India stares at a future without jobs

[randomradio]

I have been trying to explain to Bussard when he posted about Japan's coffin industry. For the sake of mankind, ever growing population is disastrous to planet earth. Aging population does not mean dying country, it means the country will reduce their population to a correct equilibrium. With less people, the government can provide better services in child care, thereby maintaining the population at a certain band. I believe this is what Chinese government is trying to achieve, a population band within 500-800 million fluctuating in decades through government policies.

You can control population growth, you can't control ageing.

Precisely why having an ever growing population is not a good idea. Even China with their large job creating machine cannot cope with the increasing work force, let alone India. And if you read the article properly, it talks about underemployment, where struggling firms are keeping zombie workers for the sake of social security, what you don't realize is China has a serious labor shortage problem, it's a matter of whether these zombies are willing to relocate to those jobs.

China has a skilled labour shortage, not labour shortage.

 

[Han Patriot]

You can control population growth, you can't control ageing.



China has a skilled labour shortage, not labour shortage.

You can't control ageing but you can control birth rates to decrease the effects of ageing, it's a balance game, if you look at the Chinese strategy , the ultimate aim is still to reduce population, 2 child policy was extended to urban families to decrease the effects of a sudden drop.

China has a labor shortage for both skilled and unskilled labor. You will understand this when you come to China, I think I extended this visit to you many times.

 

[randomradio]

I agree reducing population is an imperative

No, it's not. Creating opportunities for growth is more important.

This BS about growing population is just BS. What we need for sustained growth is clean energy. If we have access to cheap, clean energy, then consumption will not be a disaster on the planet. This planet can handle ten times the population as long as clean energy is available. And we are most definitely moving in that direction in the long term.

You can put the entire population of India in just 2% of India's total land area by building a house for a family of four. The total population.

 

[wiseone2]

No, it's not. Creating opportunities for growth is more important.

This BS about growing population is just BS. What we need for sustained growth is clean energy. If we have access to cheap, clean energy, then consumption will not be a disaster on the planet. This planet can handle ten times the population as long as clean energy is available. And we are most definitely moving in that direction in the long term.

You can put the entire population of India in just 2% of India's total land area by building a house for a family of four. The total population.

clean energy is not easy. it is not cheap.
the environmental degradation is irreversible in some respects

 

[Han Patriot]

clean energy is not easy. it is not cheap.
the environmental degradation is irreversible in some respects

He will understand this when the underground water dries up. India used to be a region so rich in water, now it is so different, Bangalore looks like a semi-arid region, I heard from my colleagues, Bangalore used to be green.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...dwater-than-us-china/articleshow/58801496.cms

For the sake of humanity, please, what happens to India will affect China too.

 

[wiseone2]

He will understand this when the underground water dries up. India used to be a region so rich in water, now it is so different, Bangalore looks like a semi-arid region, I heard from my colleagues, Bangalore used to be green.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...dwater-than-us-china/articleshow/58801496.cms

For the sake of humanity, please, what happens to India will affect China too.

most of the Indian elite understands it
they need to show some backbone reducing the population growth rate

 

[aswin]

After 7 PC .. govt jobs have become the new limelight.

 

[randomradio]

You can't control ageing but you can control birth rates to decrease the effects of ageing, it's a balance game, if you look at the Chinese strategy , the ultimate aim is still to reduce population, 2 child policy was extended to urban families to decrease the effects of a sudden drop.

You can't control ageing, it's impossible. You introduced a 2 child policy but it's too late. In the future you can't introduce a 3 child policy and then a 4 child policy and so on and expect it to work. Your society has seen nearly 2 generations of 1 child policy individuals, you can't simply change their minds every few years.

You haven't yet understood how bad the 1 child policy has been. You will see it in the future, pretty soon as well. In just 15 years, your old age dependents will double. This is waaaaaaaay too soon. Just compare with Japan, you will realize the difference.

