India Set to Outperform BRICs for First Time Since ’99

[sancho]

Its just a personal question from me and nothing else. Please take it lightheartedly.

No problem with that, asking questions and sharing views is the point of being on a forum right?

Being one of my most respected senior members on this forum from whom I have learnt so many things related to Indian defense, I find it amusing that you discredit this current government so much on this forum even before 1 year is completed. I never saw you do the same to the previous government

I did criticized the former government mainly on defence issues, since that is what I'm mainly interested in, but since the general elections I'm trying to get a better view on Indian politics itself, which I followed just lightly in the past.
I am not pro or con any specific party, but I am against generalising just because of preference to a specific party, that's why I point to facts, like in this case the that the government has nothing to do with the GDP growth of last year, nor that the new calculation method is actually something good for them, rather than for the UPA, because it shows that they had a credible growth in UPA 2, although the general perception was (falsely) that Indias economy is in a bad sitiation.
Same reason why I did a truth vs hype post on the defence procurements of the last 10 years, because the general perception was that Indian military is in a bad condition.
Or why I tried to look at election tactics of BJP and AAP in the current Delhi elections and on the promises of both sides...

I have no problem to give the PM credit for the effort he takes to impove Indian bureaucracy, or the good PR shows he did at foreign visits. But I will criticize him or the NDA government, for election promises that wasn't kept, for the lack of substance the foreign visit got us, for the delays of crucial defence procurements because of economic agendas.

The last 10 years was far away from as bad as the general perception is, just as the last 7 months were not as good as the NDA might want to make it and I want the government of India (no matter which party) to do more to improve India and not just give PR. That's why my hope and expectations on the coming budget is so high and will base my personal judgement mainly on that, because that decides Indias future and not the past 7 months.

 

[kaykay]

We are heading in good direction.

 

[Tridibans]

No problem with that, asking questions and sharing views is the point of being on a forum right?



I did criticized the former government mainly on defence issues, since that is what I'm mainly interested in, but since the general elections I'm trying to get a better view on Indian politics itself, which I followed just lightly in the past.
I am not pro or con any specific party, but I am against generalising just because of preference to a specific party, that's why I point to facts, like in this case the that the government has nothing to do with the GDP growth of last year, nor that the new calculation method is actually something good for them, rather than for the UPA, because it shows that they had a credible growth in UPA 2, although the general perception was (falsely) that Indias economy is in a bad sitiation.
Same reason why I did a truth vs hype post on the defence procurements of the last 10 years, because the general perception was that Indian military is in a bad condition.
Or why I tried to look at election tactics of BJP and AAP in the current Delhi elections and on the promises of both sides...

That makes sense.

I have no problem to give the PM credit for the effort he takes to impove Indian bureaucracy, or the good PR shows he did at foreign visits. But I will criticize him or the NDA government, election promises that wasn't kept, for the lack of substance the foreign visit got us, for the delays of crucial defence procurements because of economic agendas.

The last 10 years was far away from as bad as the general perception is, just as the last 7 months were not as good as the NDA might want to make it and I want the government of India (no matter which party) to do more to improve India and not just give PR. That's why my hope and expectations on the coming budget is so high and will base my personal judgement mainly on that, because that decides Indias future and not the past 7 months.

 

[sancho]

Modi PR actually increase FDI inflows in to India.

No it didn't look up the news reports from last year that showed that there is hardly any response to the increase of FDI in defence for example. That's not even his fault, but a logical situation in the difficult times we are in, since investors needs stability to take risks and invest into foreign markets. After the elections and with the huge mandate the NDA got, there was a lot of hope in the markets (that's why the stock market went nuts), but when you look at how that hope has translated into investments and growth improvements, it simply didn't show significant changes from the predictions that were done before the elections.
The outcome of whatever steps the new government has taken so far, is yet to come in this or the next year and it will be interesting to see how forward they are in terms of reforms, because that decides how strong we will grow. That we will grow was never in doubt, even former FM Chidambaram early last year predicted 6 to 7% growth within 2 years and that based on the older calculation methods and based on the changes the UPA did in 2013 (late but it did worked). So India growing while China is coming down and Brazil is going down hard, is nothing surprising, what's important however is, how much the new government can further push this growth, because we not only have to surpass the GDP in %, but have to get closer to Brazil and China in GDP value too.

This is not some exaggerated data.

Who said it's exaggerated? But it includes things, that wasn't included in earlier calculations, that's why according to the new method, the GDP for the UPA2 years is much much better too. The point now is, that one has to differ between the change of GDP growth as an effect of this method and as an effect of actual changes the new government implemented, because the latter is not visible in the GDP rates of last year.

That being said the real affect of the NDA

gobt only can see after 1 year.

Exactly my point!

 

[ashok mourya]

 

[IndoUS]

So they changed the base year, and what else?? I am still a bit confused as to what other things they added to the calculation.

 

[ashok mourya]

2016 India's growth rate will surpass china

 

[Bang Galore]

No it didn't look up the news reports from last year that showed that there is hardly any response to the increase of FDI in defence for example.

If you remember, I said that will be pretty much the case unless FDI is 51% or 74%.

