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'India has simulation capability, N-tests not needed'

Interesting debate. I think both you have a point.

- Simulations even done by best trained men under ideal conditions can go wrong. So eventually a physical test kind is the 'ultimate' proof. In business, we conduct pilots before a full rollout...

However, between 74 and 98 India did make progress and without physical testing and maybe which is why one of tests didnt succeed 100%.But made enough progress to test 4 weapons successfully...so did Pakistan.

- On the other hand, the fact that majority of the tests were a success means that Nuke testing using simulations is possible and also used for many years by all nuke weapon states incl Pakistan (I guess..)

What this means is that when India next time says its got a thermonuclear device of say 100MT we should believe it would yield maybe 65MT if it were to fail....But that the weapon exists and works cannot be doubted or doubted at the owners risk only.

While, I would rather test and demonstrate the 100 MT to be safe. But the Chinese for instance cannot assume that the tests were dudes and treat Indian nuke program as failed and not take measures to counteract it.
 
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Developereo is correct...no simulation will match testing especially when you don't have correct test data to co-relate.If the hydrogen bomb did not work as expected then it does not matter how many simulations you run,what will you co-relate it to?

Remember only one thermo-nuke has ever been tested by India.

Once predictions are made, they can be tested by experiments. If test results contradict predictions, then the hypotheses are called into question and explanations may be sought. Sometimes experiments are conducted incorrectly and are at fault. If the results confirm the predictions, then the hypotheses are considered likely to be correct.
 
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Well Developereo, we have had an interesting debate in my opinion.
I have made my argument, And you made a very convincing one your self.
The rest is up to interpretation i believe.

Hope we can do this again. You make some very intelligent points.
:cheers:
 
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The Pokhran-2 controversy
India’s leadership and armed forces are satisfied with nuclear deterrent
by K Subrahmanyam


THE present controversy over the yield of Pokhran-2 nuclear tests is not the first such development in this country of argumentative Indians. Pokhran-1 also had its share of controversy on its explosive yield. Since it was not claimed to be a weapon test at that time and there was no talk of nuclear deterrence, that controversy was less fierce than the present one. Then, too, there were people who termed it a dud.

I have heard personally Prime Minister Morarji Desai saying that there was no nuclear test and the scientists set off an explosion of a large quantity of buried conventional explosives. Others contested the claimed yield of 12 kilotons and asserted that it was only 8 kilotons. The result of the Pokhran-1 controversy survives till today and contributes to the present one. Many foreign scientists concede that they arrive at a lower yield of the Pokhran-2 test by extrapolating the lower yield of Pokhran-1 as advanced by some Indian scientists.

Controversies and personality clashes among scientists are not unknown. In the West, one has heard of the Oppenheimer-Teller clash or the one between Oppenheimer and E.O.Lawrence. In India, too, we had Bhabha-Saha clash and the deep divide between Dr Raja Ramanna and H. N. Sethna. When Vikram Sarabhai was the Chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission the relations between him and the Trombay establishment were quite cold. Scientists by the very nature of their vocation are highly individualistic people and they prefer to be convinced about a fact personally on the basis of evidence.

Nuclear physics is an arcane subject and in that weapon designing is even more esoteric. There are, therefore, limits to transparency on it. Moreover, this is India’s second fission test and first thermonuclear test. With the exception of two — Dr P. K. Iyengar and the late Dr Ramanna — all other weapon designing talent was involved in the Pokhran-2 test. Of the two outside, Dr Iyengar is a sceptic while Dr Ramanna, when he was alive, accepted the claimed yield.

All nuclear scientists are not necessarily familiar with the intricacies of weapon design. There is a popular tendency in the country to accept that all people associated with the Department of Atomic Energy are knowledgeable in the intricacies of nuclear weapons. This is not the case.

It has been widely propagated that many foreign scientists have questioned the yield of Pokhran-2. Usually when seismic stations monitored a nuclear test they used to announce the magnitude of the explosion in terms of ranges of yields as, for instance, a low- yield explosion of 5-15 kilotons or a medium-yield explosion of 15-60 kilotons. Very rarely was a precise yield reported. The ease with which many foreign assessments were made about precise yields made them suspect, especially when they were not familiar with geological structures and soil conditions at the test site.

The very first report from the West termed the test an earthquake. There could also be some resonance between the domestic scepticism and foreign assessments.

