India likely to be world`s no. 1 economy by 2050: Citi

[Chinese-Dragon]

So why not neglect the thread rather than showing off your insecurities. Obviously you know that this is over optimistic don't you?

Yes, I said that on the first page of this thread.

For China to surpass the USA in nominal GDP by 2020, is ridiculously over-optimistic.

 

[Roybot]

I hate to throw a wrench into this spirited discussion about which country will have the biggest cojones by 2050. But even if India eventually surpasses China in total GDP, China will have had decades of head start in developing advanced technology, a formidable military, and an alliance structure (such as a strengthened SCO) that may have effectively contained India to the subcontinent--India is already strategically surrounded by China-friendly Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Myanmar. India will have a heck of a time breaking through Chinese strategic encirclement. That means the 21st century is still most likely to be a Chinese century.

You do realize the same can be said about USA and China?

I hate to throw a wrench into this spirited discussion about which country will have the biggest cojones by 2050. But even if China eventually surpasses USA in total GDP, USA will have had decades of head start in developing advanced technology, a formidable military, and an alliance structure (such as a strengthened NATO) that may have effectively contained China to the Yellow Sea--China is already strategically surrounded by USA-friendly Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Vietnam, Australia and India. China will have a heck of a time breaking through American strategic encirclement. That means the 21st century is still most likely to be a American century yet again.

 

[Tigershark]

You do realize the same can be said about USA and China?

Please elaborate. Central Asia is secured by CSTO and SCO and thus not in the US camp. Thus China only needs to worry about a one-front war. That's why China is developing a blue water navy that will eventually rival that of the US Navy. Taiwan is gravitating toward China and so are the Philippines. How exactly is China "contained" by the US?

 

[Roybot]

Please elaborate. Central Asia is secured by CSTO and SCO and thus not in the US camp. Thus China only needs to worry about a one-front war. That's why China is developing a blue water navy that will eventually rival that of the US Navy. Taiwan is gravitating toward China and so are the Philippines. How exactly is China "contained" by the US?

Am not saying that China won't be the superpower in the future, no ones doubting that, but if we went by your logic China would have never been able to overcome American dominance, but by the looks of things it will. Same will happen with India when time comes eventually. One power will be on the way up , the other will be on the way down.

 

[Tigershark]

I hate to throw a wrench into this spirited discussion about which country will have the biggest cojones by 2050. But even if China eventually surpasses USA in total GDP, USA will have had decades of head start in developing advanced technology, a formidable military, and an alliance structure (such as a strengthened NATO) that may have effectively contained China to the Yellow Sea--China is already strategically surrounded by USA-friendly Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Vietnam, Australia and India. China will have a heck of a time breaking through American strategic encirclement. That means the 21st century is still most likely to be a American century yet again.

South Korea is obsessed with North Korea and it is debatable whether the South will support any US intervention in China not related to the North. Australia is heavily dependent on China's trade and it is questionable whether US can take up the slack. You actually bring up a good point about US military supremacy, but the gap is closing, and in the event of an Indian war, again it is questionable whether US would share their technology with India. You also obviously don't subscribe to the theory of American decline. However quickly or slowly it may occur, US dominance will not last forever. Decline of empire is inevitable.

Funny. The comparison is between India and China. But the moment you feel India's position threatened, you bring up Uncle Sam!

---------- Post added at 11:09 PM ---------- Previous post was at 11:08 PM ----------

Am not saying that China won't be the superpower in the future, no ones doubting that, but if we went by your logic China would have never been able to overcome American dominance, but by the looks of things it will. Same will happen with India when time comes eventually. One power will be on the way up , the other will be on the way down.

I have no doubt India will have her time under the sun. But I believe that is unlikely during the rise of China.

 

[JayAtl]

This is not to mention China's lead in agricultural technology and farming practices, which produces twice the amount of rice per hectare.

with chemicals that are banned in other developed countries.

 

[Roybot]

South Korea is obsessed with North Korea and it is debatable whether the South will support any US intervention in China not related to the North. Australia is heavily dependent on China's trade and it is questionable whether US can take up the slack. You actually bring up a good point about US military supremacy, but the gap is closing, and in the event of an Indian war, again it is questionable whether US would share their technology with India. You also obviously don't subscribe to the theory of American decline. However quickly or slowly it may occur, US dominance will not last forever. Decline of empire is inevitable.

Funny. The comparison is between India and China. But the moment you feel India's position threatened, you bring up Uncle Sam!

---------- Post added at 11:09 PM ---------- Previous post was at 11:08 PM ----------



I have no doubt India will have her time under the sun. But I believe that is unlikely during the rise of China.

See same can be said about all the Chinese "allies" that you jotted down in your post, but lets not talk about the allies here.

I do subscribe to the theory of American decline, but lets face it, it will still have a huge economy, mighty military, technological prowess, huge resources and arable land, and considerably less population to take care of, than say China and India. And with other major powerhouses of the world like EU, Japan and India in its bloc, America will never be a pushover. China will never be able to project its power, like America was able to in the fag ends of last century.

Ideal situation for me would be if India, China and Russia could mend their differences and form an alliance. One can only hope.

 

[madooxno9]

with chemicals that are banned in other developed countries.

yeah brother the same chemical which they use to kill small kids with tainted milk....

