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Nope Tipu China wont
I doubt that if India so "something" big in Kashmir (Azad), like full scale invasion or cold start type rapid assault to destroy Militants camps by ground forces instead of surgical strikes then it Will trigger response from China too.
Let's say such conflict turn into limited regional war, like Kargil then I don't think Chinese will work as spectator only.
I don't want them to fight along side Pakistan shoulder to shoulder but to play their active role in Ladakh region .......
India is not "idiot" to use terms of Two front war and develop policies accordingly time to time.
They understand mentality of Pakistan as well as China and up to what level Both nations can cross........
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By the time Rafale arrive (if) in IAF, the ECM and weapon capabilities of PAF will also evolve.
If PAF manage to get AIM120C, AIM9X missiles along with ECM and IRST pods for F16s, then I doubt it will be not be so easy for IAF to shot down PAF like you are mentioning. If IAF will move forward, then PAF will do the same in all possible ways.
And do consider Jf17 here, I don't know why you said that weapon stations of JF17 will remain same for a while?
Sd10b is already in pipe line, A Darter as well as PL15 are also in picture.
More over PAF is also looking forward for better engine as well as avionics from West including Selex AESA radar, IRST and EW capabilities.
If in near future, IAF will be equipped with HOBS and Advance BVR missiles then so will be PAF. Above all the engagements will take place mostly above skies of Pakistan, so put SAM into consideration too ......
Things are not as bad as you just pictured :coffee:

Defination of WVR itself has been changed. In todays scenario, 30-40 KM is considered WVR. If you are in this limit, Only Almighty can save you from the french or Russian BVR. Longer than that it will be a game of teasing, firing BVR on each other to make oneself to turn away from battle and flee and whoever turns away will be allowing an enemy aerial package consisting 2+2 or 3+3 formation to come in to one's defenses.

Lets imagine a scenario, on Su-30 MKI or one French Rafael with 12 BVR firing upon Pakistani packages at a range of 90-120 KM considering Long range French, Israeli and Russian BVR would be integrated onto them by now. On top of that, Indian EW game is also strong. They can confuse our radars with their Aesa based DRFM jammers.

Current inventory of Pakistani BVR have ranges b/w 50-80 KM. Former being SD-10 A which has maximum launch distance of 70 KM later being AMRAM with max distance of 100 KM and I'm not seeing any changes in BVR inventory for upto distant future i.e 10-15 years.

On top of that PAF can not cross into India with ease considering the dense SAM coverage over there. So we would be forced to fight war at our own turf.


Considering all such things and lack of HOBS missile. That is why I said, dog fighting and WVR up to 20 KM should be prefered less



Hard radar lock will be secondary choice imho. First preference would be given to lock onto aircraft through IRST and EW based sensors. Taking example of Rafael sensor suit, even its radar is turned off it can easily lock onto through its SPectra and IRST.

Only saving grace I would see A combination of extremely reliable aesa radar DRFM based EW suit and PL-15 BVR on JF-17 to stand up to IAF combo. Less than that JF-17 would be a turkey shoot for IAF. Currenk KLJ and SD-10 A combo is extremely weak to take onto Upgraded and newly acquired aircrafts of IAF.
 
Defination of WVR itself has been changed. In todays scenario, 30-40 KM is considered WVR. If you are in this limit, Only Almighty can save you from the french or Russian BVR. Longer than that it will be a game of teasing, firing BVR on each other to make oneself to turn away from battle and flee and whoever turns away will be allowing an enemy aerial package consisting 2+2 or 3+3 formation to come in to one's defenses.

Lets imagine a scenario, on Su-30 MKI or one French Rafael with 12 BVR firing upon Pakistani packages at a range of 90-120 KM considering Long range French, Israeli and Russian BVR would be integrated onto them by now. On top of that, Indian EW game is also strong. They can confuse our radars with their Aesa based DRFM jammers.

Current inventory of Pakistani BVR have ranges b/w 50-80 KM. Former being SD-10 A which has maximum launch distance of 70 KM later being AMRAM with max distance of 100 KM and I'm not seeing any changes in BVR inventory for upto distant future i.e 10-15 years.

On top of that PAF can not cross into India with ease considering the dense SAM coverage over there. So we would be forced to fight war at our own turf.


Considering all such things and lack of HOBS missile. That is why I said, dog fighting and WVR up to 20 KM should be prefered less



Hard radar lock will be secondary choice imho. First preference would be given to lock onto aircraft through IRST and EW based sensors. Taking example of Rafael sensor suit, even its radar is turned off it can easily lock onto through its SPectra and IRST.

