Indian Brahmos missle crashes in Mian Channo

[PanzerKiel]

@PanzerKiel bro you are very quiet on a thread like this one...

Have to be, dear. Its better not to say something which is still ongoing.

 

[GumNaam]

What's next? They did their action. Where is our response? They have checked our ADS through one missile. That one missile, travelled 124km inside Pakistan. It begs an obvious question. Do we have the capability to destroy this missile? If yes, great. If no, terrible. What India has achieved?
1) PAF reaction time
2) ADS reaction time
3) Chances of Pakistani response?

NDTV described Indian actions before balakot in which senior Indian members(anonymous) acknowledged that submarine intrusion was intentional and was a way to divert attention. Same thing happened again. Submarine intrusion and missile strike. They are making progress and I am telling you clearly that they have some kind of plan to capture major Pakistani cities through ground invasion. World doesn't react to their missile attack. It clearly means that United states is also involved and a partner of India in this crime.

I believe India is preparing for something big. Something surprising. India has seen our reaction which is no reaction. This will only help India further. Ukraine Russia war has been monitored by Indians closely. India can definitely fight against China if west provides assistance but with Pakistan as the second front, it will be a big problem. India is trying to end this war with us once and for all so that they can handle China without any pressure from Pakistan.

This missile strike is a wake up call. Let's see what Rajnath singh will say tomorrow. A strong reaction can save Pakistan. Pakistan should adopt aggressive policy of attacking first.20 years ago, we adopted same policy and nothing happened inside Pakistan, not even a bomb blast. Defensive policies can ruin countries.

just ask yourself one simple question, would india risk looking like. total fool by providing Pakistan an opportunity to say that they DID shoot it down? Let's just for a minute take what the ISPR said at face value that they did not shoot it down and rewind back to march 9th when the missile was about to be launched. what would be going through the minds of the indian planners when picking a target? do you honestly think that would as so stupid to pick a uninhabited region of mian chunno to just crash their missile? don't you think someone in their higher command or the government would've said that "saar ji, if vee crash our mijjile in mian chunnu then vaat if the Pakistanis claim that they shot it down, vee vud look like total chootias beecaj vee are chootias and the varld vud know vee are chootias"?! bear in mind, we've rewound to march 9th so they have no idea how the Pakistanis would react. they were obviously convinced that they would be tracked let alone intercepted otherwise they would've never risked a nuclear strike in spite of having s400s, a risk just not worth taking given that Pakistan could've AT LEAST launched against their forward airbases using NASRs missiles which would reach their targets before the s400s could do anything...they would not have taken this risk unless they were sure that brahmos could not be detected, they have even touted that the brahmos-ng (which this probably was since it was air launched) has a much smaller rcs so it is harder to detect let alone track.

Pakistan has intercepted it. the main target was the Rafique Airbase...I would urge you not to take what the ISPR said at face value. Pakistan isn't known for advertising its military capabilities; quite the opposite in fact. Pakistan is known for hiding its capabilities.

Have to be, dear. Its better not to say something which is still ongoing.

yaar kuch tau das do...its like, I'm the only one who is saying that we intercepted it, everyone else seems to be stuck in some sort of inferiority complex. maybe I shouldn't talk...

 

[PanzerKiel]

just ask yourself one simple question, would india risk looking like. total fool by providing Pakistan an opportunity to say that they DID shoot it down? Let's just for a minute take what the ISPR said at face value that they did not shoot it down and rewind back to march 9th when the missile was about to be launched. what would be going through the minds of the indian planners when picking a target? do you honestly think that would as so stupid to pick a uninhabited region of mian chunno to just crash their missile? don't you think someone in their higher command or the government would've said that "saar ji, if vee crash our mijjile in mian chunnu then vaat if the Pakistanis claim that they shot it down, vee vud look like total chootias beecaj vee are chootias and the varld vud know vee are chootias"?! bear in mind, we've rewound to march 9th so they have no idea how the Pakistanis would react. they were obviously convinced that they would be tracked let alone intercepted otherwise they would've never risked a nuclear strike in spite of having s400s, a risk just not worth taking given that Pakistan could've AT LEAST launched against their forward airbases using NASRs missiles which would reach their targets before the s400s could do anything...they would not have taken this risk unless they were sure that brahmos could not be detected, they have even touted that the brahmos-ng (which this probably was since it was air launched) has a much smaller rcs so it is harder to detect let alone track.

