India clocks tepid 4.7% growth in Oct-Dec quarter

[shuntmaster]

First and foremost, India has to tackle its problem of current account deficit.
Indians have to curb their appetite for gold and thirst for oil. The is no point in just blaming the government.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

First and foremost, India has to tackle its problem of current account deficit.
Indians have to curb their appetite for gold and thirst for oil. The is no point in just blaming the government.

There is nothing wrong with importing raw materials, which are needed for economic output.

There needs to be a balance, if you import a lot, you have to manufacture and export a lot as well.

 

[shuntmaster]

There is nothing wrong with importing raw materials, which are needed for economic output.

There needs to be a balance, if you import a lot, you have to manufacture and export a lot as well.

India imported $235Bn and exported $142Bn in 2013. In imports, oil alone was worth $155Bn and gold and silver was $62Bn. Most of Gold & Silver goes into jewelry in India and not into any productive activity..

 

[Vinod2070]

Outside of oil imports, India has a net current account surplus.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

BBC News - India's economy grows slower than expected

Two years ago, India's growth rate stood at about 8%.

Economists say the country needs to grow by that much in order to generate enough jobs for the 13 million people entering the workforce each year.

According to economic experts, India requires at least an 8% growth rate in order to create enough jobs for all the people entering the workforce every year.

The best thing to do now, is to set up a mass manufacturing base. That will provide large-scale employment, it will create millions of low-paid and low-skilled jobs, and it will encourage urbanization and the building up of infrastructure around the country.

And does anyone have any insight, as to why India's manufacturing sector is currently shrinking in nominal terms?

 

[kbd-raaf]

Did you know Pakistan is in the middle of a war, yet it grew at 5% in the last quarter?

For developing countries at this stage of development, both India and Pakistan should be growing much faster.

Without the war, Pakistan should be growing at 7-8%, and without Congress India should be growing at 7-8% too (or more).

I'm pretty sure the Indian figures have been fudged as well. The revised growth last year in order to provide a better picture this year. Last fiscal, Indian consumption grew at 13%+ in the auto sector, etc, etc, this year sales actually decreased.

Lol, I would take the Pakistani numbers with a pinch of salt. It beggars belief that when all indicators show Pakistan heading downhill, foreign reserves, domestic consumption, CAD, fiscal deficit, solvency, etc, their finance ministry releases a growth rate exceeding 5%.. This in addition to the fact that the IMF is forcing Pakistan to adopt fiscally prudent, austerity measures in exchange for their bailout packages.

 

[anonymus]

With Congress schemes like NEGERA of course there is going to be huge inflation.

They are artificially raising wages, without an equivalent increase in productivity. More wages = more demand for goods/services, and since there is no extra production, the supply remains the same. So there is no way to avoid large inflation in this scenario.

Better to not start such schemes in the first place.

@Chinese-Dragon for FM.

 

[UKBengali]

The fundamental issue why India has suffered from relatively low growth over the last 7 decades must squarely lie on the fact that it is a compromise state where nearly all need to be kept happy in order to stop it's disintegration.

Too many people are fantasising about 8%+ sustained growth and that is not simply possible given the nature of the Indian state.

With competent government it could probably manage around 7% a year sustained GDP growth. Anything else is a pure wishful thinking.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

@Chinese-Dragon for FM.

LOL no, these are just fundamental economic principles. Supply and demand.

Manmohan Singh knows them too, he is a highly intelligent economist after all.

The problem is that he doesn't dare to speak out against the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty. So in effect, his economic knowledge means nothing because he is unwilling to use it.

Put someone far less qualified in that job, and kick out the influence of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty, and I bet they will have perform a thousand times better, without being tied down by all that Nehruvian socialist BS.

 

[trident2010]

4.7% is impressive considering overall slump everywhere in the world.

 

[anonymus]

LOL no, these are just fundamental economic principles. Supply and demand.

Manmohan Singh knows them too, he is a highly intelligent economist after all.

The problem is that he doesn't dare to speak out against the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty. So in effect, his economic knowledge means nothing because he is unwilling to use it.

Put someone far less qualified in that job, and kick out the influence of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty, and I bet they will have perform a thousand times better, without being tied down by all that Nehruvian socialist BS.

Dude, that is the basic problem with Congress.

Manmohan Singh is intelligent enough;he brought India out of socialist quagmire in 1991.

