IMF WEO Database (April 2017): China and US grow most

[Martian2]

IMF WEO Database (April 2017): China and US grow most

The IMF has released its latest April 2017 WEO (World Economic Outlook) data set. It is the most up-to-date GDP data available.

We will look at the IMF data for the past eight years (2010-2017) to filter out yearly gyrations and examine the long-term trend.

When you look at the world's 11 largest economies, you will notice that only three countries experienced significant economic growth. China grew the most at nearly 100% and an absolute growth of $5.73 trillion ($11.79 trillion - $6.06 trillion).

The US came in second with $4.45 trillion of absolute growth at nearly 30% growth.

India's absolute growth was a meager $0.75 trillion at 44% growth.

All of the other world's-11-largest-economies showed little or negative growth.

Since China (+$5.73 trillion) and the US (+$4.45 trillion) produced the only truly significant economic growth in the world during the past eight years, it makes sense to only pay attention to China and the US. The other countries are stagnant.

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Primary source from the IMF: World Economic Outlook Database April 2017 | IMF

Wikipedia has arranged the latest IMF April 2017 WEO data into a well-organized chart.

 

[AndrewJin]

But according to Supa Powans, these two countries r on the decline.

 

[Daniel808]

But according to Supa Powans, these two countries r on the decline.

According to Supa Powans Fanboy, China's Economy is Doomed ! @AndrewJin

But .....

It's Nice to see, China's Economy already Doubled their own Economy in 2010, when China pass japan.
@Martian2

 

[shadows888]

what happened to japan between 2012 and 2013? that's a 1 trillion+ decline...and still dropping.

 

[terranMarine]

what happened to japan between 2012 and 2013? that's a 1 trillion+ decline...and still dropping.

Most likely Diaoyu island purchase i think, the 2011 Fukushima could have contributed as well. Must not underestimate China's economic stick, SK is now feeling the pain

 

[Flash_Ninja]

what happened to japan between 2012 and 2013? that's a 1 trillion+ decline...and still dropping.

Shinzo Abe came to power and suddenly raised taxes to ease the debt situation leading to a sharp fall in consumer spending. Also the Bank of Japan was printing a huge amount of money to buy up government debt.

The overall decline from 2012 to present is due to: The value of the Yen being driven down, the population quickly aging, and the government taking on a lot of debt as part of the "Abenomics" policies.

 

[shadows888]

Shinzo Abe came to power and suddenly raised taxes to ease the debt situation leading to a sharp fall in consumer spending. Also the Bank of Japan was printing a huge amount of money to buy up government debt.

The overall decline from 2012 to present is due to: The value of the Yen being driven down, the population quickly aging, and the government taking on a lot of debt as part of the "Abenomics" policies.

ah I see, i remember it was part of his "3 arrows plan" called "Abenomics". the Fukushima nuclear disaster didn't help things either. Japan shut down all their nuclear plants and instead import extra fossil fuels to make up the energy lost, drastically increasing electric costs which makes manufactures more costly to operate.

 

[Mista]

what happened to japan between 2012 and 2013? that's a 1 trillion+ decline...and still dropping.

Most likely Diaoyu island purchase i think, the 2011 Fukushima could have contributed as well. Must not underestimate China's economic stick, SK is now feeling the pain

View attachment 393982

Nonsense. It has nothing got to do with China. The decline was due to the depreciation of the Yen against the USD due to the QE led by the Bank of Japan. The depreciation was more than 25% from 2012 to 2013, which perfectly explains why the economy dropped from $6 trillion to $5 trillion in that year.

Yen to USD

The Japanese real economy still grew faster than EU countries such as France, Germany, Spain or Italy despite the shrinking population; only the UK is doing better. This means that the real GDP per capita of Japan is still growing decently compared to other developed countries.

http://www.focus-economics.com/countries/japan
http://www.focus-economics.com/countries/france
http://www.focus-economics.com/countries/spain
http://www.focus-economics.com/countries/italy
http://www.focus-economics.com/countries/germany

You guys keep mocking India for their Superpowa attitude, yet you are displaying the exact same attitude which you guys are mocking. "Haha Japan is declining. Serves them right for offending mighty China, must be. Now South Korea must pay the price too".

 

[Martian2]

I intentionally selected a time period of eight years to eliminate the effect of currency fluctuations.

It doesn't matter that Japan's currency dropped in only one year. As a counter-example, the Yen appreciated against the US dollar last year (from 125 to 100 Yens per US Dollar).

The point is that Japan's nominal economy declined over an eight-year period. Japan's economy today is smaller than it was back in 2010. This is due to the falling Japanese population. Japan loses about 200,000 people per year. When you factor in inflation (which means one dollar in 2017 is worth less than one dollar in 2010), the Japanese economy is clearly shrinking.
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Now, aside from China and the US, let's look at the only other significantly growing economy in the top 11 world economies. We can ignore Britain, because its tiny growth is basically a statistical fluctuation over eight years.

India grew 44% over eight years, but it only totaled $0.75 trillion. This means it is mathematically impossible for India to catch China or the US.

