India to overtake China in 2020

[grey boy 2]

Can any Indian friend kindly explain to me how India can overcome

the below data inorder to overtake China in 2020 ?

India on various Global ranking studies India Fact Book

Global Hunger Index (GHI)

India’s score is 23.7, with a rank of 66th out of 88 countries, categorized under Alarming

The Human Development Report UNDP

India 134 out of 182 countries , categorized under Medium Human Development

Global Peace Index

India’s ranked 122 with 2.422 score

Global Corruption Index

Transparency International has downgraded India’s ranking from 72 to 85 in the list of world’s corruption-plagued countries

WEF The Global Gender Gap Report

India ranked 114 lisetd very poorly on the economic, education and health subindexes.

WEF Global Information Technology Report

India is down four places this year, at 54th

CIA world fact book on Account Balance

India listed as 182, the Current account balance of India is -37,510,000,000 (minus)

World Health Organization Statistical System

 

[Communist]

this is pakistani forum and they come here and and insult our dear land and people....

.

I agree with you. But I do not want to lose you. Your presence is part our strength. They are larger in number as you can see, everyday, a new member joins the forum just for trolling and bashing. But what else we can do? We need to be alive, so that we can give them a fight.

 

[TaimiKhan]

It is advised that no trolling from now on, post as per topic or else don't bother

 

[Geromix]

Reading through the last 4 pages one realizes the infantile mind of many members here(both Indian and Pakistan).
Silly posts one after one another and waste of bandwidth.(E.Coli,sanitation,Deepak Kapoor,Ayurveda,Ganges etc having nothing to do with this article)

The article largely comprises of a set of predictions based on many assumptions.

The writer never said will India overtake China in terms of size of economy or any other field,he only mentioned in terms of economic growth rate.
The assumption is that China's population will age and India will grow faster when its own demographic dividend kicks in.
Another reason is that China's economy will become very large and due to a high base its growth will be less.
While India's economy being much smaller will have a low base and its growth will be more.

However,I think this is unlikely to happen in the coming decade as the scope for greater Chinese growth would exist till 2020 at least.
China would most likely be ahead of India in terms of economic size,technology and military.Most strategists have this in mind for the coming 10 years and so.

**After 2020, most economic projections(like Goldman Sachs projection) do show that India will start growing faster than China for same reasons as above.**
But this is unlikely in coming decade and most projections show this only after 2020.

The rest of the article is not good and in certain areas he writes with a jingoistic mindset.(like the mention of water diversion from Brahmaputra)

He is a also a climate change skeptic and sympathetic to hydrocarbon industry which indicates his predictions regarding shale and hydrate deposits in India and their subsequent exploitation.
These predictions depend on great improvement in extraction technologies and such an improvement can only happen with great investment.
Improvement in renewable sector(solar,wind etc) will happen at the same time and both(renewable and hydrocarbon) could well compete with each other. Under such circumstances it is the solar energy industry that is likely to mature in the coming decade. In this past decade, wind energy sector greatly matured and its costs have gone down a lot,similarly the possibility exists for solar energy to mature.

I would be betting on solar energy industry where India has great potential than on hydrates.

 

[Veer]

Can any Indian friend kindly explain to me how India can overcome

Yes here is the Indian friend how can wake u up from dreams and conduct a reality check.

Does the so called statistics/ranking/poverty/hunger have stopped India from:

1.) Becoming world's 2nd fastest growing big Economy
2.) Becoming world's 12th largest economy in the world by nominal value and the fourth largest by purchasing power parity (PPP).
3.) World's 3rd largest pool of doctors and engineers
4.) World's premier Space Power
5.) 2nd largest Army in the world
6.) 4th largest Air force in the world
7.) 4th largest Navy in the world
8.) India ranks second worldwide in Agricultural production
India is the largest producer in the world of milk, cashew nuts, coconuts, tea, ginger, turmeric and black pepper. It also has the world's largest cattle population (281 million). It is the second largest producer of wheat, rice, sugar, groundnut and inland fish. It is the third largest producer of tobacco. India accounts for 10% of the world fruit production with first rank in the production of banana and sapota.

These are the some basic facts but there is going to be a sea change since, as reforms and modernization in Defense, Industries, Agriculture, Manufacturing, Health, Education and Infrastructure India.

You can see we are this BIG and capable with our least utilization of resources and capacities, so much corruption and red tape what will India be without them.

Moreover, there is wide spread corruption, poverty in China and Pakistan but can anybody says that pak military is worthless or china can not develop.

I can even explain you with economic and sociological facts but this will make the answers more long and boring. I think above facts are enough to clear your doubts for now. If you really wants to understand.

 

[lockh33d]

Yes here is the Indian friend how can wake u up from dreams and conduct a reality check.

Does the so called statistics/ranking/poverty/hunger have stopped India from:

1.) Becoming world's 2nd fastest growing big Economy
2.) Becoming world's 12th largest economy in the world by nominal value and the fourth largest by purchasing power parity (PPP).
3.) World's 3rd largest pool of doctors and engineers
4.) World's premier Space Power
5.) 2nd largest Army in the world
6.) 4th largest Air force in the world
7.) 4th largest Navy in the world
8.) India ranks second worldwide in Agricultural production
India is the largest producer in the world of milk, cashew nuts, coconuts, tea, ginger, turmeric and black pepper. It also has the world's largest cattle population (281 million). It is the second largest producer of wheat, rice, sugar, groundnut and inland fish. It is the third largest producer of tobacco. India accounts for 10% of the world fruit production with first rank in the production of banana and sapota.

