IMF: China nominal per-capita GDP highest among BRIC in 2016

[Martian2]

Thanks for the most up-to-date information.
I'd like to know what's the impact of SNA2008 on China's GDP.
The recent report released in September by CSIS claims the GDP of 2008 has been considerably underestimated.
View attachment 263125 View attachment 263124

But I agree with @Genesis, it's more because of other countries' abysmal behaviour.
To match our counterparts in East Asia, it's still a long way to go.

If China used the SNA 2008 accounting method (like all of the other countries), instead of the current SNA 1993, then China's nominal GDP would increase by $1 trillion.

$1 trillion / 1.4 billion people = $714 in additional income per Chinese person
----------

Under SNA 2008

Nominal Per-Capita GDP for 2016 among BRIC countries
1. China - $9,580 (e.g. $8,866 + $714 = $9,580)
2. Brazil- $8,118
3. Russia - $8,058
4. India - $1,821

Nominal GDP for 2015 among BRIC countries
1. China - $12.4 trillion (e.g. $11.4 trillion + $1 trillion = $12.4 trillion)
2. India - $2.2 trillion
3. Brazil - $1.8 trillion
4. Russia - $1.2 trillion

 

[cirr]

China needs to find a way to shrink the enormous size of its “underground economy” of which the majority is not accounted for in the current GDP。

 

[Shotgunner51]

But I agree with @Genesis, it's more because of other countries' abysmal behaviour.
To match our counterparts in East Asia, it's still a long way to go.

Very well said bro! As I mentioned in many other posts it's meaningless to compare ourselves with other BRICS countries, since the geo-economic structures are completely different. China is industrialization driven, savings-oriented country.

Let's compare China Mainland to other economies in Greater China as well as in East Asia. You are right, it's still some way to go before resuming a normal economic status on par with our East Asian counterparts.

@Martian2 I suppose the IMF data of China is Mainland only isn't it?

 

[AndrewJin]

If China used the SNA 2008 accounting method (like all of the other countries), instead of the current SNA 1993, then China's nominal GDP would increase by $1 trillion.

$1 trillion / 1.4 billion people = $714 in additional income per Chinese person
----------

Under SNA 2008

Nominal Per-Capita GDP for 2016 among BRIC countries
1. China - $9,580 (e.g. $8,866 + $714 = $9,580)
2. Brazil- $8,118
3. Russia - $8,058
4. India - $1,821

Nominal GDP for 2015 among BRIC countries
1. China - $12.4 trillion (e.g. $11.4 trillion + $1 trillion = $12.4 trillion)
2. India - $2.2 trillion
3. Brazil - $1.8 trillion
4. Russia - $1.2 trillion

The CSIS report seemed to use the outdated SNA1993 to recalculate China's GDP in 2008.
It means, even with the relatively old SNA1993 methodology, China's GDP is still underestimated.
Some of the reasons include the inefficient bureaucratic statistics authority, the remnants of old CCCP-style GDP report system, and the systemic underestimation by central government.

Reconstruction of 2 trillion dollar tertiary sector in 2008.

 

[TaiShang]

China adopts IMF statistical benchmark
October 8, 2015

China's official statistics will conform to the Special Data Dissemination Standards (SDDS), a statistical system created by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to improve transparency, the central bank has announced.

With approval from the State Council, China's cabinet, People's Bank of China (PBOC) Governor Zhou Xiaochuan informed IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde of China's decision, the central bank announced on Thursday morning.

Since 2002, China has used the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS), which the IMF set up in December 1997 to provide a framework for countries to adapt and improve their statistical systems.

The GDDS applies to all IMF members, while the SDDS applies to member countries that have or are seeking access to international markets.

The SDDS was started by the IMF in 1996 to help it gain access to regular economic and financial statistics and assist participating countries in crafting updated economic policies and gaining access to financial markets.

Chinese President Xi Jinping promised last November at the Brisbane G20 Summit that China would switch to the SDDS.

In the past year, China's central economic agencies, including the National Bureau of Statistics, the PBOC and the Ministry of Finance, have worked to meet the IMF's SDDS statistics requirements.

The adoption of SDDS is a necessary step in reform and opening up, which will further improve China's statistical transparency, credibility and comparability among different economies, the PBOC said.

On Wednesday in Peruvian capital Lima, PBOC Deputy Governor Yi Gang and David Lipton, first deputy managing director of the IMF, attended a ceremony to celebrate China's adoption of the SDDS.

At the ceremony, Yi said China and the IMF have been working together to improve China's statistics for many years, and subscribing to the SDDS is another milestone in the collaboration.

