Imran Khan Jalsa in Kasur

[Peregrine_Falcon]

 

[Peregrine_Falcon]

Jalsa Pictures and Full Speech Video

 

[war&peace]

Excellent speech...spoke like a true statesman

 

[Peregrine_Falcon]

Aerial View of Kasur Jalsa

 

[Flash_Ninja]

Huge turnout, but the focus should be on Interior Sindh, Karachi, and perhaps Baluchistan.

Punjab is too much of a PMLN stronghold for Imran Khan to make any dent. Winning the other provinces, and some seats in Punjab will give him the Prime Ministers office.

He just has to win the most seats, and as long as PMLN continues its course then there will be allot of dissatisfied independents and PMLN politicians who may look to cross the aisle.

 

[BATMAN]

Huge turnout, but the focus should be on Interior Sindh, Karachi, and perhaps Baluchistan.

Punjab is too much of a PMLN stronghold for Imran Khan to make any dent. Winning the other provinces, and some seats in Punjab will give him the Prime Ministers office.

He just has to win the most seats, and as long as PMLN continues its course then there will be allot of dissatisfied independents and PMLN politicians who may look to cross the aisle.

Correctly said... IK can't dent PMLN in Punjab, while leaving Sindh at the mercy of PPP is more than dubious.

 

[Flash_Ninja]

Correctly said... IK can't dent PMLN in Punjab, while leaving Sindh at the mercy of PPP is more than dubious.

Especially since PPP is trying to push Bilawal onto people, who is dreadfully uncharismatic and massively corrupt like his father.

Imran Khan should just give minimal directives and let PTI Punjab take over the campaign there, because I think this is a golden opportunity for PTI, but while they already have some base in Karachi, in interior Sindh they have nothing.

Also in Balochistan, poverty is rising thanks to corruption, and a lack of healthcare and education. If he holds rallies across these provinces the people will feel they aren't being neglected and vote differently.

The only reason I see him not doing this is because he could easily be assassinated, and the opposition will just claim it was separatists or Taliban or other militants. Perhaps he could build the party, recruit locals to campaign for him and show up once there is some level of support.

 

[BATMAN]

Just by winning Sindh, IK can become PM of Pakistan... i fail to understand, what exactly he's after?

 

[Peregrine_Falcon]

Just by winning Sindh, IK can become PM of Pakistan... i fail to understand, what exactly he's after?

Following is the NA seats composition:

Punjab: 148
Sindh: 61
KPK: 35
Balochistan: 14
FATA: 12
Federal Capital: 2

Total seats for all other provinces sum up to 124.Now even if Imran Khan wins 75% seats from all other provinces which's highly unlikely.Then he would not have more than 85 seats.So Imran Khan is right to focus on Punjab.

 

[BATMAN]

Following is the NA seats composition:

Punjab: 148
Sindh: 61
KPK: 35
Balochistan: 14
FATA: 12
Federal Capital: 2

Total seats for all other provinces sum up to 124.Now even if Imran Khan wins 75% from all other provinces which's highly unlikely.Then he would not have more than 85 seats

Neither N-league can win all 148 in Punjab.
If IK manage to win 75% of Sindh, 75% of KPK and 5% in Punjab... he's already a strong candidate for PM.

 

[Kabira]

Following is the NA seats composition:

Punjab: 148
Sindh: 61
KPK: 35
Balochistan: 14
FATA: 12
Federal Capital: 2

Total seats for all other provinces sum up to 124.Now even if Imran Khan wins 75% seats from all other provinces which's highly unlikely.Then he would not have more than 85 seats.

Even in 2013 where N league apparently swept elections, they won 45% of seats.

Unless every opposition and independent members decided to form grand coalition. But expecting MQM, PTI, PPP, JUI-F,Q, JI, Independents etc to unite is next to impossible.

 

[Peregrine_Falcon]

Punjab is too much of a PMLN stronghold for Imran Khan to make any dent. Winning the other provinces, and some seats in Punjab will give him the Prime Ministers office.

You are totally wrong here.People in Punjab have no other option other than PML-N and PTI now.PPP is not a player now in Punjab.PML-N might be able to maintain it's votes in Urban areas but will lose majority of it's votes in Rural Areas because 60% of Punjab's development budget is spent on Lahore and rural areas are totally ignored.Pakistan's agricultural production is constantly decreasing.

