India likely to sign $20 bn fighter jet deal only under next government

[PoKeMon]

It's not about my knowledge but about ground reality which fan-boys from my own country don't understand.

Yes this deal is important because, this deal will bring hard cash for their future research for further developing Rafale, but still will be a small part of what they spend in R&D.

Think it that way, will Project J-10 die if no export happens? NO
Will Project Tejas die if no export happens? NO

Exports only lowers the cost of future upgrades and can bring some money for future projects, but is still peanuts when you compare the total R&D cost especially in European countries.

You are either highly undermining the intellect of others or overly valuing yours.

France economy dont want a highly priced fighter and the only way to cut down the cost is export. They will not close the program since they need rafale for their security but export kill will certainly dent their ease of expenditure on R&D and more probably shutting down of rafale manufacturing lines resulting in job cuts and economical losses.

 

[janon]

You are either highly undermining the intellect of others or overly valuing yours.

France economy dont want a highly priced fighter and the only way to cut down the cost is export. They will not close the program since they need rafale for their security but export kill will certainly dent their ease of expenditure on R&D and more probably shutting down of rafale manufacturing lines resulting in job cuts and economical losses.

They have nobody to blame but themselves, if that happens. Inventing a fantastic produt is only part of the effort - making sure that it is something that can be produced and sold affordably is equally important. If they cannot make an affordable product, the product is a failure - as simple as that. Be competitive, or die - the reality of the market. There is a reason that even oil rich kingdoms in the middle east have not bought them after evaluating them.

 

[PoKeMon]

They have nobody to blame but themselves, if that happens. Inventing a fantastic produt is only part of the effort - making sure that it is something that can be produced and sold affordably is equally important. If they cannot make an affordable product, the product is a failure - as simple as that. Be competitive, or die - the reality of the market. There is a reason that even oil rich kingdoms in the middle east have not bought them after evaluating them.

The price they carry now doesn't simply over weighs the value they add.

Rafale are a ted better than MKI but bears a 2.5 times price tag. That neutralizes the low maintenance cost by a big magin.

They say it will help Indian industry. Recent skepticism and unwillingness of Dassault in sharing crucial tech suggest otherwise.

If we can not get something from Russia, be sure, we can not get it from anywhere in this world. FGFA should suffice the need of our R&D department and 150 Su-35 can do the same as a stop gap measure. Put more money into Tejas and AMCA.

 

[Kloitra]

I am aware of all that. But the question is, does the ''low maintainance'' matter, if the upfront costs are three times that of the MKI? The rationale for having a medium category fighter is that it should be cheaper than a heavy one - as it turns out, the medium fighter we selected is anything but cheap. In addition to the ludicrous cost of the fighter, there are also associated costs of training for a new platform, maintaining a trained flying and ground crew, syllabus and tactics and doctrines, spares and other logistical costs. We have already paid all that for the MKI. Will all these costs be offset by Rafale's purported lower maintainance cost?

MKI is not do it all, neither is cheap in maintenance, given the history of Russian planes. India need a plane to replace its ground attack fighters and some interceptors. For certain role, Rafale is better than MKI. Even if a known platform was introduced, as in increasing numbers of Migs or Mki, there would still be cost of training and maintaining a new crew. Also, new tactics and doctrines to be built around new role those planes would fill in. Along with being a medium fighter, which brings different capabilities than MKI, it is also bringing certain industries in India.

Besides, which is the ''certain tech'' that can only be gained from the Rafale, and from nowhere else? Why not simply purchase that tech alone, instead of the entire platform? That is why I said that the longer it takes, the less sense it makes - because the technological gap is being bridged every day by other countries, including Russia.

I am not sure if spectra is for sell, or is available else where. And this is just an example. Rafale brings in different techs and thus different possibility than the Russian crafts. Reduces the dependency on one country.

Rafales will start coming in 2017 at the earliest, if all goes well. By then PAKFA should be ready for testing, and in another 3 years, we will start getting 5th gen fighters, which can perform SEAD far better than Rafales ever can.

FGFA is still on papers. And India would not like a fleet of all Russian crafts with huge number of 5th gen. Think of it this way - India wants certain capabilities that MKI doesn't offer, FGFA does. Doesn't want large number of 5th gen, doesn't want large number of Russian crafts. Want tech transfer. Wants an industrial base. Wants investment. Wants a fighter which fulfils all its requirements - probably jack of many trades which Mig is not. Wants a medium weight craft which LCA, Mki and FGFA are not. Probably wants a quick reaction fighter like Mig, which Mki is not. Wants a craft with high availability which Russians and 5th gen are probably not.

Besides, now we also have huge force multipliers like AEWACS that we did not in 2000. The desi AEWACS costs only as muh as two or three rafales. Making a few of those will make the force a lot more potent than 126 Rafales can.

