India may talk to ISI, Taliban

[DaRk WaVe]

Pakistan, US agree on new Afghan set-up​

Wednesday, March 10, 2010

News Analysis By Absar Alam


ISLAMABAD: A strategic shift in Pakistan’s three-decade old Afghan policy has taken a quiet but effective shape as Islamabad has successfully negotiated a peace plan with Mustafa Zahir Shah, the grandson of late King Zahir Shah, who would play a key role in future political dispensation comprising all ethnic groups. “It is a strategic coup by Pakistan against rising Indian influence in Afghanistan,” an analyst tartly remarked commenting on the development. As Islamabad has agreed to untangle the complicated jihadist network fabricated by General Ziaul Haq in 1979, it has acquired ‘iron-clad’ guarantees from Washington and other world capitals to gain advantages not only in regional political and economic affairs but also to get peaceful nuclear technology related benefits, sources privy to the most significant development taking place in the region in more than quarter a century, claimed.

Prime Minister Gilani’s spokesperson Shabbir Anwar, when contacted, said Pakistan wanted peace in Afghanistan. “We will do whatever we can in strengthening of the political institutions in Afghanistan.”

Anwar, however, said the Foreign Office would be in a better position to comment on such a development. The foreign office spokesman could not be reached despite repeated attempts as his cell phone was switched off.

“Karzai is fast becoming a seat-warmer for Mustafa Zahir Shah,” a diplomat commented. “But the young leader will have to perform a very complicated balancing act by satisfying both sides of the ethnic divides in the world’s one of the least governable countries.”

To continue to have a political foothold in Afghanistan and counter Pakistan’s thriving liaison with Mustafa Zahir Shah and the Northern Alliance, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh went to Saudi Arabia to get help in establishing contacts with Taliban. Saudi Arabia reportedly has refused to oblige.

According to the clinched deal, Islamabad would help cobble together a consensus political dispensation in Kabul comprising all ethnic groups, help ensure its stability, dismantle the dreaded militant infrastructure and carefully comb its security apparatus to avert the rise of radicalism. On all counts, Pakistan has already started delivering and brick-by-brick demolition of Jehadi infrastructure has already set in motion. A high-level Pakistani delegation held a final round of negotiations with Mustafa Zahir Shah and Northern Alliance in Kabul a couple of weeks ago.


Islamabad’s diplomatic circles are abuzz with this new, exciting development taking shape during the last few weeks. “To convince Mustafa Zahir Shah to lead, and make the leaderships of Northern Alliance and Taliban share power among themselves is a major breakthrough successfully engineered by Pakistan to reclaim its lost position in Afghanistan,” the sources said.

In addition to winning over the confidence of Mustafa Zahir Shah, the weaning off Northern Alliance from India is the most important milestone in Pakistan’s foreign policy as ties between the two sides had been strained for Islamabad’s tilt towards Taliban. As final touches are being given to level the rough contours of this win-win policy, the diplomatic sources in Islamabad are attributing great significance to the sudden dash of Chief of Army Staff General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani to Kabul over the weekend.

In return for the success of this policy, the sources claimed, Washington has given guarantees to Islamabad that it would support Pakistan’s efforts to buy nuclear power plants from France for peaceful purposes, limit India’s political role in Afghanistan and Pakistan would have the right to buy oil and gas on less-than-market price from the proposed oil and gas pipelines originating from Central Asia and Afghanistan to India. The royalty that Pakistan would earn on these energy pipelines passing through its territory would be in addition to the above benefits.

DG ISPR Maj-Gen Athar Abbas, when contacted to ask if Pakistani officials were engaged in negotiating such an understanding with the help of the US and the Nato in return for political and economic benefits of the country, he said: “It is a political issue and I have no comments”.

When asked about the high level contacts between Pakistani officials and Mustafa Zahir Shah and Northern Alliance leaders, Abbas said: “Not to my knowledge.” The arrests of top Taliban commanders from Mulla Abdul Ghani Baradar two weeks ago to Abu Yehya Gadan over the weekend is a testament to Islamabad’s sincere commitment with this new approach.

