Dubious
RETIRED MOD
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It is a national holiday in India on Thursday, meaning there is less news than usual. The country’s more jingoistic television stations therefore seemed delighted to hear of remarks by Pakistan’s army chief General Raheel Sharif, who in a speech on Wednesday dubbed Kashmir the “jugular vein” of his nation.
What the general meant by this is not precisely clear, but the talking heads wheeled out over the border to condemn him seemed to have few doubts that India’s neighbour was somehow up to old tricks.
Minor spats come and go, but Wednesday’s remarks come at a sensitive moment for relations between the two nuclear armed states, given the prospect that Hindu nationalist opposition leader Narendra Modi will become India’s prime minister later this month — potentially bringing with him, some fear, a more hardline approach to bilateral relations.
Such suspicions were stoked this week by a second row, following reports that Modi told a Gujarati news channel over the weekend that he would redouble efforts to bring to justice a gangster called Dawood Ibrahim, the man believed to be responsible for terror attacks in Mumbai in 1993. Many analysts think Ibrahim now lives in the Pakistani coastal city of Karachi, a sore point in India.
The news brought condemnation from Pakistan’s interior minister, who described Modi’s remarks as a “provocative and condemnable statement” which tested the “last limit of enmity towards Pakistan,” according to the APP news agency. And this in turn prompted further predictable umbrage in India.
So what impact might a Modi-led India mean for its traditional rival? Supporters of the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party have traditionally backed a harder line against Pakistan. Modi has made tough-sounding statements in the past, while his relations with Muslims of all stripes remains coloured by the legacy of riots in 2002 in which many hundreds died.
Yet Modi has made little mention of cross-border issues during his campaign, while Pakistan also did not feature in the BJP’s election manifesto. Modi’s singular focus on economic reforms suggests he isn’t planning much in the way of sabre rattling and may even be open to measures to improve commercial ties between the two countries.
Adhul Basit Khan, Pakistan’s High Commissioner to India, told beyondbrics that he hoped for particular progress in this area. “Trade is one area where both can work together,” he said. “We can move very, very fast on reducing or eliminating non-tariff barriers.” He went on to mention a variety of regulations from telecoms to sanitary products that could be changed to allow businesses in both countries access to each other’s markets.
Nawaz Sharif, Pakistan’s prime minister, also seems keen on improved ties, talking frequently about reviving talks over Kashmir during his own election campaign last year. He made little progress on trade talks prior to India’s election, but did postpone granting India “most favoured nation” trading status — potentially allowing the gesture to be made to the country’s next prime minister.
A recent note from the Eurasia group, a risk consultancy, concurs that there are reasonable prospects for minor improvements in business ties and relatively minor risks of deliberately provocative nationalist or ideological moves by either side.
The more likely risk is a terror attack on Indian soil, according to Anjalika Bardalai, Eurasia group’s senior analyst:
Given the emphasis it has placed on defence and its repeated criticism of Congress over the past 10 years for being “soft” on national security, a BJP-led government would likely feel compelled to respond to any terrorist attack traced back to Pakistan much more harshly than the Congress-led government has during its tenure.
There are other potential problems too, not least rising tensions over Afghanistan, as the drawdown of almost all western forces continues this year. Even so, led by two relatively pragmatic leaders, both of whom need to make quick progress turning round their respective economies, baby steps on bilateral trade may just be possible.
India elections: would Pakistan vote for Modi? – beyondbrics - Blogs - FT.com
I didnt know we had a vote in this?!
What the general meant by this is not precisely clear, but the talking heads wheeled out over the border to condemn him seemed to have few doubts that India’s neighbour was somehow up to old tricks.
Minor spats come and go, but Wednesday’s remarks come at a sensitive moment for relations between the two nuclear armed states, given the prospect that Hindu nationalist opposition leader Narendra Modi will become India’s prime minister later this month — potentially bringing with him, some fear, a more hardline approach to bilateral relations.
Such suspicions were stoked this week by a second row, following reports that Modi told a Gujarati news channel over the weekend that he would redouble efforts to bring to justice a gangster called Dawood Ibrahim, the man believed to be responsible for terror attacks in Mumbai in 1993. Many analysts think Ibrahim now lives in the Pakistani coastal city of Karachi, a sore point in India.
The news brought condemnation from Pakistan’s interior minister, who described Modi’s remarks as a “provocative and condemnable statement” which tested the “last limit of enmity towards Pakistan,” according to the APP news agency. And this in turn prompted further predictable umbrage in India.
So what impact might a Modi-led India mean for its traditional rival? Supporters of the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party have traditionally backed a harder line against Pakistan. Modi has made tough-sounding statements in the past, while his relations with Muslims of all stripes remains coloured by the legacy of riots in 2002 in which many hundreds died.
Yet Modi has made little mention of cross-border issues during his campaign, while Pakistan also did not feature in the BJP’s election manifesto. Modi’s singular focus on economic reforms suggests he isn’t planning much in the way of sabre rattling and may even be open to measures to improve commercial ties between the two countries.
Adhul Basit Khan, Pakistan’s High Commissioner to India, told beyondbrics that he hoped for particular progress in this area. “Trade is one area where both can work together,” he said. “We can move very, very fast on reducing or eliminating non-tariff barriers.” He went on to mention a variety of regulations from telecoms to sanitary products that could be changed to allow businesses in both countries access to each other’s markets.
Nawaz Sharif, Pakistan’s prime minister, also seems keen on improved ties, talking frequently about reviving talks over Kashmir during his own election campaign last year. He made little progress on trade talks prior to India’s election, but did postpone granting India “most favoured nation” trading status — potentially allowing the gesture to be made to the country’s next prime minister.
A recent note from the Eurasia group, a risk consultancy, concurs that there are reasonable prospects for minor improvements in business ties and relatively minor risks of deliberately provocative nationalist or ideological moves by either side.
The more likely risk is a terror attack on Indian soil, according to Anjalika Bardalai, Eurasia group’s senior analyst:
Given the emphasis it has placed on defence and its repeated criticism of Congress over the past 10 years for being “soft” on national security, a BJP-led government would likely feel compelled to respond to any terrorist attack traced back to Pakistan much more harshly than the Congress-led government has during its tenure.
There are other potential problems too, not least rising tensions over Afghanistan, as the drawdown of almost all western forces continues this year. Even so, led by two relatively pragmatic leaders, both of whom need to make quick progress turning round their respective economies, baby steps on bilateral trade may just be possible.
India elections: would Pakistan vote for Modi? – beyondbrics - Blogs - FT.com
I didnt know we had a vote in this?!
