IMPACT OF GROWING CHINESE INFLUENCE ON THE SECURITY
OF THE SOUTH ASIAN REGION
Lieutenant Colonel Mizanur Rahman Mizan, psc
ABSTRACT
The South Asian Region covers a huge area with more than one fifth of the world
population. There are approximately nine developing and under-developed countries in
this part of the globe. It also forms the crossing point of East and West civilization. Most
of the countries of this region have an excellent economic growth because of impressive
performance by the services sector and the industrial sector. South Asian Region is also
moderately rich in mineral resources. Lack of technological proficiency and huge
operating cost has made it possible for this region to retain a sizeable mineral stock
unexplored and within easy reach. This has made the South Asian Region as the centre of
gravity where all the great powers, including China, would be vying to consolidate their
reach and influence in the future days to come. China is trying to strengthen its ties with
all South Asian Countries and enhance cooperation in vast fields. The main security
concern in South Asian Region is the prospect of war between India and Pakistan, which
might escalate into a nuclear exchange. Besides, there are other issues like global
terrorism, water sharing, insurgency and energy crisis. It is evident that China with its
rapid economic growth associated with expansionist foreign policy might try to pursue
her strategic ambition of becoming major global player. This might override USA’s as
well as India’s influence, and create huge pressure on South Asian Region. China’s long
lasting desire to get an access in the Indian Ocean and presence of USA troops in
Afghanistan will further destabilize the region. China and India relation has the
potentiality to bring wonderful result for the peace and security of the region. On the
other hand, if they stand against each other, then the consequences will be devastating.
This paper will primarily cover growing role of China towards South Asian Region and
the impact of Chinese influence on the security situation of the region.
INTRODUCTION
China is steadily extending its reach into South Asia with its growing economic and
strategic influence in the region. Except for New Delhi, Beijing runs trade surpluses with
all other partners, including Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. But China
makes up for these trade deficits with massive investment in the infrastructural
development, socio-economic needs, and above all energy production of its trade
partners. Beijing also showers these nations with low-cost financial capital to help their
struggling development sectors. The largest beneficiaries of this economic aid are
Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Nepal.
In keeping with its economic expansion, China has deepened its strategic influence in
the region, especially with India's immediate neighbours – Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan,
and Sri Lanka. Beijing has kept a close strategic partnership with Islamabad for a long
Impact of Growing Chinese...
time, but its overtures to the remaining countries were hobbled by the Sino-Indian war in
1962. China's entrée in South Asia again got momentum only after its conversion to the
market economy in the 1980s. Its resultant economic strength opened the path into South
Asia, beyond Pakistan. China skillfully deployed economic incentives to draw
Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka into its strategic orbit.
The triangular strategic relationship of India, Pakistan and China over the second half
of the twentieth century shows how two enmities – Sino-Indian and Indo-Pakistani – and
one friendship – Sino-Pakistani – defined the distribution of power and the patterns of
relationships in a major centre of gravity of international conflict. This rising tension and
turbulence has forced the South Asian Region almost in a near war situation. On the other
hand, China is emerging as a military super power with a strong economic backup in this
region. This may ultimately push China to get involved in the security issues and their
settlements within the countries of this region. Therefore, the aim of the paper is to
analyze the impact of Chinese growing influence on the security of the South Asian
Region.
IMPORTANCE OF SOUTH ASIA
After the end of Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union, assessment of the
influence of changing international environment became a very controversial problem in
South Asia. In the recent days, China is not only facing the challenges of global
technological revolution but also a global competition over comprehensive national
strength which is based on economy and science. The focus of the post-Cold War
maritime activity is also shifted from the Atlantic – Pacific to the Pacific – Indian region.
Unexplored mineral resources, very fast economic growth, rise of radical Islamists and
strategic position of being into close proximity of Indian Ocean are some of the other
reasons, for which the region is so important to everyone around the globe. This has
made the South Asian regional sphere as the centre of gravity, where all the great powers,
including China, would be vying to consolidate their reach and influence in the future
days to come.
SECURITY ENVIRONMENT OF SOUTH ASIAN REGION
Security is a prime concern of every state either big or small. Security is essentially a
matter of perception. Traditionally, security meant the defence of the state and society
against internal and external threats. The security outlook of a nation is built up largely
on how and where it perceives the threats. Security perspective of a nation is, of course,
the geo-strategic imperatives and geo-political environment in which it has to be
operated. To summarize, there are four major factors that shape a state’s security
environment: geographical barriers, state-to-state interaction, international/regional
structure, and military technology. South Asian Region has long been steeped into
mutual suspicions and conflict. It follows a traditional inward approach to the
development and is a latecomer to the concept of regional integration. These factors have
kept the region in low-growth equilibrium for a long time.
Mirpur Papers, Volume 23, Issue 26, October 2017
The security concerns in South Asia are threefold. Firstly, the prospect of a war
between India and Pakistan as they fought major war in 1965 and 1971, and small scale
war in Kargill in 1999. India and China also fought a major war in 1962, where China
captured a significant amount of Indian Territory. Recent tension in Doklam between
Indian and Chinese Forces is also significant in this regard. Secondly, as R. Nicholas
Burns, former US Under Secretary for Political Affairs puts it, “it is in South Asia where
our future success in the struggle against global terrorism will likely be decided – in
Afghanistan and Pakistan”. Along with this Global War on Terror (GWOT) there have
been Anglo-American efforts to defuse the Indo-Pak tensions over Kashmir, the
Norwegian mediation between the Sinhalese and Tamils in Sri Lanka, and the
international initiative on Nepal led by Britain. Finally, in the aftermath of Chaghai Hill
explosions in Pakistan, acquisition of small nuclear devices by terrorists came within the
realm of possibility. Further, revelations of Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan’s role in nuclear
trafficking to North Korea have escalated concerns on nuclear proliferation from the
region. However, the most important security concern for the South Asian Region is
conflict between or among the countries.