The US grows at about 2% per year. Over eight years, the US grew by $4.45 trillion. Due to the base effect (which means the US started with a much larger economic base to calculate its percentage growth), it is impossible for India to catch the United States. India grew by $0.75 trillion and the US grew by $4.45 trillion, the gulf is growing ever wider.

Similarly, China grew by $5.73 trillion and India grew by $0.75 trillion. China is pulling much further ahead as time passes. China should average 6.5% growth over the next three years and probably 5% growth over the following five years.

India can't catch China or the United States, because Indian economic growth started too late. If India had been able to achieve a high growth rate decades earlier, it would be in the hunt for world's largest economy. However, India is trying to catch two super-large economies.

Both China and the US are $10 trillion-plus economies. Additionally, I should mention there's another trillion dollar GDP in China's economy that has not been accounted for yet. When we compare apples-to-apples, China's GDP should be about $12.8 trillion for 2017 (under the modern SNA 2008 accounting system). China is currently using the antiquated SNA 1993 accounting system and the US is presently using the SNA 2008.

In conclusion, there is no point following the economies of countries other than China and the United States. The other countries are too small and simply do not have the economic heft to pay for research into advanced technologies. Thus, only China and the US build fifth-generation stealth fighters and superfast supercomputers.

 

[truthseeker2010]

I intentionally selected a time period of eight years to eliminate the effect of currency fluctuations.

It doesn't matter that Japan's currency dropped in only one year. As a counter-example, the Yen appreciated against the US dollar last year (from 125 to 100 Yens per US Dollar).

The point is that Japan's nominal economy declined over an eight-year period. Japan's economy today is smaller than it was back in 2010. This is due to the falling Japanese population. Japan loses about 200,000 people per year. When you factor in inflation (which means one dollar in 2017 is worth less than one dollar in 2010), the Japanese economy is clearly shrinking.
----------

Now, aside from China and the US, let's look at the only other significantly growing economy in the top 11 world economies. We can ignore Britain, because its tiny growth is basically a statistical fluctuation over eight years.

India grew 44% over eight years, but it only totaled $0.75 trillion. This means it is mathematically impossible for India to catch China or the US.

The US grows at about 2% per year. Over eight years, the US grew by $4.45 trillion. Due to the base effect (which means the US started with a much larger economic base to calculate its percentage growth), it is impossible for India to catch the United States. India grew by $0.75 trillion and the US grew by $4.45 trillion, the gulf is growing ever wider.

Similarly, China grew by $5.73 trillion and India grew by $0.75 trillion. China is pulling much further ahead as time passes. China should average 6.5% growth over the next three years and probably 5% growth over the following five years.

India can't catch China or the United States, because Indian economic growth started too late. If India had been able to achieve a high growth rate decades earlier, it would be in the hunt for world's largest economy. However, India is trying to catch two very super-large economies.

Both China and the US are $10 trillion-plus economies. Additionally, I should mention there's another trillion dollar GDP in China's economy that has not been accounted for yet. When we compare apples-to-apples, China's GDP should be about $12.8 trillion for 2017 (under the modern SNA 2008 accounting system). China is currently using the antiquated SNA 1993 accounting system and the US is presently using the SNA 2008.

In conclusion, there is no point following the economies of countries other than China and the United States. The other countries are too small and simply do not have the economic heft to pay for research into advanced technologies. Thus, only China and the US build fifth-generation stealth fighters and superfast supercomputers.

According to indian logic, modi magic has just started, in the next 10 years they will catch up all the lost time of last 30 years..............

 

[Mista]

I intentionally selected a time period of eight years to eliminate the effect of currency fluctuations.

It doesn't matter that Japan's currency dropped in only one year. As a counter-example, the Yen appreciated against the US dollar last year (from 125 to 100 Yens per US Dollar).

The point is that Japan's nominal economy declined over an eight-year period. Japan's economy today is smaller than it was back in 2010. This is due to the falling Japanese population. Japan loses about 200,000 people per year. When you factor in inflation (which means one dollar in 2017 is worth less than one dollar in 2010), the Japanese economy is clearly shrinking.

It does affect. In the case from 2012-2013, the depreciation was 25%. It would take more than 10 years of constant 2% growth to make up for it.

The main reason for the decline in nominal GDP is still due to currency fluctuations. I've already pointed out that Japan's real economy is still growing and even faster than many EU countries despite her shrinking population. Look at the links if you will. The real economy has already factored in the shrinking population.

This graph perfectly explains your graph on why Japan's nominal GDP shrank in 2013,2014,2015, sudden expansion in 2016, estimated to shrink again in 2017. Her nominal GDP is smaller today because the Yen today is smaller than the Yen in 2012, not because the real economy shrink.

Now, aside from China and the US, let's look at the only other significantly growing economy in the top 11 world economies. We can ignore Britain, because its tiny growth is basically a statistical fluctuation over eight years.

India grew 44% over eight years, but it only totaled $0.75 trillion. This means it is mathematically impossible for India to catch China or the US.