Japan's old age population doubled when they were at $37000 per capita. China will not even be half that in comparison.

China has a labor shortage for both skilled and unskilled labor. You will understand this when you come to China, I think I extended this visit to you many times.

*yawn*

Your unemployment rate is skyrocketing.

 

[Han Patriot]

You can't control ageing, it's impossible. You introduced a 2 child policy but it's too late. In the future you can't introduce a 3 child policy and then a 4 child policy and so on and expect it to work. Your society has seen nearly 2 generations of 1 child policy individuals, you can't simply change their minds every few years.

You haven't yet understood how bad the 1 child policy has been. You will see it in the future, pretty soon as well. In just 15 years, your old age dependents will double. This is waaaaaaaay too soon. Just compare with Japan, you will realize the difference.



Japan's old age population doubled when they were at $37000 per capita. China will not even be half that in comparison.


*yawn*

Your unemployment rate is skyrocketing.

Let me tell you a story, in 1982, Chinese population reached 1 billion for the first time and India in 1982 had a popn around 700 million, the gap was 300 million. Now China has 1.37 million vs India 1.31. You get what I mean? In the same period, the wealth gap between China and India increased from almost the same to 5x the gap.

So how much population is enough for India? 2 billion? 3 billion? If a large population is the crux of wealth, then you could have been rich at 1 billion.

Nobody is controlling aging. I don't mind China aging, all popn will age, the key is mitigate the effects of aging through a 2 child policy.

I told you many times, nobody can predict the future, what makes you think the working age will stay till 60? Western countries are already having people work well into their 70s, we will see this pattern in China. Will the young be burdened? Might or might not be, you fail to understand that China implemented a social security system 15 years ago. Btw, the debate here is not about China, we are in an Indian forum, we are discussing about the unemployment in India and the effects of overpopulation.

 

[randomradio]

clean energy is not easy. it is not cheap.

Clean energy has become easy, cheap and attainable. For example, India is not constructing any new coal power plants until 2022, that's 50GW worth.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-india-prompts-rethink-for-more-coal-projects
Solar is now as much as 50 percent cheaper than new coal power, according to solar research firm Bridge to India.

India has given itself the goal of producing 40% of its energy needs through clean, renewable sources by 2030.

http://www.hindustantimes.com/india...s-for-india/story-RsDH1IAohQNEqRxb426YbM.html
It aims at producing 40% of its installed electricity capacity by 2030 from non-fossil fuels.

But it is likely we will exceed that goal much earlier and at a much higher level.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/21/india-renewable-energy-paris-climate-summit-target
The Indian government has forecast that it will exceed the renewable energy targets set in Paris last year by nearly half and three years ahead of schedule.

A draft 10-year energy blueprint published this week predicts that 57% of India’s total electricity capacity will come from non-fossil fuel sources by 2027. The Paris climate accord target was 40% by 2030.

With the way things are going, we will never reach the carbon emissions of west.

Don't get swallowed by by the oft repeated rhetoric that we should decrease our population. It's peddled by vested interests in the west who wanted India to make major concessions in the climate deal.

Give it a few years, you will be able to power your own home with solar energy at a cheaper rate than the grid.

the environmental degradation is irreversible in some respects

Have you seen the quality of life in the west? That's where most of the environment degradation has happened throughout history. But you will also find the best environment there.

The worst pollution effects are mainly in developing countries, not in developed countries and most of that has to do with lack of civic sense, govt policy and corruption.

A larger population is completely sustainable without affecting the planet. The Chinese effed up, there's no need to jump off the cliff with them.

 

[Han Patriot]

Have you seen the quality of life in the west? That's where most of the environment degradation has happened throughout history. But you will also find the best environment there.

The worst pollution effects are mainly in developing countries, not in developed countries and most of that has to do with lack of civic sense, govt policy and corruption.

A larger population is completely sustainable without affecting the planet. The Chinese effed up, there's no need to jump off the cliff with them.