Dr Chidambaram, former Chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission and head of the weapon designing team in 1998, writing in “Atoms for Peace” (Vol. 2 No. 1, 2008), cites an article in New Scientist (Mackenzie 1998) where it said, “Roger Clark, a seismologist of the Leeds University found that when data from 125 stations — closer to the number required by the treaty (CTBT) monitoring network — are taken into account the estimate is nearer 60(kilotons)”. He also refers to the finding of a world-renowned seismologist, Jack Evernden, being consistent with the official claim.

The issue was examined in a review by then National Security Adviser, Brajesh Mishra. If the weapon designers had doubts about the yield they could have conducted one more test within the first few days after the May 11 test since one more shaft was available, before any commitment was made on voluntary moratorium.

Apparently, the weapon design team did not have any doubts on the result. But on the very first day the sceptics had doubts. There was a popular view that the thermonuclear test should be of 100 kilotons and above and, therefore, this could not be a thermonuclear explosion. In any case, the shaft could not have withstood any explosion higher than 60 kilotons.

Do we conduct some more tests to satisfy the sceptics? This cannot be publicly debated just as conducting the nuclear tests was not debated. The nuclear tests of 1998 were not to pre-empt any Pakistani move but were a response to the provocative Pakistani Ghauri missile test and also to declare India a nuclear weapon state in the early days of the new BJP-led NDA government before the Americans started applying pressure on India. At that time it was expected that the CTBT would come into force in 1999.

The late P. V. Narasimha Rao had urged Mr Vajpayee to conduct the test early in 1996. It could not be done in the 13 days the BJP was in office and was carried out in May 1998. Pakistan’s tests were in response to the Indian tests and the interaction between Pakistan and the US on the issue is a matter of public record. But Pakistan had its nuclear weapon tested by China at the Lop Nor test site on May 26, 1990, according to the disclosure in the book “The Nuclear Express” by two US scientists, Thomas Reed and Danny Stillman. India lived in a state of unfavourable deterrent asymmetry in the nineties till the Shakti tests were carried out.

As Prime Ministers V.P. Singh and I.K. Gujral explained after the tests, the file to test was always on their table. Narasimha Rao came close to conducting the test. But only Vajpayee could do it by taking the world by surprise. During all that time there were no TV debates or newspaper editorials or strategists screaming about India’s vulnerability.

India became a nuclear weapon power and in the next eight years its strategic arsenal has been accepted by the international community. India has also the NSG waiver. All that happened in spite of opposition from sections of our people who preferred a confrontationist strategy with the international community.

The government leadership is satisfied with the state of our deterrent posture and so also the armed forces. In the US and Russia, too, there are people dissatisfied with the readiness of their arsenals and would like to resume testing. But the majority public opinion in those countries is opposed to it. Fission weapons of 60-80 kilotons have been successfully fabricated and standard thermonuclear warheads of today are neither in megatons nor in hundreds of kilotons. Our fission weapon capabilities are not under question. So long as the adversary believes that the nuclear explosions in his cities will cause him unacceptable damage he will be deterred.

Whether it is the CTBT, the FMCT or conducting nuclear tests, it is counter-productive to look at these issues in a narcissistic manner. We should try to exploit the opportunities as they arise. This country is just learning to do it and we have a long way to go. The need of the moment is to avoid chauvinism and steadily improve the capacity of the country to grow and deliver without demagoguery.

The Tribune, Chandigarh, India - Opinions
 
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I agree, to an extent.

My point was that if there is a flaw in your program logic, either by programming error or faulty assumptions, then your results will not be correct. That is why long term climatic models tend to be useless because we simply do not understand all the variables involved.

That is what is meant by GIGO (garbage in garbage out), whether it's a $50 used computer, or a multimillion dollar supercomputer. The results are only as good as the program and data fed into it.

I have worked in the IT field, and programming errors are notoriously hard to find. Especially in complex simulation software like atomic explosions, climate modeling, protein folding, etc, etc,

yes...exactly...but running simulations is cheap and can be re-run...and depending on the type of assembler and the debugging procedure involved...can be run from stages where max errors are present...
I get that no matter what a real test is a real physical test...but you know that it's not the choice of any one to opt for anything that compromises accuracy...we have no choice...nobody wants sanctions...and we depend on the skills of teams of scientists who labor 24X7 to detect...the Ktn yield of the simulated blast...who verify...smaller lab models and feed their data to the supercomputers(as reference) and predict a larger yield akin to a large Ktn scale detonation...believe me most variables are accounted for...and it's pretty accurate.
on a supercomp...you can involve atomic level integration...which is necessary for a nuke simulation...but a real test is still a real test.
 