CHINESE NATIONAL INTEREST AND FOREIGN POLICY
China always maintained a peaceful foreign policy while pursuing own strategic aim.
Although, they are fighting for the super power status with enormous strength in every
arena yet, they have their own weaknesses which still create turbulences to their dream.
When analyzing China’s foreign and security policy, Chinese strategists and analysts
occasionally cite guidance from former paramount leader Deng Xiaoping in the early
1990s: “Observe calmly; secure our position; cope with affairs calmly; hide our
capacities and bide our time; be good at maintaining a low profile; and never claim
leadership.” This guidance reflected Deng’s belief that China’s foreign policy and
security strategy had to reinforce its core national interest of promoting domestic
development by avoiding foreign risk, high-profile international engagement or
provocations, or pretenses of international leadership.
Some analysts see Deng’s guidance as prescribing deliberate efforts to conceal
intentions and capabilities. Their way of dealing with the South Asian internal affairs are
quite interesting and thought provoking. They have far reaching strategic objectives to be
achieved without destabilizing the regional peace and stability. Therefore, most of their
regional roles are apparently constructive with their own terminal strategic goals behind
the curtain. China will continue to seek a peaceful peripheral environment in the near
future. China’s guiding doctrine of limited war under high-tech conditions involves
offensive perspectives. Contentious issues between India and China would be Tibet,
Dalai Lama’s presence and the Sino-Pak nexus. However, the economic issues will get
priority over all other mid to long-term issues within the region.
China’s Grand Strategy gets manifested in the harnessing of the entire Chinese might
and resources towards achievement of two basic national aspirations, which are assessed
Impact of Growing Chinese...
as, first China should emerge as the dominant power in Asia and secondly China should
emerge as key global player initially and to be followed by stepping into the role of a
dominant world player. Besides, the principal Chinese goal is to prevent the rise of any
peer competitor or rival in Asia, capable of challenging China’s role in the Asia-Pacific
region. It particularly seeks to keep India’s power and influence confined within its
borders, and to enhance China’s influence in South Asia. In this regard the smaller South
Asian Countries could play an important role in promoting Chinese interests in the
emerging regional order.
According to Indian Scholar Dr Subhash Kapila, China’s Grand Strategy in South
Asia has manifested itself at multiple levels, namely: (1) Building up Pakistan as regional
spoiler state to challenge India (2) Attempted to create a ring of Chinese military
equipment client states around India (3) Entering into Defence Cooperation Agreement
with Pakistan and Bangladesh (4) Generating insurgencies in India’s North East
Peripheries (5) Creating potential Chinese Naval Bases in Myanmar and Pakistan. The
list is endless and the aim being simple i.e. to keep India strategically destabilized and
politically confined to South Asia.
China had always maintained the intention of regaining the lost territories as its
priority objectives of the foreign policy. In the Chinese mind, China’s territorial claims
are often linked with its humiliating past and, therefore related to national dignity.
Military conflicts with Vietnam in 1974 and 1988 to recapture disputed Spartly islands
demonstrate China’s resolve to use force if required. It is important to note that dynamics
of the international environment will continue to influence the Chinese foreign policy.
Though the Chinese foreign policy will continue to be governed by the peaceful coexistence, yet she will keep all probable options open to reinforce its aspirations for a
great power status. Currently, the following basic tenets have been identified in Chinese
foreign policy:
a. China's fundamental desire is to reform and grow in economic strength by
opening up peacefully and with full control.
b. China now openly pursues her long term interests. She is sensitive to issues such
as human rights and Taiwan, which form the basis of potential intervention and
manipulation by external forces.
c. China will not hesitate to use military force to back her foreign policy wherever
she perceives weakness. This is amply clear from her annexation of the Spratleys and
confrontation in the Strait of Taiwan.
rned, China is following a realistic and
pragmatic approach in that long-standing disputes should not hinder the economic
ties and other fruitful interaction. China intends to settle these issues at a later
convenient time-frame.
IMPACT OF CHINESE INFLUENCE ON SECURITY OF SOUTH ASIA
Economic Challenges
China emphasized repeatedly that its trade policy was not and won’t be to pursue
enormous profits, but the truth is that the trade imbalance favourable to China had been a
worldwide phenomenon. So called theory of “Chinese Threats” originated in somewhere
between Tokyo and Washington echoed in some distant countries, it was not because of
their territories were threatened by Chinese strengthened military power, but for their
local markets being occupied by Chinese products too fast and too vast. China’s official
policy to political issues is always self-controlled and encourages the stability of the
region by showing its peaceful and moderate intension. But, in trade arena, Chinese
enterprises usually conduct ambitiously and offensively.
China’s economic growth and wealth has decreased the incentives for it to engage in
conflict with its South Asian neighbours. Similarly, India’s liberalization and growth has
led its leaders to accept the same conclusion. China and India are currently addressing
their challenges with very similar programs that are meant to propel their economies and
strengthen their militaries. Both China and India are focused on modernizing and
developing their economies to integrate more closely with the rest of the world. All these
facts indicate that in near future there is a possibility of growing tension between these
two countries for the control of the regional market.
One of the main focuses of China is to have access to the important sea lanes of
communication of South Asia. Other than the regional countries, Myanmar remains as an
alternative and effective option for China to get access to the Indian Ocean. It is noticed
that Myanmar also receives special attention from China in a big way like Pakistan.
Therefore, it may be concluded that China is fast emerging as an active player in the
Indian Ocean through Myanmar. In such a scenario, in case China establishes its
“permanent presence” in the Bay of Bengal in near future, then it is likely to have a
serious ramification to the security of the region.