In his weekend visit Gen Kayani met Afghan President Hamid Karzai to, what the sources said, discuss his role, if any, in the new setup. Almost a week prior to Kayani’s visit to Kabul, a high-level delegation comprising officials who have been handling the Afghan strategy for decades, visited Kabul and met Mustafa to finalise the future peace plan for Afghanistan. The success has been reached following a series of behind-the-scene meetings in and outside Pakistan between Pakistani officials, Mustafa Zahir Shah, Saudi and US officials, and key leaders of Northern Alliance who have earlier been sceptical of Islamabad’s intentions.

The difference this time would be that Pakistan would ensure the acceptance of this new formula both by the Northern Alliance and Taliban with Mustafa Zahir Shah leading the brood. Sources claimed that the new plan would guarantee Pakistan’s political and economic interests in the region as well as the existence of a peaceful Afghanistan after the withdrawal of the US and the Nato troops.

The sources claimed that the establishment is quite serious now in reigning in radical elements who have been creating difficulties for Pakistan in the past. “Now they will not be given a free hand anymore and the elements within the establishment supporting such ideologies and activities would be sidelined in the next round of promotions starting from next month,” source said.

Pakistan, US agree on new Afghan set-up

 

[IceCold]

In return for the success of this policy, the sources claimed, Washington has given guarantees to Islamabad that it would support Pakistan’s efforts to buy nuclear power plants from France for peaceful purposes, limit India’s political role in Afghanistan and Pakistan would have the right to buy oil and gas on less-than-market price from the proposed oil and gas pipelines originating from Central Asia and Afghanistan to India. The royalty that Pakistan would earn on these energy pipelines passing through its territory would be in addition to the above benefits.

I wonder what those guarantees are and how effective will they be once US achieves its goal. We have seen such committments and guarantees in the past as well, in the end the only guarantee that we had was of sanctions being slapped on to us.
On a side note if US is to support our efforts in buying a nuclear power plant, why not provide us with one instead and pave our way to secure a deal with the NSG on similar lines as India.
For now i will hold my breath as its too early to celebrate, never the less a great news if indeed true.

 

[sensenreason]

As usual the Indian politicians and diplomats have screwed up badly. If Taliban is back and the west leaves Af..I expect the below outcomes..

- India's role in Af to go from very minor to zero
- Renewed 'Indigenous Freedom fighters' in J & K
- Restart of composite dialogue
- India to discuss Kashmir in the dialogue and make major concessions
- Major terror strikes across India during the negotiations over Kashmir or if talks start process is delayed
- US, UK & Australia to put out terror alerts against India...
- China to push for AP claims stridently
- Pak to get backdoor nuke deal
- Possible short skirmish/war during late April/May 2010

 

[waraich66]

India have to clear their accounts in Afghanistan , this time Talaban dont let them run away like before during Najeeb era.

If India can interfer in Afghanistan ,Talaban have also right to interfer in Dehli tit for tat

ISI/PA playing their cards safely , keep it up

 

[HAWK73]

India trying its best to destabilize Pakistan via Afghanistan.
India`s interest in Afghanistan is become more than any time in history after US take over Afghanistan.

India already support Taliban to make some terror activities into whole Pakistan.

 

[IMADreamer]

As usual the Indian politicians and diplomats have screwed up badly. If Taliban is back and the west leaves Af..

if this will be true ever than Iran,china,USA,U.K,west and Russia and later pakistani politicians and diplomats will feel same. so think will this possible ever ???

- India's role in Af to go from very minor to zero

India's role was never major in afganistan so not a prob. for us and also think NA as a party too.now india will also talk with some group of taliban too.

- Renewed 'Indigenous Freedom fighters' in J & K

No Kashmir ppl want voilence(it has been past now) in a vally now so without their support how can be this insergency will be called "Indigenous ".

- Restart of composite dialogue

India always interested in composite dialogue but terror has to be end.

- India to discuss Kashmir in the dialogue and make major concessions

"make major concessions"
forget ,it will never be happen just because of Taliban fear(You are thinking too much).
you forget before 9/11 in afganistaan the same situation was already same and we were neither as strong as right now nor world was with us too.

- Major terror strikes across India during the negotiations over Kashmir or if talks start process is delayed

negotiations over Kashmir because america left afgan bhai chad gayi hian tumhe

if that will happen than pakistaan will pay prize for it.