Only saving grace I would see A combination of extremely reliable aesa radar DRFM based EW suit and PL-15 BVR on JF-17 to stand up to IAF combo. Less than that JF-17 would be a turkey shoot for IAF. Currenk KLJ and SD-10 A combo is extremely weak to take onto Upgraded and newly acquired aircrafts of IAF.

In response to the bold part:

I think we must realize that finalizing of Rafale by India is very recent development and it will take sometime before we see a response by PAF in terms of new system acquisition to deter this new threat. But I am sure the concerned departments within PAF already on it. And that response would logically comprises on both new planes and weapons. So, If there is going to be a need, PAF will certainly go for longer range BVR missiles be it Pl-15 or Pl-21 (ramjet). Our problem is that Chinese system are still maturing and would take few years before becoming a dependable weapon of choice. But to me, even with the current missiles, main focus must be on EW. BVR or WVR, the outcome of every plausible air combat scenario would eventually boiled down to this aspect. Batter jammer/avinoics, better survival chances to disengage from battle or re-engage in it for taking the second shot.

As far as Thunder's upgrade is concerned, it is natural phenomenon. I don't see any reason why AESA, new EW suit and longer range weapons would not be integrated. PAF is desperate to enhance its capabilities.This tells us why PAF is still looking for French pods ... PAF is aware of the fact that in order to exploit the true potential of Thunder, it will have to be equipped with Western avionics like original plan was. But even with those, PAF must realize that Thunder will always remain a light-combat aircraft and cannot strike deep inside enemy territory and I hope that realization is also there. Two things needed here;

1. A well defined Block-III upgrade plan for Thunders keep in mind the current strength of IAF.
2. Acquisition of SU-35 or Typhoons (even in small numbers will have their psychological impact).

People here often say, PAF must go for J-31. Well, in the long term, I can agree with that, but from short to medium terms (5-9 years) ... that is simply not possible as now we know development of advanced jets is not as smooth as it seems on our laptops.
 
I doubt that if India so "something" big in Kashmir (Azad), like full scale invasion or cold start type rapid assault to destroy Militants camps by ground forces instead of surgical strikes then it Will trigger response from China too.
Let's say such conflict turn into limited regional war, like Kargil then I don't think Chinese will work as spectator only.
I don't want them to fight along side Pakistan shoulder to shoulder but to play their active role in Ladakh region .......
India is not "idiot" to use terms of Two front war and develop policies accordingly time to time.
They understand mentality of Pakistan as well as China and up to what level Both nations can cross....

Tipu when we talk of two front war, we cater confrontation with China and Pakistan taking advantage, not reverse. Ever. They haven't and they wont ever intervene even in case of a hypothetical invasion of your Kashmir. (that too wont happen)

The rationale is simple and you can ask the Chinese professionals on this forum, they do not have an alliance with Pakistan ........ that is why. They will give you support short of direct intervention. It does not support their objectives.
 
Defination of WVR itself has been changed. In todays scenario, 30-40 KM is considered WVR. If you are in this limit, Only Almighty can save you from the french or Russian BVR. Longer than that it will be a game of teasing, firing BVR on each other to make oneself to turn away from battle and flee and whoever turns away will be allowing an enemy aerial package consisting 2+2 or 3+3 formation to come in to one's defenses.

Lets imagine a scenario, on Su-30 MKI or one French Rafael with 12 BVR firing upon Pakistani packages at a range of 90-120 KM considering Long range French, Israeli and Russian BVR would be integrated onto them by now. On top of that, Indian EW game is also strong. They can confuse our radars with their Aesa based DRFM jammers.

Current inventory of Pakistani BVR have ranges b/w 50-80 KM. Former being SD-10 A which has maximum launch distance of 70 KM later being AMRAM with max distance of 100 KM and I'm not seeing any changes in BVR inventory for upto distant future i.e 10-15 years.

On top of that PAF can not cross into India with ease considering the dense SAM coverage over there. So we would be forced to fight war at our own turf.

Considering all such things and lack of HOBS missile. That is why I said, dog fighting and WVR up to 20 KM should be prefered less

Hard radar lock will be secondary choice imho. First preference would be given to lock onto aircraft through IRST and EW based sensors. Taking example of Rafael sensor suit, even its radar is turned off it can easily lock onto through its SPectra and IRST.

Only saving grace I would see A combination of extremely reliable aesa radar DRFM based EW suit and PL-15 BVR on JF-17 to stand up to IAF combo. Less than that JF-17 would be a turkey shoot for IAF. Currenk KLJ and SD-10 A combo is extremely weak to take onto Upgraded and newly acquired aircrafts of IAF.