Re-emergence of Cold War Era
On the military side, it is mostly from China that the USA apprehends a real
challenge to its lone super power status in the future. As a race is on, the rhetoric of the
‘strategic partnership’ is fast changing to ‘strategic competitor’. The latest US
Quadrennial Defence Review Report (DOD) says that Asia is, “gradually emerging as a
region susceptible to large scale military competition”. It further writes (without
mentioning China) that, “a military competitor with a formidable base will appear”.
Moreover, the 1988 security strategy for East Asia-Pacific underscores the bilateral
partnership with Japan that remains the linchpin of US security in Asia. The absence of
US forces in this region might give rise to India and Japan’s militarization which could
ultimately intensify the armament race between China-India and China-Japan. All these
clearly show the signs of a new Cold War era.
Impact of Growing Chinese...
China considers that the key to maintain peace and stability in this region is by
building a triangular relationship with India and United States. J Mohan Malik, an
eminent strategist from India, adds to this by saying that, over the next decade, a serious
context both in the military and economic spheres will develop between China and India.
India and China both will counter each other in South and South East Asia. USA, on the
other hand, will always try to cherish her unipolar status using India against China as a
counterbalancing measure. Recently, China is also rapidly increasing military spending
yet, it has to go far to keep pace with giant military budget of USA. China has already
established its first foreign base in Djibouti, Africa. There is also report that China is
going to establish its second military base in Pakistan soon. It speaks of the possibility of
Chinese arsenal expansion for the pursuance of her long term strategic goals and political
influence leading to an indirect confrontation with USA. This would definitely create
turmoil in the regional stability.
Impact of Chinese Military Modernization Trends
The Chinese military is the largest in Asia, though not the most modern. This is
partially overcome by China’s nuclear weapons and missile programs, which gave it an
edge in Asian strategic context. It is a major military power and a significant factor in the
security calculations of the South Asian nations with a direct impact on their military
expenditure and modernization programs (Refer Figure below).
Source: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) Yearbook 2007
Chinese military modernization trends have the following implications for the South
Asian countries:
a. As China’s military capability increases, so does the regional anxiety about its
intentions. The force modernization programs when combined with long outstanding
territorial disputes raise concern over the stability of the region.
b. As military capability increases, so does possibility of a conflict because China
may feel that she has the capability to press for her claims.
c. China’s modernization of its Navy (including aircraft carrier and logistic base
in Djibouti) indicates her will to extend the blue water capability with adequate
power projection potentialities.
China-India in a New Context of “Chindia” and Its Impact
“21st Century belongs to Asia”, in late 1990s, such prophesy may be regarded as an
over optimistic view about Asia ‘Rise-up’. But now-a-days the mass media says that,
“21st Century is Asian Century”. Over last 25 years, since the collapse of Soviet Union,
the most influential international event is Asia’s “Rise-up”. In this regard, the most
outstanding parts of the region were China and India. Now the most critical issue is how
China and India handle their relationship in the regional perspective. The regional and
global peace and prosperity in coming years will mainly depend on their mutual trust
motive. The Chinese relation with India is the core in the chain of relationship between
China and South Asia. The former not only inhibited the latter, but also models the
structure of the South Asian regional system. However, China’s assistance to Pakistan to
develop nuclear and missile technology, in addition to being Islamabad’s biggest supplier
of conventional military weapons, is an obstacle to building trust between China and
India.
There is a possibility of a wonderful regional stability and harmony if China and
India peacefully rise up together to manage the regional affairs. On the other hand, if
China and India become active rivals and try to contain each other, then the consequences
will be pathetic for the entire region. To analyze these two possibilities, it is important to
look from two different perspectives. Firstly, the capabilities of China and India to make
the blueprint of Chindia come true. Secondly, the willingness of China and India to
pursue for Chindia in the long run which may be much more crucial issue. It is not
possible for these two countries to set up a very close relation even fuse their names
together just based on their respects for each other’s ancient civilization or marvelous
economic miracle. They need more convincing reasons, usually the shared interests over
vast issues.
Sino-Pakistan Strategic Partnership and Future
China is Pakistan's largest defense supplier. On the other hand, China views Pakistan
as a useful counterweight to Indian power in this region. China has helped Pakistan in
building two nuclear reactors at the Chasma site in the Punjab Province and provided
Pakistan with nuclear technology. China helped Pakistan develop a deep sea port at
Gwadar. Establishment of exclusive China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to
connect China with Gwador Deep Sea Port of Pakistan is another sign of strong ties
between Pakistan and China. All these issues might add fuel to the ancient rivalry
Impact of Growing Chinese...
between India and Pakistan. If this happens, both the countries might even seek for a
nuclear solution in the worst case.
Another source of tension was the issue of rising Islamic extremism in Pakistan and
the ability of Chinese Uighur separatists to receive sanctuary and training among other
radical Islamist groups in Pakistani territory. Pakistan in recent years has begun to clamp
down on Uighur settlements and on religious schools used as training grounds for
militant Islamists. Thus, Pakistan proved its sincerity in helping China to control Islamic
separatism in Xinjiang Province. As such Sino-Pakistan strategic partnership is a time
tested one and may likely to continue in near future, especially to contain India in the
region.
Possibilities of Chinese Hegemony
The primary goal of China will be the maintenance of a moderately high rate of
economic growth and attainment of a big power status. China will carefully watch the
future military postures of the US, India and other regional players in Asia. China’s
National Defense in 2008 states that China will never seek hegemony or engage in
military expansion now or in future, no matter how developed it becomes. But, as
China’s global interests and influence have expanded in recent years, its diplomatic and
military presence and engagement have become more visible and active to the world. In
the past China used military power on several occasions to establish its claim. It is also
unique among the great powers in having territorial dispute with virtually all its
neighbours. Therefore, a major question would be "will a strong and powerful China be
tempted to project its military power outside its borders and overseas?" It is said that
when nations are weak, they cite principles, when they are strong, they invoke artillery.