....Targets are normally pre-fed in such missiles. If Rafiqi was already fed as a target, there was no reason for the missile to hit the ground short of it (unless it was shot down, or something else was done). If the location (where the missile really hit), was fed into the missile, then it means indian have already fed wrong coordinates in this missile during peacetime (and possibly other missiles as well).

So either Pak AD did track it and brought it down before it could reach its target, or Pak AD wasnt able to track it, but wrongly fed coordinates proved its untimely death.

How else can you explain a battle-ready missile falling short of its target.

Just an opinion.

 

[kursed]

....Targets are normally pre-fed in such missiles. If Rafiqi was already fed as a target, there was no reason for the missile to hit the ground short of it (unless it was shot down, or something else was done). If the location (where the missile really hit), was fed into the missile, then it means indian have already fed wrong coordinates in this missile during peacetime (and possibly other missiles as well).

So either Pak AD did track it and brought it down before it could reach its target, or Pak AD wasnt able to track it, but wrongly fed coordinates proved its untimely death.

How else can you explain a battle-ready missile falling short of its target.

Just an opinion.

I’d explain this a bit. To my understanding if this was an ORI, that means the mission selected included obscure coordinates (Mian Channu lies in exact direction of Rafiqui, so mission would validate parameters). But which part of Rafiqui is to be targeted (it’s a big base)? In order to keep this exact info from targeting technician staff, so even if they’re compromised by other side’s Intel, they don’t end up giving the exact / right coordinates of pre selected targets.

In this instance, the simulated hit on this target in Mian Channu would have proven kinematic profile of the launch, exact damage and completed the test, while not leaking exact target data.

The missile was not self destructed by the Indians. Which is more than peculiar an issue. A few years ago, a Pakistani mirage jet was targeted during a simulated ground bombing run by our own AD due to a technical fault. But the AD operator self destructed the SAM within seconds.

In this instance, assuming this was an ORI, how did Indian C2 fail to interject and initiate self destruct in a 2 min plus within Indian air space flight profile? This basically means ALCM Brahmos once let loose, goes on a one way trip and has no C2 protocols installed.

If you add it to the fact, that as per an Indian admiral, India maintains missiles under tactical control - and only warheads are kept under C2 - it opens the door to a whole lot of security lapses that are just waiting to happen.

 

[PanzerKiel]

I’d explain this a bit. To my understanding if this was an ORI, that means the mission selected included obscure coordinates (Mian Channu lies in exact direction of Rafiqui, so mission would validate parameters). But which part of Rafiqui is to be targeted (it’s a big base)? In order to keep this exact info from targeting technician staff, so even if they’re compromised by other side’s Intel, they don’t end up giving the exact / right coordinates of pre selected targets.

In this instance, the simulated hit on this target in Mian Channu would have proven kinematic profile of the launch, exact damage and completed the test, while not leaking exact target data.

Yours is the only logical explanation. However, problem is, Rafiqi isnt the only target in this area. There are others which are much nearer to its impact location.

 

[GumNaam]

I’d explain this a bit. To my understanding if this was an ORI, that means the mission selected included obscure coordinates (Mian Channu lies in exact direction of Rafiqui, so mission would validate parameters). But which part of Rafiqui is to be targeted (it’s a big base)? In order to keep this exact info from targeting technician staff, so even if they’re compromised by other side’s Intel, they don’t end up giving the exact / right coordinates of pre selected targets.

In this instance, the simulated hit on this target in Mian Channu would have proven kinematic profile of the launch, exact damage and completed the test, while not leaking exact target data.

unconvincing explanation. you think that if the compromised technical crew wouldn't know that that mian chunnu is near Rafique Airbase and thus alert their sources? not convinced.

....Targets are normally pre-fed in such missiles. If Rafiqi was already fed as a target, there was no reason for the missile to hit the ground short of it (unless it was shot down, or something else was done). If the location (where the missile really hit), was fed into the missile, then it means indian have already fed wrong coordinates in this missile during peacetime (and possibly other missiles as well).

So either Pak AD did track it and brought it down before it could reach its target, or Pak AD wasnt able to track it, but wrongly fed coordinates proved its untimely death.

How else can you explain a battle-ready missile falling short of its target.

Just an opinion.

so to summarize, you are saying that either both sides did their job correctly or neither side did their job correctly. the latter is harder to believe sir. I am convinced that it was intercepted. india would not provide Pakistan with an opportunity to say that PAF intercepted their brahmos by saying "see? We intercepted india's brahmos and the wreckage fell in a barren area in mian chunnu".

 

[kursed]

Yours is the only logical explanation. However, problem is, Rafiqi isnt the only target in this area. There are others which are much nearer to its impact location.