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TO all Members,


stop discussing on Indian nuclear, as we don't know anything that we found, we all heard from media.


We will only know IF there is nuclear war!!!!

:usflag::coffee::pop:
 
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I don't need to read it. I am trained as a scientist. Any scientific theory without experimental proof is worthless. It is not science, it is philosophy. (I consider string theory to be philosophy, not physics.)

Just because an answer comes out of a supercomputer (wow!) does not make it any more valid. Garbage in, garbage out. Words like supercomputer only serve to impress the nontechnical people. Anybody who is familiar with science and computer programming will want verifiable data.
......

Well said, I could tell you were intelligent as you didn't blindly believe everything. :cool:
 
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paritosh,gogbot, I agree with your point that, in the face of international political realities, actual tests may not be possible and computer simulations can be very useful.

Fair enough. :cheers:

It is also true that many countries are looking into laser technologies to maintain/advance their nuclear weapons programs.

Simulations, lasers -- these are all good ways to get around test bans.
 
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i'm surprised to hear a comment like this from top indian scientists. we know all too well that there is no other subsititute to a full nuclear test. Sooner or later , india would have to go for a full nuclear test. if we are to compete with global powers , we must have a megaton range reactor. Only a nuclear test can truly test our abilities
 
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Stressing that the country has ''comprehensive'' simulation capability, Atomic Energy commission chief Dr Anil Kakodkar said Wednesday that the country did not require additional nuclear tests. Dr Kakodkar was joining issue with a small band of ex-nuclear and defence scientists who have recently questioned the success of the thermonuclear device tested on 11 May 1998 at Pokharan.


Baneberry's accidental radioactive plume rises from a shock fissure
The dissenting scientists, all very senior ex-officials and well informed, have issued a warning to the political establishment at New Delhi not to be pressured into signing contentious treaties, such as the CTBT, as the country may need to go in for additional nuclear weapon tests to validate design and technologies. It is their contention that the 'shot' on 11 May 1998 did not yield the desired results, a claim, they say, which is validated by international observations.

This has been hotly contested by other scientists, including Dr Kakodkar, who was himself part of the 11 May 'Buddha Smiles' tests.

"We have enough data. We have comprehensive simulation capability and therefore there is no need for any more tests," Dr Kakodkar said. "We are very confident about the simulation capability."

The recent controversy was ignited by ex-DRDO scientist K Santhanam, who was intimately involved with the tests. He claimed that as far as the thermonuclear device was concerned it was a 'fizzle,' which in nuclear parlance denotes a failure.

"We used the data of 'Baneberry' nuclear tests of US of 18 December1970 to validate our 3-D simulation for earth motion and displacement and this validated tool was used for bench marking," Dr Kakodkar said.

''Scaling up of neutronic calculations can always be done,'' he said, adding that all the observations and calculations were done by scientists from BARC.

Dr Kakodkar said that the measurements, carried out by BARC scientists were done meticulously and that a large number of diverse instrumentations were used for four independent measurements -- seismic, large teleseismic, accurate measurements at Gauribidanur seismic measurement site; radiochemical samples estimation done by different groups; specific evidence of fusion reaction and 3-D simulation of motion of earth and displacement.

Baneberry nuclear event

In March 2009, TIME magazine identified the 1970 Yucca Flat Baneberry Test, where 86 workers were exposed to radiation, as one of the world's worst nuclear disasters.

On 18 December 1970, the 'Baneberry' underground nuclear test (a code name accorded individually to all nuclear tests, much as hurricanes carry names in the US) conducted at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) released radioactivity into the atmosphere. Baneberry had a yield of ten kilotons and the bomb was buried about 900 feet beneath the surface of Yucca Flat.

The energy cracked the soil in unexpected ways, causing a fissure near ground zero and the failure of the shaft and cap. A plume of fire and dust was released three and a half minutes after ignition, raining fallout on workers in different locations within NTS.