In 2013 elections majority of PTI support was from teenagers and youth most of them weren't able to cast their votes due to one reason or another.Now in this election there would be increase of atleast 20% more voters mostly youth which are more inclined towards PTI than PML-N.

This's the trend here in Pakistan that every ruling party loses alot of vote bank in next general elections because people expect much more than what they had delivered.

Many people voted for PML-N for the reason that their previous 2 governments weren't allowed to complete their terms and they were in provincial gov't not federal so let them give them a chance and see how they perform.So many such people would vote for PTI for the same reason that it hasn't been in power even once.

Panama case would have alot of dent on PML-N vote bank even if Panama Shareef wins the case.

Last but not the least, that in 2013 elections PTI lost most of the seats almost 50% just by a margin of 5% or 10% votes in Punjab.So you will see a very tough competition b/w PML-N and PTI in punjab for next elections

 

[Flash_Ninja]

You are totally wrong here.People in Punjab have no other option other than PML-N and PTI now.PPP is not a player now in Punjab.PML-N might be able to maintain it's votes in Urban areas but will lose majority of it's votes in Rural Areas because 60% of Punjab's development budget is spent on Lahore and rural areas are totally ignored.Pakistan's agricultural production is constantly decreasing.

In 2013 elections majority of PTI support was from teenagers and youth most of them weren't able to cast their votes due to one reason or another.Now in this election there would be increase of atleast 20% more voters mostly youth which are more inclined towards PTI than PML-N.

This's the trend here in Pakistan that every ruling party loses alot of vote bank in next general elections because people expect much more than what they had delivered.

Many people voted for PML-N for the reason that their previous 2 governments weren't allowed to complete their terms and they were in provincial gov't not federal so let them give them a chance and see how they perform.So many such people would vote for PTI for the same reason that it hasn't been in power even once.

Panama case would have alot of dent on PML-N vote bank even if Panama Shareef wins the case.

Last but not the least, that in 2013 elections PTI lost most of the seats almost 50% just by a margin of 5% or 10% votes in Punjab.So you will see a very tough competition b/w PML-N and PTI in punjab for next elections

Good point, but as I pointed out the urban vote almost always results in PMLN winning, and in almost every by-election we see PMLN's vote bank significantly increase. Of course this can also depend on the specific candidate for instance after the D.G Khan by-election, after Sardar Zulfiqar Ali Khan Khosa evacuated his seat PTI was able to steal it from them relatively easily.

Of course 60 percent of Punjab's population is rural, and as we've seen agricultural exports are down and electrical supply has gotten worse since the Musharraf Era, on the other hand development has seen an uptick particularly in rural areas around Rawalpindi and Lahore where infrastructure such as roads and power lines, as well as police stations and healthcare facilities have been built. I say this from personal experience because most of my family belong to such rural areas and through their eyes PMLN has done a lot of good. This may be due to the long stability of the Musharraf era, and the neglect they faced under PPP, so what they may not realise is that the PMLN government is in reality performing very badly.

There is also the case of PMLN propaganda which portrays the alternative, PTI and Imran Khan, as Taliban sympathizers who lie about all their achievements or have stolen policies previously implemented by PMLN. In this case they will see voting PMLN as a 'necessary evil' to prevent a much worse fate under the alternatives PPP or PTI.

PTI Punjab should campaign for the rural vote rather than the large population centers, utilizing a platform of social development and agricultural subsidies, but I wouldn't hold my breath for PTI sweeping Punjab and looking at the data while its possible they'll take a few rural seats, its far more likely they'll lose several key urban seats.

This is why I say they campaign in Sindh and Baluchistan, where the people feel neglected and feel that there is no party out there looking out for them. For this reason alone it would be much easier to 'steal' these rural seats than in Punjab where there has been some degree of development in northern and eastern areas.

We know the power that even visiting impoverished areas can do, in fact its been acknowledged that the reason Donald Trump was able to win so many states was due to the fact that he took the time to campaign in many Midwestern rural areas whereas Hilary focused on large population centres like Los Angeles and New York, meaning the people much rather vote for someone who actually took the time to visit them than a career politician that sees them as just another statistic.

 

[Lavrentiy]

Neither N-league can win all 148 in Punjab.
If IK manage to win 75% of Sindh, 75% of KPK and 5% in Punjab... he's already a strong candidate for PM.

75% of Sindh and 75% of KPK is not gonna happen even in an alternate universe.
5-10% of Punjab is a reasonable estimate.