If Arab spring didn't happen in December 2010, what would Syria be like today?

[AntiLikudYahud]

Similarly Marcos stepped down

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

The Arab Spring brought peace to the Middle East.

No wonder the USA wanted to start one of those in China as well.

 

[500]

I've said many times I'm not a fan of Assad

You are telling his nonsense propaganda.

I've even suggested he step down, but I'll take Assad over aq/isis anyday. Assad can step down tomorrow and nothing will change. The Syrian war transcends even him.

Yep, now its too late and war will continue. But at least will no no more barrel bombs which cause majority of deaths and destruction. Thats very big thing.

Assad is not the one bombing and killing people all over the world it is your bff isis and their ideological bretheren.

ISIS are Iraqi Baath thus are ideological brethren of Assad (Syrian Baath). If you talk about terror attacks of ISIS around the world, thats a drop compare to ocean of murder by Assad. ISIS killed Jews in French Kosher store and Israeli tourists in Turkey. But I dont think their blood worth more than blood of Syrians daily murdered by Assad. And by the way Assad is biggest terror supporter as well. He supported terror against all his neighbors for decades.

You're crocodile tears regarding Syria mean nothing. You're an Israeli Jew so stop talking like you care or know what's best for Syria and Libya even more than the people living in these countries

Actually I talked with Syrians read Syrians writing and thats why I know well what I am saying.

 

[Indos]

The Arab Spring brought peace to the Middle East.

No wonder the USA wanted to start one of those in China as well.

Those Arab leaders are not preparing democracy at all, it is a mistake.

I dont know the context in Tunisia (success story), but for the Indonesian one, the mass media are more free during 1990's. During the 1998 event, government didnt block the media who are all pro democracy. Almost all TV during that time actually belongs to Soeharto children, so not like happening in Egypt/ Syria/Libya, even Soeharto children didnt dare to oppose their own employee or might be has sided with the people as well.

The civil society is united, Islamist and Nationalist leaders are united. So in order to be successful there should be some common factors to play first like relatively free media, civil society unity, wise elite. Actually we have already been in democracy during 1945-1960 and 1955 election is the first free election in Indonesia's history.

So, better to prepare for those factors first before thinking about setting up Arab Spring 2.0.

Turkey is also another good example, but it uses infiltration strategy instead. This is better to avoid civil war.

Myanmar story is also a good example, and it follows Indonesian context in which we still give huge seat in parliament for Military in the beginning of our democracy. I bet Egypt doesnt do this. It need mental transition for the military leadership to embrace democracy.

 

[libertad]

But at least will no no more barrel bombs which cause majority of deaths and destruction. Thats very big thing.

You dont know that for a fact.

are Iraqi Baath thus are ideological brethren of Assad (Syrian Baath). If you talk about terror attacks of ISIS around the world, thats a drop compare to ocean of murder by Assad. ISIS killed Jews in French Kosher store and Israeli tourists in Turkey. But I dont think their blood worth more than blood of Syrians daily murdered by Assad. And by the way Assad is biggest terror supporter as well. He supported terror against all his neighbors for decades.

Another fake correlation is causation argument. In your world Saddam=Baath therefore Saddam=ISIS.

I'm always amazed how you as an Israeli land grabbing thief and occupier are such a moral compass on matters everywhere else, ignoring what's going on in your own country.

 

[Arabian Stallion]

The outcome has already been predicted before

The revolution exist because of the split in the military, not like in Egypt

Every changing moment always deliver high risk, for Indonesian case there was a suspected military split as well. If Soeharto insist to keep the power, Indonesia will likely be different Today.

1998 riots in Indonesia is actually seen as something that is created.and planned.

That quote is sufficient to tell almost the entire story. Had Bashar al-Assad and the Syrian establishment truly cared for their country and people, rather than safekeeping their thrones at all costs (a behavior they have shared and continue to share with numerous past and present dictatorships whether in the Arab world or elsewhere), we would not be discussing the sad case that is Syria currently.

The revolution would never have turned violent, or at least nowhere close to what we have witnessed in the past 5 years, had the regime not reacted in such a brutal fashion to the massive protests that took place all across Syria. Even the Alawites took part in those early protests. In fact the entire country longed-for serious political, social and first and foremost economic reforms LONG before the revolution even began.

If Al-Assad felt so certain of staying in power when the revolution began, why did he feel it was necessary to crush all of those legitimate protests? If Al-Assad had such a strong claim to rule Syria and such massive support from the people, why did over half of the Syrian army deflect and why is his survival depandent on 1000's upon 1000's of foreign Shia fighters from almost every corner of the world? Or the massive aid and support that he receives from foreign countries?

If Al-Assad had committed himself to early reforms and fulfilled the demands of the Syrian people and handled the situation better he might have ruled all of Syria today and moreover a Syria that was not more or less totally destroyed. A Syria whose future existence would not be at stake.