The radiation release or venting resulted in a cloud of radioactive dust that reached an altitude of 10,000 feet. Baneberry's accidental radioactive plume was carried in three different directions by the wind.

The radioactive plume released 6.7 million Curies of radioactive material, including 80 kCi of 131I.

After dropping a portion of its load locally, the hot cloud's lighter particles were carried to three altitudes and conveyed by winter storms and the jet stream to be deposited heavily as radionuclide-laden snow in Lassen and Sierra counties in northeast California, and to lesser degrees in southern Idaho, northern Nevada and some eastern sections of Oregon and Washington states.

The three diverging jet stream layers conducted radionuclides across the US to Canada, the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean.

Extensive geophysical investigations, coupled with a series of 1D and 2D computational studies were used to reconstruct the sequence of events that led to the catastrophic failure.

However, the geological profile of the Baneberry site was complex and inherently three-dimensional, which meant that some geological features had to be simplified or ignored in the 2D simulations. To address this issue, a new study was undertaken that encompassed 3D high-fidelity Baneberry simulations based on the most accurate geologic and geophysical data available.

The computational model used included about 40 million zones and the simulation required approximately 40,000 CPU hours to complete, thus making it the largest simulation of its kind.

The simulation helped establish a new capability to perform underground test containment simulations in 3D.

Following the Baneberry venting, new containment procedures were adopted to prevent similar occurrences.

In 1984, Yucca Flats was called "the most irradiated, nuclear-blasted spot on the face of the earth".
 
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Russia to test its nuclear deterrent with supercomputers


SAROV (central Russia), July 22 (RIA Novosti) - Russia's Security Council will discuss a series of projects on the development of supercomputers to test the effectiveness of the country's nuclear deterrent, President Dmitry Medvedev said on Wednesday.

"Under the global ban on nuclear tests, we can only use computer-assisted simulations to ensure the reliability of Russia's nuclear deterrent," Medvedev said at a meeting of a commission on the modernization of Russian economy.

"Therefore, the most powerful supercomputers will be placed in federal nuclear centers," he said.

Medvedev said the All-Russia Research Institute of Experimental Physics in Sarov, where the meeting took place, will develop by 2011 a computer capable of simultaneously conducting one quadrillion operations.

"We have allocated the necessary sum of over 2.5 billion rubles [about $80 mln], which is no small sum of money, and we are planning to develop this direction along with technological advancements in computer sciences," the president said.

Link :Russia to test its nuclear deterrent with supercomputers | Top Russian news and analysis online | 'RIA Novosti' newswire
:cheers:
 
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NNSA (USA) Supercomputers Continue To Lead Globally


The National Nuclear Security Administration congratulates its national laboratories and Advanced Simulation and Computing program for earning three of the top 10 spots, and four of the top fifteen, on the latest TOP500 supercomputer list

“The work done on these complex machines enables us to maintain the safety, security and effectiveness of our nuclear stockpile without nuclear testing,” said NNSA Administrator Thomas D’Agostino. “The supercomputing systems are a critical example of our investment in nuclear security making contributions to broader science and discovery. I am very pleased to see our laboratories and highly skilled personnel recognized for their groundbreaking contributions to the advancement of our national security programs and the field of supercomputing.”

NNSA uses its supercomputing capabilities through its Defense Programs Office of Advanced Simulating and Computing (ASC) to ensure the United States nuclear weapons stockpile continues to be safe, secure and reliable without nuclear testing

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The article has a lot to read further LINK : NNSA Supercomputers Continue To Lead Globally - Nuclear Power Industry News :azn:
 
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Previously members have debeted that simulators are useless then why is it that the countries like russia and US are using them with such confidence.This is because simulators are not magical wands which will tell you the some data without testing the warhead but will help you keep maintain a higher yeild time and again without a actual Nuclear Test :cheers:
 
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Previously members have debeted that simulators are useless then why is it that the countries like russia and US are using them with such confidence.This is because simulators are not magical wands which will tell you the some data without testing the warhead but will help you keep maintain a higher yeild time and again without a actual Nuclear Test :cheers:

Simulations are always simulations bro. What will we do if our weapons worked the opposite way and not like in simulations, at the time of an actual nuclear war.

why is it that the countries like russia and US are using them with such confidence

US and Russia doesn't need to conduct more tests. They have tested enough to know what they want. They can do the rest in simulations.
 
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