t-birds
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A final turn away from the FGFA program and from treating Russia as a preeminent tactical aircraft supplier may have been accelerated by the cozying up in relations between the U.S. and India.
The level of stealthiness that can be applied to India's next procurement matters substantially more now than it did nearly a decade ago. Pakistan had been India's primary national security focus, but in recent years the rise of China's military might and their extra-territorial aims have shifted New Delhi's defensive priorities.
China's air force in particular has become massively more potent since the FGFA initiative began, with their own impressive stealth fighter—the J-20—now officially operational, not to mention a Chinese medium stealth fighter is also likely on the way. This is on top of upgraded models of existing designs, such as the AESA radar carrying J-10B, and procurement of multiple Flanker derivatives including Russia's own somersaulting Su-35. Simply put, India sees that it needs a stealthily fighter to maintain some sort of parity with its potential foe, and for use as a force multiplier to enable its less capable fighter jets via creative tactics.
The Trump Administration could look to consummate its new, closer strategic relationship with India by offering up the Joint Strike Fighter for purchase. Having India join the JSF community could also offer certain synergies for other F-35 operators located in the eastern hemisphere, both on a strategic and a sustainment level.
Indian F-35s would also work to counter-balance China's military might arrayed along the increasingly tense Indian-Chinese border. It could also mean that the F-35 could also become a competitor for the Indian Navy's next fighter initiative, with the B model likely being offered for the ski jump carriers and the C model being an option for the future catapult equipped ships.
India probably wouldn't receive a large degree of technology transfer under such a deal as export controls on the F-35 are notoriously tight even for NATO operators. But it is likely that some industrial offsets could be offered, including the possibility of depot work and some component construction being done in-country.
It is unlikely that such a deal would be offered until after the single engine jet fighter competition is decided, but India could see the writing on the wall, and cancel the FGFA in hopes of joining the Joint Strike Fighter family in the near future.
Above all else, the export of the F-35 to India... a jet that requires unique, costly, and extensive infrastructure to sustain would be very bad news for Russia's tactical jet industry. But given the flourishing relationship between the US and India, and the growing threat posed by China in the region, it may just be a matter of time till F-35s fly with Indian Air Force roundels of their wings.
