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India is launching the production of its new nuclear-capable ballistic missile with a range of 4,000 kilometres. Experts have been concerned by assuming that the move actually amounts to a new round of the regional arms race. If the worst comes to the worst, things may result in a local nuclear conflict.
The ballistic missile in question is Agni-IV, and now that it has been successfully tested three times, the Indian military is prepared to pass it into service. But two years ago, India launched its intercontinental missile Agni-V, with an effective range of 5,000 kilometres. Some experts feel that this is an excessive range for strategic missiles, if these are meant to be used in the standoff with Pakistan. Agni-V, as well as Agni-IV can well hit targets in China. This is what an expert with the Centre for International Security of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Peter Topychkanov, says about it in a comment.
"India is pursuing several goals by developing its nuclear forces. The first one is to counter nuclear threats, such as the neighbouring Pakistan and China. The threats in question have prompted India to create its own nuclear triad. The air component of India's triad is currently the weakest. So Delhi lays emphasis on ground-based missiles, and eventually, on sea-based nuclear forces".
A classical nuclear triad comprises land, sea and air-based weapon systems, with only Russia and the United States currently boasting this kind of triad. Even if any two components of the triad are destroyed, the third one is still capable of delivering a retaliatory strike. Aside from strategic missiles, India has other airborne vehicles to deliver nuclear charges to targets (such as the Mirage-2000 multipurpose jet fighters). India is also due to commission its own first nuclear submarine shortly, a sub that can be armed with ballistic missiles.
If seen from the outside, India is clearly aspiring to regional domination and is engaged in arms race escalation, although the Indians will, of course, beg to differ. This is what a military expert Victor Baranets has to say in a comment.
"India has long been trying to take its rightful place in Asia and the Pacific. The country has a number of territorial problems. There are also a number of strategic enemies, above all China. India, besides, has the vast expanse of the ocean where it wants to secure its fully-fledged presence. Nor should one forget about the factor of Pakistan".
Some experts feel that the current scale of the regional arms race should leave both the potential allies and potential enemies unperturbed by a regional nation test-firing its nuclear missiles. But the arms race is one of the worst destabilizing geopolitical factors, Peter Topychkanov says and elaborates.
"Delhi, Islamabad and Beijing all deny any arms race in the region. But all three nations are involved in military-industrial competition. India, Pakistan and China continue feeling threatened by one another. There is no talk of complete parity, but a certain balance is indeed kept. These countries are not prone to aggressive behaviour, but they understand that new technologies will pose new threats. That's why they start considering the possibility of the first preemptive strike. If military-technological rivalry makes some country feel vulnerable, grave talks on regional arms control may follow".
But talks on disarmament are currently facing a doubtful future. Besides, it stands to reason to ask if the doctrine of nuclear deterrence can be projected onto South Asia at all. India and Pakistan are neighbours, and their missiles impact point time makes up 3 to 5 minutes, which is obviously not enough to make appropriate decisions. Hence mistrust between the countries is growing as their military arsenals grow. Pakistani arsenals are known to be inferior to those of India, yet Islamabad is in a position to make Indians feel unhappy, says Peter Topychkanov, and elaborates.
"Pakistan's missile programme is based on cruise missiles and tactical nuclear weapons, because no Indian antimissile system will be able to protect its territory, especially the areas in the vicinity of the Indian-Pakistani border, from strikes by cruise missiles and tactical nuclear weapons. Given that Pakistan has limited resources, it is prepared to respond asymmetrically".
But the problem is that the nuclear arms race involving India, Pakistan and China may under certain circumstances degenerate into a local nuclear conflict. But even a limited missile exchange in the densely-populated region will kill several million people in the first few seconds of the attack, and several hundred million more in the first two or three days after it. A total of 10 million to 20 million people will die every month of radioactive contamination, starvation and other factors of a global ecological and humanitarian disaster. The scale of disasters should sober the countries that dream about further boosting their military superiority at a time when the weapon systems currently at their disposal ensure the achievement of their strategic objectives.