Yup the Chinese effed up and is paying the price cleaning it up, India is now repeating the same process by going steroids on 'population dividend'.

http://www.hindustantimes.com/delhi...-among-them/story-Gn2htcLbESB3BpeYJ4mY8K.html

Half of the world’s 20 most polluted cities are in India, said a World Health Organization report released on Thursday, indicating industrial and vehicular exhaust were choking large parts of the country with little oversight or monitoring mechanism.

 

[randomradio]

Let me tell you a story, in 1982, Chinese population reached 1 billion for the first time and India in 1982 had a popn around 700 million, the gap was 300 million. Now China has 1.37 million vs India 1.31. You get what I mean? In the same period, the wealth gap between China and India increased from almost the same to 5x the gap.

So how much population is enough for India? 2 billion? 3 billion? If a large population is the crux of wealth, then you could have been rich at 1 billion.

Nobody is controlling aging. I don't mind China aging, all popn will age, the key is mitigate the effects of aging through a 2 child policy.

India's rising population and slower economic growth are unrelated.

China's aging population and faster economic growth are unrelated as well.

The Indians effed up economic reform while CCP effed up demographics. The difference is India can still fix economic problems but the CCP cannot fix demographics.

I told you many times, nobody can predict the future, what makes you think the working age will stay till 60? Western countries are already having people work well into their 70s, we will see this pattern in China. Will the young be burdened? Might or might not be, you fail to understand that China implemented a social security system 15 years ago. Btw, the debate here is not about China, we are in an Indian forum, we are discussing about the unemployment in India and the effects of overpopulation.

Great. Why 70? Make it 80. I'm sure people will love to work that long. Good luck having a 50 year career. Making people work till they die is not a quality economy.

Whereas in India, we will aim for a 50-year retirement age. Cheers.

Yup the Chinese effed up and is paying the price cleaning it up, India is now repeating the same process.

http://www.hindustantimes.com/delhi...-among-them/story-Gn2htcLbESB3BpeYJ4mY8K.html

Half of the world’s 20 most polluted cities are in India, said a World Health Organization report released on Thursday, indicating industrial and vehicular exhaust were choking large parts of the country with little oversight or monitoring mechanism.

All countries have gone through this.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Smog_of_London

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...lved-mystery-1952-london-killer-fog/95375738/

 

[Han Patriot]

India's rising population and slower economic growth are unrelated.

China's aging population and faster economic growth are unrelated as well.

The Indians effed up economic reform while CCP effed up demographics. The difference is India can still fix economic problems but the CCP cannot fix demographics.

China effed up economically from 1949 - 1980, that's 30 years under communist economic system. By having less population, the Chinese government had more resources to employ for other programs, instead of trying to figure out how to feed more mouths. You understand? Nobody wants to fix demographics, having less population with a wealthier economy is what all developed countries are experiencing, when we need labor, we can always import from the Philippines. It is already happening, factories in South China are using Vietnamnese, factories in Yunnan are using Myanmarese, factories in the North are using NKoreans. In Urumqi, laborers are coming from Central Asia.

Great. Why 70? Make it 80. I'm sure people will love to work that long. Good luck having a 50 year career. Making people work till they die is not a quality economy.

Whereas in India, we will aim for a 50-year retirement age. Cheers.

Human life is being extended, it might even be possible to live till 120 average in the future. Nobody knows, but I do know the country with the technology and the wealth will prevail. Indians can work till 50 but if his kid has no job due to competition, the effects would be effed up too. Imagine having no social security, and you kid is smoking ganja and drinking alcohol in some village in India, using up your savings. These are real life problems India is facing.[/QUOTE]

India's rising population and slower economic growth are unrelated.

China's aging population and faster economic growth are unrelated as well.

The Indians effed up economic reform while CCP effed up demographics. The difference is India can still fix economic problems but the CCP cannot fix demographics.



Great. Why 70? Make it 80. I'm sure people will love to work that long. Good luck having a 50 year career. Making people work till they die is not a quality economy.