The US grows at about 2% per year. Over eight years, the US grew by $4.45 trillion. Due to the base effect (which means the US started with a much larger economic base to calculate its percentage growth), it is impossible for India to catch the United States. India grew by $0.75 trillion and the US grew by $4.45 trillion, the gulf is growing ever wider.

Similarly, China grew by $5.73 trillion and India grew by $0.75 trillion. China is pulling much further ahead as time passes. China should average 6.5% growth over the next three years and probably 5% growth over the following five years.

India can't catch China or the United States, because Indian economic growth started too late. If India had been able to achieve a high growth rate decades earlier, it would be in the hunt for world's largest economy. However, India is trying to catch two super-large economies.

Both China and the US are $10 trillion-plus economies. Additionally, I should mention there's another trillion dollar GDP in China's economy that has not been accounted for yet. When we compare apples-to-apples, China's GDP should be about $12.8 trillion for 2017 (under the modern SNA 2008 accounting system). China is currently using the antiquated SNA 1993 accounting system and the US is presently using the SNA 2008.

In conclusion, there is no point following the economies of countries other than China and the United States. The other countries are too small and simply do not have the economic heft to pay for research into advanced technologies. Thus, only China and the US build fifth-generation stealth fighters and superfast supercomputers.

India is still a relatively small economy today. It needs to grow rapidly for 30 years and have a huge economic base before talking about catching up with US/China in absolute terms.

 

[Martian2]

It does affect. In the case from 2012-2013, the depreciation was 25%. It would take more than 10 years of constant 2% growth to make up for it.

The main reason for the decline in nominal GDP is still due to currency fluctuations. I've already pointed out that Japan's real economy is still growing and even faster than many EU countries despite her shrinking population. Look at the links if you will. The real economy has already factored in the shrinking population.

This graph perfectly explains your graph on why Japan's nominal GDP shrank in 2013,2014,2015, sudden expansion in 2016, estimated to shrink again in 2017. Her nominal GDP is smaller today because the Yen today is smaller than the Yen in 2012, not because the real economy shrink.



India is still a relatively small economy today. It needs to grow rapidly for 30 years and have a huge economic base before talking about catching up with US/China in absolute terms.

No. You are confusing effect for cause.

You blame the decline in the Japanese GDP on a "currency fluctuation." That is not a currency fluctuation. That is the market-based value of the Japanese Yen.

Japan has lost its leadership and profits from the electronics and semiconductor industries. Japan is currently standing on only one industrial leg with its prominence in the car industry. The Yen is permanently worth less than in the past, because Japan has a much weaker economy with meager profits and often-times trade deficits.

After eight years, Japan is not experiencing a "currency fluctuation." The Japanese Yen is priced correctly by the market, because Japan's economy is inherently weak. Japan is a much smaller exporter and is living off its past trade investments. Japan's trade surpluses are negligible.
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Mista is incorrect in his belief that Japan has experienced a "currency fluctuation." A currency fluctuation, by definition, only occurs over a short period of time (like one year). After eight years, Japan's currency is properly priced because the Japanese have been crushed in semiconductors and the electronics industry.

Notice how the Japanese have disappeared from the Top 10 in the semiconductor industry over the past few decades.

 

[ashok mourya]

Oh...India world no.3.Not bad...good going India.

 

[Mista]

No. You are confusing effect for cause.

You blame the decline in the Japanese GDP on a "currency fluctuation." That is not a currency fluctuation. That is the market-based value of the Japanese Yen.

Japan has lost its leadership and profits from the electronics and semiconductor industries. Japan is currently standing on only one industrial leg with its prominence in the car industry. The Yen is permanently worth less than in the past, because Japan has a much weaker economy with meager profits and often-times trade deficits.

After eight years, Japan is not experiencing a "currency fluctuation." The Japanese Yen is priced correctly by the market, because Japan's economy is inherently weak. Japan is a much smaller exporter and is living off its past trade investments. Japan's trade surpluses are negligible.
----------

Mista is incorrect in his belief that Japan has experienced a "currency fluctuation." A currency fluctuation, by definition, only occurs over a short period of time (like one year). After eight years, Japan's currency is properly priced because the Japanese have been crushed in semiconductors and the electronics industry.

Notice how the Japanese have disappeared from the Top 10 in the semiconductor industry over the past few decades.

Nope. The depreciation is due to the QE from Bank of Japan to introduce inflation and spur consumption, nothing to do with her trade figures. Abe is the one who is purposely pushing the Yen down. Not sure what you meant by negligible trade surplus.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_current_account_balance

Japan is still the largest creditor nation in the world. She could easily push up her currency if she wants.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_..._international_investment_position_per_capita

 

[Martian2]

Nope. The depreciation is due to the QE from Bank of Japan to introduce inflation and spur consumption, nothing to do with her trade figures. Abe is the one who is purposely pushing the Yen down. Not sure what you meant by negligible trade surplus.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_current_account_balance

Japan is still the largest creditor nation in the world. She could easily push up her currency if she wants.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_..._international_investment_position_per_capita

I don't care what your excuse is. After eight years, the Japanese Yen is correctly priced by the market.

Japan's nominal GDP is clearly smaller than it was eight years ago and there's no growth in sight for Japan.