Okay, yes, my pov is strictly Air Force centric I’m still guessing the coordinates given weren’t really for an actual target but obscured, imitating a real target. Rafiqui from where the missile hit was basically 20 seconds away given the missile flight profile.

 

[Sayfullah]

Have to be, dear. Its better not to say something which is still ongoing.

Can we expect a Pakistani version of brahmos at least (reverse engineer Indian one and make an indigenous one)?

 

[kursed]

unconvincing explanation. you think that if the compromised technical crew wouldn't know that that mian chunnu is near Rafique Airbase and thus alert their sources? not convinced.

You haven’t understood what I wrote.

 

[GumNaam]

You haven’t understood what I wrote.

I understood it. But I'm not convinced...if Pakistan had preemptively retaliated with nukes and the indian target was just dirt in mian chunnu, that would've been a risk not worth taking. I'm sure the indian planners aren't that stupid. the target was real, it was some facility of Rafique Airbase or like PanzerKeil said, some other Military facility in the area.

 

[kursed]

I understood it. But I'm not convinced...if Pakistan had preemptively retaliated with nukes and the indian target was just dirt in mian chunnu, that would've been a risk not worth taking. I'm sure the indian planners aren't that stupid. the target was real, it was some facility of Rafique Airbase or like PanzerKeil said, some other Military facility in the area.

Sure.

 

[GumNaam]

just ask yourselves, does that REALLY look like a crater made by something traveling at speeds of over mach 3? no, it doesn't...a suzuki mehran that falls into a ditch at 50km/h makes a bigger crater than that!

it was shot down. Sleep tight friends, Pakistan's Armed Forces are awake.

 

[iLION12345_1]

Okay, yes, my pov is strictly Air Force centric I’m still guessing the coordinates given weren’t really for an actual target but obscured, imitating a real target. Rafiqui from where the missile hit was basically 20 seconds away given the missile flight profile.

There’s a lot of sensitive stuff in that area, obviously I won’t say more on that, but any one of those could have been the potential target. Still, your explanation seems very plausible.

 

[GumNaam]

There’s a lot of sensitive stuff in that area, obviously I won’t say more on that, but any one of those could have been the potential target. Still, your explanation seems very plausible.

the missing piece of the puzzle is the position of the domestic and intl flights in the vicinity throughout the duration of the incident. during war time our pre-war time, airspace is closed to all flights so Pakistan can take action without any risk of collateral damage to an airliner. since it wasn't war time, Pakistani AD had to act carefully lest another iranian like incident happens where they inadvertently shot down a ukrainian airliner thinking it was an enemy aircraft. needless to say, our AD waited until there was no flight in the immediate vicinity. That's why knowing the position of any flights in the area during the time of the interception and/or crash is so important.

 

[GriffinsRule]

....Targets are normally pre-fed in such missiles. If Rafiqi was already fed as a target, there was no reason for the missile to hit the ground short of it (unless it was shot down, or something else was done). If the location (where the missile really hit), was fed into the missile, then it means indian have already fed wrong coordinates in this missile during peacetime (and possibly other missiles as well).

So either Pak AD did track it and brought it down before it could reach its target, or Pak AD wasnt able to track it, but wrongly fed coordinates proved its untimely death.

How else can you explain a battle-ready missile falling short of its target.

Just an opinion.

If we take the premise that target information (along with approach vectors were pre-fed), fuel/range would explain why the missile might fall short of intended target.
The launch site from a test/exercise area might not be the same as the intended launch sites during war.

However, surprised to read people promoting launching retaliations within minutes (that is if we even detected the missile until after it fell) and that too without ascertaining the facts and formulating a proper response. Maybe the Indian intent was exactly that, to make us act in a foolhardy and hot-headed manner. Imagine if we had retaliated upon the detection with a live warhead and the consequences of that?

The path being chosen by the government is prudent. It not only attempts to make India look like a pariah nation, but failing that, also opens up Pakistan's future retaliation and countermeasure/counterstrikes options if deemed fit. And Pakistan needs that strategic space imo.

Of course in my heart I was imagining that next time LOC flares up again we can send a cruise missile towards a strategic bridge in the middle of the night as well (so no civvies are killed) and in response send the Indian a verbatim copy of their letter after 2 days.

Also, events like this have two sides ... we might think that Indians "gained" knowledge of our AD tracking/targeting capabilities (not sure how that is possible) but even if true, we gained knowledge of possible employment and missiles paths/course and will only help better our own defenses.