This dictum might come true for economically prosperous and militarily powerful China
in the near future.
It is evident that China with its rapid economic growth associated with an
expansionist foreign policy might try to pursue her ambition. This will create a huge
pressure on the South Asian Region. On the top, there are two more issues. Firstly,
China’s long lasting desire to get an access in the Indian Ocean for economic and
strategic reason. Secondly, presence of US troops in Afghanistan. At present Chinese
military is not in a position to mount a seizure of the entire region due to her economic
goals. But, this is also a fact that, it is alone China who has an overwhelming influence
over this region. The future non-involvement of the US in the regional disputes and the
inability of the Indians and the South Asian nations to singly or collectively stand up
against China may lower the economic cost of expansion and thus be an additional
motivating factor towards Chinese expansionism policy.
South Asian Perceptions of Powerful China
What does powerful China imply for the South Asian Region? Will China be a threat
or a constructive partner to the South Asian Nations? Following its take-over of Tibet,
China became an integral part of the South Asian geopolitical and strategic environment.
China’s present good relation with the neighbours of India has ensured her strong
footholds in South Asia. Except India, most of the other South Asian Countries do not see
the Chinese growing influence as a threat to their security. It is quite difficult to find antiChinese sentiments in most of the South Asian countries; Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal,
Sri Lanka and Maldives, which are all on good terms with China. The smaller South
Asian Countries do not have any border disputes with China, nor are they affected
adversely by its military power. They are also not concerned at the growing power and
stature of China in the region and beyond. Rather they welcome the growth of China’s
overall power and role.
In the foreseeable future, China and India, the two economic giants of the region,
would like to maintain status quo in order to gain time to modernize their economy and
military. However, the twenty-first century is likely to see a power struggle between
China and India. There will be conflict of interests between the two giants unless their
power competition is managed carefully. While they are potential competitors for power
and influence in Asia, China and India also share common interests in exploiting
economic opportunities, exploring new markets, and enhancing regional trade and cooperation. Unless and until a genuine attempt is made to resolve contentious issues
amicably, the future of Sino–Indian relation remains uncertain. In the short term, both
countries are likely to pursue peaceful ties, while they engage in modernization and
management of their internal security and political challenges. However, relations in the
medium to longer term are uncertain, and could again become tense.
Sino-Indian relations could become increasingly competitive or even confrontational
if China begins to pursue its major territorial claims against India, if its commitment
towards peaceful resolution of disputes diminishes, or if the political situation in Tibet
gets out of control. In the medium to longer run, China, being the most powerful state in
India’s neighbourhood, could directly affect India’s security, diplomacy, economy and
politics. When China poses a security challenge, strengthens India’s adversaries, or
assumes hegemonic tendencies, it would be a major factor of concern for India. The longterm requirement of India will be to match China’s strategic challenge in the region and
develop adequate military capabilities to meet the threat from China. With China
persisting in its military modernisation, India and consequently Pakistan and other states
in the region will need to maintain their defence modernisation so as not to create any
serious imbalance in conventional power. Thus, the continuous military modernisation of
China and India will increase the speed of arms race in South Asia.
CONCLUSIONS
Beside China, three extra-regional powers, the USA, Japan and Russia, would have
varying degree of interests in South Asia, of which the role of the USA would be
prominent. USA intends to enhance its engagement with India, Pakistan and China to
maintain balance of power in South Asia. China is expected to become increasingly
active and assertive in South Asia and in the Indian Ocean Region. India would try to
take necessary steps to match China so as to thwart any negative fall-out to its security.
India is, therefore, likely to go for close defence ties with USA, Russia and Japan in order
to create appropriate conditions for future contingencies. In the Asian security
environment, USA, China and India may be considered as the constituents of the balance
of power in South Asia. Owing to its location, growing power and involvement, China
will be a major factor in determining the nature and profile of South Asian security.
Given the increasing global interest in South Asian affairs and also given China’s steady
movement towards becoming the next superpower of the twenty-first century, the Chinaconnection of South Asian security is very likely to increase in the coming decades. In
fact, economically and militarily powerful China would shape in a major way the balance
of power and security environment of South Asia.
