of India

What has changed after 2012? Plus, do you have the numbers for 2018 already?

 

[Nilgiri]

Foreign trade of India

What has changed after 2012? Plus, do you have the numbers for 2018 already?

This is just merchandise trade, please add service trade to it too:

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BX.GSR.GNFS.CD?locations=IN

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BM.GSR.GNFS.CD?locations=IN

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BN.GSR.GNFS.CD?locations=IN

2018 figures will be out soon. Foreign trade only means so much to Indian economy, its not a be-all end-all thing.

As for what has changed after 2012, why not watch the video? They go into things like IBC, GST and other reforms.

Stuff like this that helps provide to Turkish demand on certain manufactured goods, that no other in the subcontinent does for Turkey (despite all the talk):

 

[Śakra]

Foreign trade of India

What has changed after 2012? Plus, do you have the numbers for 2018 already?

We export refined petrol products and import crude. So when the price went down both exports and imports shot down.

 

[Sam.]

Mr. Joydeep Mukherji especially has some salient points regarding projection yet unaccounted for reality.

@Joe Shearer @Vibrio @jbgt90 @Sam. @lemurian @GeraltofRivia @anant_s @kmc_chacko @patentneer @Levina @nair @randomradio @Skull and Bones

I was watching Live and fell asleep listening to that girl. She was so off topic that made me sleep but will watch the guy you mentioned today and come back with keynotes.

 

[Hellfire]

Mr. Joydeep Mukherji especially has some salient points regarding projection yet unaccounted for reality.

@Joe Shearer @Vibrio @jbgt90 @Sam. @lemurian @GeraltofRivia @anant_s @kmc_chacko @patentneer @Levina @nair @randomradio @Skull and Bones

The points elucidated by Mr Mukherji are quite informative. Policy continuum and the voting will indeed decide where we head - if the present dispensation if voted in with a simple majority, we will see a massive movement on the reforms front, if not, we can expect not only a slowdown, but also a reversal of few economic decisions that have reversed the trend of exceeding the targeted fiscal deficit.

 

[randomradio]

Foreign trade of India

What has changed after 2012? Plus, do you have the numbers for 2018 already?

That's due to high oil prices. We import crude and export refined petroleum. Hence the rise in both imports and exports.

Today half the deficit is because of trade with China.

 

[Han Patriot]

The real threat for India is unemployment.

https://www.fairobserver.com/region...job-crisis-narendra-modi-election-2019-10621/

 

[faithfulguy]

The real threat for India is unemployment.

https://www.fairobserver.com/region...job-crisis-narendra-modi-election-2019-10621/

Since India is a factor driven agrarian economy. That also rely upon remittance. Weather, commodity and currency are the three most important factors that determine the Indian economic growth.

 

[randomradio]

The real threat for India is unemployment.

https://www.fairobserver.com/region...job-crisis-narendra-modi-election-2019-10621/

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/nea...n-10-months-central-statistics-office-1906099
Nearly 1.2 crore jobs were created in the country in the 10-month period till June this year, as per a Central Statistics Office or CSO report.

1.2 crore = 12 million.

You can't fudge these figures since it's now all connected to a person's biometrics through Aadhaar. So 1 account = 1 person.

Also, financing for entrepreneurs:
https://www.thehindubusinessline.co...to-12-cr-beneficiaries-pm/article24020964.ece
Prime Minister Narendra Modi today said that loans worth ₹6 lakh crore have been given to 12 crore beneficiaries under the Mudra scheme as he accused the previous governments of tokenism and not enough for small businesses.

This includes first-timers:
“Out of the 12 crore beneficiaries, 28 per cent or 3.25 crore are first-time entrepreneurs,” he said in his interaction with beneficiaries of this scheme.

12Cr = 120 million. 3.25Cr = 32.5 million.

Minorities are also taken care of:
He also said 74 per cent, or 9 crore, borrowers are women and 55 per cent belong to the SC/ST and OBC category. "Mudra Yojana is not just a self employment scheme but it acts as job multiplier as it has created jobs as several new ventures got started," he said.

9Cr = 90 million.

This scheme been successful because the NPAs in this program are significantly low.
https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...spike-in-mudra-loans/articleshow/67511045.cms
Rs 110,000,000,000 are NPA out of the disbursed Rs 2,460,000,000,000 in 2017-18 to 48.1 million people, which is peanuts for such a high risk investment.

Note that this is up and above what's been mentioned in the first link, which is solely for employment for formal jobs where the employer has to link an employee with a govt created fund and make payments every month.

So 12 million employed in 10 months of 2017-18. Obviously doesn't include 2 more months, but let's just approximate that to 14 million for a year. And business loans extended to 48.1 million people the same year. Let's assume 25% are first-timers, which makes it 12 million people, mostly women.