As i said above, BVR success rate is and will be very low at long ranges. A slight angle deviation by the fighter plane being the target for a BVR kill will take it out of the kill range and then these fighter jets have defensive measures too which may include something electronic or physical measures in shape of Chaffs which can very easily confuse the BVR missile. I will suggest if you can, have a discussion with pilots who are on duty and experience with BVR fighting and they might give you an idea why BVR is very difficult at long range.

With so many factors coming into play which can make BVR ineffective, things will move back to WVR. BVR missiles have good chance of success at 20-30KM range but then again few counter measure including pilot skills, ECMs can defeat them. Thus, WVR IR missiles / gunnery targeting will come into play and that is why as i said previously PAF is asking its pilots to master both BVR & WVR skills and it is due to this fact that we have performed good in international exercises. And it is due to the skills & experience of PAF that Chinese AF has started regular exercises and i won't go much into the reason of why.

During Anatolian Eagle exercise where we thrashed Typhoons, during 1 single engagement, PAF MLU upgraded F-16s Vs Typhoon scored all 3 kills in BVR mode, WVR IR missile mode & gun mode. British Typhoons & Spanish F-18s were in major engagements thrashed by both PAF & TuAF.
 
Tipu when we talk of two front war, we cater confrontation with China and Pakistan taking advantage, not reverse. Ever. They haven't and they wont ever intervene even in case of a hypothetical invasion of your Kashmir. (that too wont happen)

The rationale is simple and you can ask the Chinese professionals on this forum, they do not have an alliance with Pakistan ........ that is why. They will give you support short of direct intervention. It does not support their objectives.
Well you are most welcome to have your opinion.
But I do ''fear'' Chinese direct involvement in any upcoming conflict in Kashmir.
 
these fighter jets have defensive measures too which may include something electronic or physical measures in shape of Chaffs which can very easily confuse the BVR missile.
Chaffs or Flares don't work on BVR missiles.
They are meant to counter short range Heat seeking or infra red guidance based missiles in close combat.
You can avoid BVR missile in many ways if you are operating a fighter jet.
Before considering the threat of BVR first one have to put into consideration how this missile work and what are its limitations.

Firstly in general (take example of AIM120 series)

BVR missile consists of four sections

1: Guidance section which consists of seeker and transmitter
2: Warhead section which carries the warhead to kill aircraft
3: Propulsion system which carries rocket motor and fuel
4: Control section which control the direction of missile

Now BVR missiles are designed to travel long distance, so they are sleek in design and very aero dynamic. They are less flexible and cannot turn sharp G turns in short duration of time. So when ever the target take rapid G turn at range close to missile, the missile incapable of sustaining such tern simple lose the target.The fuel carried by missile is also limited. If a BVR missile has 100km range then it mean it can travel 100km in straight line. If aircraft take turns and change altitude then BVR missile consume a lot of fuel inorder to do keep the target in sight and in ''locked'' phase. As a result its range reduces considerably. Byy doing so, one can simply ''dry out'' the missile from fuel and hence get rid of it. But it is possible at long range only. Strong ECM pod can track the frequency of transmitter and jam it making the missile to lose target.
The longer the distance missile is fired, greater is the probability that it will miss the target. That's why shooting ONE BVR is just waste of missile and usually two or more BVR are fired in calculated time interval so that even if aircraft manage to dodge the first missile, it will be unable to restore enough energy in ''calculated'' time to dodge the second or third one. This is somethings related to skill of pilot than the advance tech.

Here you can see the missile and compare it with High Bore Of sight Missile like Aim9X which is meant to be more flexible and hence is capable of making and sustaining high G turns in low and high altitude.
Unlike HBOS missiles, the size of Fins of BVR is small and they lack Thrust vectoring nozzles too. So in Indo Pak aerial warfare case, I do believe that close range WVR combat is as real as BVR combat is. BVR missile pose significant threat to large aircrafts like Tankers, AWACS, Strategic transporter etc as they are big aircraft, offer bigger target and are neither fast enough to out run the missile nor flexible enough to dodge the missile at close range.

You can see the visual difference too

AIM120C AMRAAM
post-15260-0-43871300-1356955922.jpg


AIM9X HBOS missile
005.jpg



Here wing tip AIM120C and under the wing AIM9X.
Note the thickness difference, length difference, size of fins, difference in location of fins and shape of seeker head

AIM-9X-and-AIM-120C_A.jpg
 
Here you can see the missile and compare it with High Bore Of sight Missile like Aim9X which is meant to be more flexible and hence is capable of making and sustaining high G turns in low and high altitude.