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Lieutenant Colonel Mizanur Rahman Mizan was commissioned
with 32 BMA Long Course in the regiment of Artillery on 16 June
1995. Lieutenant Colonel Mizan commanded two field regiment
artillery units; 6 Field Regiment Artillery and newly raised 18 Field
Regiment Artillery. He served as instructor in School of Military
Intelligence (SMI), Comilla. He also served in Chittagong Hill Tracts
(CHT) for counter insurgency operations. Beside different courses at
home, he attended Intelligence Course at UK and, UN CIMCoord
Course basic level at Kenya and advance level at Switzerland (both under UN OCHA,
Switzerland), leading to be a graduate of UN CIMCoord. He is a graduate of Defence
Services Command and Staff College (DSCSC), Mirpur, Bangladesh and Armed Forces’
Staff College (MTAT), Kualalumpur, Malaysia. He participated in United Nations Peace
Keeping Operation as a Company Commander in Ivory Coast (UNOCI) and Staff Officer
in Mission HQ in Darfur (UNAMID). He completed Post Graduate Diploma in Strategic
Studies with distinction from University of Malaya, Malaysia. He also completed BSc in
Computer Science and Engineering (CSE) from Military Institute of Science and
Technology (MIST) and MSc in Military Studies from Bangladesh University of
professionals (BUP). He is now a PhD fellow in Government and Politics Department of
Jahangirnagar University. Presently, he is serving as a Directing Staff in the Defence
Services Command and Staff College, Mirpur Cantonment, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
OF THE SOUTH ASIAN REGION
Lieutenant Colonel Mizanur Rahman Mizan, psc
ABSTRACT
The South Asian Region covers a huge area with more than one fifth of the world
population. There are approximately nine developing and under-developed countries in
this part of the globe. It also forms the crossing point of East and West civilization. Most
of the countries of this region have an excellent economic growth because of impressive
performance by the services sector and the industrial sector. South Asian Region is also
moderately rich in mineral resources. Lack of technological proficiency and huge
operating cost has made it possible for this region to retain a sizeable mineral stock
unexplored and within easy reach. This has made the South Asian Region as the centre of
gravity where all the great powers, including China, would be vying to consolidate their
reach and influence in the future days to come. China is trying to strengthen its ties with
all South Asian Countries and enhance cooperation in vast fields. The main security
concern in South Asian Region is the prospect of war between India and Pakistan, which
might escalate into a nuclear exchange. Besides, there are other issues like global
terrorism, water sharing, insurgency and energy crisis. It is evident that China with its
rapid economic growth associated with expansionist foreign policy might try to pursue
her strategic ambition of becoming major global player. This might override USA’s as
well as India’s influence, and create huge pressure on South Asian Region. China’s long
lasting desire to get an access in the Indian Ocean and presence of USA troops in
Afghanistan will further destabilize the region. China and India relation has the
potentiality to bring wonderful result for the peace and security of the region. On the
other hand, if they stand against each other, then the consequences will be devastating.
This paper will primarily cover growing role of China towards South Asian Region and
the impact of Chinese influence on the security situation of the region.
INTRODUCTION
China is steadily extending its reach into South Asia with its growing economic and
strategic influence in the region. Except for New Delhi, Beijing runs trade surpluses with
all other partners, including Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. But China
makes up for these trade deficits with massive investment in the infrastructural
development, socio-economic needs, and above all energy production of its trade
partners. Beijing also showers these nations with low-cost financial capital to help their
struggling development sectors. The largest beneficiaries of this economic aid are
Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Nepal.
In keeping with its economic expansion, China has deepened its strategic influence in
the region, especially with India's immediate neighbours – Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan,
and Sri Lanka. Beijing has kept a close strategic partnership with Islamabad for a long
Impact of Growing Chinese...
time, but its overtures to the remaining countries were hobbled by the Sino-Indian war in
1962. China's entrée in South Asia again got momentum only after its conversion to the
market economy in the 1980s. Its resultant economic strength opened the path into South
Asia, beyond Pakistan. China skillfully deployed economic incentives to draw
Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka into its strategic orbit.
The triangular strategic relationship of India, Pakistan and China over the second half
of the twentieth century shows how two enmities – Sino-Indian and Indo-Pakistani – and
one friendship – Sino-Pakistani – defined the distribution of power and the patterns of
relationships in a major centre of gravity of international conflict. This rising tension and
turbulence has forced the South Asian Region almost in a near war situation. On the other
hand, China is emerging as a military super power with a strong economic backup in this
region. This may ultimately push China to get involved in the security issues and their
settlements within the countries of this region. Therefore, the aim of the paper is to
analyze the impact of Chinese growing influence on the security of the South Asian
Region.
IMPORTANCE OF SOUTH ASIA
After the end of Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union, assessment of the
influence of changing international environment became a very controversial problem in
South Asia. In the recent days, China is not only facing the challenges of global
technological revolution but also a global competition over comprehensive national
strength which is based on economy and science. The focus of the post-Cold War
maritime activity is also shifted from the Atlantic – Pacific to the Pacific – Indian region.
Unexplored mineral resources, very fast economic growth, rise of radical Islamists and
strategic position of being into close proximity of Indian Ocean are some of the other
reasons, for which the region is so important to everyone around the globe. This has
made the South Asian regional sphere as the centre of gravity, where all the great powers,
including China, would be vying to consolidate their reach and influence in the future
days to come.
SECURITY ENVIRONMENT OF SOUTH ASIAN REGION
Security is a prime concern of every state either big or small. Security is essentially a
matter of perception. Traditionally, security meant the defence of the state and society
against internal and external threats. The security outlook of a nation is built up largely
on how and where it perceives the threats. Security perspective of a nation is, of course,
the geo-strategic imperatives and geo-political environment in which it has to be
operated. To summarize, there are four major factors that shape a state’s security
environment: geographical barriers, state-to-state interaction, international/regional
structure, and military technology. South Asian Region has long been steeped into
mutual suspicions and conflict. It follows a traditional inward approach to the
development and is a latecomer to the concept of regional integration. These factors have
kept the region in low-growth equilibrium for a long time.
Mirpur Papers, Volume 23, Issue 26, October 2017
The security concerns in South Asia are threefold. Firstly, the prospect of a war
between India and Pakistan as they fought major war in 1965 and 1971, and small scale
war in Kargill in 1999. India and China also fought a major war in 1962, where China
captured a significant amount of Indian Territory. Recent tension in Doklam between
Indian and Chinese Forces is also significant in this regard. Secondly, as R. Nicholas
Burns, former US Under Secretary for Political Affairs puts it, “it is in South Asia where
our future success in the struggle against global terrorism will likely be decided – in
Afghanistan and Pakistan”. Along with this Global War on Terror (GWOT) there have
been Anglo-American efforts to defuse the Indo-Pak tensions over Kashmir, the
Norwegian mediation between the Sinhalese and Tamils in Sri Lanka, and the
international initiative on Nepal led by Britain. Finally, in the aftermath of Chaghai Hill
explosions in Pakistan, acquisition of small nuclear devices by terrorists came within the
realm of possibility. Further, revelations of Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan’s role in nuclear
trafficking to North Korea have escalated concerns on nuclear proliferation from the
region. However, the most important security concern for the South Asian Region is
conflict between or among the countries.