 

[Lonely Hermit]

Its just a personal question from me and nothing else. Please take it lightheartedly.

Being one of my most respected senior members on this forum from whom I have learnt so many things related to Indian defense, I find it amusing that you discredit this current government so much on this forum even before 1 year is completed. I never saw you do the same to the previous government

He is butt hurt that govt is going to torpedo his Rafale deal.
After all Hatiyaro ke dalalo ka rozi roti ka saval hai.

 

[sancho]

If you remember, I said that will be pretty much the case unless FDI is 51% or 74%.

I know, but you base that opinion just on the percentage, while the lack of interest currently is based on the risk in the global markets and the little improvements the new government has shown to investors so far. If they bring credible reforms and really opens up for business, we will see more investments too.

He is butt hurt that govt is going to torpedo his Rafale deal.

Well that's a new one.

 

[Echo_419]

11 June 2012

'Fallen angel': India could be the first BRIC nation to downgraded as S and P report says Sonia and PM's division of roles is blocking reforms | Daily Mail Online

And then came Modi



Relax. AAP will not last long. People of Delhi will soon realize that they are incapable of governing.

The Results are not yet out so we should not get ahead of ourselves
On Topic
We have all the Potential to do so,let's hope there is no Major Fu*k up like the last time

Currently, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhatisgarh and Goa are BJP bastions.
In the long term, BJP will establish itself as the primary party in states like Maharashtra, Bihar, Rajsthan, HP, Uttarakhand and Haryana.

If they can get their acts together, will be sure shot contenders in UP, WB, Karnataka and Seemandhra.

That means around 75% of the industrial output will be streamlined with the policies of the BJP givernment at the center (I am assuming that Modi will be PM till 2023).

AAPKE muh mein Ghi Shaakar

 

[Bang Galore]

I know, but you base that opinion just on the percentage, while the lack of interest currently is based on the risk in the global markets and the little improvements the new government has shown to investors so far. If they bring credible reforms and really opens up for business, we will see more investments too.

I did base it on percentage as did several others including most US companies & even Airbus. Not much to do with global risk, it is simply because 49% gives them nothing really. It was a pointless exercise which benefited exactly nobody.

 

[Tridibans]

He is butt hurt that govt is going to torpedo his Rafale deal.
After all Hatiyaro ke dalalo ka rozi roti ka saval hai.

Well you are new to this forum, hence must not be aware of the poster you are talking about. He is one of the most knowledgeable persons on defense related issues on PDF. Two can disagree with each others pov but never go personal.... @sancho

 

[Lonely Hermit]

Well you are new to this forum, hence must not be aware of the poster you are talking about. He is one of the most knowledgeable persons on defense related issues on PDF. Two can disagree with each others pov but never go personal.... @sancho

I have been lurking in these forums for quite a long time not only pdf but also *** & BRF, trust me there are posters with their own vested interest in peddling these military hardware .

 

[Echo_419]

So predictable that the media is relating that with the new government and Modi, although neither Indias growth is related to anything that was changed in the last 7 months, nor are we suddenly outperforming the other countries, since Brazil is falling for quiet some time, Russia is highly effected by the Ukraine crisis and sanctions and Chinas growth reduction was predicted years ago and is even visible for some years now.
The PM and the NDA has yet to show actual changes to improve the economy and growth by delivering a proper budget with investments into infrastructure and reforms to make it easier for foreign companies to invest, because this is the time to take advantage of the weakness of other countries and push forward!

View attachment 191619

The above chart shows, that since the global financial crisis in 2008, the FDI into emerging markets rapidly went down, because investors didn't took much risks anymore. Good PR of the PM during foreign visits alone and even the FDI limit increase won't bring them back to India. The foreign and even most of Indian industry is waiting for more credible reforms to really give the economy a push.

View attachment 191618
Again since the global financial crisis in 2008, the export from emerging markets rapidly went down, because the global demand was far lower. That's one reason why Chinas growth got hit so much since then and why it is so difficult to get foreign companies outsource production to India (Make in India). If the PM wants to counter the trend, he needs to do more than good PR for the agenda, to not only make India a production hub, but also to use that to export products.


The NDA was voted into the government with huge trust of the Indian voter to bring credible changes in several fields, including a new push to the economy. If they now sit back and just show to the new GDP rates, that "looks" higher because of a new calculation method, or to the other BRICS countries that doing worse because of their own problems, it would be a huge disappointment. They have the mandate and the chance to actually do big things for India, lets hope that this doesn't go down in the usual party politics in India.

The current Govt needs to be given some time to show Results but in many areas you can see Important Changes which have been Initiated by this Govt,For Example

With government push, road projects race to finish- Study - The Economic Times
& this is just a few of many examples

That's a really good look back into the past. No more are we going to see China at 9%, Brazil at anything greater than 1%, Russia might see -4%! But India, DAMN!!! Good to see them become a premier economy. The scary thing is that they still haven't fully reached their potential! We might not see that massive growth China saw in the 90s, but India can sustain 8-9% annually for several years.

With the speed at which Reforms are being implemented,i am sure 9%+ for us is achievable but for China like crazy growth we need to really work hard for which we have the potential but sadly not the will (not at least now)