- US, UK & Australia to put out terror alerts against India...

ohhh now taliban main priority will be india instead of USA,Uk,autrelia(Because india attacked afganistan)

- China to push for AP claims stridently

if taliban will gain power in afganistan then china will forget about AP and tibbat and will be more worry about their unigar...

- Pak to get backdoor nuke deal

hahha so world will give nuke deal to those country who is supporting taliban (For motivating )
- Possible short skirmish/war during late April/May 2010[/QUOTE]

already answered

Bottom line is taliban will never gain as much power as it gained in a past.
indian role will be not as limited as it was before 9/11
..........
........

 

[DaRk WaVe]

India seeks a new direction​

By M K Bhadrakumar

The two-day visit by India's National Security Advisor Shivshankar Menon to Kabul last week took place in the immediate context of the lethal terrorist strike on Indians in Kabul on February 26, but it underscored the need for a comprehensive rethink on Delhi's Afghanistan policy.

No doubt, India's policy is at a crossroads. Assumptions behind the establishment thinking in Delhi in the recent years are fast withering amid the evolving situation in Afghanistan and India's growing security concerns. On the one hand, Delhi was complacent about its influence in Kabul outstripping Islamabad's and too confident that it rather than Pakistan was the "natural ally" to the US in the fight against terrorism.

The big question is whether Delhi is pragmatic enough to accept that new thinking has become necessary. First and foremost, it does not help if India ignores the nascent processes of Afghan national reconciliation. Delhi on its own is incapable of calibrating the Afghan reconciliation process and the Indian and US approaches diverge. Enduring peace can only come out of an inclusive political settlement in Kabul.

Delhi lost much time quibbling over the "good" and "bad" Taliban while the international community and regional players moved on. There was initially some uneasiness that the Afghan government led by President Hamid Karzai was seeking reconciliation with the insurgent groups.

But more worrisome for Delhi is the fact Karzai has begun seeking help from Pakistan. The fault lies entirely with the Indians in having failed to support him in recent months. Delhi backed losing candidate Abdullah Abdullah in last year's presidential elections on the facile assumption that Washington wished to see him in power. That was a disastrous error of judgment.

Karzai is expected to unfold a road map on reconciliation within the next six weeks. He hopes to hold a loya jirgha (grand council) on April 29 with a view, as he put it, to "get guidance from the Afghan people on how to move forward towards reintegration and reconciliation [with the Taliban]". And in his estimation, if there is greater participation by insurgent elements in parliamentary elections scheduled to be held in August, then further coalition-building becomes possible.

Delhi can anticipate that in all this, Karzai hopes for cooperation from Pakistan and as a quid pro quo he can be expected to factor in Pakistan's interests. The day after Menon concluded his visit, Pakistani army chief Ashfaq Pervez Kiani met Karzai in Kabul to discuss "matters of mutual interest". Karzai followed it up with a two-day visit to Islamabad that started on Wednesday.

Pakistan's assertiveness is bothering Indian strategists but Delhi seems to have overlooked that many factors work in Islamabad's favor. The Afghan elites in Kabul have close social and family kinships with Peshawar. The Afghan economy is dependent on imports from Pakistan. Pakistan has influence over Taliban groups and unlike in the past it has also cultivated the non-Pashtun groups of the erstwhile Northern Alliance. It also shouldn't be forgotten that more than 80% of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) supplies for the war in Afghanistan pass through Pakistan.

And most of all, Delhi underestimated that Pakistan is the US's key non-NATO ally in the war and that implicit in this is Pakistan's expectation to be recognized by Washington as a regional power. In fact, the US has been harping on a fundamental theme: Pakistan has a choice to make, namely, whether it wants to have a comprehensive partnership with the US and NATO; and if so, that it must cooperate with Washington's strategies in the region.


The prevailing view in India is that the Pakistani military continues to play it both ways. But they may be in for disillusionment as there strong likelihood is that Pakistani army chief Kiani may have begun to explore the potential of the US offer.