CHINESE NATIONAL INTEREST AND FOREIGN POLICY
China always maintained a peaceful foreign policy while pursuing own strategic aim.
Although, they are fighting for the super power status with enormous strength in every
arena yet, they have their own weaknesses which still create turbulences to their dream.
When analyzing China’s foreign and security policy, Chinese strategists and analysts
occasionally cite guidance from former paramount leader Deng Xiaoping in the early
1990s: “Observe calmly; secure our position; cope with affairs calmly; hide our
capacities and bide our time; be good at maintaining a low profile; and never claim
leadership.” This guidance reflected Deng’s belief that China’s foreign policy and
security strategy had to reinforce its core national interest of promoting domestic
development by avoiding foreign risk, high-profile international engagement or
provocations, or pretenses of international leadership.
Some analysts see Deng’s guidance as prescribing deliberate efforts to conceal
intentions and capabilities. Their way of dealing with the South Asian internal affairs are
quite interesting and thought provoking. They have far reaching strategic objectives to be
achieved without destabilizing the regional peace and stability. Therefore, most of their
regional roles are apparently constructive with their own terminal strategic goals behind
the curtain. China will continue to seek a peaceful peripheral environment in the near
future. China’s guiding doctrine of limited war under high-tech conditions involves
offensive perspectives. Contentious issues between India and China would be Tibet,
Dalai Lama’s presence and the Sino-Pak nexus. However, the economic issues will get
priority over all other mid to long-term issues within the region.
China’s Grand Strategy gets manifested in the harnessing of the entire Chinese might
and resources towards achievement of two basic national aspirations, which are assessed
Impact of Growing Chinese...
as, first China should emerge as the dominant power in Asia and secondly China should
emerge as key global player initially and to be followed by stepping into the role of a
dominant world player. Besides, the principal Chinese goal is to prevent the rise of any
peer competitor or rival in Asia, capable of challenging China’s role in the Asia-Pacific
region. It particularly seeks to keep India’s power and influence confined within its
borders, and to enhance China’s influence in South Asia. In this regard the smaller South
Asian Countries could play an important role in promoting Chinese interests in the
emerging regional order.
According to Indian Scholar Dr Subhash Kapila, China’s Grand Strategy in South
Asia has manifested itself at multiple levels, namely: (1) Building up Pakistan as regional
spoiler state to challenge India (2) Attempted to create a ring of Chinese military
equipment client states around India (3) Entering into Defence Cooperation Agreement
with Pakistan and Bangladesh (4) Generating insurgencies in India’s North East
Peripheries (5) Creating potential Chinese Naval Bases in Myanmar and Pakistan. The
list is endless and the aim being simple i.e. to keep India strategically destabilized and
politically confined to South Asia.
China had always maintained the intention of regaining the lost territories as its
priority objectives of the foreign policy. In the Chinese mind, China’s territorial claims
are often linked with its humiliating past and, therefore related to national dignity.
Military conflicts with Vietnam in 1974 and 1988 to recapture disputed Spartly islands
demonstrate China’s resolve to use force if required. It is important to note that dynamics
of the international environment will continue to influence the Chinese foreign policy.
Though the Chinese foreign policy will continue to be governed by the peaceful coexistence, yet she will keep all probable options open to reinforce its aspirations for a
great power status. Currently, the following basic tenets have been identified in Chinese
foreign policy:
a. China's fundamental desire is to reform and grow in economic strength by
opening up peacefully and with full control.
b. China now openly pursues her long term interests. She is sensitive to issues such
as human rights and Taiwan, which form the basis of potential intervention and
manipulation by external forces.
c. China will not hesitate to use military force to back her foreign policy wherever
she perceives weakness. This is amply clear from her annexation of the Spratleys and
confrontation in the Strait of Taiwan.
rned, China is following a realistic and
pragmatic approach in that long-standing disputes should not hinder the economic
ties and other fruitful interaction. China intends to settle these issues at a later
convenient time-frame.
IMPACT OF CHINESE INFLUENCE ON SECURITY OF SOUTH ASIA
Economic Challenges
China emphasized repeatedly that its trade policy was not and won’t be to pursue
enormous profits, but the truth is that the trade imbalance favourable to China had been a
worldwide phenomenon. So called theory of “Chinese Threats” originated in somewhere
between Tokyo and Washington echoed in some distant countries, it was not because of
their territories were threatened by Chinese strengthened military power, but for their
local markets being occupied by Chinese products too fast and too vast. China’s official
policy to political issues is always self-controlled and encourages the stability of the
region by showing its peaceful and moderate intension. But, in trade arena, Chinese
enterprises usually conduct ambitiously and offensively.
China’s economic growth and wealth has decreased the incentives for it to engage in
conflict with its South Asian neighbours. Similarly, India’s liberalization and growth has
led its leaders to accept the same conclusion. China and India are currently addressing
their challenges with very similar programs that are meant to propel their economies and
strengthen their militaries. Both China and India are focused on modernizing and
developing their economies to integrate more closely with the rest of the world. All these
facts indicate that in near future there is a possibility of growing tension between these
two countries for the control of the regional market.
One of the main focuses of China is to have access to the important sea lanes of
communication of South Asia. Other than the regional countries, Myanmar remains as an
alternative and effective option for China to get access to the Indian Ocean. It is noticed
that Myanmar also receives special attention from China in a big way like Pakistan.
Therefore, it may be concluded that China is fast emerging as an active player in the
Indian Ocean through Myanmar. In such a scenario, in case China establishes its
“permanent presence” in the Bay of Bengal in near future, then it is likely to have a
serious ramification to the security of the region.