"We are committed to strengthening our statistical system and enhancing transparency, as this is not only crucial for our own policy making, but also beneficial for a better understanding of the Chinese economy by the outside world," Yi said.

The IMF welcomed the move, calling it "an important advance." Lipton said adhering to the SDDS shows "China's strong commitment to transparency as well as to the adoption of international best practices in statistics."

The United States also welcomed China's commitment to release economic data in accordance with the SDDS by the end of the year and China's continued efforts to enhance transparency.

China recognizes the importance to successful RMB internationalization of meeting the transparency standards of other major reserve currencies.

The consensus between the world's top two economies was one of important results arising from President Xi's state visit to the U.S. late last month.

 

[Nilgiri]

What's wrong with Russia,?such a huge land full of resources with intelligent people.

Thats what massive depreciation of currency does to a country when you are talking about Nominal GDP terms in dollars (or more generally a currency that is not your own).

This is why there is a big flaw in using Nominal GDP measure especially for countries not reliant on trade with US dollar (as % of their economy) especially from an import/consumption perspective.

If you look at their GDP and per capita in their local currency (Ruble), they are not halving like they are in US dollars:

Report for Selected Countries and Subjects

You will also notice their PPP did not halve either....again showing relatively minimal importance of US-dollar dependent imports, services and dollar based external investment to the Russian Economy.

It's not like Russia is producing half the quantity amount of every good and service it did from a year previous...the price of those goods and services has taken a major hit in US dollar terms (but not ruble terms anywhere close to the same degree) because of market sentiment, speculation and western pressure/sanctions (that helped to trigger the first capital flight situation in late 2014).

Russia recovered from that in early 2015 which resulted in IMF giving a more rosy situation for Russian Nominal GDP in US dollars in their April release of the WEO figures.

However there was another USD/RUB crash recently which has again affected the outlook for this parameter.

Refer to:

XE.com - USD/RUB Chart

This is also why there is no serious economic article that said Russia is in a reccession to the level of 50% and also why there is no massive rioting/revolution on the street which would inevitably happen if people's purchasing power actually dropped 50% in a year.

You will notice a similar trend for Brazil:

Report for Selected Countries and Subjects

XE.com - USD/BRL Chart

 

[AndrewJin]

China adopts IMF statistical benchmark
October 8, 2015

China's official statistics will conform to the Special Data Dissemination Standards (SDDS), a statistical system created by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to improve transparency, the central bank has announced.

With approval from the State Council, China's cabinet, People's Bank of China (PBOC) Governor Zhou Xiaochuan informed IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde of China's decision, the central bank announced on Thursday morning.

Since 2002, China has used the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS), which the IMF set up in December 1997 to provide a framework for countries to adapt and improve their statistical systems.

The GDDS applies to all IMF members, while the SDDS applies to member countries that have or are seeking access to international markets.

The SDDS was started by the IMF in 1996 to help it gain access to regular economic and financial statistics and assist participating countries in crafting updated economic policies and gaining access to financial markets.

Chinese President Xi Jinping promised last November at the Brisbane G20 Summit that China would switch to the SDDS.

In the past year, China's central economic agencies, including the National Bureau of Statistics, the PBOC and the Ministry of Finance, have worked to meet the IMF's SDDS statistics requirements.

The adoption of SDDS is a necessary step in reform and opening up, which will further improve China's statistical transparency, credibility and comparability among different economies, the PBOC said.

On Wednesday in Peruvian capital Lima, PBOC Deputy Governor Yi Gang and David Lipton, first deputy managing director of the IMF, attended a ceremony to celebrate China's adoption of the SDDS.

At the ceremony, Yi said China and the IMF have been working together to improve China's statistics for many years, and subscribing to the SDDS is another milestone in the collaboration.

"We are committed to strengthening our statistical system and enhancing transparency, as this is not only crucial for our own policy making, but also beneficial for a better understanding of the Chinese economy by the outside world," Yi said.

The IMF welcomed the move, calling it "an important advance." Lipton said adhering to the SDDS shows "China's strong commitment to transparency as well as to the adoption of international best practices in statistics."

The United States also welcomed China's commitment to release economic data in accordance with the SDDS by the end of the year and China's continued efforts to enhance transparency.

China recognizes the importance to successful RMB internationalization of meeting the transparency standards of other major reserve currencies.

The consensus between the world's top two economies was one of important results arising from President Xi's state visit to the U.S. late last month.