Hi dear @Tipu7
Let me write an explanation as to why WVR missiles like AIM9X have that specific aerodynamic profile vis-a-vis lets say a BVR AIM-120 or ASTRA. I will try my best to keep the mathematics at a bare minimum level.
First off,let us first understand what is angle of attack and proportional guidance scheme.
aoa.png

Picture Courtesy: Brian L Steven
As you can see the angle of attack is the angle subtended between the projection of velocity V=sqrt(v^2+u^2+w^2) on x-z plane and the zero lift line of the plane.This holds good for missiles as well.That is the reason why \alpha\=arctan(w/u)------------------from the figure above.
Now i will shed some light on the aerodynamic configuration of WVR and BVR.
First off,the control surface in a AIM9X is tail as opposed to the canard. AIM9L on the other hand has canard as the "control-surface". Now the basic flight dynamics would tell you that any surface mounted ahead of CG has a "de-stabilizing" affect on the longitudinal dynamics of the aerial vehicle.This is beautifully captured in the expression of-
Cm=Cm0+Cm(alpha)*alpha.
If one actually gets down to the dynamics one would find that Cmalpha (stability derivative) is a strong function of static margin,where static margin is defined as (Xcg-Xac)/c. For stability we would want Cmalpha to be negative,which would imply static margin to be negative as well.This in turn implies Xcg-Xac<0 or Xac>Xcg.That is the reason why canards have de-stabilizing effect on the stability of aerial vehicles.
Now bigger a canard,higher will be the destabilizing effect and hence a bigger tail would be required at the rear to stabilize the missile-which is precisely the case with AIM9L.
The primary advantage of canard control is better maneuverability at low angles of attack, but canards tend to become ineffective at high angles of attack because of flow separation that causes the surfaces to stall.
The WVR missiles currently in the arsenal of india are far more effective than those in PAF because of the following reason-
1)SPLIT CANARDS-
Split canard refers to the fact that the missile has two sets of canards in close proximity, usually one immediately behind the other. The first canard is fixed while the second set is movable.The advantage of this arrangement is that the first set of canards generates strong, energetic vortices that increase the speed of the airflow over the second set of canards making them more effective. In addition, the vortices delay flow separation and allow the canards to reach higher angles of attack before stalling. This high angle of attack performance gives the missile much greater maneuverability compared to a missile with single canard control. This is precisely the reason why russian AA-11 and python-4 are considered more deadly vis-a-vis AIM9 series.Python's aerodynamic performance is superior to even AA-11- especially itz capability to touch seemingly impossible AoA before stalling.
In the case of BVR though,the wings are static and are usually mounted aft of CG- this provides stability during flight.In the language of mathematics, stability means-
(a) Cmalpha<0
(b) Cnbeta>0
(c) Clbeta<0.
In AIM120,it is the tail that provides the control.
Now i will quickly touch upon the guidance scheme used by various BVR/WVR missiles and that is PROPORTIONAL GUIDANCE ALGORITHM.
13054815_1358945064133715_1644602794_o.jpg

Picture Courtesy:Advanced Control systems ferdinand
In this widely used algorithm,lateral acceleration of the missile is made dependent on the relative velocity of the missile and the rate of change of line of sight angle lambda(i so wish i had latex right now!).
ac=-k*v*lambda'
where v is nothing but the magnitude of the relative velocity between the missile and the target. The job of the integrated GNC loop in the missile is the keep this lambda constant.This will steer the missile on a "collision course" with the target. Guidance and Control(are two very distinct components of a missile) are usually integrated.Guidance system produces the error on which the "control" works.Guidance system comprises of your seeker and allied electronics at the front end of the missile.It not only measures the relative velocity of the missile but also the line of sight angle.The effectiveness of the BVR depends on a lot of parameters.Design of very accurate angle tracker is a challenge. Alongwith proportional guidance, OPTIMAL CONTROL is used to provide the optimal control input to the control surfaces(deflections) that will result in the collision with the target with least possible expenditure of energy.Here the fuel consumption becomes the cost function that needs to be minimized. A set of constraints are applied on the control surfaces and even on state variables.
optimal control strategies is part of my curriculum
 
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Chaffs or Flares don't work on BVR missiles.
They are meant to counter short range Heat seeking or infra red guidance based missiles in close combat.
You can avoid BVR missile in many ways if you are operating a fighter jet.

I am afraid you have been misinformed. The primary purpose of Chaff (small ribbons/pieces of aluminum or similar) is to confuse a RADAR with multiple returns. You can certainly use chaff against a BVR missile which almost always radar guided.