Re-emergence of Cold War Era
On the military side, it is mostly from China that the USA apprehends a real
challenge to its lone super power status in the future. As a race is on, the rhetoric of the
‘strategic partnership’ is fast changing to ‘strategic competitor’. The latest US
Quadrennial Defence Review Report (DOD) says that Asia is, “gradually emerging as a
region susceptible to large scale military competition”. It further writes (without
mentioning China) that, “a military competitor with a formidable base will appear”.
Moreover, the 1988 security strategy for East Asia-Pacific underscores the bilateral
partnership with Japan that remains the linchpin of US security in Asia. The absence of
US forces in this region might give rise to India and Japan’s militarization which could
ultimately intensify the armament race between China-India and China-Japan. All these
clearly show the signs of a new Cold War era.
Impact of Growing Chinese...
China considers that the key to maintain peace and stability in this region is by
building a triangular relationship with India and United States. J Mohan Malik, an
eminent strategist from India, adds to this by saying that, over the next decade, a serious
context both in the military and economic spheres will develop between China and India.
India and China both will counter each other in South and South East Asia. USA, on the
other hand, will always try to cherish her unipolar status using India against China as a
counterbalancing measure. Recently, China is also rapidly increasing military spending
yet, it has to go far to keep pace with giant military budget of USA. China has already
established its first foreign base in Djibouti, Africa. There is also report that China is
going to establish its second military base in Pakistan soon. It speaks of the possibility of
Chinese arsenal expansion for the pursuance of her long term strategic goals and political
influence leading to an indirect confrontation with USA. This would definitely create
turmoil in the regional stability.
Impact of Chinese Military Modernization Trends
The Chinese military is the largest in Asia, though not the most modern. This is
partially overcome by China’s nuclear weapons and missile programs, which gave it an
edge in Asian strategic context. It is a major military power and a significant factor in the
security calculations of the South Asian nations with a direct impact on their military
expenditure and modernization programs (Refer Figure below).
Source: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) Yearbook 2007
Chinese military modernization trends have the following implications for the South
Asian countries:
a. As China’s military capability increases, so does the regional anxiety about its
intentions. The force modernization programs when combined with long outstanding
territorial disputes raise concern over the stability of the region.
b. As military capability increases, so does possibility of a conflict because China
may feel that she has the capability to press for her claims.
c. China’s modernization of its Navy (including aircraft carrier and logistic base
in Djibouti) indicates her will to extend the blue water capability with adequate
power projection potentialities.
China-India in a New Context of “Chindia” and Its Impact
“21st Century belongs to Asia”, in late 1990s, such prophesy may be regarded as an
over optimistic view about Asia ‘Rise-up’. But now-a-days the mass media says that,
“21st Century is Asian Century”. Over last 25 years, since the collapse of Soviet Union,
the most influential international event is Asia’s “Rise-up”. In this regard, the most
outstanding parts of the region were China and India. Now the most critical issue is how
China and India handle their relationship in the regional perspective. The regional and
global peace and prosperity in coming years will mainly depend on their mutual trust
motive. The Chinese relation with India is the core in the chain of relationship between
China and South Asia. The former not only inhibited the latter, but also models the
structure of the South Asian regional system. However, China’s assistance to Pakistan to
develop nuclear and missile technology, in addition to being Islamabad’s biggest supplier
of conventional military weapons, is an obstacle to building trust between China and
India.
There is a possibility of a wonderful regional stability and harmony if China and
India peacefully rise up together to manage the regional affairs. On the other hand, if
China and India become active rivals and try to contain each other, then the consequences
will be pathetic for the entire region. To analyze these two possibilities, it is important to
look from two different perspectives. Firstly, the capabilities of China and India to make
the blueprint of Chindia come true. Secondly, the willingness of China and India to
pursue for Chindia in the long run which may be much more crucial issue. It is not
possible for these two countries to set up a very close relation even fuse their names
together just based on their respects for each other’s ancient civilization or marvelous
economic miracle. They need more convincing reasons, usually the shared interests over
vast issues.
Sino-Pakistan Strategic Partnership and Future
China is Pakistan's largest defense supplier. On the other hand, China views Pakistan
as a useful counterweight to Indian power in this region. China has helped Pakistan in
building two nuclear reactors at the Chasma site in the Punjab Province and provided
Pakistan with nuclear technology. China helped Pakistan develop a deep sea port at
Gwadar. Establishment of exclusive China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to
connect China with Gwador Deep Sea Port of Pakistan is another sign of strong ties
between Pakistan and China. All these issues might add fuel to the ancient rivalry
Impact of Growing Chinese...
between India and Pakistan. If this happens, both the countries might even seek for a
nuclear solution in the worst case.
Another source of tension was the issue of rising Islamic extremism in Pakistan and
the ability of Chinese Uighur separatists to receive sanctuary and training among other
radical Islamist groups in Pakistani territory. Pakistan in recent years has begun to clamp
down on Uighur settlements and on religious schools used as training grounds for
militant Islamists. Thus, Pakistan proved its sincerity in helping China to control Islamic
separatism in Xinjiang Province. As such Sino-Pakistan strategic partnership is a time
tested one and may likely to continue in near future, especially to contain India in the
region.
Possibilities of Chinese Hegemony
The primary goal of China will be the maintenance of a moderately high rate of
economic growth and attainment of a big power status. China will carefully watch the
future military postures of the US, India and other regional players in Asia. China’s
National Defense in 2008 states that China will never seek hegemony or engage in
military expansion now or in future, no matter how developed it becomes. But, as
China’s global interests and influence have expanded in recent years, its diplomatic and
military presence and engagement have become more visible and active to the world. In
the past China used military power on several occasions to establish its claim. It is also
unique among the great powers in having territorial dispute with virtually all its
neighbours. Therefore, a major question would be "will a strong and powerful China be
tempted to project its military power outside its borders and overseas?" It is said that
when nations are weak, they cite principles, when they are strong, they invoke artillery.