 

[Tigershark]

See same can be said about all the Chinese "allies" that you jotted down in your post, but lets not talk about the allies here.

I do subscribe to the theory of American decline, but lets face it, it will still have a huge economy, mighty military, technological prowess, huge resources and arable land, and considerably less population to take care of, than say China and India. And with other major powerhouses of the world like EU, Japan and India in its bloc, America will never be a pushover. China will never be able to project its power, like America was able to in the fag ends of last century.

Ideal situation for me would be if India, China and Russia could mend their differences and form an alliance. One can only hope.

I actually agree with everything you said.
I also had hopes for a grand alliance between India, China, and Russia--until I joined this forum. Every since the border conflict in '62, both India and China wants security against the other, and both fight for influence over the countries bordering the other. It's a security dilemma and I don't see an easy way out of it.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

I do subscribe to the theory of American decline, but lets face it, it will still have a huge economy, mighty military, technological prowess, huge resources and arable land, and considerably less population to take care of, than say China and India. And with other major powerhouses of the world like EU, Japan and India in its bloc, America will never be a pushover. China will never be able to project its power, like America was able to in the fag ends of last century.

You say that like it is a bad thing?

The last thing we want to become is America version 2.0... projecting its power all over the Earth, and meddling in everyone else's internal affairs.

China has always been an insular, inward-looking civilization... and I hope it stays that way. Nations should look after their own affairs.

 

[JayAtl]

South Korea is obsessed with North Korea and it is debatable whether the South will support any US intervention in China not related to the North. Australia is heavily dependent on China's trade and it is questionable whether US can take up the slack. You actually bring up a good point about US military supremacy, but the gap is closing, and in the event of an Indian war, again it is questionable whether US would share their technology with India. You also obviously don't subscribe to the theory of American decline. However quickly or slowly it may occur, US dominance will not last forever. Decline of empire is inevitable.

Funny. The comparison is between India and China. But the moment you feel India's position threatened, you bring up Uncle Sam!

---------- Post added at 11:09 PM ---------- Previous post was at 11:08 PM ----------



I have no doubt India will have her time under the sun. But I believe that is unlikely during the rise of China.

somebody has not being paying attention to world news . South Korea and many others will ally with the US against china. Btw the entire world is obsessed with N Korea. every sane minded world is...

Australia has openly talked about shifting much of its trade with china to India as soon as possible. the world actually likes and respects India, they do business with china because they have to.

all India has to do and is doing- is to target china's no1 trading partners ( the one's that worth it) and start to have them shift their preference to India. we have already seen major trading partners openly talking about making India their no1 trading partner away from china in 5 years. the only thing holding them back is India's lack of manufacturing base- which is being addressed by the Indian govt. they started the race late but the fact that India is well respected in the world stage and China looked upon like one who supports world's pariah Nations- only works in India's favor.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

yeah brother the same chemical which they use to kill small kids with tainted milk....

LOL you guys are such hypocrites.

We all know which country here, has the highest number of child-deaths in the world. That country is India.

Talk about hypocrisy...

 

[JayAtl]

See same can be said about all the Chinese "allies" that you jotted down in your post, but lets not talk about the allies here.

I do subscribe to the theory of American decline, but lets face it, it will still have a huge economy, mighty military, technological prowess, huge resources and arable land, and considerably less population to take care of, than say China and India. And with other major powerhouses of the world like EU, Japan and India in its bloc, America will never be a pushover. China will never be able to project its power, like America was able to in the fag ends of last century.

Ideal situation for me would be if India, China and Russia could mend their differences and form an alliance. One can only hope.

what you have described is why US will continue to be a superpower and china will never be one. To be a superpower , its not just GDP, else Japan would have been one. Its military bases and NATO like alliances and simple military superiority. China is surrounded by the US.

 

[Tigershark]

somebody has not being paying attention to world news . South Korea and many others will ally with the US against china. Btw the entire world is obsessed with N Korea. every sane minded world is...

Australia has openly talked about shifting much of its trade with china to India as soon as possible. the world actually likes and respects India, they do business with china because they have to.

all India has to do and is doing- is to target china's no1 trading partners ( the one's that worth it) and start to have them shift their preference to India. we have already seen major trading partners openly talking about making India their no1 trading partner away from china in 5 years. the only thing holding them back is India's lack of manufacturing base- which is being addressed by the Indian govt. they started the race late but the fact that India is well respected in the world stage and China looked upon like one who supports world's pariah Nations- only works in India's favor.

You're assuming the world decades from now will look exactly the same as it does now. While India is busy chasing dominance in manufacturing toys and sewing garments, China will have created a consumption-oriented economy (as per the 12th 5-year plan) and taken America's spot as the world's largest consumer. With every country wanting a slice of China's 1.3 billion market, declaring war on China will be the last thing on their mind.

 

[JayAtl]

LOL you guys are such hypocrites.

We all know which country here, has the highest number of child-deaths in the world. That country is India.

Talk about hypocrisy...

we know which country hides its stats like it did on SARS and eathquake and T square ( its a fact and not flame). last thing china/chinese can do is brag about stats, when it's govt has been busted everytime lying about it...for all we know you have double/triple of what is happening in India. China has lost any integrity to speak about stats in the world eyes