They are less flexible and cannot turn sharp G turns in short duration of time. So when ever the target take rapid G turn at range close to missile, the missile incapable of sustaining such tern simple lose the target.The fuel carried by missile is also limited. If a BVR missile has 100km range then it mean it can travel 100km in straight line. If aircraft take turns and change altitude then BVR missile consume a lot of fuel inorder to do keep the target in sight and in ''locked'' phase. As a result its range reduces considerably. Byy doing so, one can simply ''dry out'' the missile from fuel and hence get rid of it. But it is possible at long range only. Strong ECM pod can track the frequency of transmitter and jam it making the missile to lose target.
The longer the distance missile is fired, greater is the probability that it will miss the target. That's why shooting ONE BVR is just waste of missile and usually two or more BVR are fired in calculated time interval so that even if aircraft manage to dodge the first missile, it will be unable to restore enough energy in ''calculated'' time to dodge the second or third one. This is somethings related to skill of pilot than the advance tech.

To add to what you are saying here is a good link:
https://defenseissues.wordpress.com/2013/08/17/evading-air-to-air-missile/
 
You can certainly use chaff against a BVR missile which almost always radar guided.
I mistakenly mentioned the chaffs.
In most engagements, BVR missiles face the aircraft head on. In such cases the use of Chaffs as countermeasure rule out.
If BVR is shot right behind you such that it face the rare side of your aircraft, then chaffs are sure gonna work..............
 
I am currently working on optimal control strategies
I have an exam for guidance in 3 days too lol. Form what I know optimal control isn't very effective for a maneuvering target (because you can't set up the problem to begin with because you can't say what the target will do). May I ask how you are addressing this? Just curious.
 
Form what I know optimal control isn't very effective for a maneuvering target (because you can't set up the problem to begin with because you can't say what the target will do). May I ask how you are addressing this? Just curious.

@JamD
Damn,even i have exams in couple of days.Our optimal control course is very very rigorous.Wish i could show you my notes!
it is indeed difficult because it is a case wherein tf and x(tf) are both free.You need to consider perturbations in both time(temporal) and x(spatial).As for the control,yes it indeed being used in almost all the missiles in modern era.I am in fact currently working with DYNOPT(planning to switch over to bocop or casadi in python). Direct-sequential algorithm.
My problem is not exactly this,however one can pose any optimization problem as a optimal control problem.Btw,do you maintain a version control on github?

I am afraid you have been misinformed. The primary purpose of Chaff (small ribbons/pieces of aluminum or similar) is to confuse a RADAR with multiple returns. You can certainly use chaff against a BVR missile which almost always radar guided.

Hi dear @JamD
I really doubt if chaffs would work effectively against the active seeker of BVR. The velocity difference between the target and the chaff increases exponentially.Target would render a higher frequency shift vis-a-vis chaff that can be quickly processed in a FFT processor.
Hence a simple frequency discrimination would render the chaffs useless.
The only way sure shot way i can think of right now(there might be other ways as well) is to direct lot of EM energy to the active seeker of the missile through itz side lobes.This will drastically reduce the SNR
 
@JamDBtw,do you maintain a version control on github?
I really doubt if chaffs would work effectively against the active seeker of BVR. The velocity difference between the target and the chaff increases exponentially.Target would render a higher frequency shift vis-a-vis chaff that can be quickly processed in a FFT processor.
Hence a simple frequency discrimination would render the chaffs useless.
The only way sure shot way i can think of right now(there might be other ways as well) is to direct lot of EM energy to the active seeker of the missile through itz side lobes.This will drastically reduce the SNR
I don't even know what github is lol.

Since chaff is employed in the terminal phase anyway that will make discrimination between the target and chaff velocities harder. Sure chaff isn't 100% effective but I wouldn't go as far as to call it 'useless'.

Also I think we shouldn't derail the thread. It is about Shaheen V exercises and not GNC haha.
 
Also I think we shouldn't derail the thread. It is about Shaheen V exercises and not GNC haha.

@JamD
@Tipu7
Yeah i think we shouldnt derail the thread.I was merely highlighting some of the points raised by fellow member in certain depth as i am currently working on these. In fact to your surprise one can run optimal algorithms on cheap raspberry pi as you can see in my profile pic!
These are some of the things i do in my free time-
MPUTEAPOT.png

12919907_1334265743268314_8413341481389836577_n.jpg
 
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Hi,

All you guys are talking about launching the BVR at 100% range---you need to consider the 70-80% range as well which has a much higher kill ratio----.

There is not going to be one missile launched---the SU30 are programmed to launch a salvo of 2-4-6 missiles at one target.

As for the Drama of the Typhoons being beat by the paf pilots---those pilots play weak so that they can determine the capabilities of paf and then correct their approach---and paf spills its bean at every given opportunity to strut around---.
 

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