Not just using the new method, the bureaucratic statistics bureau should be reshaped.
According to the recent report, China has a far smaller statistics bureau then her western counterparts such as U.S. and Japan. The reporting system is still largely influenced by outdated mindsets of CCCP's calculation method.

 

[Martian2]

Very well said bro! As I mentioned in many other posts it's meaningless to compare ourselves with other BRICS countries, since the geo-economic structures are completely different. China is industrialization driven, savings-oriented country.

Let's compare China Mainland to other economies in Greater China as well as in East Asia. You are right, it's still some way to go before resuming a normal economic status on par with our East Asian counterparts.

@Martian2 I suppose the IMF data of China is Mainland only isn't it?

Yes. It excludes Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan.

 

[The BrOkEn HeArT]

Wonder.. Russia taking lead again in 2020.

 

[tranquilium]

India's growth is healthy, its good to see Pan-Asian growth. Anyways a healthy Sino-Indo growth is great for the region, great for the world economy. Great for their investors, too.

India's economic structure is actually a bit strange.

Indian economy growth sectors and significant opportunities

Here is the GDP composition by sector from BRIC nations:
Brazil:
Brazil GDP - composition by sector - Economy
Russia:
Russia GDP - composition by sector - Economy
India:
India GDP - composition by sector - Economy
China:
China GDP - composition by sector - Economy

In comparison:
(GDP sector composition of developed/resource exporting nations)
Australia:
Australia GDP - composition by sector - Economy
France:
France GDP - composition by sector - Economy
Germany:
Germany GDP - composition by sector - Economy
Japan:
Japan GDP - composition by sector - Economy
US:
United States GDP - composition by sector - Economy

(GDP sector composition of developing nations with increasing presence)
Indonesia:
Indonesia GDP - composition by sector - Economy
Malaysia
Malaysia GDP - composition by sector - Economy
Vietnam:
Vietnam GDP - composition by sector - Economy

It is not difficult to see that GDP composition wise, out of the four BRIC nations, Brazil's composition is actually a composition for developed nations/resource exporter. This is actually not surprising considering that Brazil (and Argentina)'s rapid development phase actually took place before 1960s and peaked around that time. The modern day Brazil is similar to European nations which has already reached an expansion limit and plateaued.

Russia's industry, despite its troubles in the past two decades, is actually a lot stronger than most people realize. While Russia' industry sector percentage is smaller than a developing nation in its rapid rising phase, it is actually a lot larger than plateaued nations such as France, Japan and US. Keep in mind though, Russia's overall growth rate is more in line with a developed nation/resource exporter.
Russia GDP Annual Growth Rate | 1996-2015 | Data | Chart | Calendar
IMO, this actually helps to explain Russia's recent expansion in outward force projection. In 90s and 00s, Russia's anemic international power projection is mostly owing internal weakness. However, the current one actually looks to have quite a bit potential. So Putin must been doing something right back home.

Both Russia and Brazil's economy is closer to a developed nation's economy than a developing nation. It makes sense, both of these nations WERE actually developed nations in the past and Russia still is. (Though Brazil's peak was in 50s and before the concept of developed/developing nations)

China's composition, frankly, explains its absurd speed of development. One reason industrial sector is used as the identifier between developed/developing nations is that the industrial sector is the foundation of everything else. Basically, if your industry is large, then it will bring up the service sector to match just by existing. This is why rapidly developing nations typically has a larger percentage of industrial sector. In China's case, its industrial sector is large to the point that it is higher percentage than even small much economies like Indonesia, Vietnam and Malaysia. It is developing nation with a very high potential rate of development.

This brings us to the point of India and my observation that India's economic composition is a bit weird. India's economy shows both the characteristic of developing economy and developed economies (and unfortunately not necessarily the good characteristics). GDP by sector wise, India resembles developed nations (India is not a resource exporter) aside from the abnormally large agriculture sector. On the other hand, its growth rate and inflation rate resembles a developing nation. The article I linked also observed that while India do see large growth in industrial sector, its highest growing sector (and by the far the larger contribution to the economy) is banking, followed by real estate. In fact, India's real estate sector contribute to about 13% of the GDP (comparing to China's 5%). This is another indicator that resembles a plateaued developed nation rather than a fast rising developing nation.

So here is my observation. India is growing, but it is not growing like a typical developing nation. Whether it is healthy or not only time will tell.

 

[Shotgunner51]

India's economic structure is actually a bit strange.