AEWACS have their own role, and Rafales have their own. I am sure you know it.

 

[JayAtl]

To politicians of Congress, national security comes second after election.

this is not just a congress problem, it is problem among the indian majority. they inherently are peaceniks... and the subject of national security and defense , unlike in all major powers( countries), is not even a national platform during election.

 

[Superboy]

Rafale is a medium sized plane. Very expensive to service. IAF should focus on Tejas, not on Rafale. Brazil is spending 125 million USD on each Gripen after citing Rafale being too expensive.

Each Rafale costs over twice as much as a Tejas to service, and costs some 160 million USD a piece to buy from Dassault. IMO, totally not worth it.

Word has it the deal would cost 30 billion USD if negotiations continue. That would make Rafale more expensive than F-22 at some 240 million USD a piece.

 

[graphican]

The thing is, the more the signing is delayed, the less sense it makes to sign up for it. The rationale for buying an MMRCA grows dimmer every passing day, with the LCA shaping up, and the 5th gen fighters appearing on the horizon for all countries. The MRCA requirement was put forth in the year 2000, as a desperate measure to arrest falling squadron numbers because the IAF had the foresight to predict that LCA, the replacement for the mig-21s, would not arrive soon enough. 14 years later they are still waiting for the ''quick-fix'' solution to materialize. However, now we have other options - the LCA mk1 will be ready for prodution before the first Rafale can arrive. It makes much more sense to churn out LCAs in large numbers, while adding Su-35 kind of technology to the MKIs to maintain qualitative edge. Then wait for the 5th gen fighters to arrive, instead of spending 5th gen level of money on a 4th gen jet.

At this stage, even an outright purchase of F-35 makes more sense than the rafale.

Well it won't be F-35 because of known issues and overprice. Su-35 could have been a good contender but India didn't want to put every egg in Russian basket and its not an option either. IF MMRCA survives, I can find an opportunity for F-18s or there is a grim chance of Rafale if number of procurement is reduced to 4 squadrons. But in such case there will be a question, will inducting a new platform for 4 squadrons feasible? Looking at current diversity of platforms India is using.. I would say probably not! So it is F-18s or LCA/MCA!

 

[janon]

Well it won't be F-35 because of known issues and overprice. Su-35 could have been a good contender but India didn't want to put every egg in Russian basket and its not an option either. IF MMRCA survives, I can find an opportunity for F-18s or there is a grim chance of Rafale if number of procurement is reduced to 4 squadrons. But in such case there will be a question, will inducting a new platform for 4 squadrons feasible? Looking at current diversity of platforms India is using.. I would say probably not! So it is F-18s or LCA/MCA!

I know it won't be F-35, it was a tongue in cheek statement to say that even that dim possibility makes more sense than the Rafale, if the prices being quoted are accurate.

It can't be F-18 or any other option, because the govt will simply not have the balls to go ahead with suh a move. There will be vested interests screaming bloody murder, if at the end of the much touted ''fair and transparent'' procedure, the govt dumps the jet selected through that procedure and goes for one that lost the competition.

However, if this MMRCA circus had not taken place or dragged on for so long, or if they had not shortlisted the two most expensive jets, I would have argued that the F-18 was a much better fit for the reuirement. Much cheaper, presumably arriving much quicker, and a very wide range of affordable weapons.

At this stage, it is not possible to go back to any of the options, except maybe the eurofighter, depending on what the terms of the MMRCA competition states, since they lost out on price and not technical grounds. That is why I suggested ditching the entire thing and putting all our money in the Indian basket, ie the LCA. As well as increasing MKIs.

Rafale is a medium sized plane. Very expensive to service. IAF should focus on Tejas, not on Rafale. Brazil is spending 125 million USD on each Gripen after citing Rafale being too expensive.

Each Rafale costs over twice as much as a Tejas to service, and costs some 160 million USD a piece to buy from Dassault. IMO, totally not worth it.

Word has it the deal would cost 30 billion USD if negotiations continue. That would make Rafale more expensive than F-22 at some 240 million USD a piece.

That's the total life cycle cost, including ToT and the price of setting up manufaturing lines. Not the ost of purchase.

 

[indoPunjabi]

RaFAIL deal will be scrapped by next government. We should stop bothering about raFAIL and consider other fighter jets ie su35

 

[egodoc222]

good decision stop this contract order more tejas 1 from current 40 to 120 and buy some mig 35 (60) stop gap

are u mad???
ur kangras govt says it has no money!!

RaFAIL deal will be scrapped by next government. We should stop bothering about raFAIL and consider other fighter jets ie su35

didn't know that su35 is in medium wt class!?