The problem with India is this pseudo Gandhi family. Congressi's worship Sonia and i do not mean this figuratively but literally. They consider her a goddess and have even constructed an temple for her. Congress leader builds temple for Sonia Gandhi in Andhra Pradesh

The problem is that the greatest achievement of Sonia Gandhi, apart from marrying Rajiv has been of waiting tables in England.When she came to power in 2004 largely due to poor showing on part of BJP's allies, she formed a commitee ( NAC ) of rabid marxists and practically being an illiterate in economics, she brought in the disastrous socialist policies ( because they sound great; save the poor,kill the rich. Bla bla bla) for which we a paying today.

 

[fallstuff]

The fundamental issue why India has suffered from relatively low growth over the last 7 decades must squarely lie on the fact that it is a compromise state where nearly all need to be kept happy in order to stop it's disintegration.

Too many people are fantasising about 8%+ sustained growth and that is not simply possible given the nature of the Indian state.

With competent government it could probably manage around 7% a year sustained GDP growth. Anything else is a pure wishful thinking.

Interestingly India runs on Panchayeti, which is probably why Indian Union still exists as it does today. Indian PM/Congress knows economics and Politics well better than Modi to balance it in Administration.

Modi will have to tow the same line if he gets elected. India is not Gujrat, there are lot more moving parts in India. As we can all see Modi lately been very busy projecting himself as a uniter not a divider or as the Modi lovers call it " appeasing."

Congress vote bank ( entitlements) politics keeps the Indian Union as it is today, I seriously doubt Modi as PM will venture far away from that.

 

[ziaulislam]

Well, I am not sure why people are getting so excited about the short term. We know that the last few years have been challenging for Indian economy as they have been for several other emerging economies.

There is no need for despondency. The fundamentals remain intact. The last three decades of growth has already proven what we can do, the next three will be better if we get our act together in time.

Let's hope Modi comes to power and you will see a more purposeful India just like it was in NDA rule earlier. Unfortunately the UPA has made a hash of things.

actually this is going on for now five quaters consecutively. plus india hasnt grown remarkabley in two decades just grew above average.(for its per capita)
if india is showing sign of slowing down even before china than this is very bad news for its poor population. problem is seen in its manufacturing sector agriculture is doing good

Last post on this meaningless comparison which was never warranted.

India has grown faster in probably 15 out of the last 20 years and has almost double the par capita income as per all sources (WB/IMF/CIA). So not sure what people are imagining.

Nationhood needs much more than a single ethnicity and the least developed neighbor is a perfect example of that.

Now no more off-topic stuff and pet pathetic theories. These people have run off to countries that are accepting them only because they are happy to be multi-ethnic. Else they will be thrown out from there promptly.

sir actually india never grew in double digits doubling percapita twice in 15 years still doesnt put india even in medium earning countries like china. india needs a growth of 30-40 years in double digits just to enter medium earning list like china. but it showing signs of slow down already. that is worrying thing, even though its not facing any major challenges in or out. unlike pakistan or even china having facing political problems

 

[Vinod2070]

actually this is going on for now five quaters consecutively. plus india hasnt grown remarkabley in two decades just grew above average.(for its per capita)
if india is showing sign of slowing down even before china than this is very bad news for its poor population. problem is seen in its manufacturing sector agriculture is doing good

Well, it has been remarkable compared to much of the world. India has become the third largest economy by GDP on PPP basis during this time. It sure is a remarkable achievement

Yes, China has grown even more remarkably. Granted that.

The slowdown is there but it is there in much of the world, especially in emerging economies and India is doing better than most peers even now.

It is too early to say there has been a long term downward trend of growth rate. We have to wait for at least 3-5 more years to see that.

 

[ziaulislam]

I'm pretty sure the Indian figures have been fudged as well. The revised growth last year in order to provide a better picture this year. Last fiscal, Indian consumption grew at 13%+ in the auto sector, etc, etc, this year sales actually decreased.

Lol, I would take the Pakistani numbers with a pinch of salt. It beggars belief that when all indicators show Pakistan heading downhill, foreign reserves, domestic consumption, CAD, fiscal deficit, solvency, etc, their finance ministry releases a growth rate exceeding 5%.. This in addition to the fact that the IMF is forcing Pakistan to adopt fiscally prudent, austerity measures in exchange for their bailout packages.

dont bring pakistan into it. its nothing to do with us. it has a impact on 1.2 billion peoples especially the poor. the statement was based upon figures of pre war 2006 when we grew at 9%(before the TTP) and post war improvments with talks and TTP pwer draining down