Pakistan estimates that it is closer than at any time before to gaining "strategic depth" in Afghanistan - and this time, Washington may acquiesce. Indeed, the US is encouraging Pakistan-Afghanistan harmony in any way it can. However, Pakistan carefully assesses that the US's regional strategies have significant implications for its "all-weather friendship" with China, its adversarial ties with India, and its troubled relationship with Iran. The US strategies aim at countering China's rise, fostering a strategic partnership with India and navigating the standoff with Iran on Washington's terms.

Delhi will closely watch Karzai's consultations in Islamabad as a turning point. Karzai urgently needs Pakistani cooperation for his reconciliation agenda and Islamabad expects the Afghan leader to pay heed to its legitimate interests. These interests undoubtedly include a rollback of the Indian presence in Afghanistan.

During his meeting with Karzai in Kabul, Kiani reportedly offered that Pakistan could undertake the training of the Afghan army. Delhi, too, has repeatedly shown interest in assisting the build-up of the Afghan army. Conceivably, the US concurs with the Pakistani offer, whereas it discourages any such Indian role in Afghanistan. NATO secretary general Anders Fogh Rasmussen stated in Jordan on Sunday that he would like to "encourage Muslim countries to engage in Afghanistan ... Muslim countries have valuable cultural and religious awareness and expertise to bear".

Soon after Kiani's meeting with Karzai, US Defense Secretary Robert Gates paid an unannounced visit to Kabul. At a joint press conference with Karzai he also complimented Pakistan's cooperation - "the security situation is no longer deteriorating and there are also a number of other positive developments ... Improvements in the relations with Pakistan have yielded tangible results and increased cooperation along the border ... there are grounds for optimism as our countries pursue what President Karzai has called an Afghan-led, and an Afghan-owned initiative to ensure peace and stability."

Thus, from the Indian perspective, a tough regional security scenario presents itself. There is no doubt that Karzai has a lot of goodwill towards India and, in fact, he was the recipient of the Indira Gandhi Peace Prize in 2005. But Delhi needs to come to terms with the reality that his preoccupation in the coming period will be to work closely with Pakistan and to ensure that the loya jirgha turns out to be a success and a cornerstone in the reconciliation process with the Taliban.

If Delhi failed to anticipate this shift in Karzai's order of priorities, it has only itself to blame. Thus, even in the face of impending realignments in the Afghan political and military situation that were obvious to most perceptive foreign observers, Delhi kept up the presence of a few thousands Indians in Afghanistan whose security becomes now almost entirely its responsibility to shoulder.

Delhi will be averse to taking such a responsibility that requires deployment of more Indian security forces to protect Indian establishments in Afghanistan. It may well be compelled to rethink the extent of its presence, notwithstanding the current official stance that no rollback is planned.

A better understanding of the Afghan security situation would have helped and at any rate a course correction is now needed with regard to Indian projects in Afghanistan during the transition period ahead.

One way out could be for Delhi to complete the projects in the pipeline and not undertake fresh ones. This is a sensitive issue since the Indian strategic community stands in favor of a forceful presence in Afghanistan and any rollback by the government may appear a weak-kneed response to Pakistani "blackmail".

But there is a big picture, too. The Indian strategic community overlooked that the US war had a hidden agenda. Simply put, NATO's enlargement into Central Asia, the US's containment strategy toward China (and Russia and Iran) and Pakistan's key role in US regional strategy - all these impact India's interests. Most important, there is a likelihood of regional hotspots such as North Caucasus, the Ferghana Valley, Xinjiang and Kashmir lighting up.

Delhi had put all its eggs in the American basket and now needs to activate its regional policies. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is scheduled to arrive in Delhi at the weekend. The Indian foreign minister is scheduled to visit China next month and possibly Iran by the end of March. The annual summit meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in June in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, becomes of added interest to Delhi.

However, the heart of the matter is that the Afghan policy is a microcosm of a larger malaise that the Indian foreign policy and security establishment needs to tackle. There is no evidence that Delhi has the political will to have a course correction in this aspect.

In retrospect, Delhi's hare-brained idea of a US-led "quadripartite alliance" against China, the "Tibet card", the dilution of a 2003 strategic understanding with Iran, neglect of the traditional friendship with Russia, the lukewarm attitude toward the SCO, exaggerated notions within the establishment regarding the US-India strategic partnership as an alternative to an independent foreign policy and diversified external relationships - all these appear now like dreadful pantomimes out of India's foreign policy chronicle of recent years that Delhi would rather not think about.

