Mirza Jatt
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India visit to test Obama’s diplomacy
When Barack Obama, US president, lands in Mumbai this weekend he will stay in a hotel that is a potent symbol of India’s decades-old antagonism with neighbouring Pakistan.
The seafront Taj Hotel was the highest profile target of the 2008 terror attacks on India’s business and financial centre. Its smouldering dome and flame-filled arched windows are the enduring image of an event that filled Indians with an overwhelming sense of their own vulnerability.
The burning Taj was also testament to the limits of US diplomacy in the region. Leaders of Laskhar-e-Taiba, the Pakistani militant group blamed by India and others for the strike, are still at large and shielded from justice by Islamabad, suspicious Indian cabinet members believe. Pakistan has always denied such charges, insisting that the attack on Mumbai and other terrorist outrages were perpetrated by non-state actors.
Failure to end the hostility between India and Pakistan is one of the shortcomings of US foreign policy and broader international engagement in south Asia.
Washington, a long-standing ally of Pakistan, now seeks to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with India in a new democratic axis.
But courting your friend’s enemy is never easy, and will test Mr Obama’s diplomatic skills during his three-day visit.
The US supports Pakistan financially, while supplying military hardware and intelligence to both countries. Yet it appears to have scant purchase on either’s bristling tactical posture against the other.
The withdrawal of tanks, infantry divisions and fighter jets from their shared border is crucial to peace in the region, as is the outcome of the war in Afghanistan, where tens of thousands of US troops are tied-up.
For the Taliban to be defeated or pacified, Pakistan’s army has to look west towards insurgent-ridden Afghanistan, not east towards increasingly prosperous India.
As the Pakistan army mobilised against the Taliban who overran the Swat valley last year, a long overdue shift in strategic balance looked to be in the making.
Pakistani politicians and military leaders called the Swat campaign a “watershed”. But in reality the country’s defensive balance has barely shifted. Only five Pakistani divisions redeployed from the Indian border to the Afghan border.
At Pakistan’s military headquarters in Rawalpindi, India is still Enemy No 1. General Ashfaq Kayani describes his army’s posture as “India-centric” and says this is unlikely to change until a long-running dispute between India and Pakistan over who controls the disputed territory of Kashmir is resolved. Gen Kayani’s colleagues support this view.
Kashmir, the flashpoint for three wars between India and Pakistan and also the raison d’être for their nuclear arms race, continues to hobble any political dialogue or wider regional settlement.
In spite of being near bankrupt, Pakistan is ordering up to 250 Chinese-designed JF-17s and will also receive 18 F-16s from the US by the end of the year. India, meanwhile, will soon splurge about $11bn on 126 new jet fighters in a coveted tender.
This mutual rearmament is taking place while both countries claim they crave peace. Manmohan Singh, India’s prime minister, speaks of their “shared destiny”, while Pakistan’s president, Asif Ali Zardari, bravely risked his own fragile hold on office by offering to withdraw Pakistan’s nuclear first-strike protocol.
The lesson of the Taj Hotel is that progress on these issues is badly needed. Another terror attack, either on India or the US, would almost certainly make a US withdrawal from Afghanistan more difficult, and further aggravate a religiously charged animosity that threatens to rob south Asia of its potential for another half century.
FT.com / Asia-Pacific / India - India visit to test Obama?s diplomacy
When Barack Obama, US president, lands in Mumbai this weekend he will stay in a hotel that is a potent symbol of India’s decades-old antagonism with neighbouring Pakistan.
The seafront Taj Hotel was the highest profile target of the 2008 terror attacks on India’s business and financial centre. Its smouldering dome and flame-filled arched windows are the enduring image of an event that filled Indians with an overwhelming sense of their own vulnerability.
The burning Taj was also testament to the limits of US diplomacy in the region. Leaders of Laskhar-e-Taiba, the Pakistani militant group blamed by India and others for the strike, are still at large and shielded from justice by Islamabad, suspicious Indian cabinet members believe. Pakistan has always denied such charges, insisting that the attack on Mumbai and other terrorist outrages were perpetrated by non-state actors.
Failure to end the hostility between India and Pakistan is one of the shortcomings of US foreign policy and broader international engagement in south Asia.
Washington, a long-standing ally of Pakistan, now seeks to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with India in a new democratic axis.
But courting your friend’s enemy is never easy, and will test Mr Obama’s diplomatic skills during his three-day visit.
The US supports Pakistan financially, while supplying military hardware and intelligence to both countries. Yet it appears to have scant purchase on either’s bristling tactical posture against the other.
The withdrawal of tanks, infantry divisions and fighter jets from their shared border is crucial to peace in the region, as is the outcome of the war in Afghanistan, where tens of thousands of US troops are tied-up.
For the Taliban to be defeated or pacified, Pakistan’s army has to look west towards insurgent-ridden Afghanistan, not east towards increasingly prosperous India.
As the Pakistan army mobilised against the Taliban who overran the Swat valley last year, a long overdue shift in strategic balance looked to be in the making.
Pakistani politicians and military leaders called the Swat campaign a “watershed”. But in reality the country’s defensive balance has barely shifted. Only five Pakistani divisions redeployed from the Indian border to the Afghan border.
At Pakistan’s military headquarters in Rawalpindi, India is still Enemy No 1. General Ashfaq Kayani describes his army’s posture as “India-centric” and says this is unlikely to change until a long-running dispute between India and Pakistan over who controls the disputed territory of Kashmir is resolved. Gen Kayani’s colleagues support this view.
Kashmir, the flashpoint for three wars between India and Pakistan and also the raison d’être for their nuclear arms race, continues to hobble any political dialogue or wider regional settlement.
In spite of being near bankrupt, Pakistan is ordering up to 250 Chinese-designed JF-17s and will also receive 18 F-16s from the US by the end of the year. India, meanwhile, will soon splurge about $11bn on 126 new jet fighters in a coveted tender.
This mutual rearmament is taking place while both countries claim they crave peace. Manmohan Singh, India’s prime minister, speaks of their “shared destiny”, while Pakistan’s president, Asif Ali Zardari, bravely risked his own fragile hold on office by offering to withdraw Pakistan’s nuclear first-strike protocol.
The lesson of the Taj Hotel is that progress on these issues is badly needed. Another terror attack, either on India or the US, would almost certainly make a US withdrawal from Afghanistan more difficult, and further aggravate a religiously charged animosity that threatens to rob south Asia of its potential for another half century.
FT.com / Asia-Pacific / India - India visit to test Obama?s diplomacy