Look at how Ben Ali and Mubarak handled it. They could have tried to stay in power at all costs and who knows maybe Tunisia and Egypt would have looked liked Syria and Libya today? However they chose to leave their throne more or less peacefully. Just as Suharto did.

Those who complain that outside forces meddled in Syria should rather ask themselves why such a thing occurred in the first place? Due to nothing else but the WEAKNESS of the Al-Assad regime. A strong leadership backed by the people would never have experienced what Al-Assad did. It's as simple as that. Does anyone here really believe that a few thousand (at most) people crossing into Syria from Turkey and a few weapons being smuggle into Syria here and there, is the difference between success or failure?
Genuine legitimacy that derives from the people only stands the final test whenever it proves itself at overcoming adversity.

Anyway after 5 years of destructive civil war, most Syrians are simply trying to survive the-day-to-day struggles. From what I can see on social media, through interactions with Syrians, it has become blatantly clear that most have grown tired of all parties and want peace first and foremost. I don't think that any sane Syrian would prefer the Al-Assad regime if he or she could truly chose an alternative of their liking.

People can blame all shorts of parties here but the biggest blame lies in the Al-Assad camp without a single shred of doubt. An absolute ruler of his state must always bear the burden of that states failures.

 

[Indos]

That quote is sufficient to tell almost the entire story. Had Bashar al-Assad and the Syrian establishment truly cared for their country and people, rather than safekeeping their thrones at all costs (a behavior they have shared and continue to share with numerous past and present dictatorships whether in the Arab world or elsewhere), we would not be discussing the sad case that is Syria currently.

The revolution would never have turned violent, or at least nowhere close to what we have witnessed in the past 5 years, had the regime not reacted in such a brutal fashion to the massive protests that took place all across Syria. Even the Alawites took part in those early protests. In fact the entire country wanted serious political, social and first and foremost economical reforms LONG before the revolution even began.

If Al-Assad felt so certain of staying in power when the revolution began, why did he feel it was necessary to crush all of those legitimate protests? If Al-Assad had such a strong claim to rule Syria and such massive support from the people, why did over half of the Syrian army deflect and why is his survival depandent on 1000's upon 1000's of foreign Shia fighters from almost every corner of the world? Or the massive aid and support that he receives from foreign countries?

If Al-Assad had committed himself to early reforms and fulfilled the demands of the Syrian people and handled the situation better he might have ruled all of Syria today and moreover a Syria that was not more or less totally destroyed. A Syria whose future existence would not be at stake.

Look at how Ben Ali and Mubarak handled it. They could have tried to stay in power at all costs and who knows maybe Tunisia and Egypt would have looked liked Syria and Libya today? However they chose to leave their throne more or less peacefully. Just as Suharto did.

Those who complain that outside forces meddled in Syria should rather ask themselves why such a thing occurred in the first place? Due to nobody else but the Al-Assad regime itself and their actions. A strong leadership backed by the people would never have experienced what Al-Assad did.

Yup, I wonder how to fix Syria then, even if Bashar can take Aleppo, there will be guerrilla war across the country and bombing every where.

The region will be the best place for ISIS to flourish.

Bashar step down, and reconciliation afterward. No other way beside this, if Syrian wants to solve this internally.

You know, as a person I feel satisfied if I do something right in the morning and afternoon. Sleep well if I do things right. So doing thing against moral is only torturing ourselves or maybe he wants to be another Iblis who refuses God command for the sake of his own ego. Not a good life definitely.

 

[500]

You dont know that for a fact.

Assad is only one in the world who is dropping barrel bombs on people so its very safe to say hat if we remove him will be no barrel bombs.

Another fake correlation is causation argument. In your world Saddam=Baath therefore Saddam=ISIS.

You accused me of being brother with ISIS without any basis whatsoever. ISIS consists of many former Baath operatives, it brutal autocracy which slaughters Kurds including using chemical weapons like ur friend Assad. Whats the difference?

I'm always amazed how you as an Israeli land grabbing thief and occupier are such a moral compass on matters everywhere else, ignoring what's going on in your own country.

Again u are switching topic when u are stuck. I merely pointed at nonsense in ur arguments. And what is really amazing that u whine about Israel and support crazies butcher dictators in same time.

 

[Assadynasty]

There are only 3 ways for a president to lose power. Death or incapacitation, impeachment, resignation. How would you know who the protestors are? Maybe they are paid by a foreign country. Maybe they are foreigners. No president should ever resign because of a rally.

 

[Serpentine]

The Arab Spring brought peace to the Middle East.

No wonder the USA wanted to start one of those in China as well.

Time for a Chinese spring. US cares about your well-being and wants to save you, give you freedom. such a pity that Chinese people don't see this. Don't believe me? Go ask Afghans, Iraqis, Syrians, Libyans and dozens of other people.