So 14+12 = 26 million people have been given a means of living in the year 2017-2018. 14 million with formal employment. 12 million in the informal sector, as entrepreneurs.

Note that both these do not count the entire jobs market because it's difficult to include half the population into these figures considering they are into agriculture and most do not report to the govt. Nor do these cover daily wage earners, servants etc. These figures don't cover govt supplied part-time work that happens in villages either. So it's obviously way more than 26 million a year.

Our jobs situation is fine. Most articles pointing out a "jobs creation problem" have vested interests and no real interest in discovering the truth.

@Nilgiri @Vibrio Anything to add?

 

[Han Patriot]

Since India is a factor driven agrarian economy. That also rely upon remittance. Weather, commodity and currency are the three most important factors that determine the Indian economic growth.

Remittance and 'foreign investment' are two very important sources of dollars to balance their deficit. As for their domestic economy, oil prices and the monsoon are the two most important factors. They literally have to pray to the Gods. In China, weather and oil prices don't afffect us much. Low oil prices didn't help us much at all, our government had to cap the prices at a certain level to maintain stability. In India it can mean whether you have dinner or lunch.

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/nea...n-10-months-central-statistics-office-1906099
Nearly 1.2 crore jobs were created in the country in the 10-month period till June this year, as per a Central Statistics Office or CSO report.

1.2 crore = 12 million.

You can't fudge these figures since it's now all connected to a person's biometrics through Aadhaar. So 1 account = 1 person.

Also, financing for entrepreneurs:
https://www.thehindubusinessline.co...to-12-cr-beneficiaries-pm/article24020964.ece
Prime Minister Narendra Modi today said that loans worth ₹6 lakh crore have been given to 12 crore beneficiaries under the Mudra scheme as he accused the previous governments of tokenism and not enough for small businesses.

This includes first-timers:
“Out of the 12 crore beneficiaries, 28 per cent or 3.25 crore are first-time entrepreneurs,” he said in his interaction with beneficiaries of this scheme.

12Cr = 120 million. 3.25Cr = 32.5 million.

Minorities are also taken care of:
He also said 74 per cent, or 9 crore, borrowers are women and 55 per cent belong to the SC/ST and OBC category. "Mudra Yojana is not just a self employment scheme but it acts as job multiplier as it has created jobs as several new ventures got started," he said.

9Cr = 90 million.

This scheme been successful because the NPAs in this program are significantly low.
https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...spike-in-mudra-loans/articleshow/67511045.cms
Rs 110,000,000,000 are NPA out of the disbursed Rs 2,460,000,000,000 in 2017-18 to 48.1 million people, which is peanuts for such a high risk investment.

Note that this is up and above what's been mentioned in the first link, which is solely for employment for formal jobs where the employer has to link an employee with a govt created fund and make payments every month.

So 12 million employed in 10 months of 2017-18. Obviously doesn't include 2 more months, but let's just approximate that to 14 million for a year. And business loans extended to 48.1 million people the same year. Let's assume 25% are first-timers, which makes it 12 million people, mostly women.

So 14+12 = 26 million people have been given a means of living in the year 2017-2018. 14 million with formal employment. 12 million in the informal sector, as entrepreneurs.

Note that both these do not count the entire jobs market because it's difficult to include half the population into these figures considering they are into agriculture and most do not report to the govt. Nor do these cover daily wage earners, servants etc. These figures don't cover govt supplied part-time work that happens in villages either. So it's obviously way more than 26 million a year.

Our jobs situation is fine. Most articles pointing out a "jobs creation problem" have vested interests and no real interest in discovering the truth.

@Nilgiri @Vibrio Anything to add?

Sorry if it offended you but I really want to know the truth in India. My Indian friend told me Modi destroyed alot of small businesses during the demonetization period and most don't recover until today. He says most Indians work in the informal sector and youth unemployment is really really serious now. That's the reason there is a backlash during the recent elections. Hindu nationalism can only work when people are fed it seems.

Unemployed In India Have More Than Doubled In A Little Over A Year: Report
https://www.huffingtonpost.in/2018/...tober-highest-in-two-years-report_a_23583282/

By hiding unemployment data, the government will not help the economy — or itself
https://www.telegraphindia.com/opin...ll-not-help-the-economy-or-itself/cid/1681935

https://www.huffingtonpost.in/entry...cmies-mahesh-vyas_in_5c41625ee4b027c3bbbffb9b
Demonetisation, GST Together Led To Steady Fall In Jobs: CMIE's Mahesh Vyas

 

[randomradio]

Sorry if it offended you but I really want to know the truth in India. My Indian friend told me Modi destroyed alot of small businesses during the demonetization period and most don't recover until today. He says most Indians work in the informal sector and youth unemployment is really really serious now.