Indian economy growth sectors and significant opportunities

Here is the GDP composition by sector from BRIC nations:
Brazil:
Brazil GDP - composition by sector - Economy
Russia:
Russia GDP - composition by sector - Economy
India:
India GDP - composition by sector - Economy
China:
China GDP - composition by sector - Economy

In comparison:
(GDP sector composition of developed/resource exporting nations)
Australia:
Australia GDP - composition by sector - Economy
France:
France GDP - composition by sector - Economy
Germany:
Germany GDP - composition by sector - Economy
Japan:
Japan GDP - composition by sector - Economy
US:
United States GDP - composition by sector - Economy

(GDP sector composition of developing nations with increasing presence)
Indonesia:
Indonesia GDP - composition by sector - Economy
Malaysia
Malaysia GDP - composition by sector - Economy
Vietnam:
Vietnam GDP - composition by sector - Economy

It is not difficult to see that GDP composition wise, out of the four BRIC nations, Brazil's composition is actually a composition for developed nations/resource exporter. This is actually not surprising considering that Brazil (and Argentina)'s rapid development phase actually took place before 1960s and peaked around that time. The modern day Brazil is similar to European nations which has already reached an expansion limit and plateaued.

Russia's industry, despite its troubles in the past two decades, is actually a lot stronger than most people realize. While Russia' industry sector percentage is smaller than a developing nation in its rapid rising phase, it is actually a lot larger than plateaued nations such as France, Japan and US. Keep in mind though, Russia's overall growth rate is more in line with a developed nation/resource exporter.
Russia GDP Annual Growth Rate | 1996-2015 | Data | Chart | Calendar
IMO, this actually helps to explain Russia's recent expansion in outward force projection. In 90s and 00s, Russia's anemic international power projection is mostly owing internal weakness. However, the current one actually looks to have quite a bit potential. So Putin must been doing something right back home.

Both Russia and Brazil's economy is closer to a developed nation's economy than a developing nation. It makes sense, both of these nations WERE actually developed nations in the past and Russia still is. (Though Brazil's peak was in 50s and before the concept of developed/developing nations)

China's composition, frankly, explains its absurd speed of development. One reason industrial sector is used as the identifier between developed/developing nations is that the industrial sector is the foundation of everything else. Basically, if your industry is large, then it will bring up the service sector to match just by existing. This is why rapidly developing nations typically has a larger percentage of industrial sector. In China's case, its industrial sector is large to the point that it is higher percentage than even small much economies like Indonesia, Vietnam and Malaysia. It is developing nation with a very high potential rate of development.

This brings us to the point of India and my observation that India's economic composition is a bit weird. India's economy shows both the characteristic of developing economy and developed economies (and unfortunately not necessarily the good characteristics). GDP by sector wise, India resembles developed nations (India is not a resource exporter) aside from the abnormally large agriculture sector. On the other hand, its growth rate and inflation rate resembles a developing nation. The article I linked also observed that while India do see large growth in industrial sector, its highest growing sector (and by the far the larger contribution to the economy) is banking, followed by real estate. In fact, India's real estate sector contribute to about 13% of the GDP (comparing to China's 5%). This is another indicator that resembles a plateaued developed nation rather than a fast rising developing nation.

So here is my observation. India is growing, but it is not growing like a typical developing nation. Whether it is healthy or not only time will tell.

Good analysis!

China produces more steel and concrete than rest of the world combined to build the biggest ever infrastructure, cities and industrial bases which generate the world's #1 largest industrial GDP, #1 largest producer of numerous industrial goods, #1 in high tech exports (more than next 3 industrial powers combined), giving China an unparalleled trade clout (>124 countries has China as top partner), #1 trade surpluses and now is world's #2 creditor nation after Japan (Greater China combined #1). Even in agriculture, China is #1 in terms of GDP. On literacy, schooling, intelligence quotient, even sports, China tops most international arena. As a result of low consumption, China has a relatively low combined GDP, however that further drives China to having world's #1 gross domestic savings.

On combined GDP there is hardly any comparison, China is a low consumption, high savings creditor nation. And in terms of sector composition:

While China tops the world in industrial & agriculture, services sector is exceptionally low in China's economic structure.

There is no GDP comparison between an economy of high spending with debt, and an economy of low spending with savings/credits.

Source: China will have the highest GDP per capita among BRICS countries. | Page 5

 

[Keel]

It has been a norm in use for a long time for international orgs like IMF, World Bank, CIA, WEF, Pew, WTO, Olympics.WIPO, OECD, PISA, WHO, UN, IATA. ICC ... to separate the different locations (Mainland, Twn, HK, Macao) for individual benchmark assessments though the sovereignty remains intact (touching wood)

 

[liall]

I thought Russia had more than 10K $ USD per capita. Guess all that sanctions took a toll on it. Anyways good job China. Hope we can replicate your success

 

[Nike]

India's economic structure is actually a bit strange.