 

[Assadynasty]

Time for a Chinese spring. US cares about your well-being and wants to save you, give you freedom. such a pity that Chinese people don't see this. Don't believe me? Go ask Afghans, Iraqis, Syrians, Libyans and dozens of other people.

China is a super power. The US cannot do a rally in China.

 

[XenoEnsi-14]

Time for a Chinese spring. US cares about your well-being and wants to save you, give you freedom. such a pity that Chinese people don't see this. Don't believe me? Go ask Afghans, Iraqis, Syrians, Libyans and dozens of other people.

That would be American suicide.

 

[Arabian Stallion]

Time for a Chinese spring. US cares about your well-being and wants to save you, give you freedom. such a pity that Chinese people don't see this. Don't believe me? Go ask Afghans, Iraqis, Syrians, Libyans and dozens of other people.

The US can be blamed for events solely in Iraq and Afghanistan. What does the US have to do with the direct or underlining causes behind the "Arab Spring"? Sure, Western, mostly poisonous meddling in the Arab and Muslim world, have often had negative consequences however those actions only amount to a small fragment of a much larger picture.

So in other words whenever or if people in for instance KSA or Iran revolt sometime in the future, it will always be due to a grand American conspiracy? Could it be because people have genuine grievances? Or could it be because they want a bigger say in how their country is run? There are tons of reasons why such a thing could happen. Anywhere.

Also the US, even if they wished to, cannot do anything against China. Inside China that is. Vice versa as well.

Yup, I wonder how to fix Syria then, even if Bashar can take Aleppo, there will be guerrilla war across the country and bombing every where.

The region will be the best place for ISIS to flourish.

Bashar step down, and reconciliation afterward. No other way beside this, if Syrian wants to solve this internally.

You know, as a person I feel satisfied if I do something right in the morning and afternoon. Sleep well if I do things right. So doing thing against moral is only torturing ourselves or maybe he wants to be another Iblis who refuses God command for the sake of his own ego. Not a good life definitely.

Bashar al-Assad's very presence is what fuels the fire of ISIS and similar groups. Once he is gone their legitimacy (among their supporters that is) will be seriously challenged. Look at Germany during WW2. As long as Hitler was alive, even despite how bleak the situation looked liked, you had fanatical loyalists who continued to fight. The second he was dead it was game over. I don't know how he is even capable of sleeping at night knowing what he has done and caused of misery. Not somewhere in Siberia but in his very own country. The most sad thing here is that his regime has no future. He is just prolonging a lost cause for purely selfish reasons. Ironically in his quest of staying in power he is destroying the very foundation of Syria.
He must be surrounded by advisers 24/7 who tell him fables. In many of his speeches he sounds outright insane. I mean as if he was living on a different planet.

Anyway most people here or elsewhere do not care about Syria and its people but only look at the conflict from geopolitical classes. Once things are decided in Syria they will be nowhere to be seen. However most Arabs, for obvious reasons, think differently and that is why most of us have strong opinions about Syria and will continue to be emotionally involved in that conflict even if the remaining world would not care one bit. I will at least. Even if we would not want to invest any time in that conflict the very events in Syria are impacting us directly whether we like it or not.

However you should know that hardly any Arab regimes in power currently reflect the views of the Arab masses or our intentions or future goals. That is why the situation is as it is currently. Goes for most of the Muslim world as well. For instance when some douchebag from Kuwait says that his country cannot accept any Syrian refugees he is not talking in the name of his people but only for himself, blind regime followers and selfish people.

 

[libertad]

Assad is only one in the world who is dropping barrel bombs on people so its very safe to say hat if we remove him will be no barrel bombs.

And ISIS and rebels are shelling and suicide bombing civilians.

You accused me of being brother with ISIS without any basis whatsoever. ISIS consists of many former Baath operatives, it brutal autocracy which slaughters Kurds including using chemical weapons like ur friend Assad. Whats the difference?

*sigh* i'm getting tired of talking in circles with you.

Again u are switching topic when u are stuck. I merely pointed at nonsense in ur arguments. And what is really amazing that u whine about Israel and support crazies butcher dictators in same time.

I don't support any dictators, I support their right to defend their countries against foreign uninvited interveners. You of course disagree so there is really no point talking in circles.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Time for a Chinese spring. US cares about your well-being and wants to save you, give you freedom. such a pity that Chinese people don't see this. Don't believe me? Go ask Afghans, Iraqis, Syrians, Libyans and dozens of other people.

Democracy bombs and cruise missiles.

The sad thing is that there is nothing wrong with democracy as a system, but the fact that the USA uses it as a "political weapon" (and as justification for numerous bloody wars) has made it sound dirty, like someone is about to be bombed or killed.