Every time reforms are done businesses get affected. But it had nothing to do with Modi or demo. What destroyed businesses is the drying up of loans because the RBI tightened lending. RBI did that because the economy was overleveraged from the days of the financial crisis. Too much NPAs. Sickly companies were the first to die.

As for demo itself, businesses that followed rules, paid taxes etc survived. Businesses that used black money were totalled, which were a lot. Also there was a massive formalisation of the economy after demo. So businesses that wanted to survive formalised, businesses that were illegal perished.

That's the reason there is a backlash during the recent elections. Hindu nationalism can only work when people are fed it seems.

That's called anti-incumbency vote. The 3 states where BJP lost elections are some of the poorest states in India. But BJP ruled those states for 10-15 years. People simply vote the other way to express their displeasure. So even Congress ruled states were routed during the same elections. India's main growth story comes from other developed states.

Unemployed In India Have More Than Doubled In A Little Over A Year: Report

https://www.huffingtonpost.in/2018/...tober-highest-in-two-years-report_a_23583282/

By hiding unemployment data, the government will not help the economy — or itself
https://www.telegraphindia.com/opin...ll-not-help-the-economy-or-itself/cid/1681935

Not necessarily good quality data.

https://www.indiatoday.in/education...ng-concern-indian-students-1384978-2018-11-09
According to the International Labour Organisation (ILO), India will again see its unemployment rate at 3.5 per cent in 2018 and 2019, the same which was seen in 2017 and 2016.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com...-jobs-vulnerable-ilo/articleshow/65229161.cms

 

[Jlaw]

The real threat for India is unemployment.

https://www.fairobserver.com/region...job-crisis-narendra-modi-election-2019-10621/

Population dividend but no jobs equal population time bomb. The recent 150 million Indians on strike is foreshadowing of things to come for India.

https://socialistproject.ca/2019/01/india-general-strike-2019/

 

[Han Patriot]

Every time reforms are done businesses get affected. But it had nothing to do with Modi or demo. What destroyed businesses is the drying up of loans because the RBI tightened lending. RBI did that because the economy was overleveraged from the days of the financial crisis. Too much NPAs. Sickly companies were the first to die.

As for demo itself, businesses that followed rules, paid taxes etc survived. Businesses that used black money were totalled, which were a lot. Also there was a massive formalisation of the economy after demo. So businesses that wanted to survive formalised, businesses that were illegal perished.



That's called anti-incumbency vote. The 3 states where BJP lost elections are some of the poorest states in India. But BJP ruled those states for 10-15 years. People simply vote the other way to express their displeasure. So even Congress ruled states were routed during the same elections. India's main growth story comes from other developed states.



Not necessarily good quality data.

https://www.indiatoday.in/education...ng-concern-indian-students-1384978-2018-11-09
According to the International Labour Organisation (ILO), India will again see its unemployment rate at 3.5 per cent in 2018 and 2019, the same which was seen in 2017 and 2016.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com...-jobs-vulnerable-ilo/articleshow/65229161.cms

After 2 years of not checking on demonetization I found this, I was the first to ask why print a bigger denomination if you want to stop black money.. You guys were scolding me inside out for asking this.
India stops printing Rs 2,000 note, two years after its shock launch
https://theprint.in/economy/india-s...note-two-years-after-its-shock-launch/172578/

https://www.fortuneindia.com/macro/demonetisation-a-failed-initiative/102347

With 99.3% of the demonetised currency back in circulation, the government’s major economic policy initiative of November 2016 seems to have achieved none of the stated objectives.

This was a bigger f up than I imagined.

Population dividend but no jobs equal population time bomb. The recent 150 million Indians on strike is foreshadowing of things to come for India.

https://socialistproject.ca/2019/01/india-general-strike-2019/

Dude, I am really interested what happened after demonetization. I mean in China we change the currency to new denomination slowly to avoid economic trouble and disruption. We had already eliminated big denominations years ago and these geniuses actually printed a bigger one to 'fight corruption'. So after going through all the unemployment, pain and suicides, it was just for nothing? These geniuses really can f up on a gargantuan scale.

Basically in one stroke, he legalized all the black money and made it white. This is epic f up man. I think he did it on purpose.

 

[Jlaw]

Basically in one stroke, he legalized all the black money and made it white. This is epic f up man. I think he did it on purpos

The western media and some western paid Indians were pro demonetization. All the Indians fell for another weak old scheme. Chinese people would never fall for this. They know praises by west is bad. Indians want approval so bad they even sacrifice their economy for a thumbs up Pat on the head by white daddy.