This dictum might come true for economically prosperous and militarily powerful China
in the near future.
It is evident that China with its rapid economic growth associated with an
expansionist foreign policy might try to pursue her ambition. This will create a huge
pressure on the South Asian Region. On the top, there are two more issues. Firstly,
China’s long lasting desire to get an access in the Indian Ocean for economic and
strategic reason. Secondly, presence of US troops in Afghanistan. At present Chinese
military is not in a position to mount a seizure of the entire region due to her economic
goals. But, this is also a fact that, it is alone China who has an overwhelming influence
over this region. The future non-involvement of the US in the regional disputes and the
inability of the Indians and the South Asian nations to singly or collectively stand up
against China may lower the economic cost of expansion and thus be an additional
motivating factor towards Chinese expansionism policy.
South Asian Perceptions of Powerful China
What does powerful China imply for the South Asian Region? Will China be a threat
or a constructive partner to the South Asian Nations? Following its take-over of Tibet,
China became an integral part of the South Asian geopolitical and strategic environment.
China’s present good relation with the neighbours of India has ensured her strong
footholds in South Asia. Except India, most of the other South Asian Countries do not see
the Chinese growing influence as a threat to their security. It is quite difficult to find antiChinese sentiments in most of the South Asian countries; Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal,
Sri Lanka and Maldives, which are all on good terms with China. The smaller South
Asian Countries do not have any border disputes with China, nor are they affected
adversely by its military power. They are also not concerned at the growing power and
stature of China in the region and beyond. Rather they welcome the growth of China’s
overall power and role.
In the foreseeable future, China and India, the two economic giants of the region,
would like to maintain status quo in order to gain time to modernize their economy and
military. However, the twenty-first century is likely to see a power struggle between
China and India. There will be conflict of interests between the two giants unless their
power competition is managed carefully. While they are potential competitors for power
and influence in Asia, China and India also share common interests in exploiting
economic opportunities, exploring new markets, and enhancing regional trade and cooperation. Unless and until a genuine attempt is made to resolve contentious issues
amicably, the future of Sino–Indian relation remains uncertain. In the short term, both
countries are likely to pursue peaceful ties, while they engage in modernization and
management of their internal security and political challenges. However, relations in the
medium to longer term are uncertain, and could again become tense.
Sino-Indian relations could become increasingly competitive or even confrontational
if China begins to pursue its major territorial claims against India, if its commitment
towards peaceful resolution of disputes diminishes, or if the political situation in Tibet
gets out of control. In the medium to longer run, China, being the most powerful state in
India’s neighbourhood, could directly affect India’s security, diplomacy, economy and
politics. When China poses a security challenge, strengthens India’s adversaries, or
assumes hegemonic tendencies, it would be a major factor of concern for India. The longterm requirement of India will be to match China’s strategic challenge in the region and
develop adequate military capabilities to meet the threat from China. With China
persisting in its military modernisation, India and consequently Pakistan and other states
in the region will need to maintain their defence modernisation so as not to create any
serious imbalance in conventional power. Thus, the continuous military modernisation of
China and India will increase the speed of arms race in South Asia.
CONCLUSIONS
Beside China, three extra-regional powers, the USA, Japan and Russia, would have
varying degree of interests in South Asia, of which the role of the USA would be
prominent. USA intends to enhance its engagement with India, Pakistan and China to
maintain balance of power in South Asia. China is expected to become increasingly
active and assertive in South Asia and in the Indian Ocean Region. India would try to
take necessary steps to match China so as to thwart any negative fall-out to its security.
India is, therefore, likely to go for close defence ties with USA, Russia and Japan in order
to create appropriate conditions for future contingencies. In the Asian security
environment, USA, China and India may be considered as the constituents of the balance
of power in South Asia. Owing to its location, growing power and involvement, China
will be a major factor in determining the nature and profile of South Asian security.
Given the increasing global interest in South Asian affairs and also given China’s steady
movement towards becoming the next superpower of the twenty-first century, the Chinaconnection of South Asian security is very likely to increase in the coming decades. In
fact, economically and militarily powerful China would shape in a major way the balance
of power and security environment of South Asia.
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Lieutenant Colonel Mizanur Rahman Mizan was commissioned
with 32 BMA Long Course in the regiment of Artillery on 16 June
1995. Lieutenant Colonel Mizan commanded two field regiment
artillery units; 6 Field Regiment Artillery and newly raised 18 Field
Regiment Artillery. He served as instructor in School of Military
Intelligence (SMI), Comilla. He also served in Chittagong Hill Tracts
(CHT) for counter insurgency operations. Beside different courses at
home, he attended Intelligence Course at UK and, UN CIMCoord
Course basic level at Kenya and advance level at Switzerland (both under UN OCHA,
Switzerland), leading to be a graduate of UN CIMCoord. He is a graduate of Defence
Services Command and Staff College (DSCSC), Mirpur, Bangladesh and Armed Forces’
Staff College (MTAT), Kualalumpur, Malaysia. He participated in United Nations Peace
Keeping Operation as a Company Commander in Ivory Coast (UNOCI) and Staff Officer
in Mission HQ in Darfur (UNAMID). He completed Post Graduate Diploma in Strategic
Studies with distinction from University of Malaya, Malaysia. He also completed BSc in
Computer Science and Engineering (CSE) from Military Institute of Science and
Technology (MIST) and MSc in Military Studies from Bangladesh University of
professionals (BUP). He is now a PhD fellow in Government and Politics Department of
Jahangirnagar University. Presently, he is serving as a Directing Staff in the Defence
Services Command and Staff College, Mirpur Cantonment, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