Indian Agni-4 launch stirs fears of local nuclear war in S Asia amid arms race - News - World - The Voice of Russia: News, Breaking news, Politics, Economics, Business, Russia, International current events, Expert opinion, podcasts, Video
The ballistic missile in question is Agni-IV, and now that it has been successfully tested three times, the Indian military is prepared to pass it into service. But two years ago, India launched its intercontinental missile Agni-V, with an effective range of 5,000 kilometres. Some experts feel that this is an excessive range for strategic missiles, if these are meant to be used in the standoff with Pakistan. Agni-V, as well as Agni-IV can well hit targets in China. This is what an expert with the Centre for International Security of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Peter Topychkanov, says about it in a comment.
"India is pursuing several goals by developing its nuclear forces. The first one is to counter nuclear threats, such as the neighbouring Pakistan and China. The threats in question have prompted India to create its own nuclear triad. The air component of India's triad is currently the weakest. So Delhi lays emphasis on ground-based missiles, and eventually, on sea-based nuclear forces".
A classical nuclear triad comprises land, sea and air-based weapon systems, with only Russia and the United States currently boasting this kind of triad. Even if any two components of the triad are destroyed, the third one is still capable of delivering a retaliatory strike. Aside from strategic missiles, India has other airborne vehicles to deliver nuclear charges to targets (such as the Mirage-2000 multipurpose jet fighters). India is also due to commission its own first nuclear submarine shortly, a sub that can be armed with ballistic missiles.
If seen from the outside, India is clearly aspiring to regional domination and is engaged in arms race escalation, although the Indians will, of course, beg to differ. This is what a military expert Victor Baranets has to say in a comment.
"India has long been trying to take its rightful place in Asia and the Pacific. The country has a number of territorial problems. There are also a number of strategic enemies, above all China. India, besides, has the vast expanse of the ocean where it wants to secure its fully-fledged presence. Nor should one forget about the factor of Pakistan".
Some experts feel that the current scale of the regional arms race should leave both the potential allies and potential enemies unperturbed by a regional nation test-firing its nuclear missiles. But the arms race is one of the worst destabilizing geopolitical factors, Peter Topychkanov says and elaborates.
"Delhi, Islamabad and Beijing all deny any arms race in the region. But all three nations are involved in military-industrial competition. India, Pakistan and China continue feeling threatened by one another. There is no talk of complete parity, but a certain balance is indeed kept. These countries are not prone to aggressive behaviour, but they understand that new technologies will pose new threats. That's why they start considering the possibility of the first preemptive strike. If military-technological rivalry makes some country feel vulnerable, grave talks on regional arms control may follow".
But talks on disarmament are currently facing a doubtful future. Besides, it stands to reason to ask if the doctrine of nuclear deterrence can be projected onto South Asia at all. India and Pakistan are neighbours, and their missiles impact point time makes up 3 to 5 minutes, which is obviously not enough to make appropriate decisions. Hence mistrust between the countries is growing as their military arsenals grow. Pakistani arsenals are known to be inferior to those of India, yet Islamabad is in a position to make Indians feel unhappy, says Peter Topychkanov, and elaborates.
"Pakistan's missile programme is based on cruise missiles and tactical nuclear weapons, because no Indian antimissile system will be able to protect its territory, especially the areas in the vicinity of the Indian-Pakistani border, from strikes by cruise missiles and tactical nuclear weapons. Given that Pakistan has limited resources, it is prepared to respond asymmetrically".
But the problem is that the nuclear arms race involving India, Pakistan and China may under certain circumstances degenerate into a local nuclear conflict. But even a limited missile exchange in the densely-populated region will kill several million people in the first few seconds of the attack, and several hundred million more in the first two or three days after it. A total of 10 million to 20 million people will die every month of radioactive contamination, starvation and other factors of a global ecological and humanitarian disaster. The scale of disasters should sober the countries that dream about further boosting their military superiority at a time when the weapon systems currently at their disposal ensure the achievement of their strategic objectives.
Indian Agni-4 launch stirs fears of local nuclear war in S Asia amid arms race - News - World - The Voice of Russia: News, Breaking news, Politics, Economics, Business, Russia, International current events, Expert opinion, podcasts, Video