Whereas in India, we will aim for a 50-year retirement age. Cheers.



All countries have gone through this.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Smog_of_London

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...lved-mystery-1952-london-killer-fog/95375738/

My friend, you cannot compare the effects of tiny London against a billion people in India, we are talking about pollution on a global scale. Aquifer depletion in India is irreversible, you understand? The reason you are pumping like crazy is to feed your ever growing population.

 

[randomradio]

China effed up economically from 1949 - 1980, that's 30 years under communist economic system. By having less population, the Chinese government had more resources to employ for other programs, instead of trying to figure out how to feed more mouths. You understand? Nobody wants to fix demographics, having less population with a wealthier economy is what all developed countries are experiencing, when we need labor, we can always import from the Philippines. It is already happening, factories in South China are using Vietnamnese, factories in Yunnan are using Myanmarese, factories in the North are using NKoreans. In Urumqi, laborers are coming from Central Asia.

Yup. You are now depending on foreign labour which will eventually dry up, probably another 10 years.

Human life is being extended, it might even be possible to live till 120 average in the future. Nobody knows, but I do know the country with the technology and the wealth will prevail. Indians can work till 50 but if his kid has no job due to competition, the effects would be effed up too. Imagine having no social security, and you kid is smoking ganja and drinking alcohol in some village in India, using up your savings. These are real life problems India is facing.

Silly argument.

My friend, you cannot compare the effects of tiny London against a billion people in India, we are talking about pollution on a global scale. Aquifer depletion in India is irreversible, you understand? The reason you are pumping like crazy is to feed your ever growing population.

Oh, we have other options for water. Like the interlinking of rivers and desalination of sea water. Even getting water from the atmosphere.

The Israelis are champions in utilizing water and we have hired them to fix our problems.

http://www.thehindu.com/news/international/israel-far-ahead-in-water-recycling/article19216890.ece

http://www.hindustantimes.com/india...h-netanyahu/story-I8L66GwVfhB4TVrIFbvAjL.html

Half their fresh water comes from the sea, and India owns an entire ocean.

 

[wiseone2]

Clean energy has become easy, cheap and attainable. For example, India is not constructing any new coal power plants until 2022, that's 50GW worth.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-india-prompts-rethink-for-more-coal-projects
Solar is now as much as 50 percent cheaper than new coal power, according to solar research firm Bridge to India.

India has given itself the goal of producing 40% of its energy needs through clean, renewable sources by 2030.

http://www.hindustantimes.com/india...s-for-india/story-RsDH1IAohQNEqRxb426YbM.html
It aims at producing 40% of its installed electricity capacity by 2030 from non-fossil fuels.

But it is likely we will exceed that goal much earlier and at a much higher level.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/21/india-renewable-energy-paris-climate-summit-target
The Indian government has forecast that it will exceed the renewable energy targets set in Paris last year by nearly half and three years ahead of schedule.

A draft 10-year energy blueprint published this week predicts that 57% of India’s total electricity capacity will come from non-fossil fuel sources by 2027. The Paris climate accord target was 40% by 2030.

With the way things are going, we will never reach the carbon emissions of west.

Don't get swallowed by by the oft repeated rhetoric that we should decrease our population. It's peddled by vested interests in the west who wanted India to make major concessions in the climate deal.

Give it a few years, you will be able to power your own home with solar energy at a cheaper rate than the grid.



Have you seen the quality of life in the west? That's where most of the environment degradation has happened throughout history. But you will also find the best environment there.

The worst pollution effects are mainly in developing countries, not in developed countries and most of that has to do with lack of civic sense, govt policy and corruption.

A larger population is completely sustainable without affecting the planet. The Chinese effed up, there's no need to jump off the cliff with them.

you need 1000 GW for population of India's size

Yup. You are now depending on foreign labour which will eventually dry up, probably another 10 years.

Wait till the automation revolution hits