Asia Times Online :: South Asia news, business and economy from India and Pakistan

 

[Avatar]

This thread is funny. India never intended to play a big role in Afghanistan anyways! India was there for development, not war. Indian forces will continue to secure Indian assets in Afghanistan and that is all there is. India has better use for it's resources than WOT.

 

[DaRk WaVe]

'Pak poking nose, India must change Afghanistan policy'​

As talks of a re-think of India’s Afghanistan policy gain momentum, diplomatic circles are abuzz with various kinds of steps that New Delhi needs to take to remain relevant to Kabul.

Current reconstruction and rehabilitation efforts may have struck a chord among ordinary Afghans, but this soft power projection is not enough for the tougher times ahead. Some even argue that India’s over $1-billion investments in Afghanistan may go down the drain.

With the US and Nato forces getting ready to withdraw as early as next year, New Delhi has to look at a situation where president Hamid Karzai and his people are no longer in control and the Taliban would once again call the shots.

“Unless India prepares for the time when the American’s pull out, we will not be in a position to face the political crisis that it will trigger,” former foreign secretary Lalit Mansingh said.

He suggested that one way to do so was to revive the India-Russia-Iran axis which supported the Northern Alliance and played an important role in helping the US dislodge the Taliban in 2001.

Prime minister Vladimir Putin is arriving in New Delhi on Friday and Manmohan Singh is expected to discuss Afghanistan in detail. Mansingh believes that China can also join this regional forum as Beijing is as concerned about Afghanistan and the growth of Islamic fundamentalism in Xinjiang.

Retired diplomat Rajiv Sikri believes that while the India-Russia-Iran grouping must be revived, China should not be made a part of it. He suspects that whatever is being planned would be shared with Pakistan by the Chinese. “We are buying arms worth millions of dollars from the Americans. India has to cause Washington some pain for its voice to be heard,” he added.

A senior Indian official, speaking on condition of anonymity, refuted Sikri’s argument. “Perhaps, the number of troops will come down. We don’t expect the US to leave Afghanistan high and dry,” he said.

But he admitted that Afghanistan is likely to become an old-style battleground for a proxy war between India and Pakistan. In fact, it began with India caught on the wrong foot with the bombing of the embassy in Kabul in July 2008. The second attempt was a car bomb crashing into the embassy boundary wall and the third strike on Indian interests was last month at a guest house and a hotel. Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence had a hand in all three.

Pakistan is beginning to play a political role in Afghanistan, promising the US that it can be mediator and bring the Taliban to the talks table.

http://www.dnaindia.com/india/analysis_pak-poking-nose-india-must-change-afghanistan-policy_1357372

 

[DaRk WaVe]

This thread is funny. India never intended to play a big role in Afghanistan anyways! India was there for development, not war. Indian forces will continue to secure Indian assets in Afghanistan and that is all there is. India has better use for it's resources than WOT.

Fuuny, yeah funny, your officials are literally crying for been ignored & don't even suggest that India had altruistic motives in Afgh

 

[DaRk WaVe]

if Pakistan is so powerful then why don't you stop blast in Pakistan what your guys are doing is there any deal

Thats an Indian point of view, cant you smell it

as for deal, what deal are you talking about?

 

[Spring Onion]

if Pakistan is so powerful then why don't you stop blast in Pakistan what your guys are doing is there any deal

Because we are giving some space to ra.ts before culling them

Get a life

 

[Ecstacy]

India is carrying out some form of infrastructure development in Afghanistan.How come that is alarming to Pakistan??If Pakistan wants to be in good book of Hamid Karzai,then it should do the same..

 

[mjnaushad]

don't you know the deal


can you tell me why osama bin laden is still free

ISI know where he is

And who told you that ISI knows where he is.

must be NDTV.......

Hum ney uthaya hai parda aik aur raaz sey.........Janti hai ISI kahan hai Osama......

 

[DaRk WaVe]

And who told you that ISI knows where he is.

must be NDTV.......

Hum ney uthaya hai parda aik aur raaz sey.........Janti hai ISI kahan hai Osama......