These are the some basic facts but there is going to be a sea change since, as reforms and modernization in Defense, Industries, Agriculture, Manufacturing, Health, Education and Infrastructure India.

You can see we are this BIG and capable with our least utilization of resources and capacities, so much corruption and red tape what will India be without them.

Moreover, there is wide spread corruption, poverty in China and Pakistan but can anybody says that pak military is worthless or china can not develop.

I can even explain you with economic and sociological facts but this will make the answers more long and boring. I think above facts are enough to clear your doubts for now. If you really wants to understand.

The only difference you two listed are differences of time. Grey Boy mentions that China will have the edge in the present and near future, where India will get the advantage possibly in a timeline which is far down the track. The negativity of that is unpredictability. No one can really rest assured that such will eventually take place, whereas China is guaranteed all of such as we speak. Furthermore, Military might doesn't really play much part in a nation when the majority of its people are weak and starving. People come first, before material. Without people, who are to design, repair and man such marvels? Having the greatest pool of trained professionals is no biggie. The part which counts, is, how qualified are Indian's trained professions. Someone stated before that India lags behind in terms of technology. So any nation can just hire bums on the streets and label them as "professionals."

 

[skeptic9]

Let's hope the author is more learned than me, but my observation and strategic realities tells me otherwise.

I'd say the current education system in India **SUCKS** ;we may not be heading anywhere rather than a commerce hub (too bad we have only few things to trade), much less an hub of innovation. Our education system dumps creativity and talent for the 'ratta' -s. We suffer from a psychological crisis which tells us everything that needs to be known are already there and only thing one needs to do is learn/'ratta' (pretend to learn) them. Innovation is hardly in anyone's mind. This kills the innovative spirit and brings our 'vedic' minds to fore where they would load every scripture into memory without practicing it or even without understanding what it means or what it does. This is an irony that with such a huge population of youth we did pretty bad in past with science and tech. I have friends in big software companies where their designations are "programmers" but according to them the biggest events in their career is to go to a foreign country at a huge expense and install something. Install???! This is also a high paying event because they would save money by producing false bills and spending too little. And in interviews they would read Reader's Digest and pretend to have a good vocabulary by forcibly bringing in the words learned the other night. I don't have any hope from this breed.


Indians are pretty good businessmen and very hardworking, I hope we would succeed in that direction in future. Small businesses and self-employed people could take a good initiative though-- because they understand the value of labor and being productive. Guys working in bigger companies (pvt) hardly understand the concept of production-- they just "do a job".PSU guys don't do any job because they already "got the job". India should look towards small/medium size businesses. Delhi was made by family owned small/med businesses that's why it's evergreen...Bangalore by 'biggies' so it dried in the crisis. Employment is soaring in B'lore.

 

[wangrong]

May be in 30 years if one child policy remains but not in 10. Chinese can increase rate of birth when ever they want too , in Japan No one wants babies any more just too busy at work.

The reasons for Japan's economic crisis

1、rise of yen spoils party for japan exporters

2、the housing bubble

3、Technological advances will reduce job opportunities

 

[Ghazy]

In which terms India will overtake China?
It is GDP growth rate not actual GDP. Read out the article given in link to clear your minds in GDP terms India is not going to cross China even by 2050.
Article shows that between 2020-2025 growth rate of China will be 4.6% and of India will be 5.9%. But 4.6% of Chinese GDP will be way more than 5.9% of Indian GDP.
By 2050 Chinese GDP will be around $70 trillion and of India will be around $38 trillion, although 3rd largest economy.
GDP per capita of China will be $49560/head in 2050 and of India will be $20836/head India will cross China in population term.

http://www.chicagobooth.edu/alumni/clubs/pakistan/docs/next11dream-march '07-goldmansachs.pdf

 

[aimarraul]

least talk, most work.both china and india need to learn more about pragmatism

 

[jha]

such articles do not deserve so much attention.....
its better to keep doing the good work...let the work talk itself....

 

[arya-hind]

India and china are growing power

but what about Pakistan yes they can produce hate and anger in the world

you don't know value of hardworking ask from any Chinaman

 

[aimarraul]

India and china are growing power

but what about Pakistan yes they can produce hate and anger in the world

you don't know value of hardworking ask from any Chinaman

people like you produce hate and anger.china have 1.3B people ,india have 1.2B people,but china is still behind U.S and japan,india is still behind other 11 countries,so wake up from your pipe dream

 

[Ghazy]

India and china are growing power

but what about Pakistan yes they can produce hate and anger in the world

you don't know value of hardworking ask from any Chinaman

Good, a really mature comment keep it up but just once think that you are representing your COUNTRY.
And about hardworking, India is 7 times larger than Pakistan and has economy almost 7 times so same per capita. More population and hardwork....... but you are clever enough to say ask a Chinese about hardwork not an Indian.

 

[bigmoneymaker]

wow, so you mean india will be equated to china after 3650 more days(20 years)??? now lets see what have you truly done within these three thousand days........look at the efficiency disparity between clumsy elephant and energetic dragon.....sure the ccp leaders know when to release grip on birth control to let the country productivity kept in a high level and not to be overpopulation which may cause hunger and chaos,.........well, after spring, summer, autumn, winter total 3650X4 seasons have passed, see who is aware of the rapid seasonal change.......who has more sense of time/efficiency??indian or chinese??