Indian economy growth sectors and significant opportunities

Here is the GDP composition by sector from BRIC nations:
Brazil:
Brazil GDP - composition by sector - Economy
Russia:
Russia GDP - composition by sector - Economy
India:
India GDP - composition by sector - Economy
China:
China GDP - composition by sector - Economy

In comparison:
(GDP sector composition of developed/resource exporting nations)
Australia:
Australia GDP - composition by sector - Economy
France:
France GDP - composition by sector - Economy
Germany:
Germany GDP - composition by sector - Economy
Japan:
Japan GDP - composition by sector - Economy
US:
United States GDP - composition by sector - Economy

(GDP sector composition of developing nations with increasing presence)
Indonesia:
Indonesia GDP - composition by sector - Economy
Malaysia
Malaysia GDP - composition by sector - Economy
Vietnam:
Vietnam GDP - composition by sector - Economy

It is not difficult to see that GDP composition wise, out of the four BRIC nations, Brazil's composition is actually a composition for developed nations/resource exporter. This is actually not surprising considering that Brazil (and Argentina)'s rapid development phase actually took place before 1960s and peaked around that time. The modern day Brazil is similar to European nations which has already reached an expansion limit and plateaued.

Russia's industry, despite its troubles in the past two decades, is actually a lot stronger than most people realize. While Russia' industry sector percentage is smaller than a developing nation in its rapid rising phase, it is actually a lot larger than plateaued nations such as France, Japan and US. Keep in mind though, Russia's overall growth rate is more in line with a developed nation/resource exporter.
Russia GDP Annual Growth Rate | 1996-2015 | Data | Chart | Calendar
IMO, this actually helps to explain Russia's recent expansion in outward force projection. In 90s and 00s, Russia's anemic international power projection is mostly owing internal weakness. However, the current one actually looks to have quite a bit potential. So Putin must been doing something right back home.

Both Russia and Brazil's economy is closer to a developed nation's economy than a developing nation. It makes sense, both of these nations WERE actually developed nations in the past and Russia still is. (Though Brazil's peak was in 50s and before the concept of developed/developing nations)

China's composition, frankly, explains its absurd speed of development. One reason industrial sector is used as the identifier between developed/developing nations is that the industrial sector is the foundation of everything else. Basically, if your industry is large, then it will bring up the service sector to match just by existing. This is why rapidly developing nations typically has a larger percentage of industrial sector. In China's case, its industrial sector is large to the point that it is higher percentage than even small much economies like Indonesia, Vietnam and Malaysia. It is developing nation with a very high potential rate of development.

This brings us to the point of India and my observation that India's economic composition is a bit weird. India's economy shows both the characteristic of developing economy and developed economies (and unfortunately not necessarily the good characteristics). GDP by sector wise, India resembles developed nations (India is not a resource exporter) aside from the abnormally large agriculture sector. On the other hand, its growth rate and inflation rate resembles a developing nation. The article I linked also observed that while India do see large growth in industrial sector, its highest growing sector (and by the far the larger contribution to the economy) is banking, followed by real estate. In fact, India's real estate sector contribute to about 13% of the GDP (comparing to China's 5%). This is another indicator that resembles a plateaued developed nation rather than a fast rising developing nation.

So here is my observation. India is growing, but it is not growing like a typical developing nation. Whether it is healthy or not only time will tell.

i see, in contrast with other perceptions about Indonesia, most people see Indonesia is an agricultural country and depends lot of her share GDP from extraction business, but actually Indonesia is an emerging industrial country and have a lot emerging local industry rising from the ashes of 1998 economic crisis.

 

[mike2000 is back]

The shocking trend is the massive contraction in Russia and Brazil.

I agree with @Genesis ...more of own goals by Brazil and Russia...when you look at what the projections were earlier in the year.

Lets see how the next release in 2016 April looks like!

Congrats to India and China. Seems our sanctions are doing wonders for Russia' economy. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/3/8e640b2e-3f71-11e5-b98b-87c7270955cf.html
Russia's Economy Contracts By 4.6% in Three Months

This Will teach Putin a good lesson for messing with E.U/U.S at the same time. Even China has now overtaken Russia in GDP per capital, now that's a shocking news for Russia indeed. At this rate in 23 years from now, even Turkey and indonesia will overtake Russia economically.lol Putin better comeback to his senses and make peace with us before its too late for Russia. @vostok , @Gabriel92 , @senheiser , @FlyCheatter .